Forecast Inflation Jump Comes with Doubts and Uncertainty, OCR Held at 2.25%
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% as global uncertainty and a volatile oil market persisted. Inflation forecasts were nudged higher, with the Monetary Policy Committee expecting a 3% rise in the March quarter and 4.2% in June, assuming Dubai crude falls below $100 a barrel. Fuel supplies remain ample, covering roughly 62.6 days of demand after a 16% dip in oil prices following a Middle‑East ceasefire. Analysts note the bank is taking supply‑shock risks more seriously and may consider a rate hike later in the year.
Oil Prices Plunge Below $100/Bbl After US, Iran Agree on 2-Week Ceasefire
Oil prices plunged about 14% on Wednesday as Brent fell to $95.17 and WTI to $96.41, both slipping below the $100 per barrel threshold. The drop follows a two‑week cease‑fire agreement between the United States, Israel and Iran and a...
USTR Section 301 Forced Labor Investigations: Tariff Risk, UFLPA Overlap, and What Companies Should Do Now
The U.S. Trade Representative has launched Section 301(b) investigations into forced‑labor enforcement gaps in 60 major trading partners, expanding risk from product‑level actions to potential country‑wide tariffs. The probe runs alongside existing UFLPA and CBP measures, creating layered compliance and cost...
Kenya, DRC, Ethiopia Growth Forecasts Trimmed as Fitch Warns of Tanzania’s Fragility
Fitch lowered its 2026 growth forecasts for Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Ethiopia, citing a hotter‑than‑expected inflation outlook driven by the Iran‑Israel conflict. Kenya’s projection fell to 5.0% from 5.2%, DRC to 5.2% from 5.7% and Ethiopia to...
Hong Kong Stocks Jump as Risk Appetite Returns After US and Iran Agree on Ceasefire
Hong Kong stocks surged 2.7% to 25,801 points after the United States and Iran announced a two‑week ceasefire, easing geopolitical tension. Brent crude fell 14% and WTI 15%, pushing both benchmarks below $100 a barrel and lifting risk appetite across...
JP Morgan Chief Warns of “Significant” Interest Rate Shocks
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the escalating conflict in Iran could trigger sharp oil and commodity price spikes, keeping inflation elevated and forcing interest rates higher than market expectations. He cited the war in Ukraine, Middle‑East hostilities, and...
2.66 Million Filipinos Jobless in February 2026
The Philippine Statistics Authority reported 2.66 million unemployed Filipinos in February 2026, lowering the unemployment rate to 5.1 % from 5.8 % in January. Employment rose to 49.43 million, while under‑employment remained at 11.8 % (5.84 million workers seeking more hours). The services sector continued to dominate,...
Here's What Smart People Are Saying About Trump's Ceasefire Deal with Iran
President Donald Trump announced a two‑week ceasefire with Iran, contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil corridor. Reactions split along partisan lines, with business leaders and foreign‑policy experts debating its durability. Analysts suggest the move is aimed...
United States: President Trump Tariffs on Patented Pharmaceuticals Under Section 232
On April 2, 2026 President Trump issued a proclamation imposing a 100% ad valorem tariff on most imported patented pharmaceuticals and related active ingredients, effective July 31 for some firms and September 29 for others. The decree creates tiered rates,...
DOE Chief: Damage to Oil Sites to Keep Prices High
Philippines Energy Secretary Sharon Garin warned that damage to oil infrastructure in the Middle East will keep fuel prices elevated even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. The country imports 98% of its crude oil from the region, and diesel...
New Homefront Crisis Ministerial Committee to Support Businesses, Workers & Households Amidst Disruptions and Rising Cost Pressures
Singapore has formed a Homefront Crisis Ministerial Committee to mitigate the fallout from the Strait of Hormuz closure, which has doubled Brent crude to $141 per barrel and LNG to $22 per MMBtu. The committee will secure essential fuels, bolster...
Oil Shock Sends Philippine Inflation Surging to 4.1% in March
Philippine inflation jumped to a near‑two‑year high of 4.1% in March, driven primarily by a sharp rise in transport costs as gasoline and diesel prices surged 27.3% and 59.5% respectively. Fuel pump prices now range from roughly $2.00 to $2.87...
Trump Announces Two-Week Ceasefire in Iran
President Donald Trump announced a two‑week ceasefire with Iran, contingent on Tehran’s immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal came just 90 minutes before a looming 8 p.m. deadline for potential U.S. strikes. Trump posted the deal...
Australian Made Welcomes EU Free Trade Deal as Boost for Manufacturing
The Australian Made Campaign hailed the Australia‑European Union Free Trade Agreement as a major boost for domestic manufacturers. The deal will eventually eliminate tariffs on 98% of Australian exports to the EU, granting duty‑free access for a wide range of...
Giant Stock Rally Erupts as Trump Offers Reprieve to Iran
President Donald Trump announced a two‑week deferment of a planned U.S. attack on Iran, hoping to secure a deal over the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement sparked a rapid rally in global equities, with Japan's Nikkei 225 jumping over 3%...
