Hapag-Lloyd Sees Slow Return to Gulf Shipping After U.S.-Iran Ceasefire, Warns of Rising Disruption Costs
Hapag‑Lloyd warned that even after the U.S.–Iran ceasefire, a full return to normal Gulf shipping could take six to eight weeks. The carrier may start limited bookings to the upper Gulf in the coming days, but it needs security assurances before expanding service. Weekly disruption costs have risen to $50‑60 million, reflecting rerouting, delays and added security measures. About 1,000 vessels remain stranded, including six Hapag‑Lloyd ships with roughly 25,000 containers on board.
Lipsky Quoted in Reuters Article on China’s Role in Iran’s Military and Drone Production Process, and How Trump Is Unlikely...
The Atlantic Council cited a Reuters interview in which former Pentagon official Michael Lipsky warned that China is deepening its partnership with Iran, supplying components that enable Tehran's expanding drone and missile programs. Lipsky also noted that President Trump’s recent...
Investors Still Have Questions About the Cease-Fire
Investors cheered a two‑week cease‑fire between the United States and Iran, prompting a sharp rally in global stock markets and a pull‑back in oil prices. Iran’s foreign minister announced safe passage for vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, temporarily easing...
Catalyst for Change: Africa Feels the Brunt of Middle East Conflict, but It Could Also Accelerate Structural Change
A joint report by the AfDB, AUC, UNDP and UNECA warns that the Middle East war‑driven surge in oil and fertiliser prices is straining African economies. Currency depreciation in 29 nations has raised debt‑service costs and made essential imports more...
Iran Ceasefire, Treasury Gaps Shift Rate Outlook
A ceasefire in Iran was announced, prompting immediate market reactions. Treasury yields opened higher, preserving bullish gaps and compressing the Federal Reserve’s rate‑cut outlook from an 18‑month to a 15‑month horizon. Technical analysis identifies narrow 3‑5‑basis‑point target ranges for the...
What Adjusted Steel, Aluminum and Copper Tariffs Mean for Construction
The Trump administration has raised Section 232 tariffs to as high as 50% on pure steel, aluminum and copper products, with a 25% levy on derivative goods substantially made of those metals. Contractors say the impact will vary: some materials may...
Russia Oil Export Revenues Hit Highest Since Early Ukraine War as Prices Surge, Despite Ukrainian Port Attacks
Russian crude export revenues surged to about $2.02 billion per week, the highest level since June 2022, as global oil prices hit multi‑year highs. The rise was driven by a sharp increase in Urals prices above $116 a barrel and a narrowing...
Why Fuel and Food Prices Could Still Be Affected for Months
A tentative two‑week ceasefire in Iran has eased geopolitical tension, causing crude oil prices to tumble, yet they remain above pre‑war levels. Analysts warn that damaged Gulf production facilities and blocked shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will keep fuel...
World Bank Cuts Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth Outlook Due to Iran War
The World Bank lowered its 2026 growth projection for sub‑Saharan Africa to 4.1%, unchanged from 2025 but down from the 4.4% forecast made in October. The downgrade reflects the fallout from the Iran‑Israel war, which has pushed up fuel and...
Iran Steel Supply Unlikely to Benefit From Ceasefire
Despite a newly announced two‑week US‑Iran ceasefire, Iran’s steel production is unlikely to rebound quickly. Air strikes in late March severely damaged Mobarakeh Steel and Khuzestan Steel, forcing both plants—combined capacity about 14 million tonnes per year—to halt output for months....
Steel Tariffs Risk Supply Shortages, SAISC Warns
The Southern African Institute of Steel Construction (SAISC) warns that newly imposed anti‑dumping tariffs on selected steel imports are already prompting merchants to cancel or delay orders. While the tariffs aim to protect domestic producers, SAISC says the sudden rise...
Mortgage Applications Fall, but Iran Ceasefire Could Bring Lower Rates
Mortgage applications slipped 0.8% last week as the Mortgage Bankers Association reported a modest decline in activity. The 30‑year fixed rate eased to 6.51% from 6.57%, reflecting a near‑10‑basis‑point drop in the 10‑year Treasury after a cease‑fire in the Middle...
