NXT Conclave 2026: PM Modi Unveils India’s Energy Strategy
Prime Minister Narendra Modi used the NXT Conclave to unveil India’s comprehensive energy strategy, emphasizing expanded domestic infrastructure and reduced reliance on imports. He highlighted a surge in strategic petroleum reserves to over 5 million tonnes, a tripling of LPG connections, and a three‑fold increase in gas pipelines. The address also underscored rapid renewable growth, with capacity exceeding 250 GW, and aggressive ethanol blending that cuts oil imports by billions of barrels. Modi framed these moves as essential to shield the economy from the global energy shock caused by the Iran conflict.
Pharma’s Godfather Moment: Pulled Back Into Tariff Uncertainty
The U.S. Supreme Court nullified President Trump’s emergency authority to impose tariffs, reigniting uncertainty for the pharmaceutical sector. Despite the ruling, most‑favored‑nation (MFN) pricing agreements between branded drug makers and the Administration are expected to hold, though new U.S. manufacturing...
Fitch Raises India's GDP Growth Projection for FY26 to 7.5%
Fitch Ratings raised its forecast for India’s FY 2025‑26 GDP growth to 7.5%, a slight uptick from the 7.4% projected in December. The agency also lifted its outlook for FY 2026‑27 to 6.7% from 6.4%, citing strong domestic demand and double‑digit credit...
Equities Showing Complacency, Vulnerability on Iran, Principal’s Shah Says
Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, warned that equity markets are displaying complacency despite a sharp escalation in oil price expectations tied to the Iran conflict. While her base case envisions oil stabilizing near $90 a barrel,...
Rethinking Transatlantic Power: Why Trade Dependencies Cut Both Ways
The article examines transatlantic trade dependencies, showing that while the United States remains a major market for Europe, the EU actually supplies more strategically important products to the United States than vice‑versa. Data from CEPII indicate the US imports 36...
Middle East Crisis Adds Pressure on Global Automotive Sector
Volkswagen and Volvo warned that the escalating Iran conflict could suppress vehicle demand in the Middle East, a region projected to sell three million light vehicles in 2025, with Iran contributing roughly a third. Executives cited rising consumer anxiety and...
UK Economy Posts No Growth in January
The UK economy stalled in January 2026, with gross domestic product flat month‑on‑month, missing the 0.2% growth forecast. Services output was unchanged while production slipped 0.1%, though construction posted a modest 0.2% rise after three consecutive declines. Over the three...
The Spheres-of-Influence Illusion
For the first time since World War II, the United States, China and Russia are coalescing around an authoritarian notion of sovereignty that privileges raw power over international law. This emerging bloc coincides with a surge in U.S. military activity under...
China’s Credit Shows Surprise Growth as Firms Step Up Borrowing
China’s aggregate financing surged 2.4 trillion yuan in February, outpacing the Bloomberg‑survey median forecast of 2 trillion yuan. The People’s Bank of China reported that banks extended 900 billion yuan of new corporate loans, also beating expectations. The growth was driven by stronger...
Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz Is Spilling Into the Indian Ocean
Conflict between the US‑Israel coalition and Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, forcing commercial vessels to reroute through the Indian Ocean. At least 18 ships have been attacked and dozens have disabled AIS, while Iran permits Chinese‑flagged traffic,...
‘The Largest Supply Disruption in the History of the Global Oil Market’: IEA’s Take on the Hormuz Crisis
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has pledged to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, turning the vital oil chokepoint into a geopolitical weapon. The International Energy Agency warns this blockade represents the largest supply disruption in oil market history,...
India Taps 65m Barrels of Russian Crude
The U.S. Treasury issued a one‑month OFAC wind‑down licence, allowing Russian crude already at sea to complete voyages through April 11. The licence is intended to stabilise energy markets amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis that has disrupted Gulf supplies. Broker...
UK Economy Begins 2026 on a Softer Note Ahead of Energy Price Storm
The UK’s economy started 2026 sluggishly, with January’s GDP unchanged from December as administrative support services and hospitality contracted sharply. While three‑month averages suggest modest growth, the data’s volatility raises uncertainty about the near‑term trajectory. A sustained rise in gas...
