No, Turkey Is Not the New Iran
Israeli officials and U.S. think tanks are warning that Turkey could become a strategic rival comparable to Iran, citing President Erdogan’s authoritarian turn and regional ambitions. The article argues the "new Iran" label is misleading because Turkey lacks Iran’s ideological drive, proxy‑war network, and nuclear aspirations. While Ankara’s support for Hamas, Syrian deployments, and drone capabilities pose genuine challenges, Erdogan remains a pragmatic populist rather than a theocratic expansionist. Mischaracterizing Turkey risks inflaming tensions and prompting a self‑fulfilling security spiral.
Gold Price Fades on Inflation Concerns, Silver Price Rebounds
Gold slipped to about $5,015 an ounce on Monday, a 3% intraday drop, before regaining most of the loss, as a stronger U.S. dollar and inflation‑driven rate worries kept investors on the sidelines. Silver, by contrast, rose over 2% to...
China’s Big Bet on Central Asia Is Paying Off
China’s investment strategy in Central Asia is moving beyond the debt‑trap stereotype, emphasizing joint ventures and infrastructure that fuel industrial growth. In 2025, Chinese foreign direct investment rose roughly 15% year‑on‑year, with Kazakhstan alone attracting about $12 billion in energy projects....
Global Disruptions Seen to Open Trade Opportunities for Asean – DTI
The Philippine Department of Trade and Industry says ongoing global disruptions – from the Middle East conflict to the US‑China trade war – are creating fresh trade openings for ASEAN. At the pre‑ASEAN Business Environment Forum (ABEF), DTI executive director...
VOL REPORT: Stagflation Fears Drive Widening Volatility Risk Premium
Stagflation concerns have pushed volatility risk premiums to record levels across commodities and equities. One‑month implied volatility for crude oil surged to 104%, the highest since 2020 and near 2008 crisis peaks, with the volatility risk premium now almost twice...
JPMorgan Just Put a 10% Price Tag on the Iran War
JPMorgan’s head of global market intelligence warned that the Iran war could push the S&P 500 down about 10%, citing oil prices breaching $120 a barrel and heightened inflation risk. The bank’s outlook marks a sharp reversal from earlier estimates of...
2 Big UK Car Associations Are Telling Drivers to Ditch Non-Essential Journeys as Oil Soars Above $100 a Barrel
Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel after the Iran‑related conflict disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude to near $120 in a single day. In response, the UK’s AA and RAC urged motorists to skip non‑essential trips and adopt...
Recession Odds Jump on Kalshi After Oil Tops $100
Prediction‑market platform Kalshi saw recession odds climb above 34% on Monday, the highest level since November, after U.S. crude oil breached the $100 per barrel threshold. The surge in oil prices follows recent Middle‑Eastern output cuts and the closure of...
As Trump Tariff Refund Process Takes Shape, Importers Remain Uncertain
U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced it will create a refund process for Trump‑era tariffs invalidated by the Supreme Court, aiming to launch within 45 days. The agency has not yet detailed how importers will file refunds in the Automated...
Europe’s “Limited Responsibility” Model Must Go
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that Europe’s “limited responsibility” fiscal framework must be abandoned to protect prosperity and sovereignty. She made the remarks at an informal European Council meeting and the Munich Security Conference, calling for deeper fiscal...
Iran Conflict Tests 2026 Air Cargo Outlook
Xeneta’s March 5 report warns that the Iran‑U.S./Israel conflict is reshaping the 2026 air cargo outlook. February showed a 6 % YoY volume rise and spot rates up 5 % to $2.58/kg, indicating resilience. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, jet‑fuel costs could...
What Ukraine Can Learn From Poland’s Rocky EU Accession in 2004
Ukraine has set 2027 as its target for full EU membership, framing accession as an existential and strategic priority amid an ongoing war. Since accession talks began in June 2024, Kyiv has completed screening of 33 negotiation chapters in under...
