Capital Economics Sees Philippine Growth Hitting Post-Pandemic Low of 3% Amid Corruption Scandal, Mideast War
Capital Economics projects Philippine GDP growth slipping to 3% in 2024, the lowest level since the pandemic, as a multi‑billion‑peso (≈ $50 million) flood‑control corruption scandal and the ongoing Middle East war dampen confidence. First‑quarter growth slowed to 2.8% and the peso fell to a record‑low near ₱62 per dollar, intensifying a current‑account deficit. Inflation hit 7.2% in April, the highest in three years, prompting the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to lift its policy rate to 4.5% and signal further hikes toward 5% by 2026. The think‑tank warns that tighter monetary policy and weaker external demand will keep growth below the government’s 5‑6% target.
How Trump’s War on Iran Is Jeopardising Asia’s Remittance Lifeline
The U.S.–Israeli war on Iran is destabilising the Gulf’s migrant‑labour engine, prompting a wave of departures that threatens both host economies and the billions of dollars in remittances they generate. Around one million Indian workers have already fled, and Oxford...
Security Escalation Around Hormuz Triggers Fresh Uncertainty for Trade Flows
Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighted by reported U.S. strikes on Iranian sites and drone activity near Kuwait, have prompted Iran to force four vessels to turn back and led the U.S. to sanction the Persian Gulf Strait...
The Leakage and Lies Keeping Indonesia’s Rupiah Weak
Indonesia’s massive trade surpluses have failed to strengthen the rupiah because exporters routinely under‑invoice and use aggressive transfer pricing to shift profits offshore. Government estimates place cumulative revenue loss at roughly $908 billion (about 15,400 trillion rupiah) from 1991‑2024, with a single...
Asia Week Ahead: Korea and Taiwan Inflation Data and China Manufacturing Figures
South Korea’s May consumer price index is projected at 3.0% YoY amid higher fuel and service costs, while chip exports are expected to surge 52% YoY, bolstering overall trade. Taiwan’s CPI is forecast at 2.2% YoY, potentially the first breach...
SARB Raises Repo Rate To 7%
The South African Reserve Bank lifted its repo rate by 25 basis points to 7% on May 29, 2026, after four of six Monetary Policy Committee members voted for the increase. The move reflects heightened inflation risks from a protracted...
RBI Warns Prolonged West Asia Conflict Could Hit India’s Economy
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) flagged a prolonged West Asia conflict as the chief downside risk to India’s growth outlook, even as it projected real GDP expanding 6.9% in FY 2026‑27, down from 7.6% for FY 2025‑26. The central bank warned...
Stronger Growth in Japan Supports June Rate Hike Despite Softer Inflation
Tokyo's consumer price index eased to 1.4% year‑on‑year in May, undercutting the 1.6% market consensus, thanks to temporary utility waivers, a gasoline price cap and lower education fees. Despite the headline slowdown, service‑sector prices such as housing (+1.3%) and recreation...
India Steers Boat Through a Risky Channel Between War Clouds and El Nino
The Reserve Bank of India’s annual report warns that geopolitics, not interest rates, now dominate the global growth outlook, with IMF forecasts slipping to 3.1% in 2026. India still expects robust 6.9% GDP growth in 2026‑27, backed by stronger banks,...
German Import Prices Climb Further in April as US-Iran Conflict Continues to Reverberate
German import prices surged 5.3% year‑on‑year in April, the strongest rise since January 2023. The jump was led by a 31% increase in energy costs and a 7.8% rise in intermediate goods, especially non‑ferrous metals and fertilizers. Even after stripping...
Spain’s Economic Growth Test
Spain is emerging as one of Europe’s top performers in 2026, driven by record tourism and a revised GDP growth forecast of 2.3% for the year. The Bank of Spain warned that energy‑related shocks could temper growth, but the country...
‘It Feels Unfair’: The Britons Struggling to Get a Mortgage Since Iran War Began
The Iran‑Israel conflict that erupted in February has pushed UK mortgage rates higher, derailing many first‑time buyers. Fixed‑rate offers that were 4.18% in early February have climbed to 5.22%, lifting monthly payments from about £2,600 ($3,250) to £3,100 ($3,875). Prospective...
