Fed's Miran Makes Case for Small Balance Sheet
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran urged a substantial reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet, proposing a cut of $1‑$2 trillion to restore a more neutral monetary stance. He suggested easing liquidity‑coverage‑ratio rules, destigmatizing repo and discount‑window facilities, and allowing securities to mature rather than selling at a loss. Miran warned that a shift to scarce reserves would increase short‑term rate volatility and require active liquidity management. The proposal gains relevance as President Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh, who favors a smaller balance sheet, awaits Senate confirmation.
This Map Shows a Crude Ticking Time Bomb that Hits Much of the World’s Oil Supply in April
J.P. Morgan warns that recent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will trigger a cascading oil‑supply shock throughout April. The last tanker left the strait on Feb. 28, coinciding with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, and traffic has been largely...
Credit Outlook Steady as Fuel Subsidy Ditched
Thailand has ended its blanket fuel subsidy, raising pump prices by 6 baht (about $0.16) per litre. Analysts say the move removes a key trigger for a sovereign credit downgrade, but it also heightens stagflation risks as inflation could reach 3.2%...
Trump Pauses Plans to Attack Iranian Energy Infrastructure, as Nasdaq Falls Into Correction Territory
President Trump announced an additional ten‑day pause on attacks against Iran’s energy infrastructure after Thursday’s market close. U.S. equities tumbled, with the Nasdaq Composite falling more than 10% from its October 29 record high and entering correction territory. The S&P 500...
G-7 Aims to Balance Addressing Russia-Ukraine, Iran Wars
G‑7 foreign ministers gathered in France as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio prepares to steer the summit toward the Iran conflict, raising the prospect of diverting weapons earmarked for Ukraine. President Donald Trump’s criticism of NATO and push for...
Persian Gulf Fertilizer Crisis: Global Food Prices Could Rise 12-18% by the End of 2026, Warns Helios AI
Helios AI warns that if the Persian Gulf conflict ends tomorrow, global food prices could climb 12‑18% above pre‑crisis levels by the end of 2026 and rise further in early 2027. The startup’s model flags three sequential shocks: soaring fuel...
Iran Was Always Going to Close the Strait of Hormuz
Iran has moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, a tactic long embedded in its defence doctrine, after U.S. President Donald Trump extended a deadline threatening to strike Iranian power plants. The closure throttles roughly 20% of global oil and...
New MARAD Advisory Urges Ships to Disable AIS Tracking in Red Sea as Houthi Threat Lingers
The U.S. Maritime Administration issued a new advisory urging U.S.-flagged vessels transiting the Red Sea, Bab el‑Mandeb, Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea and Somali Basin to consider turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders. MARAD warns that Houthi militants...
Is This Time Different? The Macro Signals Driving Renewed Gold Interest
Gold has surged roughly 50% over the past year, dramatically outpacing the S&P 500’s 14.5% gain. The rally is driven by rising inflation, higher oil prices and heightened geopolitical risk, especially the Strait of Hormuz tension. Federal Reserve rate hikes...
Oil Prices Rise as Wall Street Swings to Doubt on Iran Talks
Oil prices jumped on March 26 as Brent crude rose 4.8% to $101.94 a barrel, driven by renewed doubts over the Iran‑U.S. cease‑fire talks and heightened tension in the Strait of Hormuz. The rally pushed the S&P 500 down 1.2%, the Dow...
It’s No Longer the ‘American Century,’ But the US Continues to Dominate in Important Ways
The United States continues to dominate key global pillars despite the waning of the so‑called “American Century.” Its dollar remains the world’s primary reserve currency and U.S. equities account for about half of global market capitalisation. The country leads high‑value...
War Adding $40-$50 Million per Week to Hapag-Lloyd's Costs: CEO
The Middle East conflict is inflating Hapag‑Lloyd’s operating costs by roughly $40 million to $50 million each week, according to CEO Rolf Habben Jansen. The surge stems primarily from higher bunker fuel prices, with insurance, container storage and inland transport also adding millions....
BOC Rogers: Will Have a Tough Job Dealing with Structural Changes to the Economy
The Bank of Canada (BoC) warned that structural shifts—declining immigration, evolving trade patterns and rapid AI adoption—will reshape Canada’s economy over the next five years. Combined with a recent rise in energy prices, these forces are expected to keep inflation...
What Iran’s Attacks on Turkey Reveal About NATO’s Future
Iran launched three ballistic missiles toward Turkish airspace, all intercepted by NATO air defenses, including an explosion near Incirlik Air Base. In response, NATO reinforced Turkey’s defenses by deploying a U.S. Patriot system near the Kürecik radar site. The incidents...
Goldman Says the US Could Lose 10,000 Jobs a Month This Year as the Oil Shock Ripples Through the Economy
Goldman Sachs warns that the recent oil price shock could erase about 10,000 new jobs each month in the United States through the end of 2026. The bank projects the unemployment rate climbing to roughly 4.6% by year‑end, driven by...
US Sells 7-Year Notes at 4.255% vs 4.252% WI
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $44 billion of 7‑year notes at a 4.255% yield, just 0.3 basis points above the when‑issued rate, a tighter tail than the 2.0 bps and 1.3 bps seen in recent 2‑year and 5‑year sales. Meanwhile, 2‑year yields surged 8.8 bps...
