As Trade War with China Looms, How Can the EU Defend Itself?
The European Commission is preparing a suite of trade defenses as China’s surplus with the EU‑27 hit $113 billion in the first four months of 2026, up $22 billion from a year earlier, while the bloc’s deficit reached roughly $392 billion. Options on the table include a sourcing rule that caps any single supplier at 30‑40%, new tariffs and quotas on steel, anti‑dumping duties on chemicals, and the last‑resort Anti‑Coercion Instrument. A debate on these measures is slated for 29 May, but approval will hinge on a qualified majority of member states, many of which remain split over how hard‑line to be with Beijing.
IMF Raises UK Growth Forecast and Backs Reeves’s Deficit Reduction Plans; Bonds Recover After Sell-Off – as It Happened
The International Monetary Fund has raised its 2026 UK GDP growth projection to 1.0% from 0.8%, citing strong pre‑war momentum and a robust first‑quarter performance. The upgrade comes alongside praise for Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ balanced approach to deficit reduction and...
Inflation Uptick Is Starting to Send Sell Signals to Stock Bulls
Wall Street strategists say the post‑earnings rally is losing steam as inflation and higher oil prices revive rate‑hike concerns under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. A sharp sell‑off hit the most rate‑sensitive stocks, with the Russell 2000 down 2.4% and unprofitable...
Oil Prices Climb and Bonds Falter as Iran War Raises Inflation Fears
Oil markets swung sharply on Monday as Brent crude slipped to about $108 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell to roughly $103, erasing earlier gains sparked by heightened geopolitical risk. The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield steadied just under...
Oil Shock Stokes Inflation Fears and Dims Hopes for Fed Rate Relief
Oil prices surged past $110 per barrel for Brent and $100 for WTI as Middle East tensions, including drone strikes and a closed Strait of Hormuz, intensified. The spike pushed 10‑year U.S. Treasury yields to a 15‑month high of 4.63%...
UK Growth Forecast Upgraded by IMF but Risks Remain
The International Monetary Fund upgraded its outlook for the United Kingdom, projecting that inflation will fall back to the 2% target by the end of 2027 and that the Bank of England can keep its policy rate at 3.75% for...
China and Russia Hold Trade Expo as Putin and Trump Visits Draw Global Attention
China launched the 10th China‑Russia Expo in Harbin as President Vladimir Putin prepares to visit Beijing, following President Donald Trump’s recent trip to the city. The event features major Chinese energy and infrastructure firms and a meeting of an intergovernmental...
The Lasting Economic Impacts of War
A new cross‑country dataset covering 115 wars shows that conflict triggers deep, persistent economic damage. Real GDP falls about 12% over ten years, with investment contracting 13% and trade shrinking sharply. Government revenues collapse 14% while spending stays flat, forcing...
Ayman M Al-Sayari: Speech - Imbalances Discussion Session
Ayman M. Al‑Sayari highlighted a renewed focus on global imbalances, warning that excessive gaps can trigger disorderly trade and financial adjustments. He urged distinguishing structural drivers from policy distortions and emphasized the need for better data and country‑specific analysis, especially...
The Root of Today’s Global Imbalances
The article argues that today’s global imbalances stem from divergent domestic saving‑investment ratios amplified by geopolitical rivalry, technology competition, and volatile capital flows. The United States now runs a sizable current‑account deficit while China has reverted to large surpluses, reviving...
Kazuyuki Masu: Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan
Kazuyuki Masu, a Bank of Japan policy board member, addressed the Kagoshima Japan Association of Corporate Executives on May 14, 2026, outlining recent trends in Japanese economic activity and price dynamics. He noted that growth has moderated and inflation remains...
Fatih Karahan: Recent Economic and Financial Developments in Turkey
Turkey’s central bank released its second 2026 Inflation Report, noting that headline consumer inflation surged to 32.4% year‑over‑year in April, driven by sharp energy and food price spikes linked to the U.S./Israel‑Iran conflict. After a 100‑basis‑point cut to 37% in...
