When Neighbours Stop Knocking: The Hidden Impact of Canada’s 2025 Tourism Decline on US Local Labour Markets
In 2025, Canadian tourism to the United States dropped 25% after heightened geopolitical tensions and Trump‑era rhetoric. The decline hit service‑oriented ZIP codes where Canadian visitors comprised at least 1% of foot traffic, leading to a 6% employment contraction in those local retail, leisure, and hospitality establishments. Using smartphone‑derived visitor data and weekly payroll records, researchers estimate the shock eliminated between 14,000 and 42,000 jobs across the most exposed markets. The impact is geographically concentrated, affecting border communities and major tourist hubs alike.
Cross-Border Restrictions in the Age of Geopolitical Tensions: What Seven Decades of Data Tell Us
A new study uses large‑language‑model techniques to convert the IMF’s 70‑year AREAER narrative archive into a daily, country‑level dataset of cross‑border financial restrictions (iBoP‑C and iBoP‑S). The high‑frequency indices reveal a stop‑go pattern of financial liberalisation, with advanced economies easing...
Fed ‘Utterly Paralyzed’ as Iran Conflict Stokes Stagflation Fears
The Federal Reserve entered 2026 optimistic about a soft landing, but the sudden Iran‑Israel conflict has driven crude above $95 per barrel, pushing gasoline prices to record highs and reviving cost‑push inflation concerns. A weak jobs report further erodes labor‑market...
Prolonged Disruption Turns Focus to Inventories
The International Energy Agency’s chief announced that global oil markets are currently well‑supplied, eliminating any immediate need to tap strategic inventories. While some regions continue to experience supply disruptions, the agency sees no justification for coordinated production cuts at this...
Oil Price at Two-Year High After Qatar Warns All Gulf Production Could Stop Within Days
Oil prices surged to a two‑year high after Qatar’s energy minister warned that all Gulf oil and gas exporters could cease production within days amid the escalating Middle‑East conflict. Brent crude rose above $93 a barrel, and the minister suggested...
Inside Trump’s Long-Term Economic Strategy, with EXIM Bank’s John Jovanovic
John Jovanovic, chairman of the U.S. Export‑Import Bank, outlined a long‑term economic agenda that aligns with former President Trump’s focus on export resilience and strategic stockpiles. He detailed Project Vault, a demand‑driven critical‑mineral reserve designed to curb just‑in‑time vulnerabilities. Jovanovic also...
Stocks Sell Off, Yields Rise, Energy Surges on War in Middle East (253)
The Feb. 28 outbreak of war in the Middle East sparked a broad equity sell‑off during the March 2‑6 week, while energy stocks were the only sector to post gains, rising about 1 %. Treasury yields climbed across the curve, except for a...
US Recycled Plastics Hold Steady Amid Iran War
US recycled plastics markets stayed largely flat this week despite the outbreak of war in the Middle East, as participants adopt a cautious stance amid feedstock and shipping uncertainty. Recycled PET prices were unchanged, while recycled PP rose 1¢/lb and...
Beyond Mining: Oklahoma Bets on Refining to Anchor US Critical Minerals Supply Chain
U.S. critical‑minerals strategy is shifting from mining to processing, and Oklahoma is positioning itself as a domestic hub for refining, smelting and magnet manufacturing. The state is courting major projects, including a $4 billion aluminum smelter by Emirates Global Aluminium at...
US Weighs Military Powers to Restart Oil Pipeline
The Trump administration is weighing the use of the 1950 Defense Production Act to override a California state court order and restart an offshore oil pipeline serving Sable Offshore. A Justice Department opinion argues the law can preempt state consent...
UK's Starmer Discusses Military, Intelligence Support with Saudi Crown Prince
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer held a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman after Iran’s missile strikes on Saudi Arabia. Starmer confirmed the UK is dispatching additional fighter jets, helicopters and a destroyer to the region and...