March 2026 CPI Preview: What to Expect
The Center for Economic and Policy Research expects the March 2026 Consumer Price Index to spike sharply, driven primarily by a surge in gasoline prices. Food costs and higher import prices are also slated to lift the headline rate, while...
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Sends Wall Street Soaring, with Crude Oil Prices Down 16%
Wall Street rallied sharply after the United States and Iran announced a two‑week ceasefire that reopens the Strait of Hormuz, sending U.S. crude prices down about 16 percent. S&P 500 futures jumped 2.7%, Dow futures 2.6% and Nasdaq futures 3.4%...
Iran’s Shattered Economy Means Any Success in War May Be Fleeting
Iran’s brief strategic victory in the US‑Israel truce is shadowed by a shattered economy after weeks of strikes. Damage to factories, power plants, railways and key petrochemical sites, combined with soaring inflation and a 40% price jump, has pushed millions...
Xi Jinping Backs Services Sector to Power China’s Next Growth Phase
President Xi Jinping announced a renewed emphasis on China’s services sector, urging a demand‑driven, technology‑focused growth model. The strategy aims to rebalance the economy away from export‑led manufacturing toward higher‑value services such as finance, health, and digital platforms. Officials highlighted...
US–Iran Ceasefire: What It Means for Trump, Tehran, Israel and US Allies. Early Analysis From Chatham House Experts
On April 7, the United States, Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, halting attacks and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The truce is hailed as a short‑term victory but leaves unresolved issues such as Iran’s nuclear...
Centre Maintains Multi-Ministry Response to Support Exporters Amid Hormuz Disruptions
India’s Department of Commerce and DGFT have launched a coordinated multi‑ministry response to export disruptions caused by tensions in the Hormuz Strait. Measures include the CBIC’s “Back to Town” procedure, waivers on storage and reefer charges at JNPT, and extended...
Homebuyer Mortgage Demand Drops Annually for the First Time in over a Year, as War Fuels Uncertainty
Mortgage demand slipped for the first time in over a year as applications to purchase a home fell 7% year‑over‑year and refinance requests dropped 4% YoY. The average 30‑year fixed‑rate contract slipped to 6.51% from 6.57%, but remains above the...
Wars Impose Deep and Prolonged Economic Costs on Countries, IMF Research Finds
The IMF’s new research shows wars cause deep, lasting economic damage, shrinking output by roughly 7% over five years. The study finds these losses linger for more than a decade, outpacing impacts from financial crises or natural disasters. Simultaneously, global...
CII Proposes 20-Point Agenda to Support Indian Firms Amid Iran War Disruptions
India's Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has presented a 20‑point policy agenda to the government and the Reserve Bank of India to mitigate the fallout from the Iran‑West Asia war. The plan calls for coordinated fiscal, financial and trade actions,...
Ray Dalio Says US-China Ties Are Critical as World Enters Dangerous New Era
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warned that the United States‑China relationship is the single most critical factor for global stability as the world enters a "dangerous new era." He highlighted the escalating war on Iran and its ripple effects on the...
The New Trump Trades: How Investors Are Navigating Iran Shocks
Investors are crafting a new “Trump trade” playbook after Donald Trump’s cease‑fire pledge in the Iran war, focusing on higher‑for‑longer oil prices, currency shifts, and bond market mispricings. Oil futures trade around $79, with analysts expecting a floor near $85...
Oil Tumbles Below $100 After Trump Announces Two-Week Ceasefire
Oil fell below $100 a barrel after President Donald Trump announced a two‑week ceasefire with Iran, promising a safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent settled at $91.80 and WTI at $92.62, while European diesel dropped 20.8 percent to $1,210.50...
Shipping Far From Normalcy After Hormuz Truce
The conditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after President Donald Trump’s cease‑fire announcement has eased market panic, but shipping remains far from normal. Roughly 800 vessels with more than 20,000 crew members are still stranded in the Persian Gulf....