FTSE 100 Live: Stocks Fall as Oil Rocks Markets; Reeves Struck by Flat Economy
The FTSE 100 fell as oil prices surged past $100 per barrel, driven by heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran’s new supreme leader vowed to keep the waterway blocked. UK economic data showed flat growth in January,...
China’s AI Adoption May Limit Economic Fallout of Its Rapidly Ageing Population: Analysts
Analysts at Bank of America and S&P Global argue that accelerating AI and robotics adoption in China, South Korea and Japan can cushion the economic drag of rapidly ageing societies. These economies already boast robot densities far above the global...
Hong Kong Gov’t Urged to Stabilise Oil Prices as some Residents Turn to Illicit Fuel Amid Middle East War
Hong Kong lawmakers are pressing the government to curb soaring fuel prices that have risen sharply since the Middle East conflict began in late February. Esso’s standard petrol is up 6.4% to HK$23.43 per litre, while Sinopec’s price has jumped...
Do We Want to Keep Fixing the Same Issue? Unlearned Lessons From the First Big Oil Crisis
The 1973 oil shock forced Europe to choose between quick fixes and systemic change, and a few nations seized the moment to build lasting clean‑energy foundations. Denmark turned the crisis into a wind‑power boom, the Netherlands institutionalised cycling infrastructure, France...
Indonesia’s Local Content Requirements Are No Shortcut to Industrialization
Indonesia’s new Agreement on Reciprocal Trade exempts U.S. firms from the country’s local‑content requirements (LCRs), a policy originally designed to boost domestic manufacturing. The article argues that LCRs alone have not moved Indonesia’s manufacturing share beyond 18‑19 percent and that without...
Thailand Prepares to Defend USTR on Trade Probes
Thailand’s commerce ministry has created a high‑level task force to counter new USTR investigations under Section 301, which target excess capacity in autos, auto parts, machinery and rubber. The United States highlighted a $51 billion trade surplus in Thailand’s favour, up from...
How the Iran War Threatens the Global Food, Energy and Other Supplies
The Iran‑Iran war has turned the Suez‑Oman shipping corridor into a high‑risk, high‑cost route, pushing container freight from $2,000 to $10,000. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is driving volatile oil and gas prices, while broader supply‑chain bottlenecks are...
Kenyan Banks Push Back Against South Sudan’s Minimum Capital Rules
Kenyan banks with subsidiaries in South Sudan are contesting a new recapitalisation directive that raises the minimum paid‑up capital for foreign banks to $20 million by end‑2025, $25 million by June 2026 and $30 million by the end of 2026. The Bank of South...
Strategic Stakes Rise for Bangladesh as Iran Targets Gulf Neighbors
Bangladesh’s economic lifeline to the Gulf hinges on 3 million migrant workers and $24 billion in annual remittances. Recent Iranian missile and drone attacks across GCC airspace have heightened security risks for these expatriates. The government is weighing a neutral diplomatic stance...
Trump Targets Forced Labor in Global Tariff Scheme
The Trump administration launched a sweeping trade investigation into forced‑labor policies across 60 economies, aiming to revive a global tariff system previously blocked by the Supreme Court. The probe targets the legal frameworks governing forced labor in exported goods, not...
Ethiopia Rolls Out Subsidies to Cushion Citizens From Global Oil Shock
Ethiopia announced a special fuel subsidy to blunt the impact of soaring global oil prices after the Strait of Hormuz closure. The government lifted diesel subsidies to 98 birr per litre and petrol subsidies to 73.56 birr, keeping domestic prices below $1...
Iran Vows to Keep Blocking the Strait of Hormuz
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, still recovering from a U.S. strike, declared that Iran will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, leaving roughly 1,000 vessels stranded in the Gulf. While the closure is driven by political retaliation, insurers have confirmed that...