Pre-Markets Down as Middle East Tensions Remain
Pre‑market trading is under pressure as the Iran conflict pushes WTI and Brent crude above $100 a barrel, lifting oil prices 78% year‑to‑date. Major indices are slipping, with the Dow down 1.16%, the S&P 500 off 1.05% and the Nasdaq losing...
Iran War Pushes Rupiah Close to Historic Low
The United States‑Israeli war on Iran has driven the Indonesian rupiah to Rp 17,009 per dollar, flirting with its 1997‑1998 crisis low. Bloomberg data show the currency briefly breaching the Rp 17,000 psychological barrier before settling near Rp 16,950. The conflict has also...
Iran Names a New Supreme Leader. What to Know About the Successor to the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Iran's Assembly of Experts appointed 56‑year‑old Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ayatollah, as the new supreme leader amid an ongoing war with Israel and heightened attacks across the Middle East. The appointment reinforces the Revolutionary Guard’s hard‑line stance and...
Calm Amid Storm: Indian Founders Hold Steady As Middle East Tensions Rise
Escalating US‑Israel and Iran conflict is disrupting tech hubs across the Middle East, prompting global giants like Microsoft, Nvidia and Amazon to shut their Dubai offices and shift staff to remote work. Indian founders based in Dubai report that day‑to‑day...
GOP Whip Tom Emmer Predicts Oil Prices Will Drop After Iran War
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer told CNBC that oil prices, which surged above $100 per barrel after Middle Eastern production cuts tied to the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran, will "tumble" once the operation concludes. President Donald Trump echoed the short‑term...
Africa Gets Duty-Free Access to China – But Chinese Companies Win on Both Sides
Starting May 1, China will waive import duties on virtually all goods from every African nation except Eswatini, expanding a previous exemption for 33 least‑developed countries. The move, announced by President Xi at the African Union summit, is framed as...
International Business Briefs | Saudi Arabia Joins Neighbours in Cutting Oil Output
Saudi Aramco has begun curbing output at two fields as the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck from the US‑Israeli war with Iran rattles global oil supplies. Meanwhile, Roche’s breast‑cancer drug giredestrant failed a late‑stage trial, sending its shares down more than...
Europe Shouldn’t Fear Trade War with China, EU Agency Says
The EU Institute for Security Studies recommends an “escalate to de‑escalate” approach toward China, urging faster use of the Anti‑Coercion Instrument (ACI), the bloc’s most powerful trade‑defence tool. The report notes China’s growing trade surplus of €359.3 billion and its leverage...
Any Attack on Innocent Seafarers Unacceptable: IMO Secretary-General
International Maritime Organization Secretary‑General Arsenio Domínguez condemned a series of attacks on merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, noting at least seven seafarer deaths and multiple injuries. He highlighted the missile strike on the tug Mussafah 2, which killed four...
Artificial Intelligence and Aggregate Productivity
Recent speeches by Federal Reserve officials highlight artificial intelligence as a key driver of future productivity growth. They differentiate labor productivity—real GDP per hour worked—from total factor productivity (TFP), both illustrated in a FRED series covering 1988‑2024. Economists contend AI...
Oil Prices Soar to $120 a Barrel as Iran Names New Supreme Leader
Oil prices surged to near $120 a barrel as Iran’s conflict intensified following the appointment of a new supreme leader, then retreated to about $106 for Brent and $103 for WTI. The fighting threatens production and shipping in the Persian...
Air Cargo Turns to Trucks as Middle East Disruption Sends Rates Soaring
Air cargo networks across the Gulf are crippled by flight cancellations and airspace closures, prompting forwarders to reroute freight by truck, especially through Saudi Arabia. Freight rates have surged, with southern‑Asia to North America lanes up 36% and Asia‑Europe lanes...