Why America Can’t Walk Away From the Gulf Economies
In May 2025 President Donald Trump toured Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi, unveiling a slate of high‑profile agreements that promised trillions of Gulf sovereign‑wealth dollars for U.S. projects and a shift toward technology‑driven partnerships. The momentum was shattered in February when...
Michael S Barr: Efficient and Effective Central Banking - Beyond the Balance Sheet
In a recent speech, Michael S. Barr warned that efforts to shrink the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet could backfire, weakening bank resilience and market functioning. He emphasized that the Fed’s footprint extends beyond balance‑sheet size to its roles in bank...
IGOV: Bond Sell-Off On Prolonged Energy Issues Is Global As Expected
The iShares International Treasury Bond ETF (IGOV) carries a 7.43‑year effective duration, making it highly sensitive to rising global rates. A prolonged energy supply shock from the Hormuz crisis is pushing benchmark yields higher across the curve, amplifying potential capital...
US-China Summit: Policy, Trade Developments Last Week Cloud Outlook for Global Biofuel Feedstock Markets
During a two‑day summit on May 14‑15, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping signaled a willingness to re‑engage on trade, including agricultural commodities. However, no concrete commitments on soybean purchases or tariff adjustments were announced, leaving soybean,...
Indian Bond Yields Spike to Six-Week High as Crude Oil Price Rally Jolts Markets
Indian government bond yields surged to a six‑week high on Monday as global Treasury yields rose and crude oil prices spiked. The benchmark 6.48% 2035 bond climbed to 7.14%, while the rupee fell to a record low of 96.31 per...
Oil Prices Rise and Bonds Wobble as Iran War Stokes Inflation Fears
Oil prices jumped after an attack on a UAE nuclear plant and stalled US‑Iran peace talks, pushing Brent crude to $111.16 a barrel before easing to $110. Global bond markets reacted sharply, with the US 10‑year Treasury yield climbing to...
Japan Considers Compiling Supplementary Budget to Fight Fuel Costs
The Japanese government is weighing a supplementary budget for the current fiscal year to counter soaring fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Officials say the war has disrupted oil trade routes, pushing energy costs higher and deepening Japan’s...
FX Daily: Bearish Yield Curve Steepening Hits Risk Assets
A bearish steepening of the U.S. yield curve is driving a sell‑off in long‑dated Treasuries, pushing 10‑year yields to their highest level since early 2025. The move follows a surprise 6% YoY rise in April PPI, the strongest inflation reading...
India-UAE Energy Push Offers Relief, but Global Risks Still Loom: Arnab Das
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to the United Arab Emirates resulted in agreements on strategic petroleum reserves and long‑term LNG supplies, offering India short‑term relief from soaring energy costs and balance‑of‑payments pressure. Global‑market strategist Arnab Das cautioned that the...
EU to Force Companies to Buy Components From Non-Chinese Suppliers, FT Reports
The European Union is drafting rules that will require companies to source critical components from at least three non‑Chinese suppliers, limiting any single supplier to 30‑40% of total purchases. The measure focuses on sectors such as chemicals and industrial machinery,...
India Poised for Strong Growth Revival Despite Global Risks: Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley’s new India Equity Strategy Playbook says the country is on the brink of a fresh growth cycle, driven by supportive fiscal and monetary policies, robust domestic demand, and a rebound in corporate earnings. Earnings growth is turning after...
EU Races to Find Deal Compromise as Trump Tariff Deadline Looms
The European Union is accelerating negotiations to strike a compromise on a pending trade deal as President Donald Trump’s deadline for imposing tariffs on EU steel and aluminium approaches. EU officials are balancing industry pressure with political demands, aiming to...
Oil Crisis to Become a Full-Blown Catastrophe
Global oil stockpiles have buffered disruptions from the U.S.-Israel war with Iran and the near‑stop of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, stalled peace talks and rising U.S. inflation are eroding that cushion, prompting analysts to warn of rapidly...
Thai Q1 GDP Grows 2.8% Y/Y, Above Forecast
Thailand’s economy expanded 2.8% year‑on‑year in Q1 2026, outpacing the Reuters median forecast of 2.2%. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, growth was 0.7%, far above the 0.1% analysts expected. The National Economic and Social Development Council kept its 2026...
