Immediate Reopening of Strait of Hormuz Demanded at 40-Nation Talks
British Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper led a UK‑coordinated gathering of roughly 40 nations that called for the immediate, unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The meeting reiterated demand for freedom of navigation after the strait has been virtually shut since the US‑Israeli war against Iran began on 28 February, disrupting oil, LNG and fertilizer flows. While no concrete breakthrough emerged, the coalition’s statement underscored the strategic urgency of restoring the waterway. The closure has already pushed global energy prices sharply higher.
Fertilizer Traders Cash in on War Profits, Farmers Pay the Price
American fertilizer traders are re‑exporting over 100,000 short tons of phosphate fertilizer after the Iran war created a price gap between U.S. spot markets and overseas demand. Domestic prices linger around $700 per short ton while farmers cut back on...
Iran Drafts Protocol with Oman for Strait of Hormuz Traffic
Iran’s deputy foreign minister confirmed a draft protocol with Oman to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing safety rather than restrictions. The agreement, described as post‑war housekeeping, includes plans to levy tolls on transiting vessels. Tehran frames the...
Fed's Logan: I Wasn't Convinced Inflation Was Easing Enough Even Before the War Started
Dallas Fed President Logan said he remains unconvinced that inflation is easing sufficiently, even before the Ukraine war escalated. He highlighted the difficulty of forecasting amid geopolitical uncertainty, but noted that a swift war resolution could limit economic damage. Logan stressed...
Asian Buyers Remain Wary of Iran Oil Sanctions Waiver
The Trump administration issued a 30‑day waiver that temporarily allows Iranian crude to be sold at sea, aiming to ease global oil market pressure. Two weeks after the announcement, Asian buyers remain hesitant, citing heightened compliance and reputational risks. The...
Ortec Finance: Macro Hedging for US Pension Stability
Ortec Finance released a whitepaper titled “From Volatility to Stability,” highlighting how declining interest rates expose U.S. pension funds to balance‑sheet risk. The paper uses a stylised case study to show that strategic interest‑rate hedging can materially reduce downside risk....
US Crude Tops US$110, Wall Street Falls After Trump Vows More Iran Attacks
U.S. crude oil spiked to $111.92 a barrel, up nearly 12% after President Trump pledged continued strikes on Iran for the next two to three weeks. The aggressive rhetoric sent the S&P 500 down 1.1%, the Dow off 1.2% and the...
CCIL Imposes Volatility Margin on Dollar-Rupee Forwards Amid Market Swings
The Clearing Corporation of India (CCIL) has imposed a 20 % volatility margin on dollar‑rupee forward contracts, effective immediately. The move follows sharp market swings after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) tightened arbitrage restrictions, pushing the 1‑year implied USD‑INR yield...
Trump Is Preparing 100% Tariffs on some Drugmakers, Documents Show
President Donald Trump is preparing to announce 100% tariffs on select pharmaceutical products, according to a draft memo obtained by Endpoints News. The tariffs would apply to a limited group of drugmakers, targeting high‑priced brand‑name drugs rather than the entire...
The Macro Implications of Chipflation
AI‑driven data‑center expansion and heightened defense spending have pushed semiconductor prices sharply higher, with DRAM costs rising roughly 17‑fold over the past year. This demand surge is concentrated in developed Asian economies—Japan, South Korea and Taiwan—where advanced chip production fuels a...
What the Iran War Could Mean for Stocks, Bonds and Growth
The ongoing Iran‑Gulf conflict is already weighing on global markets, with oil supply disruptions driving higher energy prices. Investor sentiment swings between brief equity rallies sparked by President Trump’s optimistic remarks and swift pullbacks as fighting persists. Analysts warn that...
US Trade Deficit Widens in February As Imports Offset Record Exports
The U.S. trade deficit widened 4.9% in February, reaching $57.3 billion as a 4.3% jump in imports offset a record‑high $314.8 billion export total. Imports were buoyed by AI‑related capital equipment, while goods exports surged 5.9% to an all‑time high. The goods...
