What Rob Jetten’s New Minority Government Means for Dutch and European Defense
Rob Jetten leads the Netherlands’ first minority coalition, formed by D66, CDA and VVD, holding only 66 of 150 parliamentary seats. The government’s agenda emphasizes a stronger European pillar within NATO, a 3.5% of GDP defence spending target, and joint European defence procurement. To pass legislation, the cabinet must negotiate with a fragmented opposition across sixteen parties. Its success will signal whether a minority government can steer Dutch and broader European security policy amid fiscal prudence and geopolitical shifts.
RBI Net Buys Record $6.2 Billion Debt to Shield Bonds From War Shockwaves
The Reserve Bank of India purchased a record 572.10 billion rupees (about $6.2 billion) of government bonds in the week ending 6 March, marking its third straight week of net buying. The purchases are part of a broader liquidity infusion strategy aimed at...
Brazil Imposes 12% Tax on Crude Exports Amid US-Iran War
Brazil announced a provisional measure that eliminates federal PIS and Cofins taxes on diesel for domestic consumption while imposing a 12% export tax on crude oil and a 50% levy on diesel shipments. The move, driven by soaring crude prices...
Canada Loses 84,000 Jobs in February, Unemployment Rate Increases: Statistics Canada
Canada’s labour market contracted in February 2026, with Statistics Canada reporting a loss of 84,000 jobs, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.7%. The decline was driven by a 47,000‑job drop among youth and a 41,000‑job loss among men aged 25‑54,...
Italy Weighs Options as Damaged Russian LNG Tanker Drifts in the Mediterranean
A Russian LNG tanker, the Arctic Metagaz, was struck by Ukrainian naval drones and left drifting in the Mediterranean between Italy and Malta. The vessel’s 30 crew were evacuated, and while the hull remains afloat, the amount of LNG on board...
Canada Dodges Trump’s New Tariff Probe but CUSMA Clock Is Ticking
Canada escaped inclusion in the Trump administration's latest Section 301 tariff investigations, even as Washington revamps its trade‑war toolkit after a Supreme Court setback. The U.S. has imposed interim 10% tariffs under Section 122, with a potential rise to 15% before a...
The Loadstar Explainers: CBP Refund Process; USTR Section 301 Investigation; Jones Act Waiver Plan
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection is near‑completion of CAPE, a new module within the ACE platform that will let importers electronically claim refunds on duties imposed under IEEPA. The USTR has launched a Section 301 investigation into alleged overcapacity in...
As Global Cotton Firms up and Rupee Weakens, CAI Pares 2025-26 Cotton Import Projections
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) trimmed its 2025‑26 cotton import forecast to 47 lakh bales, down three lakh from the earlier 50‑lakh estimate, citing higher international prices, a weaker rupee and rising freight costs. Despite the cut, imports remain above...
India, US on the Heels of Finalising a Critical Minerals Agreement, ‘Big Announcement in Few Months’, Says Sergio Gor
U.S. Ambassador Sergio Gor announced that India and the United States are on the brink of finalising a critical minerals agreement, with a major public announcement expected within months. The pact is designed to shore up supply chains for advanced...
Dragon No Longer in the Cab: Senator Cotton and Rep. Stefanik Quietly Move to Eject China From American Trucking
Rep. Elise Stefanik introduced the Trucking Security and CCP Disclosure Act of 2026, mandating that every carrier in the Department of Defense freight chain certify it has no ownership or control ties to Chinese military‑linked entities. The bill creates a...
Cardoso Returns CBN to Central Banking Orthodoxy
Nigeria’s central bank, under new governor Olayemi Cardoso, has shifted back to orthodox monetary policy after a period of development‑bank‑style interventions. Since taking office in October 2023, Cardoso led a tightening cycle that pushed the policy rate to a record...
Living the Unseen War: Egyptians Feel Ripple Effects of Iran Conflict
Egypt raised domestic fuel prices by 14‑17% after the Strait of Hormuz closure, prompting immediate transport fare hikes and higher food costs for ordinary Egyptians. The surge in energy prices has accelerated inflation, with staple items like bread and tomatoes...