WTO's Dispute Settlement System Should Be Fully Functional, Says Piyush Goyal
India urged WTO members to restore a fully functional dispute settlement system, warning that the current paralysis deprives nations of effective redress. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal also called for a careful review of the ongoing moratorium on customs duties for...
The Iran War Has Already Unleashed a $25 Billion Energy Repair Bill
The ongoing Iran conflict has already generated an estimated $25 billion in energy‑sector repair costs, according to industry analysts. Damage to key oil refineries, pipelines and the strategic Kharg Island hub is forcing Iran to divert resources toward emergency reconstruction. The...
UAE Advances Alternative Trade Route to Bypass Strait of Hormuz
The United Arab Emirates is fast‑tracking a new trade corridor that connects its eastern Khorfakkan port in Sharjah to Saudi Arabia’s Dammam, allowing cargo to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The corridor combines maritime access via the Gulf of Oman...
Oil Price Surge Is Hurting African Economies: Scholars in Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, and South Africa Take Stock
Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel after the United States and Israel attacked Iran, prompting Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of global oil. The disruption has sent fuel costs soaring across Africa, prompting...
Spectator, Beneficiary, Player: Russia’s Strategy in the Iran War, From Oil to Drones
Russia is adopting a calibrated stance in the Iran war, offering diplomatic backing and possibly drone assistance to Tehran while steering clear of direct military engagement. Simultaneously, Moscow has dispatched modest oil shipments to Cuba as low‑cost geopolitical signaling. The...
India, US Face Off over E-Commerce Moratorium at WTO Meet
India has asked WTO members to carefully reconsider the e‑commerce duty moratorium, warning of revenue losses and an ambiguous definition of "electronic transmissions." The United States, meanwhile, is pressing for the moratorium to become a permanent, duty‑free regime to protect...
India Holds Bilateral Meetings with EU, Russia, NZ, Others on MC14 Sidelines
India’s Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal conducted bilateral meetings with delegations from the EU, Russia, New Zealand, Peru and Mexico on the sidelines of the WTO’s 14th ministerial conference. The talks reviewed progress on the recently concluded India‑EU free trade agreement and...
Belt-Tightening Mode
The Philippines is entering a belt‑tightening phase as a four‑week‑old Middle East conflict drives global oil prices higher, eroding the peso and inflating consumer costs. A temporary suspension of petroleum excise taxes will cut government revenue by roughly $2.5 billion, potentially...
Trump: Very Substantial Talks Are Going on with Iran
President Donald Trump announced that “very substantial” talks are ongoing with Iran after Tehran sent a convoy of oil tankers as a goodwill gesture. Iran initially offered eight tankers, later adding two, for a total of ten, reportedly under Pakistani...
After Maduro: Latin America’s Policy Community Reassesses the US-China Balance
The United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, prompting a hard‑power display that many Latin American analysts view as a game changer for regional geopolitics. The move reinforces U.S. coercive dominance while exposing China’s limited military reach,...
Peter Mandelson’s Resignation ‘Slowed’ UK-US Trade Talks, Says US Ambassador
U.S. ambassador Warren Stephens said Peter Mandelson’s September resignation slowed the rollout of the UK‑U.S Economic and Prosperity Deal signed in May 2026. While the framework was quickly signed in the Oval Office, implementation has lagged, especially on pharmaceutical funding,...
Letters to Editor
The letters to the editor flag four pressing issues for India. A halted Russian oil import and the Hormuz Strait closure have strained the country’s energy supply, prompting calls for domestic gas, electric‑vehicle adoption, solar power and local oil extraction....
Costa Rica Colon Hits Two-Decade High, Pressuring Central Bank
Costa Rica’s colon surged to 465 per U.S. dollar, its strongest level since 2005, marking a 7% gain this year. The rally was driven by robust export growth and increased foreign investment. In response, the central bank intervened, purchasing roughly...
Middle Eastern Conflict Compounding Already Volatile Fertilizer Markets
U.S. farmers are confronting a new wave of fertilizer cost pressure as the Middle Eastern conflict has shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for sulfur imports. The disruption threatens sulfur supplies essential for producing sulfuric acid, a core...
Cardoso Says the CBN Will Stay the Course as Reforms Yield Dividends
Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Olayemi Cardoso reaffirmed the regulator’s commitment to ongoing reforms, highlighting eleven straight months of disinflation and a newly liberalised foreign‑exchange market that no longer requires intermediaries. He noted that 32 banks have satisfied the latest...
West Asia Conflict to Strain India's FY27 Fiscal Math, Says ICRA
India’s FY 2027 budget faces heightened pressure as the West Asia conflict drives global crude oil to $157 a barrel and natural‑gas prices to $22 per MMBtu, more than double pre‑crisis levels. Higher energy costs are expected to lift fertilizer and...
Saudi Wealth Fund Commits to Global Investments Despite Iran War
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, led by Governor Yasir Al Rumayyan, reaffirmed its commitment to global investments despite the rising economic burden of the war with Iran. Al Rumayyan described the kingdom’s macroeconomic and physical position as strong, stable and resilient. He...
