Unseen Momentum Could Be Mounting Behind the Yuan
Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff warns the Chinese yuan could become a global reserve currency within five years, challenging the U.S. dollar’s entrenched position. The dollar still processes about 58% of international transactions, while the yuan accounts for roughly 2% of cross‑border payments. China’s Cross‑Border Interbank Payments System (CIPS) and its rapidly advancing digital yuan suggest the yuan’s usage may be under‑reported. Rogoff recommends opening China’s bond market to foreigners and expanding CIPS to accelerate the yuan’s global standing.
Fertilizer Spike Adds up to $35/Acre for US Corn as Iran Crisis Deepens
Rising fertilizer prices triggered by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have created a sharp supply shock for nitrogen, phosphate and sulfur products. Rabobank estimates the urea price surge adds up to $35 per acre to US corn...
China and Russia Veto UN Resolution on Strait of Hormuz
The United Nations Security Council failed to adopt a draft resolution on freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz after China and Russia exercised their vetoes on 7 April 2026. The text, championed by Bahrain and Gulf Cooperation Council members,...
The Iran War Is Disrupting More Than Oil. Here’s What Could Get Expensive Next
The Iran‑Israel conflict is rippling through global commodity markets, pushing aluminum, helium, fertilizer, sulfur and plastics into shortage zones. Since February, aluminum has risen about 12% to $3,411 per metric ton after attacks on Middle‑East smelters, while helium supplies are...
Geopolitics, Inflation, & Crypto Resilience: What Advisors Need to Know
Markets faced heightened volatility as Gulf tensions revived oil price spikes and strained bond markets. The Federal Reserve confronts a mixed inflation picture, with the ISM manufacturing index hitting a four‑year high driven by input‑cost pressures, limiting rate‑cut flexibility. Meanwhile,...
What Happens Next
U.S. economic data for March showed continued manufacturing expansion and a surprisingly strong labor market despite ongoing Middle East tensions. The ISM Manufacturing index rose to 52.7, marking the third consecutive month above the neutral 50 threshold. Non‑farm payrolls increased...
EIA: Brent Crude to Reach $115/Bbl in Second-Quarter 2026
The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects Brent crude will climb to about $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, up from a March average of $103. The rise reflects a sharp tightening in supply as Gulf producers curtail...
Iran War: Russia and China Veto UN Resolution to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
Russia and China vetoed a UN Security Council resolution aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, after the draft was watered down to avoid their opposition. The vote was 11‑2, with Pakistan and Colombia abstaining, following President Trump’s threat to...
Hisham Ezz Al-Arab: Period of Transition
Egypt’s private sector now drives 78% of GDP and generated 94% of exports in 2023, with private investment hitting a record 65% of total capital. The government aims to boost private investment above 70% by 2030 and will list 20...
Oil Prices Rise Ahead of Trump's Deadline to Reopen Hormuz
Oil prices surged on April 7 as President Donald Trump set a final deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pushing U.S. WTI up 3.9% to $116.83 a barrel and Brent to $110.55. The heightened geopolitical risk dragged the...
Key Fed Official Says Interest Rate Hike Is Possible as Gas Prices Soar
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that soaring gasoline prices, now $4.14 per gallon, could force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates if inflation remains stubborn. The Fed has kept its benchmark rate steady at 3.5‑3.75% since December, but...
Why Energy Has Become a Foreign-Policy Weapon
The article argues that energy has re‑emerged as a potent foreign‑policy weapon, highlighted by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz which removes roughly 10 million barrels of oil and 20% of global LNG capacity from the market. Prices have surged—oil...
European Central Bank Official: 'Fossil Fuel Dependence Poses Risks to Price Stability'
ECB board member Frank Elderson warned that Europe’s dependence on oil, gas and coal heightens inflation risks and complicates the central bank’s price‑stability mandate. He argued that volatile energy markets, amplified by geopolitical tensions such as the Iran and Ukraine...
UK Strikes Lucrative Organic Livestock Deal with Japan
The United Kingdom and Japan have signed an organic livestock equivalency agreement, allowing British producers to sell certified meat and dairy products in Japan with a single UK certification. The deal opens access to Japan’s fast‑growing organic market, valued at...
US-Iran Talks Continuing, But Strikes on Saudi Arabia May Derail Effort, Say Sources
U.S. and Iran are engaged in high‑stakes talks mediated by Pakistan, but Tehran’s overnight strike on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail petrochemical complex threatens to derail the negotiations. President Trump has given Iran a deadline of 8 p.m. Washington time to lift its...
India Unlocks Market Access to Canada for Fresh Mangoes, Pomegranates, Oranges, and Garlic
India’s Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) has released a phytosanitary protocol that unlocks Canadian market access for fresh mangoes, pomegranates, oranges and garlic. The Canadian National Plant Protection Organization approved the access in January, but shipments...
