What China Can Learn From Japan About Escaping Deflation
Japan has finally emerged from its two‑decade deflationary slump through a mix of aggressive monetary easing, targeted fiscal stimulus, and structural reforms. China, meanwhile, is slipping back into deflation as its property sector falters and external shocks, such as the Gulf conflict, dampen demand. The article argues that China can avoid Japan’s prolonged stagnation by adopting a calibrated policy response and modernising its labour and technology base. It highlights the divergent paths the two economies have taken since the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
Britain’s Politicians Need to Worry Less About the Bond Markets – and More About the Bank of England | Daniela...
British politicians are urged to shift focus from bond‑market panic to the Bank of England’s role in shaping borrowing costs. The BoE has sold roughly £134 bn ($167 bn) of gilts since 2022, adding a 0.7 percentage‑point “Bailey premium” to UK debt rates,...
BoE's Taylor: Probably Correct to Expect Need for Rate Hikes Under BoE's Scenario C
Bank of England chief economist Huw Taylor said Scenario C, the most adverse outlook, likely requires rate hikes to 5.25% by early 2027 amid a prolonged energy shock with oil above $120 per barrel. He noted that current policy is already 100...
Chancellor Rachel Reeves Statement to Parliament
Chancellor Rachel Reeves told Parliament that the UK posted the fastest G7 growth in Q1 2024 at 0.6%, beating OBR forecasts and prompting an IMF upgrade. She highlighted a £20 billion ($25 billion) reduction in borrowing, a faster‑than‑expected fall in inflation and a...
US Firms Commit over USD 60 Bn Investment in Last 6 Months: Piyush Goyal
Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal announced that U.S. companies have pledged more than $60 billion in investment in India over the past six months, highlighted by large data‑centre projects from Amazon and Google. He emphasized India’s trusted IP regime, deep talent pool...
What Happens to Oil if Iran Permanently Taxes Hormuz Traffic?
Analysts say a permanent tax on Strait of Hormuz traffic would likely cause a modest rise in crude prices and slightly lower shipping margins. Exporters would seek alternate routes, spurring pipeline projects through the Red Sea, Syria, Iraq and Turkey....
What a Kevin Warsh-Led Fed Could Mean for the Big Bank Stocks
Kevin Warsh has taken over the Federal Reserve, signaling a shift toward aggressive balance‑sheet reduction and deregulation. While his interest‑rate stance mirrors Jerome Powell’s, Warsh plans to sell Treasury and mortgage holdings, pulling liquidity from the banking system. He also...
Stocks Slip Before the Open as Oil Rises on U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Uncertainty, PMI Data in Focus
U.S. equity futures opened lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.40% and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.55%, as oil prices surged over 2% on fresh Iran‑related geopolitical tension. The rise in WTI crude pushed the 10‑year Treasury yield to 4.62%, reviving...
War Weighs on Global Growth With Inflation Worries Intensifying
Global growth is losing steam as the war‑driven energy crunch pushes inflation higher for a third month. Purchasing‑manager surveys show manufacturing contraction across Europe, with France and Germany leading the decline, while the UK’s output fell for the first time...
RBI Rate Hikes to Start in June, Says Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered economists expect India’s central bank to begin tightening as early as June, with a total 50 basis‑point increase split between June and August. The move is driven by rising inflation risks from higher crude oil prices, global yield...
EU Cuts Growth Forecasts as Iran War Drives up Inflation
The European Commission lowered its 2024 growth projection to 0.2%, down from 0.7%, while raising the inflation outlook to 5.3% from 4.9%. The downgrade reflects heightened energy costs and supply‑chain disruptions linked to the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict. Analysts warn that...
War Weighs on Global Growth With Inflation Worries Intensifying
Global growth is losing steam as a war‑induced energy crunch pushes inflation higher for a third consecutive month. Purchasing‑manager surveys from Australia to Europe show manufacturing activity slowing or contracting in May, with the sole exception of the United Kingdom....
