Bank of Japan Won’t Alter Its Policy Normalisation Path
The Bank of Japan affirmed its commitment to a gradual policy normalisation path, emphasizing data‑driven decisions despite the appointment of two dovish board nominees. While the new members are expected to voice opposition to tightening, the overall board composition remains largely unchanged. Market participants anticipate a rate hike in June, contingent on wage growth and inflation readings. The yen’s recent weakness is noted but is not expected to dictate monetary policy.
FX Daily: Nvidia Earnings Could Be Big for FX
Ahead of Nvidia's earnings, analysts warn that a miss could trigger broader risk aversion, hitting the most exposed G10 currencies such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Norwegian krone. The USD’s reaction will signal whether AI‑related concerns remain confined...
US Formally Warned Kyiv over Attacks on Russia that Damage American Oil Majors’ Interests, Says Ambassador
The United States delivered a formal diplomatic warning to Kyiv after Ukrainian drones struck the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, a key export gateway for Kazakh crude that underpins American oil majors' interests. The attack disabled a single‑point mooring,...
Has U.S. Inflation Started Turning Higher Again?
U.S. tariff rates surged to an average of 13% in 2025, yet headline inflation fell to 2.7% year‑over‑year before rebounding in December. Companies initially absorbed tariff costs, but recent PCE data shows they are now passing them onto consumers, pushing...
Romania’s Government Approves Public Administration Reform, Economic Stimulus Package
Romania’s cabinet approved a sweeping public‑administration decree that will cut roughly 10% of civil‑service staff – about 12,800 jobs – and impose unified wage standards on the majority of local units. The same session cleared an economic relaunch package featuring...
SA Bank Says Gold to End Above $6,000/Oz This Year
Standard Bank’s African Markets Conference highlighted a bullish outlook for gold, with its head of precious metals projecting the metal to finish the year above $6,000 per ounce and potentially reach $7,000‑$10,000 next year if interest rates keep falling. Attendees...
Several Trends Are Shifting Defense Tech Toward Europe
U.S. defense and tech giants are confronting a shifting landscape as Europe pursues digital sovereignty, strategic autonomy, and faster defense innovation spurred by the Ukraine war. New EU rules like the Digital Networks Act and Data Act compel American cloud...
What Are the Main Events for Today?
The European session delivered two key data points: Germany’s preliminary Q4 GDP rose 0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter, beating expectations, and Eurozone CPI showed a 1.7% year‑on‑year headline increase with core inflation at 2.2%. Both releases are final figures that historically have limited...
Who Showed up — and Who Didn’t — for Kyiv’s Big Day
Europe marked the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full‑scale invasion with a high‑profile solidarity event in Kyiv, where EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Portugal’s Prime Minister António Costa stood beside President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The gathering showcased symbolic support...
Godongwana Holds Better Budget Cards but Economic Recovery Remains Inadequate
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is set to present a 2026 budget bolstered by higher-than‑expected tax receipts, driven by a commodity price surge and improved collection efficiency. Despite the fiscal headroom, his GDP outlook remains bleak, projecting growth under 2%—far short...
Japan Govmt Nominates New BOJ Board Members as Rate-Hike Path Comes Into Focus
Japan’s government has nominated professor emeritus Toichiro Asada and law professor Ayano Sato to the Bank of Japan’s nine‑member monetary policy board, pending parliamentary approval. The appointments arrive as the BOJ exits its ultra‑easy stimulus regime and lifts rates to...
New Dedicated Freight Corridor From Dankuni to Surat to Boost MP Logistics, Exports
Union Railways Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw announced a 2,052‑km Dedicated Freight Corridor from Dankuni in West Bengal to Surat in Gujarat, traversing Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. The East‑West line will link with the existing Western Dedicated Freight Corridor, providing...