USTR Greer: USMCA Can Remain a Trilateral Deal and Handle Bilateral Issues
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told a Hudson Institute audience that the US‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement can remain a trilateral framework while adding separate bilateral protocols for Mexico and Canada. The upcoming USMCA review, kicking off on July 1, will address grievances such...
The Philippine’s Strategic Dilemma in the Shadow of Middle East Conflict
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a national energy emergency as the U.S.-Iran war disrupted oil supplies, leaving the country with roughly 50 days of fuel reserves. Manila secured preferential access to Iranian crude and sought U.S. waivers to import...
Middle East: Key Trends Shaping 2026
The US‑Israeli war with Iran has plunged the Middle East into its deepest crisis in decades, rattling Gulf economies, global oil markets and supply chains. Prior to the escalation, GCC growth was outpacing the world, with Qatar at 6.1% and...
Container Vessel Reports Being Hit Off Iran
A fourth containership was struck about 25 nautical miles off Kish Island, near the northwestern entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, marking a rapid escalation of attacks in the Persian Gulf. The vessel sustained damage above the waterline but the...
Jeffrey Sherman on Oil, Deficits and the Private Credit Liquidity Trap | Bloomberg
Jeffrey Sherman, DoubleLine’s deputy CIO, warned that rising oil prices and energy‑sector infrastructure damage could sustain inflation longer than markets expect, pressuring global growth. He argued that higher energy costs function as a de‑facto monetary tightening, reducing the likelihood of...
US Household Goods Imports Flatten as Housing Weakness Weighs on Demand
U.S. household‑goods imports slipped 1.3% in 2025, reaching 5.3 million TEUs, as a faltering housing market curbed demand for furniture, appliances, and home furnishings. Builders reported fewer new‑home starts, while inflation and tighter credit squeezed consumer purchasing power. Retail earnings reveal...
Vape Makers Turn to 'Made in America' Credentials Amid Trump's Tariffs, Crackdown
U.S. vape makers are increasingly branding products as "Made in America" as the Trump administration tightens tariffs and cracks down on unlicensed Chinese devices. Reuters identified eight new brands that highlight American origins, though most lack FDA approval and many...
The Coming Inflation-Deflation Whipsaw
Dambisa Moyo warns that the global economy is entering a rare inflation‑deflation whipsaw. In the short term, geopolitical tensions and lingering supply‑chain shocks are pushing consumer prices higher. Over the longer horizon, rapid advances in artificial intelligence are expected to...
Crude Prices Soar as Iran War Looks to Escalate
Crude prices jumped 3.7% on April 7, with WTI May futures hitting a four‑week high as the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz. The New York Times reported Iran ended talks with Washington, while U.S. strikes on Kharg Island and...
Why Oil Markets Could Be Wildly Wrong on Strait of Hormuz
The article argues that oil markets may be overstating the impact of the Strait of Hormuz disruption, suggesting that while flows have been curtailed, they are not entirely halted. Analysts note that Iran is likely regulating traffic rather than enforcing...
How the Iran War Has Sowed Panic Among Farmers
The ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict has driven up global fertilizer and fuel costs, sparking panic among farmers worldwide. Prices for nitrogen‑based fertilizers have surged by more than 60%, while diesel rates have risen sharply due to disrupted shipping lanes in the...
The Road to De-Escalation With Iran
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is driving sharp increases in oil, liquefied natural gas, fertilizer and LPG prices worldwide. These spikes are inflating costs for cash‑strapped governments and jeopardizing food security in key agricultural regions. Analysts argue that...
Beyond Speed and Cost: The Push for Transparency in Cross-Border Payments
The cross‑border payments industry is shifting from a focus on speed and cost to a demand for total transparency, driven by the G20 roadmap and coordinated pressure from regulators, banks, fintechs, corporates, and consumers. Transparency comprises upfront fee and FX...
Bond Traders Risk Being Wrongfooted by 2022 Playbook, UBS Warns
UBS chief strategist Bhanu Baweja warns bond traders that markets are pricing a 2022‑style, coordinated central‑bank tightening in response to the Iran war, which may be unrealistic. He argues that the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England...
Sector Tariff Now More than a Threat – for some Rx Companies
Jiangsu and Shanghai Hengrui have patented selective Nav1.8 blockers that demonstrate potent pre‑clinical analgesic activity for chronic neuropathic pain. New research links chronic inflammatory signaling to early leukemic transformation in hematopoietic stem cells, suggesting anti‑inflammatory approaches could intervene before disease...
Oil Prices Reach Low Boil Ahead Of Strait Of Hormuz End Game
Crude oil prices climbed to $115.79 a barrel, the highest level since the Iran‑Israel conflict began, as the U.S. deadline for Tehran to relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz approaches. The S&P 500 slipped 0.9% amid fears that a further...
The War to Break Iran’s Economy
An unprecedented economic campaign against Iran is intensifying, as the United States, European Union and regional allies expand sanctions targeting oil exports, banking links and advanced technology. The measures have slashed Iran’s oil revenues by roughly half and forced the...
