Earnings Season Kicks Off with War, AI Threat Among Key Worries
The MSCI World and S&P 500 indices posted their steepest quarterly decline since 2022 as March inflation surged and the Iran‑U.S. conflict pushed crude to about $95 a barrel, a 40% jump. Analysts now expect S&P 500 first‑quarter earnings to grow only 12% year‑over‑year, the weakest outlook since Q2 2025, while the tech sector grapples with AI‑related disruption fears. Energy stocks are the sole S&P 500 gainers, but higher fuel costs are weighing on industrials, retailers and heavy‑machinery makers facing lingering tariff exposure. Investors will watch corporate guidance for clues on consumer resilience, oil‑driven profit swings and the evolving AI risk landscape.
Trump Says He’s Closing the Strait of Hormuz. Has He Been Reading MarketWatch?
President Donald Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could trigger a sharp rise in global oil prices and create an energy‑price shock. The decision aligns with earlier MarketWatch analysis suggesting the president may be...
Gold Tumbles as US Blockade of Hormuz Raises Inflationary Risks
Gold prices plunged 2.2% on Monday, slipping below $4,650 an ounce after the United States announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The move triggered a sharp rise in oil and natural‑gas prices, pushing the Bloomberg Dollar Spot...
Taipei Wary of New Beijing ‘Incentives’
Taiwan’s presidential office warned that China’s newly announced ten incentive measures—ranging from resumed travel and direct flights to infrastructure links and market access—are likely a repeat of past economic coercion tactics. The measures were unveiled after President Xi Jinping met...
Armenia Looking for Additional Partners for TRIPP Implementation
Armenia is expanding the investor pool for the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a 42‑kilometre land bridge linking Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenia’s Syunik province. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan say...
Be Cautious of China ‘Incentive’: Expert
China announced ten new "incentive" measures for Taiwan, covering agricultural product sales, investment opportunities and the resumption of travel. Experts warn the package is tied to political conditions such as the "1992 consensus" and could be used to pressure Taiwan’s...
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Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER): Definition, Formula, and Importance
The real effective exchange rate (REER) is an inflation‑adjusted index that gauges a country’s currency strength against a weighted basket of its major trading partners’ currencies. It is calculated by averaging bilateral exchange rates, applying trade‑share weights, and adjusting for...
Chinese Carmakers Squeeze Out Asian Rivals in Europe as Exports Top 1 Million Units
Chinese car imports into the EU surged 30.7% in 2025, topping one million units for the first time. The import value rose only 4% to €13.7 billion (≈$16.1 billion), indicating a dominance of low‑priced models, especially EVs and hybrids. Chinese brands captured...
The West’s Ukraine Sanctions Strategy Has Lost Its Way
Western allies initially prepared a sweeping maritime ban on Russian crude, aiming to choke the Kremlin’s oil revenues. The sudden escalation of the Israel‑Iran conflict pushed Brent crude from $65 to roughly $100 per barrel, reviving global energy concerns and...
Why Global Imbalances Matter Again – and What to Do About Them
Global current‑account imbalances have widened sharply since 2018, reaching their highest levels since 2012, with the United States running a deficit of roughly 3.5‑4% of GDP and surplus economies such as China, Europe, Japan and oil exporters expanding their external...
Supply Chain Problems Require Supply Chain Solutions
The conflict entering its 45th day has turned a short‑term shock into a structural supply‑chain crisis, with the Strait of Hormuz disrupting oil flows and triggering cascading effects across ASEAN. Delayed shipments, higher costs and material shortages are already reshaping...
Oil Prices Rise After the US Says It Would Block Iranian Ports
The United States announced a blockade of Iranian ports starting Monday, sending U.S. crude up 8% to $104.24 per barrel and Brent 7% to $102.29. The move follows Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20%...
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GROWTH NARRATIVE OP-ED: SA’s Economy — Are We Turning the Corner, or Entering a Cul-De-Sac?
South Africa’s economy is caught between two narratives: a "turning‑the‑corner" view that points to modest growth gains, electricity and transport reforms, a sovereign‑rating upgrade and removal from the FATF grey list, and a skeptical view that stresses persistently low growth,...
Stock-Market Futures Drop, Oil Surges Above $100 After Failed Talks Betwe...
U.S. and Iran failed to reach an agreement over the Strait of Hormuz, prompting President Donald Trump to threaten a naval blockade. Oil prices rebounded above $100 per barrel as the geopolitical risk premium widened. Futures on the Dow, S&P 500...