Coal India Backs Phased Rollout of National Coal Exchange to Protect Energy Security
Coal India has endorsed a phased rollout of the National Coal Exchange, aiming to move coal trading from traditional e‑auctions to a regulated electronic platform with market‑based price discovery. Executive Director V S Maharaj emphasized that reforms must be calibrated to protect...
Yogi Adityanath Meets Singapore President to Boost Infrastructure and Innovation Ties
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath met Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam to deepen ties in infrastructure, innovation, skill development and sustainable growth. The discussion highlighted the recently upgraded India‑Singapore Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and aimed to channel Singaporean expertise and capital...
Government Monitors Iron Ore Pricing Shifts Amid China Talks
The Australian government is closely tracking new iron‑ore pricing arrangements being trialled between Chinese buyers and major Australian producers. Companies such as Fortescue and Rio Tinto have begun using Fastmarkets, while BHP negotiates with China Mineral Resources Group over alternative...
Bangladesh Election Reduces Political Uncertainty but Forthcoming Reform Execution Remains Critical
Bangladesh’s February 12 election gave the Bangladesh Nationalist Party a decisive parliamentary super‑majority, easing short‑term political uncertainty. The win clears the path for a long‑awaited constitutional referendum that could reshape the legislature, judiciary and prime‑ministerial term limits. Fitch Ratings notes that...
Panama Seizes Two Canal Ports
Panama's government announced the seizure of two strategic ports along the Panama Canal, citing national security and revenue concerns. The move follows a series of regulatory actions aimed at tightening state control over critical infrastructure. Officials indicated that the ports...
Hong Kong Sees Fast Growth Continuing Into 2026 on Rebound
Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary Paul Chan announced a 2026 GDP growth projection of 2.5%‑3.5%, raising expectations beyond the 2%‑3% range slated for 2025. The forecast follows a 3.5% expansion in 2025, the strongest pace since 2021, underscoring a robust post‑pandemic...
What’s Next for Ukraine: Investment
Ukraine will emerge from the war burdened with massive debt, but experts Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Maurice Obstfeld argue that restructuring—potentially including outright forgiveness—is essential to attract private capital. They estimate a $40 billion annual investment gap, split between rebuilding destroyed assets,...
A Tale of Two Financial Centres: Brexit Uncertainty and the Fragility of Cross-Border Capital Flows
A new firm‑level study of Swiss‑UK capital linkages finds that the Brexit referendum’s surge in policy uncertainty sharply reduced short‑term debt flows from Swiss‑resident firms to the United Kingdom, while equity investments remained stable. The contraction is driven almost entirely...
The 0.7100 Hurdle: Key Factors Driving AUD/USD's Range-Bound Trade as CPI...
AUD/USD remains trapped in a tight 0.7040‑0.7070 range as traders weigh the Reserve Bank of Australia's 3.85% policy rate against looming Australian CPI data. The pair failed to break the 0.7100 resistance, keeping bullish momentum at bay despite a resilient...
Clean Energy Markets Face a Volatile Year Despite Record Global Investment
Global renewable‑energy investment hit a record $386 billion in 2025, driven by offshore wind and small‑scale solar in emerging markets. In the United States, clean‑energy funding slumped sharply in Q4, falling 36 percent after the Biden‑era EV tax credit was eliminated, resulting...
Eight Questions (and Expert Answers) on What’s Next for US Tariff Policy
President Donald Trump announced a 10 percent tariff on most imports, revising his earlier 15 percent target. The move follows a Supreme Court decision that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not grant the president authority to impose such duties. Experts...
'Chaotic': Big Law Trade Attorneys Deluged With Client Inquiries After Tariff Ruling
Big law trade attorneys are experiencing a flood of client inquiries after the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated key Trump-era tariffs. The ruling enables importers to seek refunds, prompting firms like Quinn Emanuel to launch a dedicated tariff‑refund litigation task force....
Monetary Policy Committee Policy Rate Likely to Remain Unchanged
The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% during Wednesday’s meeting, buoyed by a stronger‑than‑expected 2.5% year‑on‑year GDP growth in Q4 2025 and a clearer political environment after the election. Economists...