Faisal Islam: Iran War Pause Is Welcome but the Economic Scars Will Last
The cease‑fire in the Iran‑Israel conflict has eased the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a 15% drop in oil and gas prices and a rally in equity markets. Over the past six weeks, roughly 800 vessels were stranded,...
Can Philippines Become Critical Minerals Powerhouse with Help From US, Japan?
The United States and Japan are partnering with the Philippines to develop its vast critical‑minerals deposits and cut reliance on China. A CNAS report highlights the Philippines’ fourth‑largest copper and fifth‑largest nickel reserves, plus roughly $1 trillion in untapped gold, zinc...
The US Tariff Shock in 2025 vs 2026 – Same Negative Impact, Different Drivers
New US tariffs implemented in 2025 raised the effective rate by 8.1 percentage points, leading to an estimated 4.2% drop in EU‑US exports after accounting for front‑running effects. While Irish pharmaceutical shipments temporarily boosted trade, the overall impact was a modest...
Kremlin Plotting Ban on Major Box Carriers Entering Russian Ports
The Kremlin is drafting a decree that would bar foreign‑owned container lines from calling at Russian ports unless they are majority Russian‑owned and prioritize sanctioned cargo. The draft specifically names CMA CGM, Maersk, OOCL and X‑Press Feeders as prohibited carriers. The...
As War Premiums Hit Groceries, China Deals Give Africa Room to Breathe
The recent disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel, inflating diesel, fertilizer and food costs in vulnerable African economies. At the same time, China announced zero‑tariff access for imports from 53 African countries,...
Taiwan CPI Rises 1.2% in March; Bigger Increase Expected in April: DGBAS
Taiwan's consumer price index rose 1.2% year‑on‑year in March, with core CPI climbing to 1.94%. Government price‑stabilisation kept gasoline at about NT$30.64 (≈$0.98) per litre, despite a 70% surge in OPEC oil prices. The import price index jumped 8.53%, the...
How the E-Bike Industry Just Pushed Back Against and Won on (some) Tariffs
The White House announced that bicycles, e‑bikes and frames will be exempt from the proposed Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs, and it also removed existing metal‑content duties on e‑bikes. The victory came after PeopleForBikes coordinated a campaign that generated more...
Iran Conflict: How Food Can Prepare for Fertiliser Shortages
The temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent fertilizer prices soaring 20‑45%, inflating costs for staple grains such as wheat, rice and maize. Experts warn that the chokepoint could shut again, exposing global food systems to recurring input shocks....
Iran’s Hormuz Toll Demand: UNCLOS Violation or Legitimate Right? 10-Point Plan Tests Global Trade Rules
Iran has presented a ten‑point peace proposal that hinges on a two‑week cease‑fire, demanding U.S. acceptance of its control over the Strait of Hormuz and the right to collect transit tolls. The plan also seeks full sanctions relief, nuclear enrichment...
Fragile Ceasefire Lifts Markets as Trump Threatens 50% Tariffs on Iran Arms Suppliers
A tentative ceasefire between Iran and Israel sparked a brief rally in global equity markets, easing investor anxiety. At the same time, President Donald Trump announced a potential 50% tariff on any country that supplies weapons to Iran, reigniting trade...
Gold Climbs to Near Three-Week High After US, Iran Agree to Ceasefire
Gold surged to a near three‑week high, trading at $4,783.78 per ounce, after the United States and Iran announced a two‑week cease‑fire and opened talks on a permanent peace. The cease‑fire sent oil prices tumbling more than 13% below the...
Middle East War: Global Economic Fallout
A two‑week US‑Iran cease‑fire has reopened the Strait of Hormuz, allowing the first two merchant vessels to transit and prompting a sharp drop in oil and gas prices. Iran’s drone strikes on Kuwait’s power, desalination and oil facilities underscore the...
