VGIT: U.S. Force Projection Could Undermine Debasement Trade
The United States’ military escalation against Iran has triggered a rapid flight‑to‑quality, pushing U.S. Treasury prices up and yields down while simultaneously stoking inflation concerns via higher oil prices. This dual dynamic creates a paradox for intermediate‑term bond investors, as lower yields boost prices but rising inflation could force the Fed to keep rates higher longer. VGIT, the Vanguard Intermediate‑Term Treasury ETF, is especially sensitive due to its five‑year duration, making its performance ambiguous. Analysts therefore recommend favoring equities or short‑term Treasuries over VGIT in the near term.
IG Japan Warns Traders of Market Fluctuations Due to Middle East Situation Deterioration
IG Japan has issued a market‑volatility warning as Middle East tensions intensify, causing rapid price swings across multiple asset classes. The broker expects continued fluctuations and may adjust margin requirements at short notice. Traders are advised to keep sufficient capital...
Chinese Domestic Sulphur Prices Surge on Iran Crisis
Chinese domestic sulphur prices jumped to 4,250 yuan per tonne, about $531, marking a roughly 5% increase from late February levels. The rise follows heightened US‑Iran tensions, prompting sellers to lift offers to 4,300 yuan/t in both paper and spot markets. While...
Cross-Asset Vols Spike on Iran Risk as Oil Surges
Cross‑asset implied volatilities surged after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, with oil 1‑month vol jumping 7 points and the skew inverting through the 6‑month curve – a pattern last seen during the 2022 Russia‑Ukraine war. Credit volatility also spiked,...
India's LNG Tankers Divert Away From Strait of Hormuz
Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz forced Indian LNG carriers to reroute, leaving only one of Petronet's three captive tankers able to unload at the Dahej terminal. The 138,000 m³ Disha is stalled at Ras Laffan, while Aseem diverted away...
HAL, BDL, Other Defence Stocks in Focus as War in Middle East Escalates; What to Expect?
Indian defence stocks rallied as Middle East tensions rose after Iran's Supreme Leader was killed. HAL and BDL saw modest gains despite year‑to‑date declines of over 11% and 15% respectively. The recent India‑Israel defence pact and Prime Minister Modi’s visit...
SET Index Falls on Iran-US Conflict
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) opened down 1.73% to 1,501.78 as investors reacted to the Iran‑US conflict. Energy‑linked shares such as PTTEP and PTT rose, while non‑energy stocks like Gulf Energy, Bumrungrad Hospital and Airports of Thailand fell sharply....
AUD/JPY Trades Above 111.00 After Paring Recent Losses
AUD/JPY rebounded to trade above the 111.00 level during Asian hours, offsetting earlier losses despite heightened safe‑haven demand from the Middle East crisis. The Australian dollar’s recovery was supported by a modest easing in domestic inflation and a dip in...
China to Order up to 120 Airbus Jets
The Chinese government is preparing an incremental order of up to 120 Airbus jets, a move announced by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz during his February 25 state visit to Beijing. The exact aircraft variants, delivery timetable, and contract value have not...
Intermediaries See Shift to Fixed Income Ahead of Rate Cuts, Eye New Markets for Growth: BOS Survey
A Bank of Singapore survey of 90 senior intermediaries across Singapore, Greater China and Dubai shows a clear shift toward fixed‑income products as investors brace for anticipated rate cuts. One‑third of respondents expect rising demand for bonds, while alternative investments...
BoJ’s Himino Says Policy Should Gradually Move Toward Neutral Stance with Moderate Rate Hikes
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Himino said the central bank’s policy remains somewhat accommodative but should gradually move toward a neutral stance through moderate rate hikes. He noted that the inflation gap is still slightly negative but expected to...
ASIA BLOG: The Fall of the Islamic Republic of Iran Will Boost the Rise of Asian Business Links No End
An Israeli‑U.S. strike that killed Iran’s supreme leader has weakened the Islamic Republic, prompting speculation that its eventual collapse could reshape Asian economic ties. Iran holds the world’s fourth‑largest oil reserves and the second‑largest gas deposits, assets long constrained by...