Euro-Zone Growth Is Buckling Under Weight of War Impact
The European Commission has sharply lowered its euro‑area growth forecast to 0.9% for 2026, down from 1.4% last year and below the November consensus. Inflation is set to accelerate to the fastest rate since 2023 as energy costs surge amid...
The Other China Shock
The article examines the emerging "other China shock," where rising wages and tighter regulations in China are prompting multinational manufacturers to relocate labor‑intensive production to neighboring Asian economies such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Mexico. It traces the historical pattern of...
GBP/CHF Rebounds as UK Fiscal Worst-Case Fears Fade, Head-and-Shoulders Bottom Forming?
Sterling rallied this week as fears of a UK fiscal crisis receded, driven by Andy Burnham’s market‑friendly remarks and an IMF upgrade to the 2026 growth outlook. The softer political tone and lower oil prices trimmed the UK risk premium,...
Euro-Zone Business Activity Shrinks at Fastest Since 2023
Euro‑area business activity contracted sharply in May, with the S&P Global composite PMI dropping to 47.5 from 48.8, the fastest slowdown in 2½ years. Manufacturing held steady thanks to precautionary inventory builds, while the services sector fell sharply. Input‑cost and price inflation...
Starmer Crisis and Iran Shock Combine to Shrink UK Private Sector
British private sector output fell for the first time in over a year as the S&P Global PMI slipped to 48.5 in May, well below the 51.6 forecast and the 50 growth threshold. The decline reflects a perfect storm of...
UK Agrees £3.7bn Trade Deal with Six Gulf States
The United Kingdom has sealed a trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council’s six members—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—valued at roughly £3.7 bn (about $4.6 bn). The pact eliminates an estimated £580 m ($725 m) in annual tariffs...
China’s Yuan Hits 3-Year High as Global Banks Issue Bullish Forecasts
China’s central bank set the yuan’s daily reference rate at its strongest level since early 2023, pushing the currency to a three‑year high against the US dollar. Global banks are now issuing bullish forecasts, expecting further appreciation as China’s monetary...
BOJ Should Raise Policy Rate at Appropriate Pace, Says Board Member Junko Koeda
Bank of Japan board member Junko Koeda signaled support for raising the policy rate, noting that underlying inflation could exceed 2% and that a hike may be appropriate as early as the June 16 meeting. She voted with the majority...
Australia Jobless Rate Hits Highest Since 2021 in April
Australia’s unemployment rate climbed to 4.5% in April, the highest level since 2021, as the labour market showed its first signs of cooling. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a loss of 18,600 jobs, reversing March’s 17,900‑job gain, while full‑time...
Indonesian President Announces Plan to Centralize Control of Key Commodity Exports
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto announced a plan to place Indonesia’s key commodity exports—palm oil, thermal coal and nickel—under direct state control. A new sovereign‑wealth‑backed enterprise, Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia, will own 99% of the export entity and exporters must deposit all...
Europe Has Its Own Version of the Inflation Reduction Act That Could Impact US Manufacturers
The European Union’s Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA), unveiled in March 2026, embeds "Made in EU" and low‑carbon requirements into public procurement and state‑aid rules, effectively turning market access into an industrial‑policy tool. Unlike the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, which subsidizes...
Most Fed Officials See Rate Hikes if Inflation Stays High, Minutes Show
Fed minutes from the April 28‑29 meeting reveal that a majority of officials would consider raising rates if inflation remains persistently above the 2% target. While the policy statement hinted at a possible cut, four voting members dissented, with three...
Trump’s War Is Wrecking Trump’s Economy
The United States’ war on Iran has triggered the largest post‑World War II energy shock, sending oil prices from $58 to about $100 a barrel and driving an 18% jump in energy costs. Inflation has risen to 3.8% year‑on‑year, with...
