China Supplies 44pc of Imports as Australia’s Timber Bill Hits $3B
Australia’s wood‑product imports topped roughly $2 billion USD in 2025, with mainland China supplying $870 million USD – about 44 percent of the total. Plywood, LVL and glulam alone accounted for $523 million USD, representing 26 percent of spend, while builders’ joinery and sawnwood added $371 million and $367 million USD respectively. The three categories together consume nearly 64 percent of the import bill, despite Australian plantations having the raw fibre capacity to produce them domestically. IndustryEdge warns the $1.99 billion USD import bill highlights a strategic dilemma as Australia exports raw timber but pays abroad for finished building products.
Big Energy Shock Will Push up Prices, Bank Boss Tells BBC
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told the IMF meeting that the world faces a ‘very big energy shock’ that will push up UK prices. He said the surge in oil and gas costs makes any decision on interest‑rate moves...
Strait of Hormuz Disruption and Global Supply Implications>
In Q1 2026 the U.S.–Iran conflict shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly 40% of global nitrogen trade and 20% of LNG supply. The chokepoint closure drove Brent crude from about $61 to a peak above $117 per barrel before diplomatic...
Jorgovanka Tabaković: EU Economy and Global Economic Developments
Serbian central bank Governor Jorgovanka Tabaković highlighted the IMF’s modest upward revision of the Eurozone growth outlook and warned that sustained oil price spikes could add 40 basis points of inflation while trimming global output by up to 0.2%. She...
Are Ships Evading the US Blockade of Iran Ports?
The U.S. Central Command announced a maritime blockade of all traffic to and from Iran ports on 13 April, turning back ten vessels with no break‑throughs in the first 52 hours. Iranian‑flagged ships such as Kashan, Golbon and the Comoros‑flagged Blue Sky 4 skirted...
‘Investors Are Sleepwalking’ on Iran War Risks
On the Infrastructure Investor Podcast, I Squared founder Sadek Wahba cautioned investors about an over‑hyped AI infrastructure boom and highlighted that markets are underestimating the geopolitical fallout from the Iran‑Israel conflict. He argued that infrastructure assets remain resilient thanks to...
China’s G.D.P. Stronger Than Expected, Led by Infrastructure Spending
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that GDP expanded 1.3% quarter‑over‑quarter in Q1 2026, implying an annualized growth rate of about 5.3%, slightly above the 4.8% consensus. The modest gain was driven by an 8.9% year‑over‑year jump in infrastructure spending,...
Yannis Stournaras: The Greek Economy Ten Years After the Crisis - Lessons for National Economies, the Eurozone and Future Challenges
Greek central bank governor Yannis Stournaras reflected on Greece’s decade‑long journey from a sovereign‑debt crisis to fiscal surplus, highlighting how aggressive consolidation, banking restructuring and structural reforms restored credibility. He linked those lessons to today’s heightened geopolitical risk, noting that...
Thursday Briefing: What It Will Take for Britain to Break up with Natural Gas
Britain’s economy remains tightly linked to natural‑gas prices, a relationship that exploded into a cost‑of‑living crisis after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. A new geopolitical flashpoint – the US‑Israel strike on Iran – threatens to push gas prices higher,...
Fuel Rollback: Diesel May Drop ₱20, Gasoline ₱3 Next Week
Fuel prices in the Philippines are set to retreat next week as easing Middle‑East tensions push global benchmarks lower. Industry data based on the Platts Singapore mean projects diesel to drop ₱18‑20 per liter (about $0.36) and gasoline to fall...
Russia Had to Spend an Extra $130 Billion to Buy Goods While Sanctioned, Analysts From NATO's Frontline Say
Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau estimates Russia has spent an extra $130 billion on alternative imports of Western goods between 2022 and 2025, equivalent to an annual $32.5 billion loss. The report adds that Russian export volumes in key commodities such as iron...
Iran War: What Does Tehran Want and Will It Get It?
