Iran War Jeopardizes U.S. Global Leadership, Warns Italian Minister
Italy’s defence minister Guido Crosetto warned that the escalating Iran conflict jeopardises U.S. global leadership, citing the danger of nuclear escalation. He highlighted Italy’s recent refusal to allow U.S. aircraft to use the Sigonella base for Middle‑East operations, reflecting broader NATO hesitancy toward President Trump’s hard line on Iran. Crosetto also criticised the lack of dissent within the White House, suggesting Trump needs braver advisers. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has been touring Gulf states to safeguard Italy’s energy supplies amid rising fuel prices.
Seeking Safe Havens in a Risk-Averse Environment
CME Group released a video titled “Seeking Safe Havens in a Risk‑Averse Environment,” outlining how investors can use derivatives to protect capital amid heightened market volatility. The presentation stresses the growing demand for low‑correlation assets such as Treasury futures, gold...
Stagflation Is Food Manufacturing’s Worst-of-Both-Worlds Scenario
Stagflation is resurfacing in food manufacturing as soaring energy and fertilizer costs collide with waning consumer demand. Brent crude has rebounded above $90 a barrel, pushing the FAO Food Price Index up 2.4% in March 2026 and inflating raw‑material expenses....
Trump Floats US Toll on Hormuz
President Donald Trump suggested the United States could levy tolls on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that moves about 20 % of global oil and LNG. The proposal would require a U.S. military presence despite the strait lying...
France March Final Services PMI 48.8 vs 48.3 Prelim
France's services Purchasing Managers' Index slipped to a final 48.8 in March, down from the preliminary 48.3 and well below the 49.6 reading in February. The decline was driven by a sharp drop in new business orders, with respondents citing...
Italy March Services PMI 48.8 vs 50.9 Expected
Italy’s services Purchasing Managers' Index slipped to 48.8 in March, well below the 50.9 forecast, signalling a contraction for the fourth time in 30 months. Output and new business fell sharply while input‑price inflation surged to its highest level in...
Black Sea Oil Hubs in Crosshairs After Drone Strikes
Ukraine intensified drone attacks on Russian oil export hubs in the Black Sea, striking the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal near Novorossiysk. The strikes damaged a single point mooring, loading infrastructure, four storage tanks, and six of seven berths at...
Gabriel Makhlouf: Bridge to the Future - Mobilising Europe's Savings in a Fragmenting World
Gabriel Makhlouf, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, warned that Europe’s household deposits now total roughly $11 trillion, yet investment falls far short of the $818‑$872 billion needed annually by 2030. He linked this gap to weak growth, persistent Single Market...
François Villeroy De Galhau: Little Time Left to Wake up - Can We Reconcile Europe with Speed?
François Villeroy de Galhau used his final Eurofi speech as Governor of the Banque de France to warn that Europe is running out of time to act on known reforms. He stressed that the continent knows what must be done,...
UK Business Confidence Hits Record Low
The Institute of Directors’ Economic Confidence Index plunged to a record low of –76 in March, down from –63 in February, while confidence in individual organisations turned negative for the first time in months. Cost‑expectations surged to +88, the second‑highest...
Ida Wolden Bache: Policy Rate Kept Unchanged at This Meeting
Norway’s central bank, Norges Bank, left its policy rate unchanged at 4 percent, citing persistent inflation above the 2 percent target and heightened uncertainty from rising energy prices. The committee warned that a rate increase is likely in upcoming meetings as wage...
Could Canada Join the EU? Most Canadians Would Not Rule It Out
A Spark Advocacy poll shows roughly half of Canadians consider EU membership worth exploring, while only 17% outright reject the idea. France’s foreign minister hinted Canada could become a future EU candidate, signaling diplomatic openness. The poll reflects growing curiosity...
Gold Tracks More Sideways Awaiting Further US-Iran Developments
Gold hovered around $4,640 on the day, slipping just 0.1% and remaining trapped in the $4,600‑$4,700 band that formed after last week’s drop. The metal tested the 100‑hour moving average near $4,660, while the daily 200‑day average around $4,658 continues...