BoT Upgrades Thai GDP Forecast After Robust Q4
The Bank of Thailand raised its 2026 GDP growth projection to 1.9%, up from 1.5%, after a stronger‑than‑expected fourth‑quarter performance. Governor Vitai Ratanakorn stressed that tighter coordination between fiscal stimulus and monetary easing is essential to move the economy toward...
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ANALYSIS: Trump Tariff Snotklap Is a Jolt of Note for SA’s Economy
The US Supreme Court rebuked President Trump’s broad tariff authority, prompting a 10% across‑the‑board duty that replaces the 30% reciprocal tariff South Africa faced. The reduction levels the playing field for SA exporters, while gold surged to a three‑week high...
US Imposes Cyber-Related Sanctions on Russian, UAE Individuals and Entities
The U.S. Treasury announced cyber‑related sanctions on four individuals and three entities, including parties in Russia and the United Arab Emirates. The measures target those involved in acquiring and distributing malicious cyber tools that threaten U.S. national security. The sanctions...
Australia CPI Expected to Point to Sticky Inflation, Supporting Hawkish Stance
Australia’s January consumer price index is expected to rise 3.7% year‑over‑year, a slight dip from December’s 3.8%. The forecast includes a Trimmed Mean CPI of 3.3% YoY, unchanged from the prior month, highlighting persistent core inflation. The Reserve Bank of...
How the EU Could Unlock 22 Trillion Cubic Feet of Barents Gas
The European Union is reviewing its Arctic policy, and a tighter definition could unlock the Barents Sea’s estimated 22 trillion cubic feet of gas. Norway’s offshore fields could then supply 20‑30% of EU gas demand through 2050, offering a lower‑emission alternative...
Government Allows Export of 25 Lakh Tonnes of Wheat
The Indian government has approved a limited export of 25 lakh metric tonnes of wheat and an additional five lakh tonnes of wheat products, despite the overall export ban remaining in force. The decision, taken in January and notified by...
Young Bearing the Brunt of UK Tax and Wage Changes, Says BoE Economist
Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill warned that recent hikes in National Insurance contributions and the accelerated rise in the national living wage have hit young workers hardest. Youth unemployment rose to 16.1% in Q4 2025, the highest level...
US to Offer Passport Services in West Bank Settlement for First Time
The United States will provide on‑site passport services in the West Bank settlement of Efrat on Feb. 27, marking the first time American consular officials have operated inside an Israeli settlement in the occupied territory. The move targets tens of thousands...
CSX CEO: Flat Industrial Results Holding Back Railroad Freight Growth
CSX Chief Executive Steve Angel told investors that flat industrial production worldwide is the primary reason railroad freight volumes have stagnated. He noted that China’s growth engine has faded, Europe never delivered growth, and emerging markets lack the scale to...
Expeditors Numbers Reflect Difficult Ocean Freight Market in 4Q
Expeditors International reported a weak fourth quarter 2025, with ocean freight tonnage down 6% year‑over‑year and revenue slipping 3% to $2.86 billion. Operating income fell 17% to $250.9 million and net income dropped to $200.7 million, while salaries and other expenses rose 6%....
Med Gasoline Market Diverges From Northwest Europe
The Mediterranean gasoline market is diverging from northwest Europe as several key fluid catalytic cracker units undergo maintenance, notably Helleniq Energy’s Aspropyrgos refinery in Greece and Eni’s Milazzo refinery in Italy. With offshore capacity constrained, February‑March spreads have turned backwardated—a...
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Bullish Bias Builds Above 155.00 Support
USD/JPY rose to 155.70 on Tuesday, up 0.64% after hitting a daily high of 156.28. The move follows comments from Japan’s prime minister signaling caution on further BoJ rate hikes, which have kept yen pressure alive. Technically, the pair sits...