Latin American Airlines Appear Confident in Their Ability to Weather the Latest Fuel Spike Crisis
Latin American airlines are confronting a sharp rise in jet‑fuel costs triggered by the Middle East war, with crude prices nearing $150 per barrel. To protect margins, carriers are implementing fare hikes that are largely holding and are weighing capacity...
Trump Backs Down, but Questions Remain Over Iran and the Strait of Hormuz
President Trump escalated rhetoric on April 7, demanding Iran open the Strait of Hormuz, then backed down after a Pakistani‑mediated cease‑fire halted hostilities. The temporary truce restored oil, fertilizer and helium flows, calming markets that feared a global recession. However,...
Oil Prices Plunge Following U.S.-Iran Ceasefire
Crude oil prices plunged on Tuesday after President Trump announced a two‑week U.S.-Iran ceasefire, sending Brent futures down about 13% to roughly $95 a barrel and WTI about 14% to $96. The drop marks the steepest one‑day decline since the...
Stock Futures Surge, Oil Prices Slide as Trump Announces Two-Week Cease-Fire with Iran
President Donald Trump announced a two‑week cease‑fire with Iran, halting a planned U.S. bombing and securing an immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement sent U.S. stock futures soaring—S&P 500 up about 2.2% and Nasdaq‑100 up roughly 2.8%—while West...
South Korea Stocks Lead Gains in Asia as U.S.-Iran Agree to a Ceasefire
South Korean equities led an Asian rally on April 7 after President Donald Trump announced a two‑week suspension of planned attacks on Iranian infrastructure, contingent on the Strait of Hormuz reopening. The Kospi jumped nearly 6% while the Kosdaq rose...
Oil Prices Plunge Below $100 After Iran Agrees to Safe Passage Through Strait of Hormuz During Ceasefire
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude plunged 15% to $95.63 per barrel after President Donald Trump agreed to suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks in exchange for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The cease‑fire, brokered with Pakistan’s prime...
Trump-Iran Agree to Two-Week Ceasefire, Plan to Open Strait of Hormuz
President Donald Trump announced a two‑week suspension of planned attacks on Iranian infrastructure, contingent on Iran’s immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The cease‑fire follows intense social‑media threats and was negotiated with Pakistan’s prime minister and military...
Bond Rally Fades as Iran Says Ceasefire Violated
U.S. Treasury yields erased an early rally after an Iranian official declared the newly announced two‑week ceasefire with the United States was violated. The ceasefire, which had initially driven oil prices lower and softened inflation concerns, sparked a brief surge...
S. Korea Posts Record Current Account Surplus on Chip Exports
South Korea posted a record current‑account surplus of $23.2 billion in February 2026, the highest monthly figure ever recorded. The goods‑balance alone posted a $23.4 billion surplus as semiconductor exports surged nearly 30% year‑over‑year, dwarfing the modest 4% rise in imports. The...
Aliyev’s Tbilisi Visit Spotlights Georgia’s Shadow Leadership
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev visited Tbilisi on April 6, meeting Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze and President Mikheil Kavelashvili, but the most talked‑about encounter was a brief lunch with billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, the unelected founder of the ruling Georgian Dream party. Ivanishvili...
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan Strengthen Collaboration on Critical Minerals
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan launched a joint working group in Astana to coordinate prospecting, technology exchange, and extraction of critical minerals and rare earths. Both governments pledged to attract foreign investment and streamline cooperation. The initiative aligns with a U.S. push,...
Iran Updates: Pakistan Seeks 2-Week Pause After Trump Warns 'Whole Civilization Will Die' If No Deal by Deadline
U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran that a missed deadline would trigger massive strikes, claiming a "whole civilization" could die if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif appealed on X for a two‑week...
China’s New Trade Front with the World — Services
The country is rapidly moving up the global ranks as an exporter of knowledge-intensive products
Trump Says He's Extending the Deadline for Iran by 2 Weeks in Exchange for Immediate Opening of the Strait of...
President Donald Trump announced a two‑week extension of the deadline for a deal with Iran, contingent on the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The conditional ceasefire aims to create space for negotiations that could end the ongoing conflict....
The Iran Conflict Isn’t Panicking Investors — Yet. That’s About to Change.
Since the Iran conflict erupted in late February, U.S. equities have drifted lower but have not suffered a sharp sell‑off. Corporate bond spreads have stayed relatively narrow, and long‑term inflation expectations have risen only modestly. Wall Street analysts find the...
Transcript: Guns and Butter and Credit
The FT Unhedged podcast likens today’s economy to the 1960s “guns‑and‑butter” era, where soaring defence outlays and expansive fiscal stimulus coexist. Hosts warn that this combination could reignite inflation, putting long‑duration bonds and growth‑stock portfolios at risk. They note a...
Russia and China Veto UN Security Council Resolution on Hormuz Security
Russia and China vetoed a UN Security Council resolution aimed at endorsing defensive measures to secure the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian attacks. The text had been softened from authorizing "all necessary means" to merely encouraging naval escorts, yet it...