Carolyn Rogers: An Anchor of Stability in Uncertain Times
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers addressed the Brandon Chamber of Commerce, warning that Canada faces three structural forces—U.S. protectionism, demographic slowdown, and artificial intelligence—that are reshaping the economy. She highlighted how trade‑policy volatility, especially Chinese canola tariffs and the upcoming...
Serbia, Hungary and North Macedonia Sign MoU with Focus on BuBe Railway
Serbian rail freight operator Srbija Kargo, Hungary’s Rail Cargo Hungaria and North Macedonia’s railway signed a memorandum of understanding to launch a synchronized rail service focused on the Budapest‑Belgrade line. The corridor, opened for freight in February, is positioned as...
Exclusive-Russia Supplies Iran with Cyber Support, Spy Imagery to Hone Attacks, Ukraine Says
Russian reconnaissance satellites conducted at least 24 passes over 46 military and critical sites in 11 Middle Eastern countries during March 21‑31, sharing high‑resolution imagery with Iran. The data preceded Iranian missile and drone attacks on bases, including a strike on...
What Are the Main Events for Today?
The final PMI releases for the eurozone and the United Kingdom showed rising inflation and a slowdown in economic activity, confirming earlier preliminary trends. Market reaction is expected to be muted as investors focus on escalating US‑Iran tensions. In the...
India Plans Sovereign Guarantees on Loans to Businesses Hit by Iran War, Sources Say
India will issue sovereign credit guarantees for up to $26.7 bn in loans to firms hurt by the Iran‑Israel conflict, targeting especially small and medium‑size enterprises. The program, modeled on pandemic‑era guarantees, will run for four years and cost the treasury...
FAO Warns Global Food Prices Will Continue to Increase if Iran War Lasts
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization said the Food Price Index rose 2.4% in March, its highest level since September 2022, as oil‑driven energy costs lift commodity prices. Wheat prices jumped 4.3% while fertilizer cost pressures threaten planting decisions in...
Oil Shock Pushes Thailand’s Inflation Toward Positive Territory
Thailand’s year‑long deflation streak is weakening as oil price spikes and Middle East supply disruptions feed through to consumer prices. The Commerce Ministry reported a 0.08 % year‑over‑year decline in the CPI for March, the twelfth consecutive month of falling prices...
Singapore Minister Warned Worst Case Not Fully Priced
Singapore’s Foreign Affairs Minister Vivian Balakrishnan warned that the war in Iran could trigger a deeper energy shock than markets currently anticipate. He highlighted that Singapore generates over 95% of its electricity from imported natural gas, with roughly half of...
EU Lumber Exports to UAE Slid 14% — Then the Strait of Hormuz Closed
European lumber exports to the UAE fell 14% in January, dropping to 29,500 cubic metres, while the average price rose 6% to $332 per cubic metre, 20% above a year earlier. The decline coincides with the closure of the Strait...
China Started Preparing for an Energy Crisis Long Before the Iran War
China has been quietly building a buffer against energy disruptions for years, stockpiling oil and accelerating renewable projects. Its aggressive shift toward solar, wind, hydro and electric vehicles has already cut domestic demand for refined oil, diesel and gasoline. Simultaneously,...
Sky-High Fuel Prices Will Drive Ship Efficiency Retrofits
U.S. efforts to block the IMO’s Net Zero Framework are unintentionally accelerating maritime sustainability as Middle‑East attacks drive bunker fuel prices to historic highs. The surge in marine fuel costs dramatically shortens the payback horizon for efficiency retrofits, making measures...
Chart Alert: Japan’s Nikkei 225 Is Flashing Bearish Breakdown Conditions ...
Japan’s Nikkei 225 has reversed sharply, losing 9.2% since Feb 28, turning from early‑year outperformance into one of the world’s worst‑performing indices. The decline is driven by rising stagflation concerns as crude oil stays above $100 per barrel amid the ongoing...