Europe Is Edging Closer to a Trade War With China. Here’s Why.
European officials are growing alarmed by a flood of cheap Chinese goods that threaten the bloc’s manufacturing base. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas likened the dependence on China to a disease that may require painful "chemotherapy" measures. Rising imports...
How to Win a Trade War, with Paul Krugman and Chad Bown
Nobel laureate Paul Krugman joins Soumaya Keynes to discuss his new book, “How to Win a Trade War,” with co‑author Chad Bown. The FT Economics Show episode explores how fragile domestic politics shape trade conflicts and extracts lessons from China’s...
The Rise of Broker Power: How China Became the Indispensable Mediator in the U.S. Iran Conflict : OPED
China has emerged as the indispensable broker in the U.S.–Iran conflict, leveraging its economic ties with Tehran, Gulf-wide diplomatic reach, and willingness to safeguard Iran’s enriched uranium. The war, costing $29 billion and losing 42 U.S. aircraft, has stalled American objectives,...
Piyush Goyal Engages with over 50 Industry Leaders in New York to Deepen India-US Trade
India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal held a closed‑door roundtable in New York with more than 50 senior U.S. business leaders, emphasizing expanded trade, investment, innovation and supply‑chain cooperation. The event, co‑hosted by the Indian Consulate and the US‑India Strategic Partnership Forum, signaled...
Dollar Faces Renewed Strength if US-Iran Talks Fail, MUFG Warns
MUFG Bank analysts warn that a collapse of the US‑Iran cease‑fire talks could reignite dollar strength. Prolonged conflict would keep energy prices high, feeding inflation and prompting Federal Reserve officials to adopt a more hawkish tone. A tighter link between...
23rd China-ASEAN Expo to Unveil New Business Opportunities
China’s 23rd China‑ASEAN Expo will be held in Nanning from Sept 17‑21, coinciding with the activation of the CAFTA 3.0 upgrade protocol. The event will spotlight digital‑economy and green development zones, an AI‑driven matchmaking platform, and the 134.2‑km Pinglu Canal as a...
A Credible and Safe Path to Chinese Financial Liberalization
China seeks deeper global market access and renminbi internationalization, yet fears the instability that rapid capital‑account liberalization has caused in other emerging economies. Traditional debates frame the choice as either faster openness with higher risk or cautious control with limited...
Bank of England Bailey, Mann and Greene Due to Speak at Conferences: Rates, Crypto
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak in Reykjavik on Friday, where markets will scrutinize any clues about the pace of future rate cuts amid stubborn services inflation. Hawk MPC member Catherine Mann is slated to appear at the...
NZ Business Confidence Bounces in May but Middle East Cost Squeeze Persists
ANZ New Zealand business confidence climbed 21 points in May, reaching +10 after a dip to –10.6 in April, yet it remains well below the pre‑Middle‑East‑conflict baseline. Manufacturing posted the strongest rebound at +26, while retail and construction activity stayed in...
Treasury Launches Tariff Review as Food Price Shocks Get “Baked In” To UK System
The UK Treasury has opened a consultation to suspend tariffs on more than 100 food and household items, aiming to blunt rising consumer prices. Research by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit shows that food price spikes tend to linger,...
‘Transitory Euphoria’: South Korea’s Strong Economic Outlook Masks Key Hurdles
South Korea’s central bank lifted its 2024 growth forecast to 2.6% after the economy posted a 1.7% quarterly surge, driven largely by AI‑related semiconductor exports and supplementary government spending. Inflation expectations were nudged up to 2.7% as global supply shocks...
Putin Visit to Kazakhstan Fails to Clarify Nuclear Power Plant Financing Issue
During a state visit on May 28, Vladimir Putin signed an agreement with Kazakhstan on the “basic principles and conditions” for building the country’s first nuclear power plant on Lake Balkhash. The project is priced at $16.4 billion, with Russia expected to...