In a televised discussion, Gideon Rachman and Brookings scholar Suzanne Maloney explore Tehran’s objectives in the ongoing Iran‑U.S. confrontation and the prospects for a negotiated settlement. They argue that Iran’s primary aim is to lift crippling sanctions, secure regional leverage, and...
How the World Is Preparing for Oil Shortages
The Financial Times podcast warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a sharp oil shortage, potentially cutting as much as 20% of world supply. In response, Gulf monarchies have launched a wartime‑style financing drive, raising...
Hopes Grow for a Breakthrough in US-Iran Talks as Pakistan Mediates
Pakistani officials, led by Army Chief Asim Munir, delivered a fresh U.S. proposal to Tehran on 15 April, hoping for a major breakthrough in nuclear negotiations. The talks focus on narrowing the gap between a five‑year and a twenty‑year enrichment freeze...
India's Apple Component Exports to China Surge to Record $2.5 Billion Under ECMS Scheme
Apple’s Indian suppliers have shipped a record $2.5 billion of iPhone components to China in FY 26, a direct result of the government’s Electronics Component Manufacturing Scheme (ECMS). The surge follows a rapid rise from $920 million in FY 25 to $2.8 billion by January,...
Oil Prices Trade Subdued Amid Fragile Ceasefire, Peace Deal Hopes
Oil prices edged lower on Thursday as Brent slipped to $94.68 and WTI to $90.96, reflecting a modest 0.26% and 0.36% decline respectively. Market sentiment was tempered by optimism over a cease‑fire expected to hold through 21 April and renewed Iran‑US...
U.S. Toppled Iran’s Regime With British Help in 1953 — Can Trump Repeat History Sans UK Military in 2026?
The United States has activated a full‑scale naval blockade of Iran’s Gulf ports, deploying more than 15 warships to interdict vessels without authorization. While the 1953 U.S.–U.K. blockade helped precipitate a CIA‑backed coup, today’s effort lacks British military support and...
ICYMI - Reports that Iran Proposes Partial Hormuz Reopening for Ships via Oman Waters
Iran has signaled a willingness to let commercial vessels transit the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz without attack, linking the offer to progress in US‑Iran negotiations. The proposal marks a shift from earlier hardline ideas such as transit...
Pakistan’s “Managed Failure”: What the U.S.-Iran Stalemate Means for India’s Oil Supplies & Inflation? OPED
Senior US and Iranian officials met in Islamabad for a 21‑hour dialogue that ended without a formal deal, underscoring a deliberate "managed failure" aimed at containing escalation. The venue choice, the absence of Israel, and divergent US‑Iran agendas highlighted the...
Japan’s Katayama Says Closely Watching FX as Oil Volatility Hits Yen
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government is closely monitoring foreign‑exchange moves as oil‑price volatility fuels yen weakness. She confirmed ongoing dialogue with the United States, including talks with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and has alerted G7 partners to...
China Q1 GDP Beats Forecasts but Iran War Risks Loom
China’s economy expanded 5.0% year‑on‑year in Q1 2026, outpacing the 4.8% consensus and accelerating from 4.5% in the prior quarter. Quarterly growth held steady at 1.3% QoQ, matching forecasts. Policymakers, however, cautioned that the escalating Iran‑driven oil shock adds external...
U.S. Treasury Takes Aim at Iran's Shamkhani Shipping Network
The U.S. Treasury announced a new round of sanctions targeting Iran’s Shamkhani shadow‑fleet network, blacklisting nine vessels and more than a dozen companies and individuals linked to the family’s shipping empire. The measures focus on UAE‑based front firms such as...
China Beats Expectations with 5% Growth in First GDP Release Since Iran War
China reported a 5% year‑on‑year GDP expansion in Q1 2026, outpacing analysts’ forecasts. The growth came despite the broader geopolitical shock of the US‑Israel conflict in Iran, suggesting limited spillover to China’s economy. Policymakers see the result as a sign...
Iran Crisis Shoves Europe’s Economic Woes Off Summit Agenda
The European Council summit in Cyprus (April 23‑24) will be dominated by the Iran‑Israel conflict, pushing the EU’s long‑standing economic agenda to the back burner. Leaders must grapple with Iran’s six‑week blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is inflating...