Little Evidence of Increase in USD Hedge Ratios
European investors have not increased their dollar hedges despite early‑year dollar weakness. Danish insurers and pension funds cut their FX hedge ratio to 70.3% in February, the lowest level since before April 2023. Private‑sector foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries has...
Iran War Sways Air Cargo Contract Negotiations
The Iran‑U.S. conflict is reshaping air‑cargo contract negotiations, prompting shippers to favor three‑month agreements over traditional annual deals. Spot rates surged to $2.86 per kilogram, a 14% year‑over‑year rise, while global cargo volumes slipped 3%. Jet fuel costs have nearly...
The Hormuz War Will End
The near‑closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed roughly 9‑10 million barrels of crude, 5 million barrels of refined products and 20% of global LNG from markets, creating the worst energy shock since the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Existing bypass pipelines...
The War Will End With a Hormuz Toll Booth
After months of conflict, Iran has begun operating a de‑facto toll booth in the Strait of Hormuz, collecting fees from vessels, some in yuan. Tehran is pushing a formal Iran‑Oman transit authority that would levy a modest $500,000 fee per...
Retailers Rely on This Tariff Mitigation Tactic. Congress Has Noticed.
Retailers are increasingly using the decades‑old First Sale customs rule to lower tariff liabilities, a tactic highlighted in Target’s 2025 SEC filing. The rule lets importers value goods at the earliest sale price in a multi‑tier supply chain, reducing duties...
US Shale Drillers Expected to Lift Crude Output
U.S. shale drillers are gearing up to increase crude output after a 68% price surge triggered by the Iran‑Israel conflict and Hormuz closure. With West Texas Intermediate trading around $115 per barrel—well above the $62‑$70 profit threshold—companies like Continental Resources...
Pre-Markets Lower Ahead of Important Day in Iran
U.S. pre‑market futures slipped Tuesday, with the Dow down 0.47%, the S&P 500 down 0.56%, and the Nasdaq down 0.75% as investors brace for President Trump’s deadline on Iran. February durable‑goods orders fell 1.4%, the weakest reading since October 2025, though...
Iran War: FAO Food Commodity Price Index Rises in March
The UN’s FAO Food Price Index climbed to 128.5 points in March, a 2.4% month‑on‑month rise marking a second consecutive increase. All five commodity groups – cereals, vegetable oils, meat, dairy and sugar – posted higher prices, led by a...
IMF Warns of Emerging Markets’ Exposure to ‘Flighty’ Hedge Funds
The International Monetary Fund warned that emerging‑market economies are becoming increasingly exposed to sudden capital outflows from hedge funds that can shift positions quickly. Hedge funds have expanded their holdings of sovereign and corporate debt in these markets, often using...
Hedge Funds Make Record Bets Against European Stocks
Hedge funds have placed record‑size short bets on European equities, pushing total short exposure to roughly €12 billion, a 40% year‑on‑year increase. The surge follows tightening monetary policy, lingering inflation, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty across the region. Data from trade repositories...
Why East Asia Isn’t Surprised by the Rupture in the Global Order
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Davos address framed the current geopolitical shift as a "rupture" and urged middle powers to act together. East Asian states have spent the past decade adapting to a waning U.S.-led order through deeper Washington engagement,...
Businesses Are Spending for the Future Despite Uncertain Times — a Good Omen for the Economy
Business investment climbed for the seventh time in eight months, reaching an all‑time high as firms poured capital into robotics, artificial intelligence and high‑performance computing. Core orders for durable goods rose 0.6% in February, lifting the year‑over‑year increase to 5.1%....
A Single Chokepoint Failure Reveals the Fragile Architecture of Africa’s Energy Supply Chain
The abrupt closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global oil, has halted tanker traffic and left African importers scrambling for fuel. Nations such as Kenya, Ethiopia and Zambia are already experiencing severe shortages and price...
JPMorgan Has Urgent Message on Iran War
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned in his 2026 shareholder letter that the ongoing war in Iran could reignite persistent inflation and push U.S. interest rates higher, potentially nudging the economy toward recession. He linked possible oil and commodity price shocks...
FDA-Approved Drug Manufacturing Deals Shift to Europe
In 2025, U.S. contract manufacturing deals for FDA‑approved drugs fell sharply, while Europe recorded more than three times the U.S. volume. Despite a 15% U.S. tariff on EU pharmaceuticals, major U.S. firms such as Johnson & Johnson and Vertex invested...
Equity Markets In The Eye Of The Storm
US equity markets entered 2026 on a solid macro footing, with earnings projected to rise near 10% and nominal GDP accelerating. While the Middle East conflict has spiked commodity prices, analysts expect the war to resolve within months, allowing energy...
Submit Your Questions: How Will the Iran War Impact China?
A live Ask‑an‑Expert session is scheduled for April 10, featuring Joe Leahy and Cheng Leng from Bloomberg's Beijing bureau. The discussion will focus on how the ongoing Iran‑Israel war could reshape China's strategic, economic, and energy interests. Participants can submit...