As China’s Surpluses Become Unbearable, the EU Is Edging Toward Its Own Section 301
The EU’s goods‑trade deficit with China surged to roughly $436 billion in 2022, while Chinese overcapacity continues to flood European markets. Brussels plans to roll out new economic‑security tools by September 2026, including tighter public‑procurement rules that limit any single supplier to...
U.S. Targets Iran Shipping Network With New Sanctions
The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control announced a new sanctions round targeting a global network of shipping firms, tanker operators and commercial intermediaries linked to Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical trades. Entities in Hong Kong, the UAE, India, Qatar, Singapore,...
CEPA Upgrade Talks: India, South Korea Agree to Address Widening Trade Deficit
India and South Korea agreed to tackle their widening trade deficit during the 12th round of CEPA upgrade talks, creating sub‑groups on digital trade, supply‑chain and strategic industrial collaboration. Indian exports to Korea rose 3.3% to $6 billion, while imports grew...
India, Canada to Skip Sensitive Sectors in Trade Talks: Piyush Goyal
India and Canada agreed to sideline sensitive sectors as they push the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) toward completion by the end of 2026. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal emphasized a pragmatic approach, focusing on low‑ hanging fruit and convergence points....
ITDP’s Response to the Iran Energy Crisis
Closing the Strait of Hormuz has driven oil prices up about 60% and natural‑gas prices up 100% in recent months, exposing the transport sector to soaring fuel costs. The disruption highlights the strait as a critical chokepoint whose future closures...
EU to Discuss Potential Restrictions on Chinese Imports Amid Fears of Overreliance
EU commissioners are set to meet on Friday to explore new restrictions on Chinese imports, a move prompted by what officials dub “China Shock 2.0.” The surge in Chinese goods, from electric vehicles to medical components, is making some EU products...
US Inflation Rose at Fastest Pace in Three Years in April as Iran War Hikes up Prices
U.S. inflation accelerated to its fastest pace in three years in April, driven by a sharp rise in energy costs linked to the Iran‑Israel conflict. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index jumped 3.8% year‑on‑year, while core PCE rose 3.3%,...
The Double China Shock: How Beijing Is Disrupting Both Developing and Advanced Economies
China’s 15th Five‑Year‑Plan keeps low‑tech sectors like textiles alive while it pushes advanced tech, creating a "double China shock" that hits both developing and advanced economies. The country now holds over 35% of global textile market share and saw double‑digit...
The $150B US Treasury Drain and the End of the “Ample Reserve” Buffer
Michael Kramer warns that between May 28 and June 5, 2026 the U.S. Treasury will pull roughly $150 billion of liquidity from the market as new debt settlements outpace maturities. The Treasury General Account is swelling toward $1 trillion, leaving private bank reserves depleted....
Americans Can’t Afford Trump’s Economy
President Donald Trump’s economic agenda is accelerating inflation while wages lag, leaving many Americans unable to afford basic goods. The article attributes higher prices to tariffs, energy policy shifts, and a large‑scale deportation program that tightens the labor market. It...
Hormuz Closure Forces Global Jet Fuel Trade Into Costly Rerouting Scramble
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted roughly 400,000 barrels per day of jet‑fuel exports, pushing European spot prices above $200 a barrel. Refineries and traders have rerouted supplies from the United States, Nigeria, India and other regions, resulting...
MacroVoices #534 Dr. Pippa Malmgren: Superpower War or Superpower Hug?
Dr. Pippa Malmgren, a former Bush administration economist and tech‑industry advisor, joins Erik Townsend on MacroVoices to dissect the convergence of geopolitics, energy and artificial intelligence. The episode examines how the Iran conflict could reshape global energy markets and U.S....
Iran War Lifts a Second Inflation Reading to Highest Level Since 2023
U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation jumped 3.8% year‑over‑year in April, the fastest rise since May 2023, while core inflation climbed to 3.3%, a multi‑year high. The surge is linked to supply disruptions from the Iran war, which has tightened global...
