PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Mid-Point Today at 6.8649 (Vs. Estimate at 6.8315)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set today’s USD/CNY mid‑point at 6.8649, within its usual ±2% trading band. The central bank also injected roughly 500 million yuan (about $73 million) into the market through a 7‑day reverse‑repo operation, leaving the repo rate unchanged at 1.4%. Meanwhile, ING revised its USD/CNY outlook lower to a 6.70‑7.05 range, indicating a more bullish stance on the yuan. The move reflects ongoing efforts to balance liquidity and support the currency amid global headwinds.
RBNZ Says Prior Cuts Still Support Growth, Sees Upside if Conflict Eases
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its cash rate at 2.25% for a second meeting, noting that earlier rate cuts are still feeding through the economy. Governor Anna Breman said growth this year hinges on a swift resolution to...
PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.8315 – Reuters Estimate
The People’s Bank of China is expected to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8315, according to Reuters estimates. The midpoint is announced each morning and defines a ±2% trading band for the onshore yuan. A stronger-than-expected midpoint is...
Is Hormuz Open or Closed? Shiptracking Data Reveals True Picture
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains near‑standstill despite Iran’s conditional announcement that safe passage would be possible for two weeks. In the first 24 hours only seven vessels—six bulk carriers and one oil‑chemical tanker—were recorded, with most using Iran’s...
Ceasefire Calm Sparks Bargain Hunting in Beaten-Down Stocks
A tentative cease‑fire between the US and Iran has eased geopolitical tension, prompting investors to revisit stocks that were hardest hit by the West‑Asia conflict. Aviation, travel, oil‑marketing companies, textiles and chemicals posted sharp gains, with Hindustan Petroleum up 10.1%...
Inside India Newsletter: Tariffs and Iran War Threaten India's $100 Billion Garments Export Goal
India’s textile sector, the nation’s second‑largest employer, is grappling with a double shock: a 50% U.S. tariff imposed in August 2025 and the February 2024 Iran war that has spiked raw‑material and freight costs. Export earnings slipped to $29.5 billion in...
Windfall Tax Delay Exposes Indonesia’s Challenge in Capturing Commodity Gains
Indonesia has postponed its planned windfall tax on coal and nickel exports, originally set for April 1, to resolve technical disputes over profit definitions, price thresholds, and calculation methods. The delay reflects a broader tension between the government’s short‑term fiscal pressures—exacerbated...
Iran War Live: Lebanon Mourns as Israel Raids Shake Trump, Tehran Ceasefire
Israel’s renewed strikes on Lebanon prompted the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps to suspend all vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, despite a U.S.‑brokered cease‑fire that had raised hopes of reopening the key oil lane. Only a handful of ships...
Investors Must Navigate Tactical Gains, Structural Risks in US-Iran Ceasefire- #Wealth #AssetManagement #AssetFinance
A two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ignited a sharp relief rally, pulling equity markets higher as tail‑risk premiums recede. Investors can seize short‑term gains, but the rally masks lingering structural vulnerabilities in the energy sector, where...
Iran Publishes Redrawn Traffic Scheme for Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization issued a revised traffic separation scheme for the Strait of Hormuz, citing the risk of naval mines and ongoing war conditions. The new routing forces inbound vessels between Qeshm and Larak islands and outbound traffic...
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Understanding the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Economic Insight
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a diffusion index compiled monthly from surveys of supply‑chain executives, measuring new orders, production, employment, deliveries and inventories. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction. The Institute for Supply Management...
“Strait of Hormuz Key to Ceasefire: JD Vance Says President Won’t Abide by Terms if It Stays Closed”
U.S. Vice President JD Vance warned that President Donald Trump will not honor the cease‑fire if Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed, tying the agreement to the reopening of the vital shipping lane. The United States is pressing Tehran...