EU Countries Joining US, Israel Attacks Would Become Iran's "Legitimate Target", Deputy Minister Says
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht‑Ravanchi warned that any EU nation joining U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran would become a "legitimate target" for Tehran. While France, Greece and Italy have dispatched warships to the region, most EU officials are...
Brazilian Steel Slab Exports Double in February
Brazilian steel slab exports more than doubled in February, reaching 835,327 metric tonnes, up 117% year‑over‑year. The United States and the European Union drove the surge, with U.S. shipments rising 54% despite 50% tariffs and EU imports jumping from 50...
Falling Mortgage Rates May Boost US Housing, PVC
U.S. mortgage rates slipped below 6% for the first time in over three years, reviving affordability and prompting forecasts of an 8% rise in home sales by 2026. Despite the rate dip, new‑home construction is expected to decline modestly, with...
CMA CGM Preps for Challenging Year After 2025 Revenue, Profit Decline
Container shipping giant CMA CGM warned that its 2025 revenue and profit will fall, signalling a tougher outlook for the sector. The company projects only moderate growth in 2026, with freight rates likely to be influenced by escalating tensions in the...
2026 Canadian Trade & Customs Outlook: Forced Labour
Canada’s forced‑labour import prohibition remains largely unenforced, with the CBSA having detained only one shipment confirmed as forced‑labour since 2021. A private‑member Bill C-251 is advancing, proposing a rebuttable presumption that goods from certain entities are tainted unless proven otherwise....
2026 Canadian Trade & Customs Outlook: Trade Remedies
Baker McKenzie highlights a sweeping overhaul of Canada’s trade‑remedies regime, with the CBSA making annual administrative reviews the default for updating normal values, export prices and subsidy amounts. The agency recorded a near‑record number of anti‑dumping and countervailing duty investigations...
Nintendo Sues US Government over Donald Trump's Illegal Tariffs
Nintendo has filed a lawsuit against the United States government alleging that tariffs imposed under former President Donald Trump's executive orders violate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The complaint, lodged in the United States Court of International Trade,...
Alaska North Slope Crude Hits Record High: Correction
Delivered prices for medium sour Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude hit a record high on Thursday, trading around an $8.30 per barrel premium to July Ice Brent, the highest since Argus began tracking in January 2018. Purchases by South Korean...
Gemini Suspends, Revamps Middle East Services Amid Growing Conflict
Gemini Cooperation announced the suspension of several Middle East services, including routes to Europe and Asia, as well as regional shuttle operations, citing the escalating war in the Gulf. The alliance, which includes Maersk and Hapag‑Lloyd, is launching a new...
Fed's Hammack: Dollar Dominance Remains Intact as Fed Stays Patient
Federal Reserve President Christopher Hammack warned that inflation remains too high and broadly based, signaling that the central bank will likely keep interest rates on hold for an extended period. He reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to its inflation mandate while...
February Logistics Manager’s Index Heads up to 61.5 as Lean Inventories Tighten Transportation Capacity and Push up Freight Rates
The Logistics Manager’s Index rose to 61.5 in February, the strongest reading since February 2025 and above the long‑term average of 61.3. Inventory levels slipped to 53.8 while inventory cost pressure eased, yet warehousing utilization accelerated and transportation prices jumped...
China Really Thinks It Is Just Defending Itself
China’s Communist Party frames its far‑reaching global actions as defensive, even as it expands military capabilities, maritime claims and economic influence. This self‑perception stems from a blend of historic victimhood and a belief in inherent peacefulness, which turns defensive intent...
South Korea and the Philippines Expand Ties in Nuclear Energy and Critical Minerals
South Korean President Lee Jae‑myung visited the Philippines on March 3‑4, 2026, marking the 77th anniversary of diplomatic ties and signing ten memoranda of understanding across AI, cybersecurity, defense, and energy. The two leaders pledged deeper cooperation on critical minerals, leveraging...
Market Turmoil Is Hitting Most Traditional Safe Havens. UBS Says This Is the Place to Hide
Geopolitical tensions between the U.S., Israel and Iran have rattled traditional safe‑haven assets, with gold and consumer staples slipping as oil prices breach $100 per barrel. UBS recommends pharmaceutical stocks as the new defensive refuge, citing their inverse link to...