China Slams Trump's Trade Investigation, as It Approves a 5-Year Economic Plan
China’s foreign ministry condemned the United States’ newly announced trade investigation into excess capacity as political manipulation, while the U.S. Trade Representative positioned the probe as a tool to protect American firms after a Supreme Court ruling nullified prior tariffs....
Barry Eichengreen on Money Beyond Borders
Barry Eichengreen’s new book *Money Beyond Borders* traces the rise and fall of global currencies from ancient coinage to modern digital assets, using history to assess the U.S. dollar’s waning dominance. He argues that geopolitical tensions, mounting U.S. debt, and...
Morning Brief Podcast: India Opens the Door to China Investments…a Little
India has quietly revised Press Note 3, easing restrictions on Chinese capital in the country’s startup and technology sectors while keeping telecom and security‑sensitive areas closed. The amendment comes as foreign direct investment has plateaued and institutional investors have withdrawn billions,...
MNC Banks Resist RBI Plan to Access Offshore Deal Data
The Reserve Bank of India has drafted a rule requiring foreign‑bank branches in India to report all non‑deliverable forward (NDF) contracts to the Clearing Corporation of India Ltd. The proposal mandates disclosure of notional values, counterparties, maturities and settlement dates,...
Russian Oil Purchase Allowed… for Now — Scott Bessent Announces ‘Short-Term’ Licence as Crude Prices Rise Amid Iran War
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a short‑term general licence that lets countries buy Russian crude already stranded at sea, aiming to ease the price surge triggered by the U.S.-Israel‑Iran conflict. The licence covers oil loaded onto vessels by March 12...
Retreating but Not Defeated: AUD/USD Bulls Find Hope in Technical Support...
AUD/USD dropped more than 1% from its multi‑year peak as the U.S. dollar rallied on heightened safe‑haven demand. Inflation expectations in Australia rose to 5.2%, prompting markets to price a 78% chance of a 25‑basis‑point RBA hike at the March...
Indonesia and Australia to Expand Security Cooperation to Include Japan, Papua New Guinea
Indonesia and Australia announced plans to broaden their security partnership by creating two trilateral arrangements, one with Japan and another with Papua New Guinea. The initiatives follow the recent Jakarta Treaty, which already deepens bilateral consultations and joint training, and...
Yen Hits New Low Against Singapore Dollar as Middle East Crisis Jolts Oil Prices
The Japanese yen slipped to a fresh low of 124.78 per Singapore dollar, driven by a sharp rise in oil prices linked to the escalating Middle East crisis. Oil breached the $100‑a‑barrel threshold, pushing Japan’s import bill higher and prompting...
Argentina's Inflation Accelerates in Feb
Argentina’s consumer price index jumped to a 33.1% annual rate in February, up from 32.4% in January. The rise marks a continuation of the post‑low inflation trend that began after a cyclical dip to 31.3% in October. Core sectors such...
Foreign Holdings of Thai Stocks Peak
Foreign investors' holdings in Thai equities surged to a record 6.11 trillion baht in January, representing 37.1% of total market capitalisation. Although they were net sellers of Thai stocks last year, they continued to buy non‑voting depository receipts, indicating sustained exposure....
Sanctioned Rubio to Take Part in Trump’s China Trip Despite Previous Missed Opportunities
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has been sanctioned by Beijing and previously rebuffed several invitations, is now slated to join President Donald Trump on a high‑profile visit to China later this month. The South China Morning Post reports...
Global Baku Forum Opens with Iran War Raging Across the Border
The Global Baku Forum opened under the shadow of the Iran war, with Azerbaijan pledging to increase gas supplies to the EU to offset Gulf disruptions. President Ilham Aliyev warned that rising oil prices—now above $100 a barrel—threaten consumers and...
Energy Under Attack: What the Gulf Can Learn From Ukraine and Iraq
Iranian forces struck Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG hub and a Saudi oil facility, underscoring that Gulf energy assets are now frontline targets. The attacks follow a pattern set by the 2019 Abqaiq strikes and highlight the vulnerability of export‑centric infrastructure. Iraq’s...