Ford Seeks Help with F-150, but White House Won't Budge
Ford’s best‑selling F‑150 faces a multi‑billion‑dollar hit after two fires at Novelis’s Oswego aluminum plant crippled supply. The automaker has asked the Trump administration for temporary relief from recently doubled 50% aluminum tariffs, but officials have refused. Ford estimates a...
“Netanyahu Says Israel Will Achieve Goals ‘by Agreement or Resuming Fighting’, Warns Iran with ‘Finger on Trigger’”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that the fragile cease‑fire with Iran could end if diplomatic talks fail, emphasizing Israel’s aim to stop Iran’s uranium enrichment program. He said Israel will achieve its goals either through agreement or by resuming...
Wages of War: Opportunities Amid Risks
Bill Campbell, head of DoubleLine’s Global Sovereign & Emerging Markets team, warned that the Iran conflict – dubbed Operation Epic Fury – is injecting new inflation and growth risks into the global economy. He highlighted rising risk premiums for energy,...
France's Macron Urges US, Iran to Respect Ceasefire in Lebanon
French President Emmanuel Macron told Iran’s President Massoud Pezeshkian and U.S. President Donald Trump that any cease‑fire must include Lebanon to be credible. The United States and Iran have agreed to a two‑week pause in their broader conflict, but Israel...
Tehran Takes the Strait — and the Premium
Iran maintained roughly 1.9 million barrels‑per‑day of crude exports in March, even as rival Gulf shipments were curtailed. By restricting Hormuz traffic to vessels linked to Tehran, the country turned the strait into a de‑facto gatekeeper, limiting eastbound supply. This scarcity...
West Asia Conflict Deals a Double Whammy to India’s Farm Sector: Pre-Harvest Cost Pressures, Post-Harvest Shipping Delays
India’s farm sector is hit by a double shock: pre‑harvest input costs and labour shortages are rising, while post‑harvest shipments of perishables are stalled due to the West Asia conflict. Crude oil prices have jumped to $120 a barrel, inflating...
Russia's Shadow Fleet Thumbs Its Nose at the Royal Navy
The Russian Navy escorted two OFAC‑, EU‑, and UK‑sanctioned shadow‑fleet tankers, Enigma and Universal, through the English Channel under the protection of the frigate Admiral Grigorovich. A UK legal review confirmed that existing legislation would allow authorities to interdict such...
Korean Stocks, Won Surge as Iran Ceasefire Spurs Relief Rally
South Korean markets rallied sharply after a two‑week Iran ceasefire eased geopolitical tensions and lifted oil prices. The Kospi jumped 6.9%, with chip giants Samsung Electronics up 7.1% and SK Hynix soaring 13%. The won strengthened 2.1% against the dollar...
Gold Steadies as Traders Weigh Fragile Ceasefire in Iran War
Gold steadied near $4,715 an ounce after a 1.5% rise over two sessions as traders weighed the prospect of diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran. The White House announced direct talks with Tehran, while Iran condemned Israeli strikes...
Inside The 'Fragile' US-Iran Ceasefire: 'The US Didn't Have As Many Cards As It Thought It Did'
President Donald Trump announced a temporary U.S.-Iran cease‑fire just hours before his self‑imposed deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Within 24 hours, Tehran accused Washington of breaching the pact and declared the strait closed, while the White...
Oil Rises After Biggest Drop Since 2020 as Hormuz Stays Blocked
Oil prices rebounded on April 8 after the steepest one‑day decline since April 2020, with West Texas Intermediate climbing back to around $97 a barrel. The rally came as the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments,...
Petrostates Without Oil Export Routes Take the Hardest Hit
The February‑March closure of the Strait of Hormuz eliminated roughly 11 million barrels per day of crude and fuel exports from the Middle East, forcing Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain to slash output dramatically. By contrast, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman...
As EU-Mercosur Agreement Goes Into Effect, Environmentalists Raise Red Flags
The EU‑Mercosur trade agreement, worth potentially trillions of dollars, will be provisionally implemented in May 2026 after Paraguay’s ratification. It removes tariffs on about 95% of Brazilian exports, promising a major boost to EU‑Latin America commerce. Environmental NGOs warn the tariff...