US Pressured France to Disinvite South Africa From G7 Summit, Pretoria Alleges
South Africa claims France withdrew President Cyril Ramaphosa’s invitation to the June G7 summit after the United States threatened to boycott the meeting if he attended. France, holding the G7 rotating presidency, cited logistical reasons and instead invited Kenya as...
OECD Says Iran War Has Erased Global Growth Upgrade
The OECD warns that the Iran‑Israel conflict has halted the global growth upgrade, as near‑total disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz pushes energy prices higher. Global GDP growth is now projected to fall to 2.9% in 2026,...
Why Are 110 Certified Indian Ship Recycling Yards Frozen Out by Brussels?
The European Commission’s 15th edition of the European List of Ship Recycling Facilities names 41 approved yards, all outside South Asia, despite more than 110 Indian and 23 Bangladeshi yards holding Hong Kong Convention compliance certificates. South Asian facilities now process...
The Security Architecture of the Taiwan-US Trade Deal
On February 12, 2026 Taiwan and the United States signed the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART), eliminating tariffs on roughly 99 percent of bilateral goods and expanding market access across multiple sectors. Beyond tariff cuts, the pact embeds a security architecture...
India’s Cotton Imports Surge in 2025 as Lower Global Prices Drive Buying Spree
India’s cotton imports jumped 130% in volume and 92.5% in value in 2025, driven by a steep fall in global cotton prices. Lower import prices prompted textile manufacturers to increase purchases, seeking cost savings and higher quality raw material. Brazil...
Trump Eyes China Deal, but Dragging Out Talks Risks Backlash, Warns Former Diplomat
Former U.S. diplomat Stephen Biegun says President Donald Trump will pursue an economic deal with China during his mid‑May visit to Beijing. The agenda is expected to focus on securing large‑scale Chinese purchases of American agricultural and manufacturing products. Biegun...
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Kim Meets Lukashenko as Russia Allies North Korea, Belarus Sign Friendship Treaty
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko signed a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation during Lukashenko’s first official visit to Pyongyang. The ceremony featured a 21‑gun salute, schoolchildren waving flags, and a military honor guard, underscoring...
As Long-Term Bonds Fail to Protect Again, Where Can Investors Find Safety?
Manulife Investment Management’s CIO Nathan Thooft warns that long‑duration U.S. Treasury bonds have again failed to act as a hedge, as equities and bonds moved together amid the US‑Israeli conflict and rising inflation. He argues that the positive equity‑bond correlation,...
Carney's Grand Ambition On Trade Does Not Include Trump
Former NATO secretary‑general Anders Fogh Rasmussen is championing a new “D7” trade coalition of affluent democracies to lessen reliance on U.S. trade policy. The idea, echoed by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, draws on the CPTPP and the European Union...
Trump’s Tariff War Has Failed on Every Front
President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff regime, launched over the past 14 months, has failed to meet its stated goals of boosting U.S. manufacturing and reshaping global trade. Instead, the duties have increased import prices, prompted retaliatory measures from key trading...
FMCG Companies Plan to Hike Prices, Cut Grammage
Fast‑moving consumer goods (FMCG) firms are preparing selective price hikes and smaller pack sizes as crude oil prices surge amid the West Asia conflict. Packaging and logistics costs have jumped 15‑20%, prompting companies like Parle, Dabur and AWL Agri to...
A Lost Decade for Bonds Means High-Quality Stocks Are Best Way to Protect...
Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson warns that bonds will deliver a lost decade of returns. He argues that persistent, three‑decade inflation driven by war‑related debt and pandemic stimulus makes high‑quality U.S. stocks the best hedge. Wilson recommends...
Europe Bond Market Doubts Grow Over Recovery From War Rout
European sovereign bond markets remain under pressure after a sharp sell‑off triggered by the Middle East war, and analysts say a swift end to the conflict is unlikely to spark a rapid rebound. Intermittent rallies have emerged on hopes of...
Fertiliser Price Surge Due to Iran War Coincides with US Planting Season
The renewed Iran war has disrupted urea and ammonium nitrate production, slashing exports and driving global fertilizer prices up roughly 30 percent. The price surge coincides with the critical U.S. planting window, adding $10‑$20 per acre to corn fertilizer costs....
Consumer Outlook on UK Economy Falls to Two-Year Low
BRC‑Opinium data released in early March shows UK consumer confidence plunging to –53, the lowest reading since the index began in 2024 and a sharp decline from –30 in February. While retail spending ticked up modestly (+2 points), personal financial...
The Iran War Is Hitting Every Node in the LNG Supply Chain
The ongoing war in Iran is disrupting every node of the regional liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply chain, choking exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. With Gulf output curtailed, European and Asian buyers are forced to vie for...
What’s Next for Cuba?
The Trump administration has imposed a de facto blockade on Cuba’s fuel imports, plunging the island into a deep economic and humanitarian crisis. President Donald Trump repeatedly declares the Cuban regime’s “imminent demise” yet offers no concrete roadmap for post‑regime governance....