The Global Push for Local-Currency Cross-Border Payments Is Intensifying
The adoption of instant payment systems (IPS) and ISO 20022 messaging is accelerating worldwide, with more than 100 nations now operating fast‑payment networks. Regional projects such as China’s CIPS, the BIS‑led Nexus hub, ASEAN’s cross‑border QR framework, Brazil’s Pix links, and...
Economics Lessons From Home Depot
Home Depot, the world’s largest DIY retailer, has long acted as a proxy for the U.S. housing market. Its sales slumped sharply in 2007, foreshadowing the subsequent housing crash, while the chain’s revenues surged after the COVID‑19 pandemic as homeowners...
Copper and Critical Metals: The West's Newest Frontline
The Investing News Network podcast highlighted copper’s evolution into a national‑security commodity, driven by AI‑intensive data centers, electric‑vehicle growth, and power‑grid modernization. Phil Ehr, a former Navy commander and NovaRed Mining advisor, warned that geopolitical instability—exemplified by the Strait of...
Spiking Yields Are Spooking the Stock Market. These Equities Win when Rates Rise
Piper Sandler flagged a handful of equities that could thrive as U.S. Treasury yields climb, noting that higher rates are now a primary market risk. The 10‑year Treasury sits near 4.6% and the 30‑year topped 5.1%, levels not seen since...
AI Boom Adds Pressure to Warsh’s Bond-Market Bind
Kevin Warsh is set to assume a key role as bond yields climb amid a war‑driven price shock and an AI‑fuelled investment surge. BNP Paribas chief economist James Egelhof warns that AI‑related capital expenditures are inflating bond‑market financing and could reignite...
Europe Is Losing the Energy Security Battle to China
The Iran war has forced Europe to spend an extra $28 billion on fossil‑fuel imports, highlighting a widening energy‑security gap with China. China already derives about 30% of its energy from electricity and controls key clean‑energy supply chains, while the EU...
Bond Tremors From Washington to London to Tokyo Upend Asia
Bond markets worldwide are under pressure as yields spike in the United States, United Kingdom and Japan, driven by geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices and persistent inflation. The 30‑year US Treasury yield jumped to 5.18%, the highest level since 2007,...
Hormuz Crisis Shows Europe More Exposed to Gas Price Shocks than Before Ukraine War, Study Finds
A new study by researchers from Vienna University of Technology, Oxford, NTNU and Paris Dauphine finds that Europe’s diversification away from Russian gas has left the bloc more vulnerable to gas‑price shocks. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed...
EU Finalizes Terms of Trade Deal With U.S.
The European Union approved a revised version of its trade agreement with the United States after a five‑hour parliamentary debate. The deal now contains a safeguard that lets the EU suspend the pact if U.S. tariffs on European steel and...
Xi and Putin Warn Against Trump’s Golden Dome Missile Plans
China’s President Xi Jinping and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin jointly condemned U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed Golden Dome missile‑defence shield, calling the ground‑ and space‑based interceptor system a threat to global strategic stability. They also rebuked Washington for allowing the last...
India’s GDP Revisions Explained: What Changed and Why It Matters
India’s Ministry of Statistics shifted the GDP base year from 2011‑12 to 2022‑23, the first overhaul in a decade. The revision lowered total GDP estimates by 2.9% for 2022‑23 and by 3.8% for each of the next two fiscal years,...
Consumers Face Double Blow as Inflation Rises and Rate Fears Return
South Africa's consumer inflation accelerated to 4% in April, returning to the midpoint of the Reserve Bank’s 3‑6% target after months of softer readings. The surge is attributed mainly to rising global fuel prices and a weakening rand, rather than...
Strait of Hormuz Conflict Threatens Global Food Prices as FAO Warns Time Is Running Out
The Food and Agriculture Organization warns that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global food price crisis within six to twelve months. The chokepoint handles a large share of oil and fertilizer shipments, and its disruption...
