Russian Oil Purchase Allowed… for Now — Scott Bessent Announces ‘Short-Term’ Licence as Crude Prices Rise Amid Iran War
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a short‑term general licence that lets countries buy Russian crude already stranded at sea, aiming to ease the price surge triggered by the U.S.-Israel‑Iran conflict. The licence covers oil loaded onto vessels by March 12 and remains effective until April 11, including product from entities sanctioned under existing Russia sanctions regimes. It is framed as a narrowly targeted measure that will not materially boost Russia’s fiscal earnings, which are largely derived from extraction taxes. The move coincides with a 172 million‑barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve release and an IEA‑led 400 million‑barrel drawdown to stabilize markets.
Retreating but Not Defeated: AUD/USD Bulls Find Hope in Technical Support...
AUD/USD dropped more than 1% from its multi‑year peak as the U.S. dollar rallied on heightened safe‑haven demand. Inflation expectations in Australia rose to 5.2%, prompting markets to price a 78% chance of a 25‑basis‑point RBA hike at the March...
Indonesia and Australia to Expand Security Cooperation to Include Japan, Papua New Guinea
Indonesia and Australia announced plans to broaden their security partnership by creating two trilateral arrangements, one with Japan and another with Papua New Guinea. The initiatives follow the recent Jakarta Treaty, which already deepens bilateral consultations and joint training, and...
Yen Hits New Low Against Singapore Dollar as Middle East Crisis Jolts Oil Prices
The Japanese yen slipped to a fresh low of 124.78 per Singapore dollar, driven by a sharp rise in oil prices linked to the escalating Middle East crisis. Oil breached the $100‑a‑barrel threshold, pushing Japan’s import bill higher and prompting...
Argentina's Inflation Accelerates in Feb
Argentina’s consumer price index jumped to a 33.1% annual rate in February, up from 32.4% in January. The rise marks a continuation of the post‑low inflation trend that began after a cyclical dip to 31.3% in October. Core sectors such...
Foreign Holdings of Thai Stocks Peak
Foreign investors' holdings in Thai equities surged to a record 6.11 trillion baht in January, representing 37.1% of total market capitalisation. Although they were net sellers of Thai stocks last year, they continued to buy non‑voting depository receipts, indicating sustained exposure....
Sanctioned Rubio to Take Part in Trump’s China Trip Despite Previous Missed Opportunities
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has been sanctioned by Beijing and previously rebuffed several invitations, is now slated to join President Donald Trump on a high‑profile visit to China later this month. The South China Morning Post reports...
Global Baku Forum Opens with Iran War Raging Across the Border
The Global Baku Forum opened under the shadow of the Iran war, with Azerbaijan pledging to increase gas supplies to the EU to offset Gulf disruptions. President Ilham Aliyev warned that rising oil prices—now above $100 a barrel—threaten consumers and...
Energy Under Attack: What the Gulf Can Learn From Ukraine and Iraq
Iranian forces struck Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG hub and a Saudi oil facility, underscoring that Gulf energy assets are now frontline targets. The attacks follow a pattern set by the 2019 Abqaiq strikes and highlight the vulnerability of export‑centric infrastructure. Iraq’s...
Firms Plan to Boost Supply-Chain Agility as Tariff Turmoil Persists
U.S. Supreme Court invalidated sweeping tariffs imposed under the 1977 IEEPA, reigniting policy uncertainty for import‑heavy firms. A KPMG survey finds that 40% of U.S. companies will increase spending on supply‑chain agility, while nearly half are already modeling tariff‑mitigation strategies...
How the New Gulf War Is Impacting Mongolia
The February 28 Gulf War between the United States‑Israel coalition and Iran has quickly rippled to Mongolia, prompting its foreign ministry to alert the 281 Mongolian nationals living in the Middle East and arrange emergency repatriation flights. By March 11, 91 citizens...
Dow Dives 739 Points as Oil Prices Spike: Stock Market Today
U.S. equities opened sharply lower on Thursday as oil prices surged after Iran’s new supreme leader announced the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed, pushing front‑month crude up 9.7% to $95.73 a barrel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.6%...