Australia Jobs Resilience, Unemployment Rate Steady, Keeps RBA Focused on Inflation Risks
Australia’s labour market showed resilience in March, with employment rising by 17,900 jobs, just shy of the 20,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Full‑time positions surged by 52,500, offset by a 34,600 drop in part‑time roles,...
Australian March 2026 Unemployment Rate 4.3% (Expected 4.3%, Prior 4.3%)
Australia's labour market showed little change in March 2026, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3%, exactly matching forecasts and the prior month’s level. While job creation slowed, the data underscored the resilience of the economy amid global headwinds. The...
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Reference Rate for Today at 6.8616 (Vs. Estimate at 6.8190)
China's central bank set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8616 on April 16, 2026, above the Bloomberg estimate of 6.8190. The People’s Bank of China also injected 500 million yuan (about $71 million) through a 7‑day reverse‑repo operation, keeping the rate at...
Iran Hardliners Rise After War, Raising Risks to Hormuz and Peace Prospects
Iran’s post‑war power shift has entrenched hard‑liners, notably Mojtaba Khamenei, within the political and security hierarchy, curbing prospects for diplomatic compromise. The regime’s crackdown on dissent has intensified, with more arrests and executions. Tehran now leverages control of the Strait...
Fresh Hopes of US-Iran Talks Bring Peace to D-Street
India’s equity markets rallied 1.6% on Wednesday as reports of a second round of U.S.-Iran peace talks lifted hopes of ending the West Asian conflict. The NSE Nifty closed at 24,231.30 and the BSE Sensex at 78,111.24, while Brent crude...
War Adds to US Supply Chain Uncertainty, Impact Not Drastic Yet
The Port of Long Beach and the National Retail Federation say the Middle‑East war has not yet caused a sharp drop in U.S. retail shipments, but it is adding uncertainty to global supply chains. Rerouting vessels and rising fuel costs...
Global Seaborne Crude Oil Shipments Down 16% Since Start Of The Iran War
Since the Iran war began, global seaborne crude oil shipments have dropped 16% to 38.4 mbpd, a loss of 7.6 mbpd versus the first nine weeks of 2026. The decline reflects a 9.5% shortfall of the U.S. EIA’s projected 2026 production reaching...
How Iran and the US Are Positioning Themselves for Talks
Bloomberg reports that the United States and Iran are discussing a two‑week cease‑fire extension to buy time for a broader peace negotiation. Both sides have an in‑principle agreement to continue diplomacy, though no formal request for the extension has been...
Economist Jim Rickards Says the Biggest Opportunity of the Decade Is Quietly Sitting in Alaska
Macro economist and former CIA adviser Jim Rickards released a free video presentation highlighting a quiet but significant shift in U.S. resource policy. He points to President Trump’s Executive Order 14153, signed in January 2025, which speeds up permitting for...
Canton Fair Under Middle East Cloud, but Sets Records, as High Costs Hit China’s Exporters
The 2026 Canton Fair in Guangzhou set new records with 75,700 booths, 32,000 companies and 1.55 million square metres of exhibition space, underscoring its role as a barometer for China’s export engine. While the fair attracted a massive turnout, escalating Middle...
India's Trade Gap Shrinks in March, Swells in FY26
India’s trade deficit narrowed in March to $20.7 bn as both exports and imports fell amid the West Asia conflict, but the full FY26 gap widened 26% to $119.3 bn. Merchandise exports slipped 7.4% to $38.9 bn, while imports dropped 6.5% to $59.6 bn,...
Iran War Live: Pakistan in Push for New Round of US-Iran Peace Negotiations
The White House expressed optimism about a new round of US‑Iran peace talks, prompting Brent crude to dip to $94.49 a barrel and WTI to $90.59. Pakistani army chief Asim Munir travelled to Tehran to broker a breakthrough, while a...