India Approaches Fertilizer Producers as Iran War Curbs Supplies
India is actively courting major nitrogen and phosphatic fertilizer producers to secure direct imports as the Iran‑related conflict disrupts traditional supply routes. Officials have opened talks with Russia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Algeria and Egypt, while also seeking urea from China....
Total Nonfarm Payrolls for March 2026 Are Projected to Rise By 60,000
The median forecast for March 2026 non‑farm payrolls predicts a gain of 60,000 jobs, a sharp rebound after February’s 92,000‑job decline. This estimate far exceeds the 12‑month average increase of 13,000, indicating a potential turnaround in hiring momentum. Unemployment is expected...
Australia Turns to Less-Established Urea Origins
Australia’s urea importers are scrambling for new sources after the Strait of Hormuz closure halted the Gulf region, which normally supplies about two‑thirds of the country’s fertilizer needs. Importers have turned to Egypt and Nigeria, but both face Australian Quarantine...
Singapore Bunker Supply Continues to Run Down as Middle East War Drags On
Singapore, the world’s largest bunkering hub, sold 56.2 million metric tons of bunker fuel in 2025, a 3.2% increase year‑over‑year. Over half of its fuel imports travel through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed since the Middle East...
IMF Says US Fed Has Little Scope for Rate Cuts This Year
The International Monetary Fund’s latest Article IV review finds U.S. inflation on track to meet the Federal Reserve’s 2 % target in early 2027, but signals minimal room for rate cuts this year. IMF staff project only a single policy rate reduction...
The UK Is Falling Behind the G7, but Change Is Possible
The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) warns that the United Kingdom is falling behind its G7 peers in business investment and manufacturing intensity. Private sector investment totals just 11.1% of GDP, the second‑lowest among the group, while capital intensity...
One Year on From Trump's 'Liberation Day,' Global Investors Are Rethinking American Exceptionalism
One year after President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs—34% on China, 20% on the EU and 46% on Vietnam—global markets have re‑evaluated exposure to the United States. The tariffs sparked a sharp sell‑off in U.S. equities, Treasuries and the dollar,...
ARA Crop-Based Fame Cheaper than Diesel for First Time
For the first time, European crop‑based biodiesel (FAME) traded below ICE gasoil, with the benchmark Fame 0 discounting diesel by $25‑78 per tonne in early April. The price gap stems from Middle‑East supply shocks that have pushed diesel to multi‑year highs....
Hormuz Disruption Roils African Oil Markets, Economies
A prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz is set to severely disrupt oil flows to and from sub‑Saharan Africa, threatening export revenues and import costs across the region. The bottleneck pushes global freight rates higher and forces African refiners...
The Conflict Is Disrupting More than Just Energy Flows, What Do Investors Need to Watch For?
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is choking the flow of more than 20% of global oil, 25% of LNG and a suite of critical industrial inputs such as phosphate fertilizer, sulfur and urea. These constraints are creating a...
How Long Can the Bank of Canada Look Through a US$100 Oil Shock?
BMO projects Canadian inflation edging just above 3% in April as oil prices breach $100 per barrel, yet the Bank of Canada keeps its policy rate steady at 2.25%. The governing council said it will "look through" the temporary energy...
USMEF Celebrates Renewed Beef Access to Australian Market
US exports were banned after the discovery of BSE in 2003.
How Trump’s War in Iran Is Scrambling Pharma’s Shipping Options
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have tightened the Strait of Hormuz blockade, cutting off a key east‑west artery that handles roughly 10% of global pharmaceutical shipments. Temperature‑controlled ingredients, which make up about 20% of those flows, are especially vulnerable,...
How Liberation Day Has Really Changed Retail And Prices One Year On
The April 2025 "Liberation Day" tariffs introduced sweeping duties on multiple trading partners, prompting a fragmented trade regime. One year later, retail inflation has risen modestly while retailers have absorbed most of the cost, leading to margin compression especially in...
