Threats Abound to India’s Traditional Geopolitical Role
India’s multialignment strategy is under strain as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran triggered a domestic LPG shortage, exposing the country’s energy fragility. Simultaneously, New Delhi’s decision to reopen critical sectors to Chinese foreign direct investment deepens its reliance on a strategic rival. Washington’s recent Section 301 investigation and tariff threats further complicate the Indo‑U.S. partnership, while India’s lag in indigenous technology erodes its strategic autonomy. The convergence of these pressures could transform multialignment into multidependence unless India accelerates R&D and supply‑chain resilience.
UAE Central Bank Launches Resilience Package
The Central Bank of the UAE approved a five‑pillar Financial Institution Resilience Package to fortify the banking sector amid heightened geopolitical risk and volatile markets. The framework expands access to reserve balances up to 30% of the cash reserve requirement...
JV Ejercito Pushes for Creation of Inter-Agency Task Force on Middle East Conflict
Senator Joseph Victor "JV" Ejercito urged the Philippine government on March 23 to create an inter‑agency task force that would monitor and mitigate the economic and energy fallout from the escalating Middle East conflict. He cited Senate Resolution No. 43, which...
Middle East Oil Shock Hits Home for Smaller Japanese Companies
Smaller Japanese companies across auto parts, plastics, and trucking are feeling the impact of the largest Middle East oil‑supply disruption in decades. Crude prices have jumped to multi‑year highs, driving up fuel and raw‑material costs for firms that typically operate...
Farmers Sound Alarm over Imminent Food Price Shocks
Australia’s National Farmers’ Federation warns that soaring diesel prices, triggered by the US‑Israel war on Iran, will soon push grocery costs higher. Farmers are struggling to secure fuel for operations, while transport firms face mounting freight expenses. The National Road...
Tech Council of Australia Claims the Sector Is Now Worth 9% of GDP
The Tech Council of Australia’s new report values the technology sector at $248.5 billion, representing 8.9% of national GDP, and emphasizes that indirect tech adoption now drives most of that contribution. Direct tech output has doubled since 2015 but its share...
The Price of Uncertainty: How Trade Volatility Is Breaking Chemical Supply Chains
Trade policy volatility is reshaping chemical supply chains, with U.S. chemical imports spiking to over $20 billion in March 2025 before plunging in April, leaving firms with excess inventory. The February 28 Iran‑Israel conflict triggered a 62% jump in Brent crude...
FTSE 100 Live: Stocks Jittery After Trump’s Latest TACO; Oil Price Slips
President Donald Trump issued a 48‑hour ultimatum demanding the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting sharp swings in the FTSE 100 and a dip in oil prices below $100. After Trump announced that “productive” talks had delayed his threat,...
Inflation Relief Under Threat as Global Energy Shocks Loom
Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 15.06% year‑on‑year in February 2026, a modest drop from January’s 15.10% and far below last year’s 26.27%. However, month‑on‑month inflation accelerated to 2.01% and food prices jumped 4.69%, indicating persistent cost pressures. Rising global oil...
Luis De Guindos: Interview with El Mundo
In a March 20 interview, ECB Vice‑President Luis de Guindos warned that the Middle‑East war will significantly pressure euro‑area growth and inflation, though he does not expect a recession even under the most severe scenarios. The central bank’s baseline assumes...
‘Outlook Has Grown More Daunting’: Moody’s Warns on Asia-Pacific Growth, Sees Slowdown to 4% in 2026 Amid Heightened Middle East...
Moody’s projects Asia‑Pacific GDP growth slowing to 4 % in 2026 and 3.6 % in 2027, down from 4.3 % in 2025. The downgrade reflects surging commodity prices from the Middle‑East conflict and lingering U.S. tariff uncertainty. Export performance remains resilient, driven by...
Global Economy Faces Major Threat Amid Worsening Energy Crisis: IEA Chief
International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol warned that the world is heading toward a severe energy crisis as at least 40 oil and gas assets in West Asia have been severely damaged. He described the situation as a combination of two...
HS2 Firm Says New Steel Tariffs Will ‘Exacerbate’ Cost Pressures for UK Construction Industry
The UK government will double import duties on foreign steel to 50% and slash import quotas by 60% from July, aiming to protect domestic steelmakers. HS2 contractor Mace warned the move will exacerbate already‑inflated construction costs, as the Iran‑war energy...
Crude Oil Prices Rise as US-Iran Tensions Escalate over Infrastructure Threats
Crude oil futures surged on Monday as US‑Iran tensions escalated, pushing Brent crude above $108 per barrel and WTI close to $99. The rise was sparked by President Trump’s ultimatum to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran’s retaliatory...
Gold Loses Its Luster as Stagflation Risk Jumps on Iran War
Gold’s price has slumped more than 15% this month as stagflation concerns surge following the Iran war, and the market now assigns roughly a 30% chance of a Fed rate hike by year‑end, up from expectations of multiple cuts a...