UK Government ‘Flying Blind’ with Poor Data in Charting Regional Growth
The House of Commons Science, Innovation and Technology Committee released a report warning that the UK government lacks reliable data to track regional innovation and growth. It highlights severe gaps in metrics for innovation clusters, spin‑outs, and R&D spending, especially...
Iran War Flips Brazil Diesel vs Biodiesel Prices
The outbreak of the Iran war has pushed global oil‑derivative prices higher, causing imported 10 ppm (S10) diesel in Brazil to trade above biodiesel for the first time since October 2023. On 6 March, S10 diesel at Paranaguá reached R5.173 /m³, surpassing the R4.656 /m³...
US and Allies Clash with Russia and China at UN Security Council over Iran
The United States, chairing the UN Security Council, pushed a vote to discuss the 1737 sanctions committee on Iran, winning 11‑2 despite opposition from Russia and China. U.S. envoy Mike Waltz accused Moscow and Beijing of shielding Tehran’s nuclear and...
Options Traders Are Pricing in ‘Disaster’ as Iran Conflict Intensifies. Here’s How Investors Might Profit.
Options traders are pricing in heightened risk as the Iran‑Israel conflict escalates, driving premiums on oil‑related contracts. CME Group’s CEO Terry Duffy warned that any U.S. attempt to directly intervene in oil futures could trigger a “biblical disaster,” potentially destabilizing...
US Says China Is Not Pricing Out American Battery Anode Makers ITC Votes Negative in Lithium Battery AD/CVD Investigation.
The U.S. International Trade Commission issued a final negative determination in its antidumping and countervailing duty investigation of active anode material (AAM) imports from China. The 2‑1 vote blocks the Department of Commerce from imposing tariffs on Chinese AAM, overturning...
Volatile Shipping Market Drags Down OOCL’s 2025 Financial Results
OOCL’s 2025 results were hit by a volatile shipping market, heightened trade tensions and new US tariffs. Revenue slipped 9.3% year‑over‑year to $9.7 billion, while EBIT and net profit plunged 42% and 41% respectively, each landing at $1.5 billion. Despite the earnings...
Gold Falls Sharply As Iran Vows To Fight Back Harder, Pushing Oil Prices Up Further
Gold prices dropped sharply on Thursday, with front‑month COMEX gold falling $49.8 (‑0.96%) to $5,129.30 per ounce. The decline coincided with crude oil jumping to $94.50 a barrel, up $7.25 (8.31%) as Iran intensified threats and the Strait of Hormuz...
With Active Security Selection, Airport Bonds Can Add Ballast as Geopolitics Rattle Markets
The airport municipal bond sector has demonstrated strong credit resilience, weathering crises such as 9/11, COVID‑19, and recent geopolitical turbulence. Federal relief via the CARES Act prevented mass downgrades, and General Aviation Revenue Bonds (GARBs) have maintained stable, investment‑grade ratings...
China’s High-Tech Narrative Cannot Solve Its Deflation Problem
Premier Li Qiang added the Consumer Price Index to the 2026 Government Work Report, formally acknowledging deflation for the first time. The annual GDP growth target was lowered to 4.5‑5 percent, the first sub‑5 percent goal since 1991. While a trade surplus...
Kroenig on The Beacon of Liberty Podcast on the Truman Doctrine
On March 12, Atlantic Council’s Matthew Kroenig appeared on The Beacon of Liberty podcast to discuss the Truman Doctrine. He traced the policy’s origins to post‑World War II fears of Soviet expansion and highlighted its role in shaping early Cold War strategy. Kroenig linked...
Middle East Conflict Might Create Supply Constraints, Raise in Aluminium Premiums in Mexico
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, choking the primary aluminium supply chain that relies on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) smelters. Force‑majeure notices from Qatalum and Aluminium of Bahrain have driven premiums higher, with...
USITC Probes USMCA Auto Rules’ Impact on Industry Competitiveness
The U.S. International Trade Commission has opened a fact‑finding investigation into how the United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement’s automotive rules of origin affect U.S. competitiveness, especially for advanced and electric vehicles. The probe follows two earlier biennial reports that highlighted mismatches between...