Firms Plan to Boost Supply-Chain Agility as Tariff Turmoil Persists
U.S. Supreme Court invalidated sweeping tariffs imposed under the 1977 IEEPA, reigniting policy uncertainty for import‑heavy firms. A KPMG survey finds that 40% of U.S. companies will increase spending on supply‑chain agility, while nearly half are already modeling tariff‑mitigation strategies...
How the New Gulf War Is Impacting Mongolia
The February 28 Gulf War between the United States‑Israel coalition and Iran has quickly rippled to Mongolia, prompting its foreign ministry to alert the 281 Mongolian nationals living in the Middle East and arrange emergency repatriation flights. By March 11, 91 citizens...
Dow Dives 739 Points as Oil Prices Spike: Stock Market Today
U.S. equities opened sharply lower on Thursday as oil prices surged after Iran’s new supreme leader announced the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed, pushing front‑month crude up 9.7% to $95.73 a barrel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.6%...
UK Government ‘Flying Blind’ with Poor Data in Charting Regional Growth
The House of Commons Science, Innovation and Technology Committee released a report warning that the UK government lacks reliable data to track regional innovation and growth. It highlights severe gaps in metrics for innovation clusters, spin‑outs, and R&D spending, especially...
Iran War Flips Brazil Diesel vs Biodiesel Prices
The outbreak of the Iran war has pushed global oil‑derivative prices higher, causing imported 10 ppm (S10) diesel in Brazil to trade above biodiesel for the first time since October 2023. On 6 March, S10 diesel at Paranaguá reached R5.173 /m³, surpassing the R4.656 /m³...
US and Allies Clash with Russia and China at UN Security Council over Iran
The United States, chairing the UN Security Council, pushed a vote to discuss the 1737 sanctions committee on Iran, winning 11‑2 despite opposition from Russia and China. U.S. envoy Mike Waltz accused Moscow and Beijing of shielding Tehran’s nuclear and...
Options Traders Are Pricing in ‘Disaster’ as Iran Conflict Intensifies. Here’s How Investors Might Profit.
Options traders are pricing in heightened risk as the Iran‑Israel conflict escalates, driving premiums on oil‑related contracts. CME Group’s CEO Terry Duffy warned that any U.S. attempt to directly intervene in oil futures could trigger a “biblical disaster,” potentially destabilizing...
US Says China Is Not Pricing Out American Battery Anode Makers ITC Votes Negative in Lithium Battery AD/CVD Investigation.
The U.S. International Trade Commission issued a final negative determination in its antidumping and countervailing duty investigation of active anode material (AAM) imports from China. The 2‑1 vote blocks the Department of Commerce from imposing tariffs on Chinese AAM, overturning...
Volatile Shipping Market Drags Down OOCL’s 2025 Financial Results
OOCL’s 2025 results were hit by a volatile shipping market, heightened trade tensions and new US tariffs. Revenue slipped 9.3% year‑over‑year to $9.7 billion, while EBIT and net profit plunged 42% and 41% respectively, each landing at $1.5 billion. Despite the earnings...
Gold Falls Sharply As Iran Vows To Fight Back Harder, Pushing Oil Prices Up Further
Gold prices dropped sharply on Thursday, with front‑month COMEX gold falling $49.8 (‑0.96%) to $5,129.30 per ounce. The decline coincided with crude oil jumping to $94.50 a barrel, up $7.25 (8.31%) as Iran intensified threats and the Strait of Hormuz...
With Active Security Selection, Airport Bonds Can Add Ballast as Geopolitics Rattle Markets
The airport municipal bond sector has demonstrated strong credit resilience, weathering crises such as 9/11, COVID‑19, and recent geopolitical turbulence. Federal relief via the CARES Act prevented mass downgrades, and General Aviation Revenue Bonds (GARBs) have maintained stable, investment‑grade ratings...
China’s High-Tech Narrative Cannot Solve Its Deflation Problem
Premier Li Qiang added the Consumer Price Index to the 2026 Government Work Report, formally acknowledging deflation for the first time. The annual GDP growth target was lowered to 4.5‑5 percent, the first sub‑5 percent goal since 1991. While a trade surplus...