Supply Chain Disruption Drives Competition Between Ambitious South Asian Ports
Supply chain disruptions are spurring fierce competition among South Asian ports, with Sri Lanka's Hambantota International Port (HIP) accelerating its container‑handling capabilities. China Merchants Port Holdings is committing $108 million to add six quay cranes, 16 RTGs and 40 trailers, aiming...
The US-Israel War on Iran Is Accelerating De-Dollarization and America’s Decline | Ahmed Moor
The United States and Israel are spending roughly $12 billion each week on the war against Iran, a conflict that is reshaping global finance. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has forced about 100 vessels to pay a $2 million toll...
We Tracked Every Trump Tariff Change for a Year. Here’s What We Found.
On April 2, 2025 President Trump instituted sweeping reciprocal tariffs, branding them as a catalyst for an investment surge, higher federal revenue, debt reduction, and lower consumer prices. A year later, analysts Kyle Hulehan and Erica York examined customs data,...
China Says US, Israeli Attacks on Iran the ‘Root Cause’ of Hormuz Strait Blockage
China’s foreign ministry said US and Israeli strikes on Iran caused the Strait of Hormuz blockage. The closure has pushed Brent crude to about $100 a barrel, spiking global oil prices by 40‑50%. Chinese airlines announced fuel surcharges, while President...
Telling the Truth About China’s Success
Yanis Varoufakis warns that the flare‑up in the Persian Gulf heightens the risk of a broader US‑China confrontation, making de‑escalation the top global priority. He argues that a pervasive myth—that China has cheated its way to prosperity—fuels mistrust and makes...
Fuel Prices Are Soaring. Plastic Could Be Next.
The ongoing Iran‑related conflict has closed the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude oil above $100 per barrel and gasoline past $4 a gallon in the United States. The spike is reverberating through petrochemical feedstocks, especially naphtha, where Asian prices have...
Oil Hikes 7% After Trump Says US-Israel Will Keep Striking Iran
Oil prices surged nearly 7% on Thursday after President Donald Trump warned that the United States and Israel would continue striking Iran, reigniting concerns over supply disruptions. Brent crude rose to $108.81 a barrel and U.S. WTI to $107.18, marking...
A Year On: Four Ways Trump's Tariffs Have Changed the Global Economy
One year after President Donald Trump launched his trade‑war, the average U.S. tariff rate climbed to roughly 10%, up from 2.5% in early 2024. The higher duties slashed U.S. imports from China by about 30% and cut shipments to China...
Iran War Trade Roils Markets as Trump Narrates the Conflict
U.S. equity markets rallied this week, with the S&P 500 up about 2.1% and 10‑year Treasury yields falling 0.4%, as investors briefly hoped for a swift end to the U.S.–Iran war. President Donald Trump’s aggressive comments, however, reignited volatility, pushing crude...
UK Offers Madagascar Near Tariff-Free Access to £3tn Market to Boost Supply Chain
The United Kingdom has announced a new trade framework that gives Madagascar near‑total, 99% tariff‑free access to its market. The scheme combines the Developing Countries Trading Scheme with the UK‑Eastern and Southern Africa Economic Partnership Agreement, simplifying rules of origin...
BoE’s Bailey Warns Private Credit Risks Could Echo 2008 Crisis
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that recent failures in the private‑credit sector could foreshadow broader systemic risks similar to the 2008 crisis. He cited the collapses of Market Financial Solutions, First Brands and Tricolor as signs of market...
Trump’s Threat to Hit Iran 'Extremely Hard' Jolts Global Stocks, Bonds and Oil
President Donald Trump warned the United States would hit Iran "extremely hard" over the next two to three weeks, prompting a sharp sell‑off across global markets. Asian equities reversed gains, with South Korea's KOSPI plunging 5.5% and European indices falling...
