US Fed's Austan Goolsbee, Beth Hammack Say Inflation Is Flashing 'Orange' Or Worse
Federal Reserve officials Austan Goolsbee and Beth Hammack warned that inflation remains the dominant risk, rating it at least orange and possibly moving toward red amid rising energy costs and lingering tariff effects. They both emphasized the need for tighter monetary policy despite a strong labor market, which they rated yellow to green but described as fragile. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, suggesting near‑full employment, while the financial system was judged generally stable. Their comments came just before the March jobs report, the strongest payroll gain in years.
India’s Coffee Exports Hit a Record High of $2.13 Billion in 2025-26 Fiscal
India’s coffee exports surged to a record $2.13 billion in FY 2025‑26, a 17% increase over the prior year. Export volumes rose 4.65% to 4.07 lakh tonnes, while the average price per tonne jumped 17% to roughly $5,600. The growth was driven by...
NY Fed Says March Supply Chain Pressures Highest Since Start of 2023
The New York Federal Reserve’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index rose to 0.68 in March, up from 0.54 in February, marking the highest level since early 2023. The increase follows a peak of 4.49 in December 2021, but remains well...
March Services PMI Signals Continued Growth as Costs and Global Tensions Weigh on Outlook
The Institute for Supply Management reported a March Services PMI of 54.0, marking the 21st consecutive month of expansion but a 2.1% dip from February. New orders surged to 60.6, while the employment sub‑index slipped to 45.2, indicating job contraction....
Wells Fargo Investment Institute Downgrades Energy Sector to 'Unfavorable' On Limited War Premium
Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII) downgraded the S&P 500 energy sector to "unfavorable," arguing that the war‑driven oil‑price premium is likely short‑lived. The sector has outperformed, gaining more than 6% since the Middle East conflict began, the strongest among S&P sectors....
USMEF: US Pork, Beef Exports Deliver Strong Per-Head Value
US pork exports delivered a per‑head value of over $67 in February, while beef reached nearly $423 per fed animal, according to USMEF data. Pork shipments increased 1% to 242,511 tonnes, with notable growth in Mexico and a 20% rebound in...
India Resilient as Global Economy Shifts From ‘Shocks’ to 'Permanent Volatility'
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman warned that the global economy is shifting from episodic shocks to “permanent volatility” driven by trade fragmentation and the West Asia conflict. She highlighted India’s strong fiscal position, with general government debt at about 81% of...
Metal Tariff Adjustments Aren’t a Win for Packaging, Trade Groups Say
The Trump administration revised Section 232 metal tariffs, keeping a 50% rate on products made almost entirely of aluminum, steel or copper while lowering the levy to 25% for derivative items substantially composed of those metals. Items containing 15% or less...
Bid to Add Bicycles to Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Is Denied
The Trump administration rejected a proposal to extend a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum to imported bicycles, keeping the current duty structure unchanged. The request, filed by Guardian Bikes and the Aluminum Extruders Council, sought to tax the metal...
Is Economic Forecasting Still Possible?
The sudden outbreak of war in Iran has dramatically disrupted global oil supply routes, causing a sharp surge in oil prices. This shock has forced central banks, finance ministries, and forecasters to confront an unprecedented macroeconomic environment. Traditional forecasting models,...
China’s Yuan May Be Going Global Faster than Western Data Suggests, Analysts Say
Analysts argue that China’s yuan is expanding globally faster than traditional metrics reveal, as an increasing volume of cross‑border transactions now flow through the country’s own payment network, CIPS. Because CIPS and bilateral settlement channels bypass SWIFT’s messaging system, they...
Jamie Dimon's Three-Pronged Warning: Iran Inflation Risk, Private Credit Cracks, and AI's Unknowns
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon used his annual shareholder letter to flag three intertwined risks for 2026: a potential inflation surge from the Iran war, higher‑than‑expected losses in private‑credit markets, and unpredictable second‑order effects from artificial‑intelligence adoption. He likened the inflation...