Bank Indonesia and Bank Negara Malaysia Sign MoU to Strengthen Central Bank Cooperation
Bank Indonesia and Bank Negara Malaysia signed a memorandum of understanding on May 11, 2026 to deepen bilateral cooperation across monetary policy, financial stability, macro‑prudential oversight, and payment‑system development. The MoU creates a formal framework for regular dialogue, information exchange,...
Inflation Falls to 2.8% but Experts Warn Respite Will Be ‘Short-Lived’
UK consumer price inflation fell to 2.8% in the 12 months to April 2026, the lowest rate since early 2022. The drop reflects easing food and services price pressures, while energy costs have remained volatile. Data released on May 20 show the...
Press Release: G20 Goals for Enhancing Cross-Border Payments
The G20, together with the Financial Stability Board, has set a 2027 roadmap to overhaul cross‑border payments, aiming for faster settlement, lower costs, greater transparency, and broader access. By the end of 2027, 75% of payments should reach recipients within...
Inflation Spikes Higher – and the Worst Is Still to Come
South Africa’s headline consumer inflation surged to 4% year‑on‑year in April, up from 3.1% in March and beating the Reuters forecast of 3.9%. The jump reflects the early impact of the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict on global energy prices, with the government...
UK Inflation Eases More than Expected to 2.8%, Led by Lower Electricity and Gas Bills – Business Live
UK consumer price inflation eased to 2.8% in April, the biggest drop in months, as lower electricity and gas bills offset other pressures. House prices remained flat at about £268,000 while private rents climbed 3.5% year‑on‑year to £1,381, underscoring a...
Germany Urged to Stop Admiring Beijing and Wake up to ‘China Shock 2.0’
The Centre for European Reform warned that a "China Shock 2.0" is already reshaping Germany’s industrial landscape, as China’s surplus with Germany surged from $12 bn to $25 bn in 2025, creating a $94 bn trade imbalance. The think‑tank links the widening gap to...
Is the Bond Market Signaling Danger? Or Opportunity?
Bond yields have surged past the 5% mark for the first time since 2007, highlighted by a 30‑year Treasury auction on May 13 that demanded a 5.046% rate. In the secondary market, 30‑year Treasury yields have climbed to just under 5.2%....
Official Statistics: Forecasts for the UK Economy: May 2026
HM Treasury published the May 2026 edition of its monthly "Forecasts for the UK economy" comparison, a 27‑page PDF (8.74 MB) that aggregates short‑term forecasts for fiscal years 2025‑26 and 2026‑27 and medium‑term projections through 2030. The compilation draws on a selection of independent...
Stocks Slump as Marcos Flags Growth Risks, Tolerates Food Price Hikes
Philippine stocks slipped modestly as President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. warned that persistent global supply disruptions could push the economy toward stagflation. The benchmark PSEi closed at 5,893.40, down 0.06%, with thin trading of 1.24 billion shares valued at roughly $102 million. In a...
The Iran War Is Destroying Oil Demand. Could It Also Spark a Shift to Clean Energy?
The Iran‑War‑triggered oil shock has pushed U.S. gasoline above $4.50 per gallon, a 40% jump since February, prompting 44% of adults to curb driving and turn to public transit, rideshares and electric‑hybrid vehicles. The International Energy Agency now projects a...
Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour: War, Oil Shocks and Trade Restrictions - Geoeconomics and Implications for Asia
The speech highlighted how the Ukraine war, the Middle‑East conflict and sweeping trade restrictions have created the largest oil supply shock in history, pushing Brent above $150 per barrel and tightening energy and fertilizer markets across Asia. These overlapping shocks...
Jorgovanka Tabaković: Overview of Recent Monetary and Macroeconomic Trends in Serbia
Jorgovanka Tabaković presented Serbia's latest Inflation Report, outlining current macroeconomic conditions and the central bank's policy response. She highlighted that global uncertainty remains high, with the recent Middle East conflict generating a sharp energy shock that pushes inflation expectations upward....