Taiwan's February Exports Rise for 28th Straight Month, Hit New High
Taiwan’s February exports surged 20.6% year‑on‑year to US$49.8 billion, marking the 28th consecutive month of growth and pushing the trade surplus to US$12.77 billion. The first two months of 2026 recorded US$115.57 billion in exports, up 44.5% – the strongest bi‑annual performance in...
Fertilizer Prices Are Skyrocketing, Are Food Prices Next?
Fertilizer prices are soaring as the United States, Israel and Iran become entangled in a new geopolitical conflict, disrupting key Middle‑East supply chains. The spike mirrors the 2022 commodity shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent grain, fertilizer...
House Leadership Files Fuel Excise Tax Suspension Bill; Public Hearing Set Tuesday
House leaders filed HB 8292, allowing the Philippine President to suspend or reduce fuel excise taxes during national or global emergencies, triggered by soaring oil prices linked to Middle East tensions. The bill sets a concrete threshold—Dubai crude at $80 per...
Taiwan's Economic Gauge Stays 'Red' For 2nd Straight Month in January
Taiwan’s National Development Council reported its composite economic gauge at 39 in January, keeping the index in the red zone for a second straight month and signaling an overheating economy. The money‑supply sub‑index (M1B) improved to a green light, while...
The Iran Oil Shock Could Fuel This Contrarian Bet
Rising tensions with Iran are driving Brent crude above $100 a barrel, sparking fears of a prolonged oil shock. The iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA), heavily weighted toward oil and financials, has slipped to near five‑year lows despite the...
Gavin Newsom Take A Jibe At Trump As Crude Oil Soar Past $100 For First Time In 4 Years: 'We...
Crude oil breached $100 per barrel on March 8, its first four‑year high, driven by tighter inventories, OPEC+ output cuts, and Middle East tensions. The price surge coincided with a political jab from California Governor Gavin Newsom, who mocked former...
Why Gas Prices Rise Today for Oil Bought Weeks Ago
Philippine fuel retailers set pump prices based on the cost of the next shipment rather than the price they paid weeks ago, using a replacement‑cost accounting model tied to the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) benchmark. A mandatory 15‑ to...
Why China Won’t Hit Back over Indonesia’s US Trade Deal
Indonesia and the United States signed the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) on Feb. 19, imposing a 19% tariff ceiling and a clause to mirror U.S. restrictions on third parties, primarily aimed at curbing Chinese trans‑shipments. Beijing responded with its usual...
West Asia Tensions Pose Twin Challenges for Indian Paper Industry
West Asian geopolitical tensions are creating a dual challenge for India’s paper sector by driving up energy costs and threatening key export markets. In FY24‑25, the industry shipped $980 million of paper and paperboard, with roughly $290 million (30%) destined for West...
A Slew of Negative News Has Anxious Clients Calling Their Advisors. Here Is How They Are Responding
Recent market turbulence—VIX up more than 50%, oil above $100, and a drop in February jobs—has pushed the S&P 500 down over 2% in a week. Wealth managers are fielding anxious client calls, emphasizing that diversification across sectors and asset classes...
Rolls-Royce Shares Slide as FTSE 100 Plunges Amid Iran War
Rolls‑Royce shares slumped up to five per cent at the open, later stabilising at a three‑per‑cent loss, as the Iran‑Israel conflict sparked broader market anxiety. The FTSE 100 fell about 1.5 per cent, driven by concerns over disrupted air routes over Azerbaijan...
Orbán–Zelensky Clash Deepens After Cash Seizure, Pipeline Dispute, and Kremlin Interference Fears
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly threatened Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after Budapest blocked the EU's €90 bn loan package for Kyiv. The dispute escalated over the shutdown of the Soviet‑era Druzhba oil pipeline, which Hungary claims Kyiv is withholding for...
Government Borrowing Costs Mount on Fears of Inflation Spike
Government gilt yields spiked on Monday as oil prices surged nearly 30%, reigniting fears of higher inflation and prolonged interest‑rate hikes. The 10‑year gilt rose 14 basis points, while the two‑year jumped over 23 basis points, reflecting market expectations that...