ECB Schnabel: ECB Is Still in a Good Place, but War Increases Upside Inflation Risks
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said the central bank’s policy stance remains appropriate despite a temporary inflation overshoot, provided expectations stay anchored. She highlighted that inflation is projected to meet the 2% target over the medium term, reinforcing a...
Isabel Schnabel: Navigating Inflation and Employment in an Era of Supply Shocks and AI
In a March 2026 speech, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel argued that, despite calls for a dual mandate, single‑mandate and dual‑mandate central banks usually adopt similar policy actions because price stability constrains any employment‑focused easing. She highlighted that more...
Wavelength Podcast: Episode 100. War Risk, Rates and Bad Planning?
Episode 100 of TradeWinds' Wavelength podcast examines the shipping fallout from the US‑Israel attacks on Iran and the broader Operation Epic Fury. It details how the conflict has driven VLCC day rates toward record levels and sparked debate over war‑risk insurance coverage in...
U.S. Economy Loses 92,000 Jobs in February
The U.S. labor market contracted in February as nonfarm payrolls dropped by 92,000, marking the second‑largest monthly loss since early 2025. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% and the labor‑force participation rate fell to 62.0%, the lowest level since...
ADNOC CEO Meets Japan PM Takaichi as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Mount
ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber met Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in Tokyo as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated, emphasizing energy security and confirming that the Ruwais LNG export facility remains on schedule. He reassured that construction has not...
Trucking Jobs Post Slight Decline in Unexpected Total Payroll Drop
The February nonfarm payroll report showed an unexpected 92,000‑job decline, with truck transportation employment slipping by 500 to 1,462,500 positions. This marks a 22,100‑job shortfall compared with a year earlier and a net loss of 4,700 jobs since December. Warehouse...
Hajjar Chemali Interviewed on CNN Discussing the Growing Economic Collapse Inside Iran
In a recent CNN interview, political analyst Hajjar Chemali warned that Iran’s economy is spiraling toward collapse. He highlighted hyperinflation, a depreciating rial, and shrinking oil revenues as core drivers. Chemali also noted rising unemployment and mounting public unrest as...
US Stocks: US Retail Sales Decline as Consumer Pullback Deepens
US retail sales slipped 0.2% month‑on‑month in January, bringing total sales to $733.5 billion, though they remain 3.2% higher than a year ago. The decline outperformed the modest growth forecast but was attributed to severe winter weather curbing brick‑and‑mortar traffic. Health‑care,...
Pipeline Gaps and Refinery Shifts Expose California’s Energy Vulnerability
California functions as an “energy island” because it lacks crude‑oil pipelines linking it to major domestic sources such as the Permian Basin. The state now depends on marine imports of heavier Middle‑East crude, which are processed by refineries tuned to...
US Stocks: Fed Rate Cut Bets Rise After Weak Jobs Data
Weak February employment data, showing a loss of 92,000 jobs, coincided with oil prices climbing to $90 a barrel and U.S. gas prices jumping 10%. The mixed signals have revived investor expectations that the Federal Reserve could pivot to a...
Can Reshoring and Onshoring Deliver Manufacturing Sustainability Benefits?
U.S. manufacturers are accelerating reshoring and onshoring, with Apple committing over $500 billion and Johnson & Johnson earmarking $55 billion for domestic production through 2029. Companies cite supply‑chain resilience, tariff pressures, and ESG goals as drivers, while surveys show cost remains the dominant factor...
CMA CGM Adds Direct India-USWC String as Part of Asia Network Overhaul
CMA CGM announced a new standalone service linking India directly to the U.S. West Coast, extending its Pearl River Express loop. The weekly rotation will call at Nhava Sheva, Mundra, Karachi and Colombo, using a fleet of 13 vessels sized between 10,000...