Trump Metal Tariffs Stick Around, with some New Exceptions
The Trump administration has reaffirmed its Section 232 tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and copper, keeping the 50% duty on primary metal products while introducing tiered rates for lower‑content items. Products with substantial metal composition now face a 25% duty, those...
Trump Turmoil in Asia Sends Chills Through Seoul While China Keeps Its Cool
The Middle East war has amplified volatility across Asian equity markets, with Japan's Nikkei and India's Sensex each plunging around 13% in March, while South Korea's Kospi fell 13% since February before rebounding 8% in April. Trump’s unpredictable statements added...
Bank of America Downgrades Carvana. Why the Stock's Recent Dip Isn't a Buying Opportunity
Bank of America downgraded Carvana to neutral and lowered its price target to $360 from $400, still implying roughly 15% upside from the latest close. The used‑car retailer’s shares have fallen 26% in 2026 after a near‑four‑fold rally in 2024‑25,...
34,000 Shipping Routes Diverted From Hormuz Disruption: Report
More than 34,000 vessels were forced to reroute in the first four weeks after the Feb. 28 U.S.–Israel strike on Iran, with week 4 recording the highest diversion volume. Project44’s data show that traffic has not reverted to pre‑disruption patterns, as carriers...
China Provides E-Commerce Guidelines After Visit of EU Legislators
China released new e‑commerce guidance aimed at aligning domestic growth with international markets, following a high‑profile visit by European Parliament members. The policy encourages Chinese platforms to set up overseas procurement bases, expand imports of premium goods, and create an...
Retailers Rely on This Tariff Mitigation Tactic. Congress Has Noticed.
Retailers are increasingly using the decades‑old First Sale customs rule to lower tariff liabilities, with Target citing the method in its FY2025 filing and reporting sizable refunds. The rule lets importers declare the price paid in the earliest transaction of...
West Asia Crisis Hits Activated Carbon Exports as Costs Surge Amid Shipping Woes
The West Asia crisis has shut Red Sea shipping lanes, halting Indian activated carbon shipments to key gold‑mining markets such as Sudan and Egypt. Exporters now face a $3,000 war‑risk surcharge per 40‑ft container and an extra $1,800 cost to...
Gold-Fuelled Import Surge Widens Canada’s Trade Gap to $5.7 Billion
Canada’s merchandise trade deficit widened to a record $5.7 bn CAD (about $4.2 bn USD) in February 2026, driven largely by a 45.6% jump in gold imports. Imports rose 8.4% to $72.1 bn CAD (~$52.6 bn USD) while exports grew 6.4% to $66.3 bn CAD...
America’s Currency Is the Global South’s Problem
The article argues that although the U.S. dollar’s share of global foreign reserves has been slipping since its 2001 peak, the decline is incremental, ensuring the greenback’s dominance for the foreseeable future. Nations in the Global South cannot simply wait...
US Stocks Rise as Dip Buyers Return Amid Ceasefire Hopes
U.S. equities nudged higher on Tuesday as investors returned after a dip, spurred by diplomatic talks toward a cease‑fire in the Iran‑Hormuz dispute. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.4% while crude oil edged up after OPEC+ signaled...
US Bonds Steady as Traders Bet War Uncertainty Keeps Fed on Hold
Bond traders entered the week betting the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold, leaving two‑year Treasury yields near 3.86% and 10‑year yields around 4.34%. The market’s steadiness reflects lingering uncertainty from the Iran‑U.S. conflict, especially after President Trump...
Liberia: How Many Shocks Before We Build Our Own Strength?
Liberia’s economy is repeatedly jolted by external shocks—from wars to pandemics to soaring oil prices—because it imports nearly all its petroleum and relies heavily on raw‑material exports. The editorial argues that explaining these price spikes is insufficient; the country needs...