The Third Gulf War Will Scar Energy Markets for a Long Time Yet
The article warns that the third Gulf war, sparked by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has trapped roughly 15% of global oil output and 20% of LNG supplies, sending energy markets into turmoil. A two‑week cease‑fire announced by...
Trump Administration Signals It Is Mulling NATO Withdrawal After Iran War
President Donald Trump has signaled that the United States is weighing a withdrawal from NATO after European allies refused to commit combat troops to the U.S.-Israel war against Iran. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt called the alliance’s response a...
Greek PM Says Tolls for Ships to Cross Hormuz Would Be Unacceptable, a Risk to Freedom of Navigation
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said on April 8 that any fee imposed on vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz would be unacceptable and would set a dangerous precedent for freedom of navigation. Iran has floated the idea of tolls to...
‘They Essentially Have a Blackmail Card up Their Sleeve’: A Look at Iran’s Plan to Charge Tankers to Use the...
Iran announced plans to levy transit fees on every tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz, insisting on payment in cryptocurrency rather than traditional currencies. The move follows a two‑week cease‑fire between the United States and Iran, which has temporarily...
Former Negotiator Says Time Favors Canada in USMCA Talks
Former Canadian chief negotiator Steve Verheul told a Bank of Montreal panel that mounting economic pressure on the United States gives Canada a strategic advantage in the upcoming USMCA review. He cited the war in Iran’s disruption of energy, aluminum...
How War in the Middle East Paralyzed an Asian Food Giant
The war in Iran has choked fuel and fertilizer supplies, pushing diesel prices in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta to levels higher than after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The surge forced rice mills to shut down and electricity costs to skyrocket,...
How China Positioned Itself to Win the Global Energy Crisis
China entered the Iran‑War with extensive oil and gas stockpiles and a clean‑energy infrastructure that outpaces any other nation. The conflict has throttled Hormuz shipments, prompting a rapid global shift toward renewables where China already dominates solar panels, wind turbines,...
Iran Says Tankers Are Suspended at Hormuz Due to Israeli Attack on Lebanon
Iran’s state media said it suspended oil‑tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after Israel launched a large‑scale attack on Lebanon, while U.S. officials insisted the waterway remains open and traffic is rising. The announcement came amid a fragile cease‑fire...
Vance to Take the Lead on Iran Talks
Vice President JD Vance has been appointed to lead the United States delegation in direct talks with Iran, scheduled for Saturday in Pakistan. The discussions follow a newly announced cease‑fire, which Vance praised as a "good first step" but warned...
Mirziyoyeva Appears at Mar-a-Lago as US, Uzbekistan Expand Ties
Saida Mirziyoyeva, daughter of Uzbekistan’s President and head of his administration, visited Donald Trump’s Mar‑a‑Lago estate and met U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy Sergio Gor. The trip coincided with the inaugural meeting of the American‑Uzbek Business...
Fed Meeting Minutes Show Policymakers Weighed Economic Impact of Iran War
Federal Reserve officials highlighted the economic fallout from the U.S.-Iran conflict in the March 17‑18 FOMC minutes, noting that a prolonged war could lift energy prices and feed core inflation. The committee voted to keep the policy rate steady in...
Bonds May Be the Real Winner Now that the World Economy Has Sidestepped a Historic Oil Crisis
The Iran‑driven crisis and the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz sparked warnings of the largest geopolitical oil shock in history, with the Dallas Federal Reserve estimating a disruption two to three times larger than the 1973, 1979 and...
North Macedonia’s FX Reserves up 9.6% Y/Y in March
North Macedonia's foreign exchange reserves rose 9.6% year‑on‑year to €4.249 bn (about $4.6 bn) in March 2026, according to the central bank. The gain follows a 5.5% dip in February, which the bank linked to rising business costs from Middle‑East tensions. Securities still...