EDITORIAL: Mideast War Tests Economic Resilience
More than a month after the Middle East war began, surging oil prices are driving inflation in Taiwan. The National Development Council expects CPI up about 1.5% month‑over‑month, while the manufacturing PMI stays above 50, indicating continued expansion. Export growth...
Tankers with Qatar LNG Attempt to Exit the Strait of Hormuz
Two Qatar‑linked LNG tankers, Al Daayen and Rasheeda, moved toward the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first possible loaded transit since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began in late February. The waterway’s effective closure has halted about one‑fifth of global...
Saudi Arabia Raises Asia Oil Price to Record
Saudi Aramco announced a record‑high Arab Light price for Asia, adding a $19.50 premium over regional benchmarks for next‑month sales. The hike follows a widening Middle East conflict and Iran’s near‑closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has strained global...
Airstrikes on Iran Kill 25; Ceasefire Proposal Shared
Israel and the United States launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran, killing at least 25 people, including IRGC intelligence chief Majid Khademi, and striking the strategic South Pars gas field. Tehran responded with missile attacks on Haifa and Gulf allies, prompting air‑defence alerts...
Trump's Deadline Looms but Asian Nations Already Have Deals with Iran
President Trump warned Iran of a "one‑night" strike unless the Strait of Hormuz was reopened by Tuesday night. While the deadline loomed, several Asian nations – including the Philippines, India, Pakistan and China – secured bilateral agreements with Tehran for...
‘A Whole Civilisation Will Die Tonight’: Trump Ramps up Iran Threats as Deadline Draws Nearer
Donald Trump escalated rhetoric against Iran, posting a bombastic Truth Social message that a "whole civilisation will die tonight" and setting an 8 p.m. Eastern deadline for possible strikes. The warning sent European markets into early‑day volatility, with the FTSE 100,...
Iran Conflict Pushes Advisor Sentiment to Lowest in Nearly a Year
The Financial Advisor Confidence Outlook (FACO) survey showed sentiment slipping to a -8 score in April, the lowest level in nearly a year. The decline was driven by heightened geopolitical risk from the Iran war and lingering dissatisfaction with the...
RBB Bancorp Director Christopher Lin to Retire Following Annual Meeting
Iran rejected a U.S.-backed cease‑fire proposal, prompting President Trump to warn that Tehran "could be taken out" if negotiations fail. The rejection sparked a modest rise in oil prices and lifted U.S. equity markets, which closed higher on renewed hopes...
Pundits Warn of Stagflation Risk
Thailand is confronting a growing stagflation threat as soaring global oil prices lift domestic fuel costs and inflation. Public debt has risen to 66% of GDP, near the 70% legal ceiling, curbing the new government’s ability to launch broad fiscal...
Markets Close Slightly up as Trump Ties Hormuz Reopening to Iran Ceasefire, Tehran Rejects Proposal
President Trump has made reopening the Strait of Hormuz a non‑negotiable condition for any cease‑fire with Iran, setting a Tuesday evening deadline. Tehran rejected the Pakistan‑brokered proposal, insisting on a broader, permanent peace that includes sanctions relief and reconstruction support....
Iran War: Global Airfreight Pricing Continues to Rise
The Iran‑War‑driven closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed jet fuel prices above $2 per gallon, more than doubling since February. Higher jet fuel costs have become the primary driver of rising global air‑freight rates, which reached a new...
Report: Global Freight Markets Rocked by Iran War Effects
The Iran War has triggered a freight‑market shock, with jet fuel prices soaring to $197 a barrel and air, ocean and rail rates climbing sharply. Dimerco’s April 2026 Asia‑Pacific Freight Report shows air freight up 20‑50% and rail container fees...
Southeast Asia Oil Crisis Puts Sovereign Ratings at Risk
Southeast Asian governments are scrambling to subsidize soaring fuel prices after Brent crude topped $90 a barrel, adding a heavy fiscal burden to Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia. The subsidies, intended to quell public unrest, are swelling budget deficits...