Event Voice: How the Middle East Crisis Has Changed the Outlook for Bonds
The recent Middle East conflict has reignited energy price spikes, sending UK gilt yields sharply higher as investors price in additional Bank of England hikes. Unlike the 2022 inflation surge, current inflation is moderating and central banks enjoy greater credibility,...
Strait of Hormuz: How Are Beverage Commodities Under Pressure?
More than 30 nations will meet virtually on April 2 to address the escalating Strait of Hormuz crisis, a chokepoint that moves the bulk of the world’s oil and a growing share of beverage commodities. The blockage is already hitting tea,...
Canada's Labour Market Is 'Static' After a Year of U.S. Tariffs, Population Shift
One year after the United States imposed the “Liberation Day” tariffs, Canada’s labour market has become essentially static. Manufacturing, hit directly by duties on steel, aluminum and autos, shed 51,800 jobs, while the broader goods‑producing sector lost 34,200 positions. Service...
‘China Shock 2.0’ Is a False Narrative Born of Western Anxiety: Chinese Media
Chinese state‑run Economic Daily published front‑page editorials denying the existence of a so‑called “China shock 2.0.” The outlet argues that China’s export engine remains strong and that the real threat to the global economy is rising protectionism, not a slowdown in...
Rice Imports Seen to Rise 15.9%, as Output Grows 0.4% – USDA
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service projects Philippines rice production to rise modestly 0.4% to 19.68 million metric tons in marketing year 2026‑27. Despite this slight gain, imports are expected to jump 15.9% to 5.10 MMT as the country lifts a four‑month import...
Swiss Inflation Hits One-Year High as Fuel Prices Rise
Swiss inflation rose to 0.3% in March, the highest level in a year, driven primarily by a 5.3% jump in petroleum product prices amid Middle‑East tensions. The increase was modest, falling short of the 0.5% forecast and the 0.2% month‑on‑month...
Iran Conflict Highlights Vietnam’s Energy Security and Foreign Policy Vulnerabilities
The Iran‑Israel war has shut the Strait of Hormuz, driving global oil and LNG prices to record highs and exposing Vietnam’s reliance on imported fuels. Since February, gasoline prices have jumped 50% and diesel 70%, prompting fuel shortages and longer...
India’s Central Bank Makes It Harder to Short the Rupee
India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), has tightened regulations on shorting the rupee. Effective immediately, the RBI increased margin requirements for rupee futures and introduced stricter reporting thresholds for large short positions. The move targets speculative bets...
The Invisible Oil Fuelling Myanmar’s Genocide
The Andaman Sea has turned into a hidden corridor where traffickers deliberately switch off AIS transponders, creating ghost ships that move Rohingya refugees and sanctioned Jet A‑1 fuel. Refugees are packed into cramped fish holds, forced to endure dangerous voyages without...
Govt Removes Import Duty on 41 Items Effective Today - Check Full List of Items Here
The Indian government announced a full customs‑duty exemption on 41 petrochemical inputs, including anhydrous ammonia, methanol, and key polymers, effective until 30 June. The move is a temporary relief aimed at stabilising supplies for plastics, pharmaceuticals, automotive and textile manufacturers amid...
East Africa Crowds Out Businesses as Debt Costs Bite
East African economies are slipping toward a debt trap as governments replace concessional aid with costly commercial loans and Eurobonds, pushing debt‑service costs to record levels. In Kenya, roughly 68% of revenue now funds debt repayments, crowding out credit for...
Silver Crashes Rs 14,000/Kg, Gold Dips Rs 2,600/10 Grams as Trump's Plan to Hit Iran ‘Very Hard’ Reignites Inflation Fears....
U.S. President Donald Trump’s televised warning of a “hard” strike on Iran sent shockwaves through commodity markets, prompting sharp drops in precious metals on India’s MCX exchange. Silver futures for May 2026 fell 5.5% to Rs 2.29 lakh per kilogram (≈ $2,770 per ounce),...