UK Businesses Urged to Prepare for EU Agri-Food Trade Reset
The UK government is urging food and farming firms to ready themselves for a new Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement with the EU, slated to cut paperwork and inspections that have hampered trade since Brexit. Ministers say the deal could...
Oil Prices Could Push Canadian Grocery Inflation Higher
Oil prices have breached $90 a barrel and could climb toward $100, reviving a pattern where energy spikes precede grocery inflation in Canada by six to nine months. Historical data shows each major oil surge lifts food price inflation by...
After Taking a Breather, Why Japan Stocks Could Keep Rising
Japan’s equity market has paused as the Iran‑Israel conflict lifts oil and gas prices, pulling TOPIX and the Nikkei down about 4% after strong YTD gains. Analysts argue the market remains fairly valued, with forward earnings multiples around 17.5×, and...
Iran Conflict Disrupts Agricultural Commodity Flows; South American Soymeal Washouts Reported
The Iran‑Israel‑US conflict has forced the cancellation of several South American soymeal and soybean cargoes destined for Iran, prompting exporters to consider washouts or rerouting. Soymeal premiums are under pressure as freight rates spike, especially on Atlantic routes, while Brazil’s...
European NATO Nations Reduce Reliance on US Arms Imports: SIPRI Data
European NATO members reduced the United States' share of major arms imports to 58% in the 2021‑2025 period, down from 64% in the previous five years. The decline coincides with a three‑fold increase in overall European defense spending after Russia’s...
Eurozone March Sentix Investor Confidence -3.1 vs -5.0 Expected
Eurozone Sentix investor confidence slipped to -3.1 in March, missing the -5.0 forecast but confirming a sharp reversal from the prior 4.2 reading. The expectations index collapsed to 3.5 from 15.8, while the current‑situation gauge fell to -9.5. The decline...
EU Buys 100% of Russian Arctic LNG Just 9 Months Before Planned Gas Ban
In February 2026 the European Union purchased every cargo from Russia’s Yamal LNG project, amounting to 1.54 million tonnes across 21 shipments, the first full‑yearly capture since 2018. The purchases came just nine months before the EU’s scheduled ban on Russian...
India's Shrimp Exports Surge Past Rs 50k Crore Amidst US Tariff Challenges
India’s shrimp exports are projected to exceed Rs 50,000 crore this fiscal, marking a 13‑15 % year‑on‑year rise after three years of stagnation. While shipments to the United States fell 15 %, the sector offset the loss by expanding into Vietnam, the EU and...
For a Country that Owns Ethiopia Airlines, EAC Is but a Sick Joke
The opinion piece argues that Ethiopia should be wary of joining the East African Community (EAC), citing systemic failures among current members. It highlights that several states have missed subscription payments, lack airspace integration, and prioritize arms spending over regional...
India’s New GDP Series to Dig Deeper Into District Economies
India’s statistical system is overhauling district‑level GDP measurement, shifting from a top‑down allocation model to a bottom‑up approach that uses granular data. The change, driven by the National Statistical Office and state directorates of economics and statistics, will incorporate new...
Rand Under Severe Pressure
The South African rand weakened to below R16.90 per US dollar, its lowest level since mid‑December, as oil prices surged more than 25% amid the expanding US‑Israeli conflict with Iran. Higher crude costs and heightened global risk aversion pressured the...
Iran's Strategic Oil Island Thrust Into the Spotlight as Middle East Conflict Escalates
Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export hub, handles roughly 90% of the country's crude and can load about 7 million barrels per day. As the U.S.-Israel war on Iran intensifies, the island remains untouched, but analysts warn President Trump may contemplate...
Oil Spikes: How High Is the Price of War?
Oil prices have surged sharply as the Middle East conflict intensifies, highlighted by Iran’s appointment of a new supreme leader. The spike has prompted an emergency G7 finance ministers meeting to discuss coordinated responses. In the UK, Prime Minister Sir...