AfDB Economic Outlook '26: Middle East War to Take Toll on Growth
The African Development Bank’s 2026 Economic Outlook warns that the war in the Middle East will drag real GDP per‑capita growth down to 1.9% this year, well short of the 3.5% needed for inclusive growth. While Central Africa may benefit...
India’s Engineering Goods Exports Rise 8.8% in April Despite Fall in Shipments to UAE, Saudi Arabia
India’s engineering goods exports jumped 8.78% year‑on‑year to $10.35 billion in April 2026, buoyed by stronger shipments to the United States, United Kingdom and Germany. Exports to West Asia fell sharply, with the UAE down 37.1% and Saudi Arabia down 9.7%...
RBNZ Governor Connects with Hawke's Bay on Monetary Policy
RBNZ Governor Dr Breman visited Hawke’s Bay to discuss the May 2026 Monetary Policy Statement, confirming the official cash rate (OCR) remains at 2.25 percent. She highlighted global uncertainty, supply‑chain disruptions and higher input costs, noting weaker growth and near‑term inflation pressures from...
France Calls for UK Inclusion in ‘Made in EU’ Rules
France has signaled a policy shift, saying it will lobby Brussels to let the United Kingdom join the EU’s forthcoming “Made in EU” rules under the Industrial Accelerator Act. The legislation ties subsidies and public‑procurement eligibility to a high share...
Trump Is Pushing Canada and Mexico Towards China
Former President Donald Trump is actively lobbying Canada and Mexico to deepen economic ties with China, arguing that the U.S.-China rivalry is harming North American interests. He has organized private meetings, used media appearances, and floated ideas for joint infrastructure...
Revisiting the Economic Cost of Bank Capital: What Has Changed Since 2017?
A new study extending de‑Ramon and Straughan’s 2017 work uses data through 2024 to re‑examine how higher bank capital ratios affect lending costs. The analysis confirms that a one‑percentage‑point rise in risk‑based capital raises corporate loan spreads by roughly 7‑12...
Tariffs Return: What UK Fashion Brands May Be Overlooking in the US
UK fashion brands selling in the United States are confronting a resurgence of tariffs that were re‑imposed in early 2026. Many firms have filed for tariff‑refunds after over‑paying duties, only to discover a labyrinthine claims process that delays cash flow...
Analysts’ Views: Forecasters Dispute Market View of Likely Policy at Fed and Bank of England
Forecasters are openly challenging the market consensus on upcoming monetary policy moves at both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. While equity markets price in an aggressive Fed rate‑cut cycle this year, several economists argue the central bank...
Trump Tariffs Hammer Canadian Lumber — US Builders Face 30% Price Surge
U.S. homebuilders are confronting the steepest framing lumber price surge in years as Canadian softwood imports dropped 24% in Q1 2026, driven by a combined 45% tariff and duty regime. The price gap widened, with Canadian lumber averaging $165 per...
BSP Gains Room to Further Hike Policy Rate – Nomura
Nomura Global Markets Research says the Philippines' rebound in government spending in April gives the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) more leeway to raise rates amid war‑driven inflation. April spending jumped 11.1% to about ₱505.4 billion (≈$9.1 billion), producing a ₱31.4 billion (≈$565 million)...
Margins, Mark-Ups and Consumer Prices: Theory, Measurement and Implications
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s May 2026 bulletin explains that profit margins are a useful but indirect lens on inflation, because margin movements reflect underlying demand, cost or competition shocks rather than driving price changes directly. In early 2025, softer retail demand...
Fed's Kashkari Says Inflation Much Too High and Remains His Top Priority
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that inflation remains his top priority, noting that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He warned that prolonged price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations, forcing the Fed...
Index Providers Reshape Asian Financial Markets with Exacting Standards
In April, FTSE Russell added South Korea to its World Government Bond Index, prompting foreign investors to pour roughly KRW 15.1 trillion (about $10.1 billion) into Korean sovereign debt. The move follows regulatory reforms that lifted the market’s accessibility rating, and analysts expect...