Marine Insurers Say Heightened Risks Remain in the Gulf
Marine insurers welcomed the cease‑fire announced by President Donald Trump and Iran, but warned that normal shipping through the Gulf will not resume immediately. Lloyd’s Market Association’s Neil Roberts said underlying tensions remain, keeping the Strait of Hormuz at heightened...
CNBC: JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon Flags Risks in Geopolitics, AI and Private Markets
JP Morgan chief executive Jamie Dimon told CNBC that 2026’s macro backdrop is fraught with three intertwined threats: escalating geopolitical volatility, the rapid, unregulated expansion of artificial intelligence, and stretched valuations in private‑equity markets. He warned that heightened US‑China tensions and Middle‑East...
US Stock Index Futures Climb over 2% on Relief From US-Iran Ceasefire
U.S. and Iran announced a two‑week cease‑fire, prompting Wall Street futures to jump more than 2% across the board. Crude oil prices slumped 13.7% to about $94 a barrel as traders anticipate resumed flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Energy...
Middle East: Middle East Conflict Pushes PIX GCC Testliner, Fluting Indices Higher in March
The March Fastmarkets PIX indices for GCC containerboard jumped about 4.4%, with testliner reaching $482.44 per tonne and fluting $457.33 per tonne. Disruptions from the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced Saudi corrugators to shift from imported recycled...
Pakistan as Peacemaker Facilitates the US-Iran Ceasefire
Pakistan’s diplomatic team, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, brokered a two‑week cease‑fire between the United States and Iran, prompting Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump, after a public threat of nuclear action, accepted Pakistan’s appeal and...
Rupee Likely to Stabilise at 92-93 Level: EAC-PM Chairman
The Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister said the Indian rupee is likely to settle between 92 and 93 per U.S. dollar after recent volatility from global tensions and foreign institutional investor outflows. A temporary cease‑fire between the United...
Oil Slides as US, Iran Agree Two-Week Ceasefire
The United States and Iran have agreed to a two‑week cease‑fire that reopens the Strait of Hormuz, allowing over 800 trapped vessels to resume transit. Crude oil prices plunged about six percent, marking the steepest drop in nearly six years...
IEA: $60bn of Investment Needed to Diversify Global Rare Earth Supply Chains
The International Energy Agency warns that China's grip on rare‑earth supply chains jeopardises up to $6.5 trillion of global economic activity each year. It estimates that roughly $60 billion of investment over the next decade is required to build diversified sources for...
Market Digest: IFF, KBH
Argus’s April market digest notes that 4Q25 U.S. GDP was revised down to a 0.7% annualized gain, reflecting weaker exports, government spending and corporate capital investment. The war with Iran has pushed WTI crude to about $100 a barrel, inflating...
The Cease-Fire Mirage: Here’s Why Stock-Market Bulls May Already Be Getting Ahead of Themselves
An 11th‑hour U.S.–Iran cease‑fire sparked a sharp equity rally, lifting the S&P 500 two‑thirds of its February losses while oil prices fell. Goldman Sachs senior trader Rich Privorotsky warned that the market may be chasing a fragile rally, noting the index...
Kharg Island Targeted in U.S. Strikes as Hormuz Tensions Lift Oil Prices
The United States launched precision strikes on military installations at Iran's Kharg Island, deliberately sparing the island's oil export terminals. The attacks, part of a broader campaign to pressure Tehran, coincided with President Trump's warning of a larger operation if...
EU-Mercosur Deal to Take Provisional Effect May 1; Limited Immediate Impact for Paper Industry Seen
The EU-Mercosur trade agreement will enter provisional effect on May 1, 2026 after the European Commission’s final procedural step. While the deal promises gradual tariff reductions for pulp, paper and board, no immediate eliminations occur and most cuts will be...
Iran Conflict Sparks Worst Month of Outflows Since Autumn Budget
The Middle East conflict sparked a sharp rise in equity fund outflows, reaching $1.78 bn in March – a 55% jump from February and the worst month since November 2025. UK equity funds led the sell‑off with $752 m withdrawn, while North...