Tesla Sends Canadian Model 3 Inventory to the US as It Expects Chinese EVs Back
Tesla has emptied its Canadian Model 3 inventory and shipped the U.S.-built units back to the United States. The shift follows Canada’s March 1 tariff reduction, which lowered the duty on Chinese‑built EVs to 6.1 % and opened a 49,000‑unit annual quota. Tesla...
Senegal Cuts Government Agencies to Save Cash Amid Debt Woes
Senegal announced the closure of 19 government agencies, eliminating roughly 1,000 public‑sector jobs. The move is projected to save at least 55 billion CFA francs over the next three years. The decision comes as the country's debt surged to 132% of...
Dollar Falls After Weak U.S. Jobs Data
U.S. non‑farm payrolls unexpectedly dropped 92,000 in February, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.4% and prompting analysts to anticipate further Federal Reserve rate cuts. The dollar index (DXY) slipped to 99.063 from 99.308 as markets digested the weaker labor...
Hong Kong Is Beijing’s New ‘Vanguard’ in the Contest for Financial Sovereignty
China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan designates Hong Kong as the vanguard of its “strong financial nation” strategy, shifting the city from a neutral capital bridge to a core component of Beijing’s financial security architecture. The 2026‑27 Hong Kong budget formalizes this...
Digital Rupee vs Digital Euro: Which CBDC Is More Business-Friendly?
The article pits India’s Digital Rupee against the EU’s Digital Euro, evaluating which central bank digital currency (CBDC) best serves commercial users. It notes the Digital Rupee’s near‑real‑time settlement, open‑source APIs, and early integration with Indian e‑commerce giants, while the...
How the White House’s Plan B on Tariffs Can Give It All the Trade Leverage It Needs
The Supreme Court’s February 20 decision barred the president from imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, ending the Trump administration’s primary trade‑leverage tool. Until that ruling, the administration had clinched eight reciprocal trade agreements and ten framework deals...
Retail Trader Activity Soars as Middle East Conflict Unfolds: Capital.com
Capital.com reported a 49% jump in active retail traders and a 73% rise in total trading volume on 2 March as the Middle East conflict intensified. Oil surged to become the platform’s second‑most‑traded instrument, with new oil traders up 1,255% and...
India and Canada Reset: Pragmatism Takes Precedence Over Recriminations
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s four‑day visit to India in late February marked a pragmatic reset in bilateral ties, delivering a suite of agreements across energy, AI, defense, space and critical minerals. The centerpiece is a $1.91 billion uranium supply contract...
How Will the Iran War Affect the Global Economy?
The Iran‑Hamas war is unlikely to dent global GDP, as the Gulf accounts for only 2‑3% of world output. However, the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly a quarter of seaborne oil and one‑fifth of LNG flow—poses a serious chokepoint for...
Intercontinental Exchange to Launch Container Freight Futures in April
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) announced plans to launch four container freight futures contracts on April 7, pending regulatory approval. The contracts will be U.S.-denominated, cash‑settled, and indexed to the New York Shipping Exchange’s Freight Indices covering routes between Asia, Europe and the United States....
Costco to Flow Tariff Refunds, ‘if and when Received,’ Back to Customers
Costco CEO Ron Vachris announced that any tariff refunds resulting from the Supreme Court's invalidation of Trump-era IEEPA duties will be passed to members via lower prices and better value. The court decision forced Customs to liquidate pending entries, creating...
Direct Impact of 10% Increase in Oil Prices Estimated to Be Around Almost 1% on WPI: Bank of Baroda
Bank of Baroda estimates that a 10 percent rise in global oil prices will directly lift India’s Wholesale Price Index by roughly 0.7‑1 percent, potentially reaching a full 1 percent when indirect effects are counted. The surge would push oil imports up by...
Where to Invest As Iran War Hits Global Stock Markets
The Iran‑related conflict has nudged global equity markets lower, with Europe’s index down nearly 5 % and the U.S. benchmark off about 1 %. Oil prices surged above $84 a barrel, benefitting energy stocks, while shipping firms posted double‑digit gains despite limited...