Kyodo News Digest: April 6, 2026
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signaled willingness to hold summit talks with Iran as U.S. pressure over the Strait of Hormuz intensifies. In March, Chinese military aircraft and balloons near Taiwan fell by half, marking a rare lull after daily...
Africa Confronts G7 Double Standards as Ruto Is Invited, Ramaphosa Shut Out
The G7 will invite Kenya’s President William Ruto to the June 2026 summit in France while excluding South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, ending a decade‑long tradition of Pretoria representing the continent. French officials described the guest list as comprising “democracies...
US Department of Commerce Launches More Antidumping and Countervailing Investigations Into Foreign Shrimp
The U.S. Department of Commerce has opened a new round of antidumping and countervailing investigations covering shrimp exporters from India, Vietnam, Thailand and China. The review will examine over 1,000 companies—394 from India, 299 from Vietnam, and 199 each from...
Global Equity Funds Draw Second Weekly Inflow Amid War De-Escalation Hopes
Investors poured a net $15.02 billion into global equity funds during the week of March 26‑April 1, marking a second consecutive week of inflows as hopes rise that the US‑Israeli conflict with Iran may de‑escalate. Overall, global equity funds attracted roughly $40.14 billion, while...
Oil Prices Give Up Early Gains On Iran War Ceasefire Hopes
Oil prices slipped on Monday after reports that the United States and Iran were engaging in indirect negotiations for a potential 45‑day cease‑fire. Brent crude for June delivery fell 0.4% to $108.56 a barrel, down from an intraday high of...
The Mispricing of War
A US‑Israeli campaign against Iran is exposing how war is heavily subsidized worldwide. The piece argues that initiators rarely shoulder the full price, with costs spilling across borders, markets, and time. Recent throttling of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz...
Raimondo on How European Industry Is Getting Crushed | Odd Lots
Gina Raimondo warned that Chinese subsidies and a surge in cheap imports are hollowing out Europe’s industrial base, especially in Germany’s chemicals and automotive sectors. She stressed that without a coordinated US‑Europe technology alliance, the transatlantic partnership cannot compete with...
Crude Oil Unlikely to Fall to $70 in 2026, May Remain at $80-85; Risks to Growth, Inflation: UBI Report
Union Bank of India’s latest outlook predicts crude oil will stay in an $80‑85 per barrel band through 2026, dismissing expectations of a drop to $70. The report warns that prices breaching $100‑120 could trigger a sharper monetary response from...
‘Open the F***in’ Strait’: Trump
President Donald Trump posted a profanity‑filled warning on Truth Social demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling heightened U.S. pressure amid the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict. The weekend saw fresh attacks on Gulf ports, including a fire at the UAE’s Khorfakkan...
India Turns to Iran for Oil and Gas After 7-Year Hiatus, Signaling Limits to U.S. Tilt
India has restarted oil and LPG purchases from Iran after a seven‑year break, following a U.S. waiver that temporarily lifts sanctions on Iranian crude. The Ministry of Petroleum confirmed shipments, including a 44,000‑metric‑tonne LPG cargo, as refiners seek to offset...
Bangladesh Garment Makers See some Costs Triple in Wake of Iran War
Bangladesh’s garment sector, a cornerstone of the nation’s economy, is feeling the ripple effects of the Iran war as key synthetic fibres and chemicals have risen 10 % to 15 % in price. At least one critical input has seen its cost...
How One Factory in China Learned to Live with Tariffs and Turmoil
Agilian Technology, a $30 million Chinese electronics maker, weathered a turbulent 2025 as U.S. tariffs under President Trump froze more than half its revenue from American clients. The firm diversified by establishing production links in Malaysia and scouting facilities in India,...
PMI Services Slips to 14-Month Low of 57.5 in March
India's services PMI fell to 57.5 in March, a 14‑month low, reflecting war impact. Input‑price inflation hit a 45‑month high, while job creation rose for a third month, strongest since mid‑2025. The slowdown mirrors manufacturing PMI dropping to 53.9. Export...