Italian Industrial Production Started 2026 on a Soft Footing
Italy's industrial production in January 2026 slipped 0.6% month‑on‑month, extending a downturn. Year‑on‑year output also fell 0.6%, reversing a modest 2.7% gain recorded in December. While energy output grew and transport equipment rose, consumer, intermediate and investment goods contracted, and...
Trump Is ‘Wrong’: Europeans Slam US Decision to Ease Russia Oil Sanctions
European leaders, including Germany’s Friedrich Merz, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, condemned the Trump administration’s decision to temporarily lift sanctions on stranded Russian oil. They argue the move will replenish Moscow’s war chest and undermine the G7’s unified pressure on Russia...
SE Asia May Fit the Bill as Forwarders Shy Away From US ‘Tariff Silliness’
European freight forwarders are reducing exposure to the United States amid unpredictable tariff policies and turning to South‑East Asia for new import opportunities. The region, bolstered by the broader “China+1” diversification, shows steady growth, with Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam leading...
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Trump Claimed in G7 Call that Iran Is "About to Surrender," Axios Reports
Former President Donald Trump told G7 leaders in a virtual meeting that Iran is "about to surrender," citing the ongoing U.S.-Israel Operation Epic Fury. He boasted that the campaign had eliminated a threat and dismissed Iranian leadership as "deranged scumbags."...
Seven in 10 Americans Say Trump Tariffs Have Cost Them More Money
A Harris Poll finds 72% of Americans say Trump’s tariffs have raised their costs, with grocery items like beef and coffee seeing double‑digit price jumps. Despite a Supreme Court ruling limiting many levies, the administration plans a 15% baseline tariff...
India's Modi Reaches Out to Iran as Energy Crunch Fears Grip the South Asian Nation
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reached out to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, seeking safe passage for Indian vessels as Iran threatens to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. The closure jeopardises roughly half of India’s crude‑oil imports and its primary...
A 60-40 Portfolio Is No Help as War Drives Stagflation Threat
The escalating war in Iran is pushing oil prices higher, reviving stagflation fears across global markets. As inflation expectations rise, both equities and government bonds are falling in tandem, eroding the historic hedge that bonds provide against stock losses. This...
NXT Conclave 2026: PM Modi Unveils India’s Energy Strategy
Prime Minister Narendra Modi used the NXT Conclave to unveil India’s comprehensive energy strategy, emphasizing expanded domestic infrastructure and reduced reliance on imports. He highlighted a surge in strategic petroleum reserves to over 5 million tonnes, a tripling of LPG connections,...
Pharma’s Godfather Moment: Pulled Back Into Tariff Uncertainty
The U.S. Supreme Court nullified President Trump’s emergency authority to impose tariffs, reigniting uncertainty for the pharmaceutical sector. Despite the ruling, most‑favored‑nation (MFN) pricing agreements between branded drug makers and the Administration are expected to hold, though new U.S. manufacturing...
Fitch Raises India's GDP Growth Projection for FY26 to 7.5%
Fitch Ratings raised its forecast for India’s FY 2025‑26 GDP growth to 7.5%, a slight uptick from the 7.4% projected in December. The agency also lifted its outlook for FY 2026‑27 to 6.7% from 6.4%, citing strong domestic demand and double‑digit credit...
Equities Showing Complacency, Vulnerability on Iran, Principal’s Shah Says
Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, warned that equity markets are displaying complacency despite a sharp escalation in oil price expectations tied to the Iran conflict. While her base case envisions oil stabilizing near $90 a barrel,...
Rethinking Transatlantic Power: Why Trade Dependencies Cut Both Ways
The article examines transatlantic trade dependencies, showing that while the United States remains a major market for Europe, the EU actually supplies more strategically important products to the United States than vice‑versa. Data from CEPII indicate the US imports 36...