Australian Airline Qantas' Shares Fall More than 10% on US-Iran Conflict
Qantas Airways’ shares plunged more than 10% to A$8.92, their lowest level in ten months, after the United States and Israel launched large‑scale strikes on Iran, sending oil prices sharply higher. The geopolitical flare‑up forced the closure of key Middle...
Uzbekistan’s January Foreign Trade Rises 29% to $5.8bn
Uzbekistan’s foreign trade turnover jumped to $5.8 bn in January, a 29.2% year‑on‑year increase. Exports rose 26.7% to $1.69 bn, driven by industrial goods, food, chemicals and services, while imports climbed 30.3% to $4.14 bn, widening the trade deficit to $2.44 bn. China remained...
Lufthansa Group and Air India: Closer Ties to Build on EU-India Free Trade Agreement
Lufthansa Group and Air India announced a joint business agreement (JBA), the first airline‑to‑airline JBA since Lufthansa’s 2017 partnership with Singapore Airlines. The deal deepens an existing codeshare and Star Alliance relationship by integrating network planning, joint sales, marketing, schedule...
China’s Oil Buying Spree May Be Running Out of Steam
China’s oil imports reached a record 11.55 million barrels per day in 2025, a 4.4% increase over the prior year, driven by aggressive stockpiling and expanded storage capacity. While the country continues to buy discounted Russian crude and benefits from Saudi...
US-Israeli Strikes Against Iran Can Cause Plenty of Collateral Damage to Russia
The United States and Israel’s air campaign against Iran threatens the Russia‑Iran “North‑South” trade corridor, a lifeline that helps Moscow evade Western sanctions and sustain its war in Ukraine. The corridor, recently bolstered by a Russian‑Iran rail modernisation agreement, now...
Low Fertility May Persist and Could Be Good for the Economy
A new study argues that persistently low fertility in high‑income countries may be economically beneficial. The authors note that total fertility rates have fallen below replacement and often under 1.3, a level once thought temporary. Cross‑sectional data show a positive...
Asia-Pacific Fintech Funding Hits Decade-Low in 2025 as Investors Stay Cautious: KPMG
Fintech investment in Asia‑Pacific fell to a decade low in 2025, totaling $9.3 billion across 763 transactions, down from $11.7 billion in 2024. Venture capital supplied $7.5 billion of that amount, while mergers and acquisitions contributed $1.7 billion and private equity under $0.1 billion. Funding...
Singapore and Norway Activate EFTA Digital Economy Agreement
The European Free Trade Association‑Singapore Digital Economy Agreement (ESDEA) has entered into force for Singapore and Norway, following its signing in September 2025. The pact establishes binding rules for cross‑border data flows, electronic payments, and paperless trade, while prohibiting data‑localisation...
THE GREEK TOURISM SECTOR CONTINUED TO PERFORM STRONGLY IN 2025
Greece’s tourism sector posted strong growth in 2025, with total travel earnings climbing to €23.63 billion, a 9.4% rise over the prior year. Visitor arrivals reached 37.95 million, up 5.6%, and average spend per traveler increased 3.8%, boosting overall revenue. The United...
The Risk of Unknown Unknowns for Global Markets Amid War in Iran
The recent escalation between the United States, Israel and Iran highlights the market challenge of "unknown unknowns"—risks that defy traditional modeling. While investors have tools to hedge known shocks, the lack of definable parameters forces regulators to prioritize liquidity and...
Middle Eastern Oil Giants Accelerate Multibillion-Dollar Clean Energy Push
Middle Eastern oil powerhouses, led by the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are accelerating multibillion‑dollar clean‑energy programs that span solar, wind, nuclear, and green‑hydrogen. The region’s renewable capacity is set to surge, with solar projected to grow ten‑fold and nuclear output...
India Set to Revive 1984 Water Project After Revoking Pact with Pakistan
India is set to restart the 1984 Jhelum River water‑management project in Kashmir, marking the first unilateral water‑flow decision since it suspended the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan nine months ago. The revival follows a brief armed clash between the...