Japan Weighs Cutting Inflation-Linked Bond Buybacks as Demand Rises
Japan is considering trimming its inflation‑linked government bond buy‑backs to about ¥15 billion per operation for April and June, down from ¥20 billion a month in Q1. The change follows a rise in break‑even inflation rates above 1.9%, indicating stronger investor demand...
Middle East War to Dominate Houston's 'Davos of Energy'
CERAWeek in Houston is set to host over 10,000 energy leaders as the Middle East war triggers the biggest oil disruption in history. Attendees include S&P Global’s Daniel Yergin, EDF’s Mark Brownstein, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, and CEOs from...
How the West Asian Conflict Upended Global Monetary Policy
The US‑Iran war has forced major central banks to pause rate cuts, reversing earlier expectations. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Japan all kept rates steady, while Sweden and Switzerland...
Japanese Stocks Decline as Hormuz Fears Amplify Risk-Off Mood
Japanese equities tumbled after former President Donald Trump threatened attacks on power plants near the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting concerns over rising oil prices. The Nikkei 225 dropped as much as 5% to 50,688.76, while the broader Topix fell 4.5%...
Options Market Eyes 2022 Playbook for Iran War Risks
The options market is looking to the 2022 Russia‑Ukraine crisis playbook as Iran‑related geopolitical risk resurfaces. While the VIX has lingered under the 30‑point threshold, realized S&P 500 volatility remains low despite elevated implied risk premiums and dealers’ short‑gamma positioning. Strategies...
The Economic Consequences of a Low-Skilled Immigration Sudden Stop: Evidence From Korea’s Guest Worker Programme
The study exploits South Korea’s Employment Permit System (EPS) as a natural experiment, showing that the pandemic‑induced 22% drop in low‑skill guest workers caused a sharp labour‑supply shock for manufacturing firms. Firms that relied heavily on EPS workers experienced higher...
New Zealand Struggles to Regain Economic Mojo without Housing Recovery
New Zealand’s economy is faltering as the housing market, long used as a growth engine, remains 20% below its pandemic peak despite the Reserve Bank’s aggressive rate cut to 2.25%. The RBNZ now projects flat house prices for the year, while...
Starmer to Chair Crisis Meeting as Trump’s Iran Deadline Looms
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will chair an emergency meeting with senior ministers and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey to assess the economic fallout from President Donald Trump’s 48‑hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The...
How Do You Manage Inflation when It’s Driven by Climate Disasters and Overseas Fuel Shocks?
Recent reforms have modernised the Reserve Bank of Australia's governance but left its core inflation‑targeting framework unchanged, exposing a mismatch with today’s climate‑driven price pressures. Extreme weather events, overseas fuel shocks and soaring insurance costs are now regular contributors to...
US Lifts Sanctions on Iranian Oil at Sea
The United States announced it will lift maritime sanctions on Iranian oil, allowing tankers to transport crude through the Strait of Hormuz without penalty. The move comes amid escalating military exchanges between Tehran and Washington‑backed Israel, which have driven oil...
U.S. Stocks Fall to 6-Month Low Over War and Oil Concerns
U.S. equity benchmarks slipped to six‑month lows as concerns over a protracted Middle East war and rising oil prices intensified. The S&P 500 fell 1.5% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.9%, while the Russell 2000 entered correction territory with a 2% decline. Brent...
India, EU Step up Engagement to Fast-Track Trade, Tech Talks
India and the European Union are accelerating post‑summit engagement through a series of high‑level visits and ministerial meetings. An 11‑member European Parliament delegation will travel to India, while senior officials will hold Indo‑Pacific consultations in May on maritime security and...
Stock Selloff Extends as Iran Conflict Escalates: Markets Wrap
A global sell‑off in equities and Treasuries intensified as the Iran war entered its fourth week, with no signs of de‑escalation. Gold extended its decline for a ninth straight day, highlighting a broad risk‑off across asset classes. Asian markets fell...
Fresh Family Income Survey Likely Ahead of CPI-IW Update
The Ministry of Labour and Employment plans a fresh Working Class Family Income and Expenditure Survey, the first in a decade, to support a base‑year update of the Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI‑IW) to 2025. The survey will...
India, 39 Others Raise Concerns over China-Led Investment Pact Proposal
Around 40 countries, including India and Turkey, have lodged objections to a China‑led Investment Facilitation for Development (IFD) proposal at the WTO ministerial meeting. Proponents aim to adopt the framework as a plurilateral agreement at the MC14 in Cameroon, arguing...
Ministry Eyes Oil Excise Tax Trims
Thailand's Finance Ministry is evaluating oil excise tax reductions to curb retail fuel prices while protecting fiscal health. A 1 baht cut in diesel excise would forfeit roughly 2 billion baht, and a similar cut for gasoline would cost about 800 million baht....
Amazon Sees India as High-Growth Market, Expands Seller Incentives and Logistics Network: Report
Amazon is treating India as a long‑term growth market, expanding its zero‑referral‑fee program to cover roughly 125 million products. The company announced an additional $35 billion investment in India by 2030, on top of the $40 billion already spent. A new air...