Middle East Crisis Adds Pressure on Global Automotive Sector
Volkswagen and Volvo warned that the escalating Iran conflict could suppress vehicle demand in the Middle East, a region projected to sell three million light vehicles in 2025, with Iran contributing roughly a third. Executives cited rising consumer anxiety and...
UK Economy Posts No Growth in January
The UK economy stalled in January 2026, with gross domestic product flat month‑on‑month, missing the 0.2% growth forecast. Services output was unchanged while production slipped 0.1%, though construction posted a modest 0.2% rise after three consecutive declines. Over the three...
The Spheres-of-Influence Illusion
For the first time since World War II, the United States, China and Russia are coalescing around an authoritarian notion of sovereignty that privileges raw power over international law. This emerging bloc coincides with a surge in U.S. military activity under...
China’s Credit Shows Surprise Growth as Firms Step Up Borrowing
China’s aggregate financing surged 2.4 trillion yuan in February, outpacing the Bloomberg‑survey median forecast of 2 trillion yuan. The People’s Bank of China reported that banks extended 900 billion yuan of new corporate loans, also beating expectations. The growth was driven by stronger...
Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz Is Spilling Into the Indian Ocean
Conflict between the US‑Israel coalition and Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, forcing commercial vessels to reroute through the Indian Ocean. At least 18 ships have been attacked and dozens have disabled AIS, while Iran permits Chinese‑flagged traffic,...
‘The Largest Supply Disruption in the History of the Global Oil Market’: IEA’s Take on the Hormuz Crisis
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has pledged to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, turning the vital oil chokepoint into a geopolitical weapon. The International Energy Agency warns this blockade represents the largest supply disruption in oil market history,...
India Taps 65m Barrels of Russian Crude
The U.S. Treasury issued a one‑month OFAC wind‑down licence, allowing Russian crude already at sea to complete voyages through April 11. The licence is intended to stabilise energy markets amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis that has disrupted Gulf supplies. Broker...
UK Economy Begins 2026 on a Softer Note Ahead of Energy Price Storm
The UK’s economy started 2026 sluggishly, with January’s GDP unchanged from December as administrative support services and hospitality contracted sharply. While three‑month averages suggest modest growth, the data’s volatility raises uncertainty about the near‑term trajectory. A sustained rise in gas...
FTSE 100 Live: Stocks Fall as Oil Rocks Markets; Reeves Struck by Flat Economy
The FTSE 100 fell as oil prices surged past $100 per barrel, driven by heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran’s new supreme leader vowed to keep the waterway blocked. UK economic data showed flat growth in January,...
China’s AI Adoption May Limit Economic Fallout of Its Rapidly Ageing Population: Analysts
Analysts at Bank of America and S&P Global argue that accelerating AI and robotics adoption in China, South Korea and Japan can cushion the economic drag of rapidly ageing societies. These economies already boast robot densities far above the global...
Hong Kong Gov’t Urged to Stabilise Oil Prices as some Residents Turn to Illicit Fuel Amid Middle East War
Hong Kong lawmakers are pressing the government to curb soaring fuel prices that have risen sharply since the Middle East conflict began in late February. Esso’s standard petrol is up 6.4% to HK$23.43 per litre, while Sinopec’s price has jumped...
Do We Want to Keep Fixing the Same Issue? Unlearned Lessons From the First Big Oil Crisis
The 1973 oil shock forced Europe to choose between quick fixes and systemic change, and a few nations seized the moment to build lasting clean‑energy foundations. Denmark turned the crisis into a wind‑power boom, the Netherlands institutionalised cycling infrastructure, France...
Indonesia’s Local Content Requirements Are No Shortcut to Industrialization
Indonesia’s new Agreement on Reciprocal Trade exempts U.S. firms from the country’s local‑content requirements (LCRs), a policy originally designed to boost domestic manufacturing. The article argues that LCRs alone have not moved Indonesia’s manufacturing share beyond 18‑19 percent and that without...