KMTC Tied to Six HD Hyundai Boxships
Korea Marine Transport Co (KMTC) has placed a KRW 372.4 bn ($258 m) order for six 1,800‑TEU feeder containerships with HD Hyundai shipyards. The vessels are scheduled for delivery between August 2027 and June 2028, adding to KMTC’s fleet of more than 60 ships that...
The Data Sovereignty Fault Line Dividing Washington and Its Allies
The United States, via Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is urging diplomats to counter foreign data‑sovereignty measures, calling EU regulations overly burdensome and a threat to innovation. At the same time, France announced it will replace Microsoft Teams and Zoom with...
Stocks Tumble, Dollar and Oil Rise on Iran Crisis: Markets Wrap
Global equities fell sharply on March 1 as the Iran crisis escalated, with Asian shares dropping 1.6% and U.S. and European futures slipping over 1% and 1.7% respectively. The heightened geopolitical risk pushed investors toward safe‑haven assets, lifting the U.S....
Travel Industry Faces Economic Strain, Overtourism, and Infrastructure Challenges
The travel and tourism sector is confronting a perfect storm of economic uncertainty, rising tax burdens, and mounting infrastructure strain. Consumer confidence dips have already curbed discretionary travel spending, while layered fees on flights, hotels and rentals add friction for...
Charai in The National Interest: How the US Can Sustain Deterrence After Khamenei
The Atlantic Council essay by Ahmed Charai examines how the United States can preserve a credible deterrence posture in the Middle East after the eventual death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Charai argues that Washington must blend conventional force,...
Iran Conflict Threatens India’s $4.5 Billion Electronics Exports to Gulf via UAE, Hormuz Route Disruptions
India’s electronics and tech exports to the Gulf, valued at $4.5 billion in FY26, face disruption as the Iran‑Israel conflict restricts airspace and the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The United Arab Emirates, the second‑largest buyer, accounted for $4.1 billion of those shipments,...
New Study Finds 6 Types of ‘Discouraged’ Workers in Australia – and Why They Stop Job-Hunting
A new Australian study using HILDA survey data and latent class analysis identified six distinct profiles of discouraged workers – people who want a job but have stopped looking. The groups range from young, low‑educated men to older, well‑educated women...
West Asia Conflict May Spike Dal Prices; Rice Exports to Iran at Risk
The ongoing West Asia conflict is expected to push global pulse prices higher, threatening a rise in dal costs for Indian households. India imports roughly 5‑6 million tonnes of pulses from Myanmar, Canada and Africa, leaving the domestic market vulnerable to...
Middle East Conflict Threatens UAE Polymer Export Port
The escalating Middle East conflict sparked a fire at Jabel Ali port, the UAE hub that moves roughly 65 % of GCC polymer exports and 33 % of regional petrochemical cargo. The blaze, caused by debris from an aerial interception, resulted in no...
Hormuz Trade Slows to Trickle as Attacks Continue
The Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil conduit, has seen trade reduced to a trickle after a wave of escalatory attacks. U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, followed by Iranian reprisals triggered by the reported assassination of Supreme Leader...
Op-Ed: Gulf States Face a Strategic Choice After Iranian Attacks
Iranian drone attacks on Dubai and other Gulf cities followed the launch of Operation Epic Fury, immediately crippling air services and throttling ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, heavily dependent on imported food...
Germany's Merz Calls for Plan for 'Day After' In Iran
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz urged the United States and European allies to develop a coordinated "day after" strategy for Iran following recent U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s supreme leader. He reaffirmed Germany’s support for Washington’s objective of ending Tehran’s...
Travellers Say some Iranians Held up at Turkish Land Border
Some Iranian citizens attempting to cross the Kapıköy land border into Turkey were stopped on March 1, days after the United States and Israel launched strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader. Travelers reported 300‑400 people waiting on the Iranian side, while...