MacroVoices #523 Jim Bianco: Energy, FED & Economy in The Wake of Iran Conflict
Jim Bianco joins MacroVoices to dissect the market fallout from the recent Iran conflict, noting sharp oil price spikes and heightened volatility. He evaluates how potential Fed chair Kevin Warsh could reshape monetary policy amid rising inflation pressures. The discussion...
Emerging Market Bulls Rejoicing, But Will It Last?
Emerging‑market indices have outperformed both the MSCI World and the S&P 500 in early 2026, driven by easing inflation, a weaker dollar, and shifting investor sentiment. Forecasts show EM economies growing around 4 % this year, roughly three times the pace of...
Time to Take Stock and Prepare
The escalating Middle East conflict is pushing crude oil toward $200 a barrel, straining global markets. The Philippines’ strategic reserves only cover about 45 days, leaving the nation exposed to price shocks. A newly mandated four‑day work week will shift...
Gundlach Unlocked: Positioning for Inflation and a Weaker Dollar
In the inaugural Gundlach Unlocked webcast, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach warned that inflation is likely to stay above the Fed’s 2 % target, long‑term rates remain elevated despite recent cuts, and the U.S. dollar may enter a weaker phase. He outlined...
From Volatility To Chaos: Navigating Wartime Impacts For Tech Leaders
The ongoing Middle East conflict is driving a sharp rise in fuel prices, forcing companies like Southwest Airlines and UBS to brace for higher operating costs. Traditional IT operating models, built for gradual stress, are buckling under the rapid, continuous...
Middle East War Fallout: Sub-5% Philippine Growth May Persist This Year
Philippine planners warn that the Middle East conflict‑driven oil price surge could keep growth under 5% this year. DEPDev modeled two price scenarios—$100/barrel in March rising above $80 through May, and $140/barrel staying above $80 until September—each shaving 0.2‑0.3 percentage...
Turkish Central Bank Holds Rates and Shifts Away From Easing Bias
The Central Bank of Turkey kept its one‑week repo rate at 37% and left the interest‑rate corridor unchanged at 35.5%‑40%, signaling a pause amid heightened global risk and rising energy prices. In its statement the bank shifted away from an...
Infrastructure Investment Is the Key to China’s Growth
China's government set a 2026 growth target of 4.5‑5% after meeting its 2025 goal of 5%. 2025 GDP reached CN¥140.19 trillion ($20.4 trillion), with consumption contributing 52%, investment 15.3%, and exports 32.7% of growth. The economy faces geopolitical tensions and a US‑led...
The Briefing Room
Donald Trump suggested the US‑Israel conflict with Iran could end soon, but analysts warn the war may linger, keeping oil markets on edge. Prolonged fighting threatens to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, which...
Watch: Your Oil Questions Answered
ING commodity strategist Warren Patterson discusses the ongoing oil price volatility, with Brent crude intermittently breaching $100 per barrel despite the International Energy Agency’s announcement of record supply releases. He examines how the conflict with Iran, particularly the strategic choke...
Anglo American Iron Ore Cargoes Diverted by Iran War
Anglo American rerouted three iron‑ore vessels after the Strait of Hormuz became impassable following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. The ships—Cape Shangrila, Cape Jasmine and Mineral Zimbabwe—were diverted to Singapore, Vietnam and China respectively. Vale experienced similar disruptions, sending...
Middle East Tensions, Rising Energy and Fertilizer Costs Push Grocery Prices Higher
Grocery prices in February rose 0.4% month‑over‑month, reaching a 2.4% year‑over‑year increase for food consumed at home. The uptick coincides with a 0.6% rise in energy costs and a more than 25% surge in urea fertilizer prices, driven by escalating...
U.S. Trade Deficit Falls in January
The U.S. trade deficit shrank to $54.5 billion in January, a 25 percent drop from December. Exports rose 5.5 percent to $302.1 billion, driven by gold, computers and other precious metals, while imports slipped 0.7 percent to $356.6 billion. The narrowing gap appears amid a tariff...