Thailand Prepares to Defend USTR on Trade Probes
Thailand’s commerce ministry has created a high‑level task force to counter new USTR investigations under Section 301, which target excess capacity in autos, auto parts, machinery and rubber. The United States highlighted a $51 billion trade surplus in Thailand’s favour, up from...
How the Iran War Threatens the Global Food, Energy and Other Supplies
The Iran‑Iran war has turned the Suez‑Oman shipping corridor into a high‑risk, high‑cost route, pushing container freight from $2,000 to $10,000. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is driving volatile oil and gas prices, while broader supply‑chain bottlenecks are...
Kenyan Banks Push Back Against South Sudan’s Minimum Capital Rules
Kenyan banks with subsidiaries in South Sudan are contesting a new recapitalisation directive that raises the minimum paid‑up capital for foreign banks to $20 million by end‑2025, $25 million by June 2026 and $30 million by the end of 2026. The Bank of South...
Strategic Stakes Rise for Bangladesh as Iran Targets Gulf Neighbors
Bangladesh’s economic lifeline to the Gulf hinges on 3 million migrant workers and $24 billion in annual remittances. Recent Iranian missile and drone attacks across GCC airspace have heightened security risks for these expatriates. The government is weighing a neutral diplomatic stance...
Trump Targets Forced Labor in Global Tariff Scheme
The Trump administration launched a sweeping trade investigation into forced‑labor policies across 60 economies, aiming to revive a global tariff system previously blocked by the Supreme Court. The probe targets the legal frameworks governing forced labor in exported goods, not...
Ethiopia Rolls Out Subsidies to Cushion Citizens From Global Oil Shock
Ethiopia announced a special fuel subsidy to blunt the impact of soaring global oil prices after the Strait of Hormuz closure. The government lifted diesel subsidies to 98 birr per litre and petrol subsidies to 73.56 birr, keeping domestic prices below $1...
Iran Vows to Keep Blocking the Strait of Hormuz
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, still recovering from a U.S. strike, declared that Iran will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, leaving roughly 1,000 vessels stranded in the Gulf. While the closure is driven by political retaliation, insurers have confirmed that...
China Slams Trump's Trade Investigation, as It Approves a 5-Year Economic Plan
China’s foreign ministry condemned the United States’ newly announced trade investigation into excess capacity as political manipulation, while the U.S. Trade Representative positioned the probe as a tool to protect American firms after a Supreme Court ruling nullified prior tariffs....
Barry Eichengreen on Money Beyond Borders
Barry Eichengreen’s new book *Money Beyond Borders* traces the rise and fall of global currencies from ancient coinage to modern digital assets, using history to assess the U.S. dollar’s waning dominance. He argues that geopolitical tensions, mounting U.S. debt, and...
Morning Brief Podcast: India Opens the Door to China Investments…a Little
India has quietly revised Press Note 3, easing restrictions on Chinese capital in the country’s startup and technology sectors while keeping telecom and security‑sensitive areas closed. The amendment comes as foreign direct investment has plateaued and institutional investors have withdrawn billions,...
MNC Banks Resist RBI Plan to Access Offshore Deal Data
The Reserve Bank of India has drafted a rule requiring foreign‑bank branches in India to report all non‑deliverable forward (NDF) contracts to the Clearing Corporation of India Ltd. The proposal mandates disclosure of notional values, counterparties, maturities and settlement dates,...
Russian Oil Purchase Allowed… for Now — Scott Bessent Announces ‘Short-Term’ Licence as Crude Prices Rise Amid Iran War
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a short‑term general licence that lets countries buy Russian crude already stranded at sea, aiming to ease the price surge triggered by the U.S.-Israel‑Iran conflict. The licence covers oil loaded onto vessels by March 12...
Retreating but Not Defeated: AUD/USD Bulls Find Hope in Technical Support...
AUD/USD dropped more than 1% from its multi‑year peak as the U.S. dollar rallied on heightened safe‑haven demand. Inflation expectations in Australia rose to 5.2%, prompting markets to price a 78% chance of a 25‑basis‑point RBA hike at the March...