Markets Are Jittery as the Global Oil Crisis Bleeds Into a Global Debt Selloff, While Trump Weighs New Military Options...
U.S. stock futures slipped on Sunday as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, pushing oil prices higher and sparking a broader market sell‑off. Brent crude rose to $110.70 a barrel and U.S. crude to $107.26, while the 30‑year Treasury yield...
UK Firms Halt Investments and Hiring as Iran War Pushes up Costs, Bosses Warn
A new Guardian survey reveals UK firms are suspending investment projects and freezing hiring as the Iran‑Israel conflict drives up input costs and fuels broader economic uncertainty. Companies are shifting focus from growth to cost‑control, with many executives citing rising...
Macroeconomics of Tariffs with Global Production and Finance Networks
A new framework integrates global production networks into the New Keynesian open‑economy model, showing that tariffs function as both demand and supply shocks. By incorporating price rigidities, financial frictions and network propagation, the model predicts that even short‑lived tariffs can...
Stocks Waver as Doubts Over US-Iran Deal Lift Oil: Markets Wrap
Oil prices fell on news of a possible US‑Iran waiver, easing market pressure. Brent crude slipped to $108 per barrel after Iranian media reported Washington’s temporary sanctions waiver proposal. The dip in oil helped the S&P 500 recover modestly after its...
U.S. Stock Futures Slip, Oil Prices Push Higher as Iran War Remains Stuck in Stalemate
U.S. stock‑index futures slipped modestly on Sunday as West Texas Intermediate crude surged toward $107 a barrel, reflecting heightened tension in the Iran‑Hormuz standoff. The conflict has pushed U.S. gasoline to $4.51 per gallon, stoking inflation worries that rose to...
Russian SME Closures Accelerate in 1Q26 as Economy Contracts
Russian small‑and‑medium‑enterprise closures surged in Q1 2026, with about 209,000 firms shutting down – a 9 percent increase year‑over‑year. The wave follows a real‑terms contraction, a 14.5 percent policy rate, a two‑point VAT hike and inflation that outpaces the official 5.9 percent headline. Retail,...
Washington Week Ahead: China Deals, Tomatoes and Midterms in Focus
President Donald Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping secured a new Chinese commitment to buy at least $17 billion in U.S. agricultural commodities each year for the next three years, adding to existing soybean purchases and reviving poultry and beef exports. The...
ET Graphics: BoP Stability Tested by Outflows & Rupee Fall
India’s balance‑of‑payments is under strain as the current‑account deficit widens and capital‑account surplus contracts, prompting heightened outflows. The rupee has slipped roughly 11% over the past year and about 5% since the US‑Iran conflict began, amplifying external vulnerabilities. The Reserve...
Why the US, UK and NZ Haven't Raised Interest Rates in Years
Australia’s Reserve Bank lifted its cash rate to 4.35% in May, while the United States, United Kingdom and New Zealand have left policy rates unchanged since 2023. The three countries cite weaker labour markets, higher unemployment and volatile currencies as reasons...
Power Rationed, Medical Supplies in Doubt as Fuel Crisis Lingers for Millions
The Iran‑Israel conflict has triggered a global fuel shock, pushing diesel to a peak of $3.30 per litre and inflating transport costs worldwide. Governments from Japan to Australia are scrambling with multi‑billion‑dollar aid packages, while Russia’s crude exports surged to...
Peso, Politics Seen Pressuring Equities
The Philippine Stock Exchange index closed at 5,976.77, modestly up week‑on‑week but still below the 6,000 resistance level. A record‑weak peso at P61.72 per dollar is inflating import costs and stoking inflation fears. Combined with elevated oil prices, lingering interest‑rate...
Gov’t Infra Spending Plunges 44% as Graft Crackdown Halts Projects
The Philippines’ infrastructure outlays plunged 43.5% in Q1, falling to ₱147.8 billion (≈ $2.7 bn) from ₱261.8 billion a year earlier. March spending halved to ₱59.1 billion (≈ $1.1 bn) as the Department of Public Works and Highways tightened billing validation after a flood‑control graft scandal. Total...