World Bank, IMF Predict Significant Slowing of Growth Across Central Asia and Caucasus
The World Bank and IMF project a marked slowdown in economic growth across Central Asia and the Caucasus over the next few years, with regional averages falling to roughly 4.7% by 2027. Azerbaijan is the only country expected to maintain...
IMF the First to Improve Russia’s Growth Outlook on Iran War Windfall
The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its 2026 growth projection for Russia to 1.1% annual GDP expansion, up from 0.8%, citing a windfall from higher oil prices triggered by the Iran‑war‑related energy price spike. The IMF expects the 2027 outlook...
The Disappearing Middle Is Distorting Canada’s Food Economy
Canada’s food system is being reshaped by a shrinking middle class, creating a K‑shaped market where affluent consumers drive premium demand while low‑income households cut back to basic calories. Over the past decade the top 20% of earners increased their...
Local Government Debt Swaps, Fiscal-Financial Governance, and Bank Risk in China
China’s debt‑swap program, launched to convert implicit local government liabilities into explicit securities, is showing measurable effects on the banking sector. Using a 2011‑2024 bank‑region panel, researchers find that overall bank risk declines, but the impact varies by ownership. State‑owned...
Oil’s 50% Surge Sparks Supercycle Talk but Risks Linger
Oil prices have surged more than 50 % since late February after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran prompted Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz, tightening global supply. The abrupt supply shock, combined with a fifth of LNG capacity offline,...
Sterilized Forex Intervention: Meaning and Examples
Sterilized foreign‑exchange intervention lets a central bank buy or sell foreign currency while keeping the monetary base unchanged by offsetting the transaction with an equal‑size open‑market operation. In the United States, the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund and the Federal Reserve...
Gold Rises as Push for US-Iran Diplomacy Eases Inflation Risk
Gold edged higher, breaking above $4,810 an ounce after a 1.1% dip the day before. The rally was sparked by renewed US‑Iran diplomatic talks that could extend a cease‑fire by two weeks, easing inflation worries tied to the conflict. Despite...
Asian Stocks Rise, US Hits Record on Iran Talks: Markets Wrap
Asian equities climbed as traders priced in a possible US‑Iran ceasefire and strong corporate earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index opened 0.4% higher, reflecting optimism that de‑escalation will ease oil prices and support growth. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 each...
Oil Steady on Signs US, Iran Working Toward Ceasefire Extension
Oil prices steadied on reports that the United States and Iran are weighing a two‑week cease‑fire extension to give diplomats more time for a peace deal. Brent crude traded just under $95 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate hovered near...
U.S. Is Most Resilient to the Energy Shock, Until It Isn’t
The seven‑week war in Iran has disrupted oil and gas flows, hitting Asia and Europe hard while the United States remains comparatively insulated. However, U.S. consumers are already feeling higher gasoline prices—over $1 per gallon—and a 3.3% year‑over‑year CPI increase...
S&P 500 Closes at Record as Ceasefire Optimism, Bank Earnings Power Rally
The S&P 500 closed at a fresh all‑time high on April 15, buoyed by optimism that a ceasefire in the Middle East could de‑escalate geopolitical risk. Strong quarterly earnings from major U.S. banks reinforced confidence in corporate fundamentals, while technology and financial...
IMF Chief Warns of 'Tough Times' If Oil Prices Stay High
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that persistent high oil prices and the ongoing Middle East conflict could plunge the global economy into a period of tough growth and rising inflation, especially in food and fertilizer markets. She highlighted the...
US Confirms Russia, Iran Waivers Will Not Be Renewed
The United States announced Wednesday that the temporary waivers allowing the purchase of Russian and Iranian oil already at sea will expire after one more month and will not be renewed. The waivers, granted under sanctions‑relief programs, have enabled traders...
Accountants Worried About War in Iran
A joint ACCA‑IMA survey of 557 accountants shows the war in Iran has vaulted geopolitical risk to the top priority for Q1 2026, pushing economic concerns to third place behind cyber threats. Respondents reported operating‑cost pressures at their highest since the...