Transpacific Ocean Rates Rise, Demand Softens
Ocean freight rates climbed sharply in early April as the Iran war drove fuel costs higher. The Asia‑to‑U.S. West Coast lane rose 11% week‑over‑week to $2,420 per FEU, while the East Coast lane increased 5% to $3,350 per FEU. Despite...
Vance Says up to Iran if It Wants Truce to 'Fall Apart' Over Lebanon
U.S. Vice President JD Vance warned Iran not to jeopardize the fragile cease‑fire between Israel and Hezbollah by insisting Lebanon be included, saying the United States never promised such a provision. He labeled Iran’s stance a “legitimate misunderstanding” and cautioned...
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GEOPOLITICS: When Diplomacy Fails — the Disastrous Cost of the US-Israeli War on Iran
The United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes that killed Iran’s supreme leader and senior officials, abruptly ending a fragile nuclear‑negotiation track mediated by Oman. The attacks violated Article 2(4) of the UN Charter and U.S. congressional requirements, undermining the legal...
RBI Monetary Policy: Currency Forward Curbs Temporary, Says Sanjay Malhotra
The Reserve Bank of India announced that its recent non‑deliverable forward (NDF) market curbs are temporary, targeting speculative pressure linked to the West Asia conflict. Banks must trim net open forex positions to $100 million by April 10, with no deadline extension,...
Iran Ceasefire May Not Quell Mortgage Rate Volatility
Mortgage rates slipped on April 8 after the United States and Iran announced a two‑week ceasefire, with the 30‑year fixed rate dropping from 6.44% to 6.38%. Analysts say the dip is likely temporary, as lingering uncertainty over energy prices and inflation...
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Markets News, April 8, 2026: U.S. Indexes End Sharply Higher, Oil Plunges as US, Iran Agree to Ceasefire; Dow Jumps...
U.S. and Iran agreed to a two‑week cease‑fire, triggering a sharp rally across major U.S. equity indexes. The Dow Jones surged more than 1,300 points, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose close to 3% each. Crude oil prices plunged about...
White House: Strait of Hormuz Closure 'Completely Unacceptable' Under Ceasefire
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt dismissed reports that Iran had shut the Strait of Hormuz, calling any attempt to halt maritime traffic "completely unacceptable." She hailed the fragile ceasefire as a U.S. victory and said the Trump administration’s military...
RBI Monetary Policy: Call Below Repo to Comfort Banks
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) clarified that call‑rate levels below the repo rate are a liquidity‑comfort measure, not a prelude to a rate cut. In March, the weighted‑average call rate (WACR) held at 5.25%, aligning with the 5.25% policy...
US Did Not Agree that Ceasefire Would Cover Lebanon, Vance Says
Vice President JD Vance clarified in Budapest that the U.S.-Iran cease‑fire does not extend to Lebanon, contradicting Iranian negotiators’ expectations and a prior statement by Pakistan’s prime minister. The truce is limited to Iran and U.S. allies such as Israel...
Why Pressure Toppled Caracas but Not Tehran
U.S.‑backed political transition in Venezuela, led by acting president Delcy Rodríguez, has stabilized the country and revived oil production, with exports topping 1 million barrels per day in March. Polls show nearly 80% of Venezuelans feel conditions are the same or...
How the ‘TACO’ Trade Went From a Light-Hearted Wall Street Joke to a Seri...
The “TACO” trade—short for “Trump always chickens out”—has morphed from a tongue‑in‑cheek acronym into a measurable market driver since President Trump’s second term began. Analysts linked nine of the ten biggest single‑day gains for the S&P 500 to de‑escalation moves on...
COMMENT: Should the Ceasefire Fail, We Could Expect a ‘Digital Hormuz’ Scenario
In less than three years GCC states have assembled the world’s largest non‑US digital infrastructure, with data‑centre capacity slated to triple to 3.3 GW by 2030 and projects like the UAE’s Stargate AI campus backed by $15 bn from Microsoft and partners....