As War Rages, Multimodal Demand Surges on Asia-Europe Landbridge
Major ocean carriers are rerouting Gulf‑bound cargo to land‑based corridors after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed by the ongoing war. Maersk now ships to Salalah, Khor Fakkan and Jeddah, then secures trucking capacity to move goods into the Persian...
A Year of Tariffs: Looking Back at the Global Impact
A year after the United States launched its aggressive tariff regime, a Javelin Strategy report finds that global supply chains adjusted faster than anticipated, limiting consumer‑price spikes and product shortages. Low‑margin imports such as electronics, toys and apparel remained stable,...
The Relationship Among Oil Prices, Food Costs, and Consumer Inflation
U.S. military actions in the Middle East have driven Brent crude sharply higher, reviving scrutiny of oil’s influence on broader price levels. Historical FRED data reveal that oil price movements have consistently co‑moved with the Global Food Price Index and...
3 Consumer Staples Mutual Funds Amid Inflation, Global Turmoil
The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in February, bringing the year‑over‑year CPI to 2.4% while core inflation held steady at 2.5%. Higher inflation typically pressures discretionary spending more than essential consumer staples, whose demand remains relatively inelastic. In this...
Facing Heavy Losses, Honda Cancels Its Three US-Made Electric Vehicles
Honda announced the cancellation of its three U.S.-made electric vehicles—the Honda 0 SUV, Honda 0 sedan, and Acura RSX EV—after projecting losses of $5.1 billion to $7 billion for the fiscal year. The decision stems from a mix of trade‑war tariffs, the end of the...
Tariffs, Scarce Power and a Splintered Map: The Macro Forces Reshaping Technology Investment to 2035
Technology investment through 2035 will be reshaped by enduring tariffs, fragmented supply chains and tightening infrastructure capacity. Governments are turning tariffs and export controls into permanent industrial tools, forcing chipmakers and device makers to absorb higher, uncertain costs. Simultaneously, AI‑driven...
Beyond the Data Center: Critical Minerals Driving AI
A Sprott report warns that 2026 marks the start of a new commodity supercycle centered on critical minerals. Geopolitical de‑globalization, energy security and the AI boom are pushing demand for metals like copper and uranium. The report highlights the Sprott...
West Asia Conflict Hits Bhilwara Textile Exports; US $86 Million–US $100 Million in Shipments Affected
The Gulf conflict is disrupting trade routes, causing Indian textile exporters to face delays and higher costs. Bhilwara, a major textile hub, now has shipments worth Rs 800‑1,000 crore (US $86‑$108 million) on hold, affecting key markets in the Gulf and Europe. Exporters cite...
Can Global Cooperation Survive a Fragmenting World?
The Peterson Institute for International Economics will host a virtual event titled “Can global cooperation survive a fragmenting world?” on March 24, 2026. Communications manager Anjali V. Bhatt will interview senior fellow Kimberly Clausing to examine how the United States’...
Olivier Blanchard on Eurobonds and Optimism for Europe's Future
Senior economist Olivier Blanchard will discuss Europe’s Eurobonds proposal at a virtual Peterson Institute event on April 14, 2026. He will examine how the bond framework could deepen fiscal integration and address rising defense expenditures. Blanchard also addresses broader challenges...
EU to Respond ‘Firmly and Proportionately’ to Any Breach of US Trade Deal
The European Union announced it will respond "firmly and proportionately" to any breach of the U.S.-EU trade deal signed at the Turnberry resort. This statement follows the United States' Section 301 investigations that could lead to new tariffs on EU goods....
Middle East Conflict Ripples Through Karnataka’s Garment and Silk Industries
The escalating Middle‑East conflict is disrupting Karnataka’s textile supply chain, slashing new garment orders by 25‑30% for March 2026 and pushing overall garment exports down 15‑20%. Export shipments worth roughly $2 billion are stranded, while silk demand has slipped 8% and cocoon...
Iran War Could Leave Lasting Shock on Commodities: Report
The US‑Israel war against Iran has already rattled global commodity markets, tightening supply chains for oil, fertilizers, chemicals and several metals. BMO Capital Markets notes oil prices spiked toward $120 per barrel before settling near $90, while nitrogen fertilizer costs...