Collateral Damage: How the Middle East War Is Deepening Nigeria’s Transport and Food Crises
The escalation of the Middle East conflict has sent global crude prices soaring, pushing Nigeria’s pump price from roughly $1.85 per litre to about $3, a 60% increase. In Abuja, transport fares have more than doubled, with typical rides now...
‘Walking on Eggshells’: How Trump Is Managing His Delicate China Truce
The Trump administration has placed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at the center of a cautious economic détente with China, steering away from the hard‑line posture of earlier hawks. President Trump’s upcoming May visit aims for a trade win rather than...
Iran Tensions, Crude Oil Surge Keep Dalal Street on Edge
Rising crude‑oil prices and heightened Iran‑U.S. tensions pushed Indian equities lower on Monday. The BSE Sensex fell about 120 points (‑0.16%) to 73,199 and the NSE Nifty slipped 13 points (‑0.06%) to 22,700. Brent crude rose to $109.78 per barrel...
Orban on the Brink: Could Hungary’s Election Dent China’s Influence in Europe?
Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party is trailing the newly formed Tisza Party in polls ahead of Hungary’s April 12 parliamentary election. The contest is being framed as a referendum on whether Budapest will deepen its alignment with China and Russia or re‑orient...
Europe Is Stuck With America
European leaders are confronting deep economic and military reliance on the United States after a year of Trump‑era tariffs, threats to withdraw troops, and pressure on energy supplies. The U.S. now accounts for over 20% of Europe’s exports and supplies...
The Iran Shock
Within weeks of the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, Tehran’s near‑shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz halted roughly 20% of global oil and LNG transit, sending crude prices up 55% and gasoline up about $1 per gallon. The disruption exposed the...
Oil Crisis Hitting Asia Foreshadows Tough Times for Europe
The war in Iran has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting global oil supplies by about 10 % and pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel. The disruption also curtails LNG flows, tightening energy inputs for power and fertilizer production....
Somalia vs Somaliland: Why Recognizing Somaliland Makes Strategic Sense for Trump & USA?
Donald Trump’s harsh criticism of Somalia underscores a stark contrast with Somaliland, which has built a functioning democratic state since its 1991 independence claim. Somaliland operates under a 2001 constitution, holds regular elections, and maintains its own security forces, currency,...
Iran Rejects Trump’s Ultimatum on Strait of Hormuz, Calls Him ‘Unstable’
Iran's culture minister denounced President Donald Trump as unstable after Trump threatened to bomb Iranian power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed. Trump warned of a strike on Tuesday, insisting the waterway must remain open for...
Stock Market Today: Gift Nifty Down; US-Iran War, Oil, Gold, Silver Rates — Seven Stocks to Buy or Sell on...
Indian equities experienced sharp swings, with the Sensex dropping 2.22% and the Nifty 2.14% at the close of FY26. The new FY27 opened higher, gaining about 1.6% on banking, IT and auto stocks, but slipped again after renewed US‑Iran tension....
Tokyo Equities on Edge as Iran Tensions Cloud Outlook
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.47% to 53,123.49 on April 3, reflecting heightened sensitivity to Iran‑related geopolitical risk. A U.S. deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and President Trump’s frustrated social‑media remarks have kept markets on edge. Traders anticipate...
Philippines Inflation Seen Quickening as Oil and Food Costs Rise
Philippine headline inflation is projected to rise sharply in March, with estimates ranging from 3.5% to 4.3% after February’s 2.4% rate. The surge is driven by higher oil, electricity and food prices, especially rice. Analysts warn the reading could push...
Corridors Through the Caucasus
Azerbaijan is leveraging its strategic location between Europe and Asia to develop the Middle Corridor, investing heavily in rail, port and aviation infrastructure to become a multimodal logistics hub. The government aims to diversify its hydrocarbon‑dependent economy by capturing high‑value,...