Middle East War: Global Economic Fallout
International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol warned that the Middle East war poses a major threat to the global economy as at least 40 energy assets across nine countries are severely damaged. Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel for...
Oil Futures Face New Pressure as the US and Iran Trade Threats to Strike Key Infrastructure
Oil futures surged on Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran of bombing its power plants unless the Strait of Hormuz reopened within 48 hours. Brent crude rose 1.27% to about $113.5 a barrel and WTI to $99, pushing...
Iran Says Hormuz Open To All But ‘Enemy-Linked’ Ships
Iran’s UN maritime representative Ali Mousavi announced that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to all vessels except those linked to “Iran’s enemies.” The statement follows a U.S. warning that Tehran’s power plants could be targeted if the strait is...
Trump’s 48-Hour Hormuz Ultimatum to Iran Raises Stakes in Gulf War
President Donald Trump issued a 48‑hour ultimatum demanding Iran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the obliteration of its power plants. Iran responded by threatening to strike U.S. energy, information‑technology and desalination infrastructure across the Gulf. The exchange...
The Oil Shell Game: Peeling Away the Bluster of the Latest Oil Announcements
The Trump Administration announced temporary licenses to allow Iranian and Russian crude to move and offered 86 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Experts argue the licensing is largely symbolic, as sanctions, insurance gaps, and financing constraints keep...
Facing a ‘Crisis’, EU Millers Seek Safeguard Duties on Rice
The European Union is weighing safeguard duties on rice imports after the Federation of Rice Millers pressed for a review of existing trade agreements. EU rice imports have reached roughly 1.7 million tonnes, a large share arriving under zero‑tariff arrangements. A...
As Global Yuan Use Expands, Questions Resurface About China’s World-Leading Forex Reserves
A Renmin University report urges China to trim its $3.42 trillion foreign‑exchange reserves, which sit at roughly 16% of GDP, to a more moderate level of about 11.5% of GDP as the yuan gains global traction. The paper argues that a...
India to Focus on Core Priorities Amid WTO Reform Push at MC14 This Week
The 14th WTO Ministerial Conference in Yaounde will focus on institutional reforms aimed at reviving a stalled dispute‑settlement system and accelerating negotiations. India is warning that any changes must preserve consensus‑based rule‑making, MFN treatment and Special & Differential Treatment for...
International Business Briefs | Economist Shin Hyun-Song Tapped to Lead Bank of Korea Amid Inflation Risks
South Korea named economist Shin Hyun‑song, famed for foreseeing the 2008 crisis, as the next Bank of Korea governor as the nation confronts inflation risks from the Iran war and uneven Asian growth. In the United States, a federal jury held...
Iran Vows to Hit Oil Sites if US Strikes Power Plants
Iran warned it will destroy oil facilities and critical infrastructure across the Middle East if the United States strikes its power plants, following President Donald Trump's ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by March 23. The parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said...
What’s Happening in EM: Oil Spikes Upend Local Bonds (Podcast)
Bloomberg’s Emerging Markets podcast notes that soaring oil prices have forced a revision of global interest‑rate expectations, unsettling the once‑popular strategy of investing in emerging‑market local‑currency bonds. The energy price shock is prompting investors to unwind positions as higher rates...
South vs West: African Banking Majors Scramble for East African Market
African banking giants from Nigeria and South Africa are accelerating acquisitions and greenfield launches in East Africa, drawn by Kenya’s role as a regional financial hub and the trade‑finance potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area. The Central Bank...
Borderlands Mexico: Court Ruling on Tariffs Sets Off Refund Scramble, Legal Uncertainty
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, overturning a key tool used to target imports linked to fentanyl, migration and other concerns. The decision opens the door to potentially $166 billion in refunds...
Govt Eyes 5.7% First-Quarter Growth on Holiday Spending
Indonesia's government lifted its first‑quarter GDP growth outlook to 5.7%, up from 5.5%, citing strong holiday‑season consumption. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said the surge stems from household spending during Ramadan‑Idul Fitri and resilient private‑sector demand. The administration also pledged to...
Bank of England Expected to Keep Rates Steady Into Next Year
The Bank of England is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged through next year, as inflation pressures persist. Oxford Economics attributes the heightened risk to rising energy prices driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The central bank’s...
Korea Names BIS Veteran, Financial Stability Expert as BOK Head
South Korea announced Shin Hyun Song, a veteran BIS official and financial‑stability scholar, as its next Bank of Korea governor. The nomination comes as the BOK faces heightened uncertainty from the Iran conflict, rising oil prices and a delicate balance...
Will The Middle East Crisis Upend The Bull Market In Stocks?
Equity markets are underestimating the risk of a major energy shock from a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could choke global oil and LNG supplies. While U.S. economic growth remains solid, driven by fiscal stimulus and a manufacturing...
Europe’s Trade with Iran: Which Countries Do the Most Business with Tehran?
EU‑Iran trade collapsed to €3.72 billion in 2025, the lowest level in two decades, as renewed sanctions tightened economic ties. Germany remains the dominant EU partner, accounting for 31.8% of the remaining trade, followed by Italy and the Netherlands, together representing...