India Taps Oman to Rescue $11.8 Billion Food Exports to West Asia
India is turning to Oman’s ports and land corridors to sustain its $11.8 billion annual food export pipeline to West Asia after the Strait of Hormuz became impassable. The Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority has been negotiating with...
A Sinking Ship? Why the EU and China Could Be Heading for a Trade War
Tensions between the European Union and China escalated at a recent Beijing conference, where both sides traded accusations of protectionism and bullying. The EU’s forthcoming Industrial Accelerator Act would force Chinese high‑tech investors to form joint ventures, hire locally and...
China Expands State Support Beyond EVs, Chips Into Broader Economy: Report
China is broadening its state‑led industrial policy beyond electric vehicles, chips and clean energy to cover AI, quantum, critical minerals and mature manufacturing sectors. The U.S. Chamber report says this systemic push is boosting China’s trade surplus to nearly $2 trillion...
G7 Finance Ministers to Meet Amid Warning of Economic Consequences of Prolonged Strait of Hormuz Closure
G7 finance ministers and central bankers will meet in Paris as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz fuels sharp rises in oil prices and bond yields. Eurogroup President Kyriakos Pierrakakis warned that reopening the waterway is essential to curb...
Borderlands Mexico: Cross-Border Trade Tops $84B in March as USMCA Talks Heat Up
U.S.-Mexico two‑way trade surged to more than $84 billion in March, an 8.6% year‑over‑year increase, keeping Mexico as the United States’ top trading partner. Exports from Mexico were led by computer parts, computers and automotive components, while U.S. exports to Mexico...
Wall Street Is Keeping a Close Eye on Kevin Warsh at the Fed. These Are the Red (and Green) Flags...
Kevin Warsh, the president‑nominated Federal Reserve chair, is under intense scrutiny as he prepares to lead a central bank confronting AI‑driven economic shifts, rising geopolitical tension, and sticky inflation. Wall Street is weighing green flags—his willingness to build consensus and...
China Says Preliminary Agreement Reached with US to Lower some Tariffs
China’s commerce ministry announced a preliminary agreement with the United States to lower tariffs, establishing a trade council and an investment council to negotiate reciprocal cuts. The deal also confirms agricultural and aviation arrangements, including China’s purchase of 200 Boeing...
FTAs, Lower Import Duties, Better Business Environment to Boost Net FDI Flows: ADB Chief Economist
India’s net foreign direct investment has slumped from $38.6 billion in 2021‑22 to just $3 billion in the April‑December period of FY 26, prompting concerns about capital outflows. ADB chief economist Albert Park attributes the decline to high tariffs, limited industrial infrastructure, and...
North America, NE Asia, Latin America Account for over 35 Pc of India's Exports in FY26
India’s merchandise exports reached $441.78 billion in FY 2025‑26, with North America, North‑East Asia and Latin America together accounting for over 35 percent of the total. Exports to North‑East Asia surged 21.6 percent to $41.6 billion, while Latin America grew 7.8 percent to $16.4 billion. The trade...
China Indicates Tariffs Were Discussed at Trump Summit
China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that the United States and China reached a preliminary agreement to reduce tariffs on a select group of products, directly contradicting President Trump’s earlier claim that tariffs were not discussed at the summit. The two...
Inflation Will Likely Be Higher for Longer. Your Retirement Plan Isn’t Built for That.
Official CPI reports 3.8% inflation, yet retirees experience roughly 8% because healthcare, energy, food and tax costs are soaring. The ongoing Iran conflict and rising Treasury debt keep oil premiums high, extending price pressures across the economy. Most retirement plans...
Trump’s Visit to China
Former President Donald Trump traveled to Beijing for a high‑stakes summit with President Xi Jinping, marking the first direct U.S.–China meeting of its kind in six years. The encounter was dissected on PBS’s Washington Week With The Atlantic, where journalists...