MUFG: Philippine Trade Costs to Fall After US Court Ruling
MUFG Bank expects U.S. tariffs on Philippine imports to decline following the Supreme Court’s decision that curbed the Trump administration’s emergency‑powers tariff authority. The bank notes that exemptions for high‑value semiconductors and key agricultural products should keep effective trade costs...
ECB’s Nagel Says Doubts on Dollar’s Haven Status Have Risen
European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel warned that confidence in the U.S. dollar’s safe‑haven status is waning. He noted that recent market turbulence has led international investors to question the dollar’s reliability, contributing to its ongoing weakness. Nagel...
Chokepoints Under Pressure: When Geography and Conflict Strain the Arteries of Global Trade
The article highlights how simultaneous geopolitical tensions at the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and Pakistan’s Arabian Sea threaten global maritime trade. Iranian Revolutionary Guard warnings triggered tanker stand‑offs, navigation interference, and a surge in war‑risk insurance premiums, while...
Proposed Saudi-U.S. Deal Could Allow Uranium Enrichment, Arms Control Experts Warn
U.S. officials are negotiating a nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia that could permit the kingdom to develop uranium enrichment capabilities. Congressional documents and the Arms Control Association warn the deal may create a pathway to a Saudi weapons program,...
Consumer Price Index Isn’t Properly Accounting For Healthcare Costs
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) omits key out‑of‑pocket healthcare expenses, masking true inflation for many Americans. While the CPI shows a modest 3% rise since President Trump’s second inauguration, premiums on the ACA marketplace have...
The Global Tourism War Economy Seen From Amazing Thailand
The escalating Gulf conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran is rippling through global tourism, prompting sentiment‑driven hesitation among long‑haul travelers while leaving Thailand largely insulated. Short‑term booking delays and modest fare increases are expected as airlines absorb higher...
Gulf Stocks Fall, Kuwait Halts Trading as Iran Targets GCC Countries After US-Israeli Strikes
Geopolitical tensions surged after coordinated US‑Israeli strikes on Iran, prompting Iranian missile and drone attacks across the Gulf. Kuwait’s Boursa Kuwait suspended all trading, while Saudi, Oman and Bahrain markets slipped 1‑2% despite Saudi Aramco’s 2.6% rally on rising oil...
Skuld P&I Cancels War Risk Cover in Mideast Gulf
Skuld P&I announced the cancellation of its war‑risk coverage for vessels operating in the Middle East Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, citing a deteriorating geopolitical climate after US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory actions. The notice...
UAE Fujairah Bunker Market Braced for Impact
Bunker traders in Fujairah, the Middle East’s largest marine fuels hub, are preparing for a sharp decline in demand after heightened Gulf tensions and unverified warnings of a Strait of Hormuz closure. Recent missile strikes near Fujairah and Jebel Ali have...
Borderlands Mexico: Canada, Mexico Draw Record Foreign Investment in 2025
Canada and Mexico posted record foreign direct investment in 2025, underscoring North America’s growing role as a manufacturing hub. Canada received $96.8 billion, the strongest inflow in 18 years, while Mexico attracted a historic $40.87 billion, a 10.8% year‑over‑year rise. U.S. investors...
Qatar March Sulphur Price Announcement Postponed
State‑owned QatarEnergy Marketing postponed its March Qatar Sulphur Price (QSP) announcement to 4 March, citing recent geopolitical developments. February’s QSP was set at $520 per tonne FOB, a modest $3 increase from January. The delay follows the US‑Israeli strike on Iran,...
Crude Oil Prices to Cross $100? What Experts Predict After US, Israel Attack on Iran
Following US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran and the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, crude oil prices surged, with WTI at $67.29 and Brent at $72.87. Barclays raised its Brent forecast to $100 per barrel, citing heightened supply‑disruption risk...
AI: The Great Disruptor and Where Smart Money Is Moving
Artificial intelligence is moving from hype to tangible disruption, with AI‑driven code generation eroding the market value of traditional IT services firms such as IBM, which saw a 13% drop in market capitalisation. The technology is also bypassing established middlemen...