Only Virtual Talks, No New Investment Push Before Xi-Trump Summit: Greer
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said he will not travel to Beijing before the planned Trump‑Xi summit, opting instead for virtual preparatory talks. He emphasized that working‑level groups are already meeting regularly online and that there will be no new...
Dow Jones Futures Jump, Oil Prices Dive On Trump-Iran Cease-Fire; What To Do Now
Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures surged 2‑3% after President Trump announced a two‑week cease‑fire with Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil plunged about 15% to below $96 per barrel, while the 10‑year Treasury yield...
France’s Strait of Hormuz Problem
France, the Eurozone’s second‑largest economy, is confronting a fiscal shock as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven oil, gas and fertilizer prices up by roughly 60% and 50% respectively. Already running a budget deficit above five percent...
War-Driven Supply Squeeze Could Boost US Resins Exports in 2026
U.S. resin exporters are poised for another strong year in 2026 as the war in the Middle East tightens global feedstock supplies. Damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG plant and the shutdown of Iran’s South Pars gas field have curtailed ethane and...
Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum Hit European Machine Producers
The Trump administration implemented a flat 25% tariff on most European‑made machinery starting April 6, with a future 50% rate slated for steel‑heavy products. A limited 15% relief applies only to certain equipment, such as injection molding machines, until December 31 2027. The...
Can Pakistan Get the US and Iran Off the Ledge?
Pakistan has re‑emerged as a pivotal intermediary between Washington and Tehran after the Trump administration reversed the Biden‑era tilt toward India. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif posted a two‑week cease‑fire proposal, emphasizing Pakistan’s ties to Saudi Arabia and its recent mutual‑defense...
The Gulf’s Digital Transformation
The United Arab Emirates is positioning itself as the Gulf’s premier hub for digital assets, with regulators such as VARA, ADGM and the Securities and Commodities Authority creating a clear, activity‑based framework for tokenized securities, real estate and even oil‑backed...
Nasdaq Rises as Iran Deadline Draws Near: Stock Market Today
U.S. markets opened lower as Iran’s deadline loomed, but the Nasdaq managed a modest 0.1% gain while the Dow slipped 0.2%. Crude oil spiked 4.6% intraday, reaching $117.63 before easing to $112.27, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk from Tehran’s threats to...
Consumer Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Iran War Price Pressure
Consumer inflation expectations surged to 3.4% for the next year in March, driven by a 9.4% anticipated rise in gasoline prices amid heightened geopolitical tension with Iran. The New York Fed reported wage‑growth expectations slipping to 2.4%, the lowest since...
Freedom of Navigation May Not Return to the Strait of Hormuz
President Donald Trump hinted that the United States could begin charging tolls for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz once the Iran conflict ends, arguing that America’s victory justifies taking over Iran’s existing tolling system. The proposed fees could reach...
Muhlenkamp Quarterly Market Commentary – April 2026
U.S. and Israeli forces resumed combat against Iran in late February, prompting Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz and launch missile strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure. The conflict lifted crude oil to about $102 per barrel, boosted the DXY...
CBP Building Centralized Refund System for IEEPA Tariff Duties
U.S. Customs and Border Protection is creating a centralized, web‑based system to refund duties collected under International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs that the Supreme Court invalidated in February. The new Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries platform will...
Russia, China Block Hormuz Action at UN as Shipping Crisis Continues
The UN Security Council failed to adopt a Gulf‑backed resolution protecting navigation through the Strait of Hormuz after Russia and China vetoed it, exposing stark geopolitical rifts. The draft, backed by the United States, the United Kingdom and Gulf states,...
Iranians Face More Chaos as New Year Begins and Trump Sharpens Threat
Iranians returned to work after the Nowruz holidays to the sound of fighter jets, as domestic unrest intensifies. President Donald Trump escalated U.S. rhetoric, warning of a possible annihilation of Iran. The heightened military presence follows recent airstrikes on Tehran...
13 Everyday Items Getting More Expensive Because of the Iran War
The Iran‑Israel conflict has tightened the Strait of Hormuz, pushing global oil prices higher and sending U.S. gasoline above $4 per gallon for the first time in four years. Diesel now exceeds $5 per gallon, inflating transportation costs for food,...
China’s Emergence as a Backroom Mediator
China’s foreign ministry announced that Beijing helped broker a temporary cease‑fire between Pakistan and Afghanistan after senior officials met in Urumqi on April 2. The conflict, which has claimed 800‑1,000 lives, saw Pakistan report killing 796 Taliban fighters and destroying dozens...
'All Roads' Lead to Higher Prices: IMF Chief Sounds Dire Warning on Iran
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the Iran‑driven closure of the Strait of Hormuz has slashed global oil supply by roughly 13%, igniting a new wave of higher prices and slower growth. The shock is spilling into downstream markets...
Unions Prepare for UK Public Sector Pay Push as Inflation Bites
UK trade unions representing public‑sector workers are mobilising for a coordinated pay push as consumer‑price inflation hovers around 6%, eroding real wages. They are demanding wage settlements that at least match the inflation rate, warning that without adequate increases staff...