Charai for The Jerusalem Post: Trump and the End of Tehran’s Illusion
Ahmed Charai argues that former President Donald Trump’s renewed pressure on Tehran has shattered Iran’s belief it can dictate regional outcomes. By reinstating maximum‑sanctions regimes and supporting a tougher stance on Iran’s nuclear program, the U.S. forced Tehran to confront...
Offbeat Wall Street Research Firm Says It Sent an Analyst to Strait of Hormuz. Here's What They Learned
Citrini Research sent an analyst by boat to Oman’s Musandam Peninsula to watch shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, reporting roughly 15 vessels per day – far below normal but still active. The firm argues that many ships turn off...
Services Sector Slows as Iran War Fuels Inflation: ISM Survey
The ISM reported that the U.S. services sector slowed in March as the Iran conflict disrupted supply chains and pushed inflation higher. The non‑manufacturing index slipped 2.1 points to 54%, while the employment index fell to its lowest level since...
As Iran’s Civilian Economy Crumbles, Its Military Economy Grows Stronger
In the first month of the U.S.-Israel campaign against Iran, strikes have largely avoided civilian infrastructure, focusing instead on strategic energy assets such as Kharg Island and the South Pars gasfield. The sustained pressure of sanctions and war‑related disruptions is...
The Iran War Is Driving up Produce Prices
The ongoing Iran war has triggered a sharp rise in global fuel prices, directly inflating transportation costs for fresh produce. As shipping expenses climb, retailers are passing the added burden onto consumers, resulting in higher grocery bills for fruits and...
ASX Set to Retreat, Wall Street Loses Steam After Trump’s Threat to ‘Take Out’ Iran; Oil Rises
President Donald Trump warned Iran could be "taken out in one night," reigniting geopolitical risk and pushing oil prices higher. U.S. equities posted modest gains—S&P 500 up 0.3%, Dow 0.2%, Nasdaq 0.5%—while Australian futures slipped about 1.1% at the open. Brent...
Chhangani and Kumar Cited in 2025 ECA Report Discussing Advancement of Regional Integration in Africa Using Frontier Technologies and Innovation
The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa’s 2025 report on regional integration cites Atlantic Council experts Alisha Chhangani and Ananya Kumar. The paper highlights how frontier technologies—artificial intelligence, blockchain, renewable energy, and satellite communications—can accelerate cross‑border trade and policy harmonisation...
Lipsky Cited in Bloomberg Article Detailing Why the Iran War May Impact Trump’s Goal of Lowering Interest Rates
A Bloomberg piece cites Atlantic Council analyst Josh Lipsky to explain how the escalating war in Iran could derail former President Donald Trump’s longstanding ambition to push the Federal Reserve toward lower interest rates. The conflict is inflating geopolitical risk...
Nikoladze Joined the Embassy of the Republic of Poland to Launch and Discuss Findings From the Organizations’ New Report
Atlantic Council expert Maia Nikoladze partnered with the Embassy of the Republic of Poland on April 6, 2026 to unveil a joint report that maps Iran’s logistical and financial support for Russia’s drone campaign in Ukraine. The analysis quantifies the flow of...
Washington Post Cites GeoEconomics Research on China’s Cross-Border Digital Currency Platform mBridge
The Washington Post referenced a new GeoEconomics study highlighting China’s cross‑border digital currency platform, mBridge. The research notes that mBridge, built on the digital yuan, now supports real‑time settlements among pilot banks in Hong Kong, Singapore and other Asian hubs....
When Will Grain Markets Lose the Geopolitical Premium?
The USDA Prospective Plantings report showed corn, soybean and wheat numbers essentially in line with expectations, leaving little room for surprise. Prices held firm, with December corn hovering near $4.85 and November soybeans around $11.57, reflecting continued market resilience. Fund...
The Hidden Demand Shifts Behind Higher Gas Prices
Higher gasoline prices are prompting subtle but measurable shifts in consumer behavior before any dip in overall spend appears. Shoppers are consolidating trips, opting for smaller packs, lower‑priced substitutes, and relying more on promotions. Brands that monitor first‑party data can...