Japan’s Farm and Food Exports Hit New High As Trade Patterns Shift
Japan’s agricultural, forestry and fishery exports reached a record ¥1.7 trillion in 2025, up 12.8% year‑on‑year, marking the 13th consecutive record. Growth was driven by strong demand for scallops, green tea and sake, with the United States and China remaining the...
Poland's Ferrous Scrap Exports Fall; Ukraine Imports Hit Record
Poland’s ferrous scrap exports to non‑EU markets slipped 8.6% in 2025, falling to 1.204 million tonnes after three years of growth. Shipments to India, Pakistan and Morocco dropped sharply, while volumes to Turkey rose 2.4% and exports to the United States...
Motiva Announces US Group II Base Oil Posting Decrease
Motiva announced a $0.50 per US‑gallon reduction to its Group II, II+ and III base‑oil postings, effective 1 March. The cut could translate into contract price declines of 10‑15¢/USG for parties linked to Motiva’s postings or to basket indices, while blenders with...
The European Central Bank’s Next President May Decide the Fate of the Digital Euro
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde highlighted the digital euro as a core part of her legacy, noting its progress from research to a live policy effort. The project is now in a "preparation phase" with technical design and pilot...
UK to Remove Turkish HDG Quota Exemption
The UK Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) plans to strip Turkey of its developing‑economy exemption for hot‑dip galvanised (HDG) steel, moving Turkish shipments into the capped “other countries” quota. The move follows Tata Steel’s complaint that Turkish imports surged to 58,030 t...
Mexico’s Cartel Violence Could Hit Economy and Insurance Segment: AM Best
Cartel violence erupted in Mexico after the killing of leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, halting flights and disrupting tourism in Puerto Vallarta. Tourism, which contributes about 10% of Mexico’s GDP, faces short‑term setbacks and longer‑term perception risks. AM Best issued a negative...
Douglas Irwin on Tariffs in America and the Supreme Court Case
Supreme Court ruled on Feb 20, 2026 that the International Economic Emergency Powers Act does not give the president authority to impose tariffs. The decision directly challenges the wave of tariffs enacted by President Donald Trump during his second term,...
IMF Expects Godongwana to Maintain Budget Surplus Target of 1.5% of GDP
The IMF’s South Africa mission chief expects Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana to keep the primary budget surplus at 1.5% of GDP and to embed the necessary fiscal reforms in the 2026 budget. The Fund highlighted controlling the public‑sector wage bill,...
Germany No Longer Trusts Russia?
Germany’s strategic relationship with Russia has unraveled since Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Trade collapsed, with imports from Russia falling from €36.4 billion in 2022 to €1.8 billion by 2024, while German aid to Kyiv topped €90 billion. Energy dependence vanished as Russian...
National Bank of Hungary Review: The Rate Cut Has Arrived, but What’s Next?
After 16 months of steady rates, the National Bank of Hungary cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% in February, aligning with broad market expectations. The central bank’s forward guidance remains data‑driven and open‑ended, prompting ING...
America Needs More Than Creativity on Hong Kong – It Needs Action
The article argues that the United States must move beyond rhetoric and take concrete action against Hong Kong’s increasingly repressive regime. It highlights the political role of Hong Kong Economic and Trade Offices (HKETOs) in the U.S., which enjoy diplomatic privileges despite...
Takaichi Draws a Red Line on Nuclear Sharing Amid Japan’s Security Review
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi publicly rejected a NATO‑style nuclear‑sharing arrangement with the United States, reaffirming Japan's Three Non‑Nuclear Principles during a House of Representatives debate. Her statement comes amid a comprehensive review of Japan's National Security Strategy, Defense Strategy,...
In Guinea, the US Has a Rare Opportunity to Gain an Edge over China
Guinea’s newly elected president Mamady Doumbouya hosted a high‑profile inauguration attended by U.S. officials and a Chinese envoy, underscoring the country’s strategic importance. With roughly a quarter of global bauxite reserves and emerging lithium, uranium and iron‑ore projects, Guinea sits...