Stocks and Bonds Fall With Brent Back Above $100: Markets Wrap
President Donald Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after US‑Iran peace talks stalled, sending oil prices soaring. Brent crude jumped 6.8% to just above $102 a barrel, the first time since early 2025. The rally in...
Lebanon PM Says Working to Get Israeli Troop Withdrawal
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced intensified diplomatic efforts to force an Israeli withdrawal from all Lebanese territory, ahead of a planned trilateral meeting in Washington. The Lebanese Red Cross confirmed that a paramedic was killed by an Israeli drone...
GEOPOLITICS RESHAPES GLOBAL TOURISM LANDSCAPE
In 2025, UN Tourism reported more than 1.5 billion international trips, outpacing pre‑pandemic levels despite heightened geopolitical tensions. Travelers are gravitating toward destinations perceived as stable and well‑connected, reshaping traditional tourism corridors. Gulf hubs such as Dubai and Doha still attracted...
Live: Markets on Edge, Oil Set to Rise on US Gulf Blockade Threats
Wall Street’s brief relief rally stalled on Friday as US‑Iran peace talks collapsed, leaving the S&P 500 down 0.1%, the Dow down 0.6% and the Nasdaq up 0.4%. European markets outperformed, with the Eurostoxx 600 gaining 0.4% and Japan’s index rising over...
How the Iran War Is Disrupting Gulf Economies: 5 Key Effects
The Iran‑U.S./Israel war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting global oil flows by roughly 8 million barrels per day and driving war‑risk insurance premiums up to 1,000 %. Gulf Cooperation Council economies are confronting steep GDP declines—up to 14 % in...
ASX on Shaky Ground After Failed Iran Talks; Oil Jumps, A$ Falls
The Australian stock market reacted to the collapse of US‑Iran peace talks, with ASX futures edging up 0.8% and hinting at a breach of the 9,000‑point barrier. Brent crude surged roughly 8% as President Trump threatened a naval blockade of...
Factory Fever: Australia’s Bipartisan Turn to Protectionism Comes at a Cost
Australia’s Labor government and the Liberal opposition are jointly embracing protectionist policies to revive domestic manufacturing. The plan includes billions of interest‑free loans for local producers and sizable subsidies for multinationals such as Glencore and Rio Tinto to sustain metal‑refinery...
Saudi Arabia Gets More Oil Flowing as US Blocks Strait of Hormuz. What You Need to Know About Iran Today
US President Donald Trump announced a unilateral blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Iran refused nuclear assurances in talks held in Islamabad. The move comes as Saudi Arabia’s East‑West pipeline, damaged earlier by an Iranian strike, has returned to...
Wary Investors Eye Another Escalation in Iran War
The collapse of US‑Iran peace talks prompted President Donald Trump to announce a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that moves roughly 20% of global oil and LNG. The rhetoric sparked a sharp sell‑off in crude, with...
Trump Humiliated as Key U.S. Ally Bails on His New War Plan
President Donald Trump announced a unilateral blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, demanding NATO allies help reopen the vital waterway after Iran mined it. The United Kingdom publicly refused to commit naval or aerial assets, contradicting Trump’s claim that allies...
Ahead of Russian Gas Ban, Europe Buys Almost All Cargoes From Yamal LNG
Europe bought 97 percent of Yamal LNG cargoes in Q1 2026, receiving 69 of 71 shipments, amounting to 5.07 million tons and $3.33 billion in payments. The bloc’s dependence on Russian gas has surged, with over $230 billion spent on Russian oil and gas imports...
Five Emerging Themes for the Indo-Pacific From Trump’s Iran War
The Trump‑led war on Iran is reshaping strategic calculations across the Indo‑Pacific. Analysts identify five emerging themes: heightened nuclear proliferation risk, doubts about the reliability of U.S. deterrence, urgent need for missile‑and‑drone defenses, a push for diversified energy and critical‑mineral...
Prolonged War May Hit Rs 75,000 Crore Dividend Target
A prolonged war in West Asia is keeping global commodity prices high, threatening India's fiscal plan to collect a ₹75,000 crore ($9 bn) dividend from central public sector enterprises (CPSEs) this year. State‑run petroleum companies, which supplied a third of the ₹78,438 crore...
Net FDI Inflows Dip, Investors Opting for Mexico, Vietnam
India’s net foreign direct investment turned negative in January 2026, reaching –$1.39 billion as gross inflows fell 6.9% year‑on‑year to about $5.7 billion. Outbound repatriation surged to $4.9 billion, nearly doubling the previous month’s level. Analysts say investors are gravitating toward Mexico, Vietnam...
A Ceasefire Is Good. But Trump’s Impact on Rates Is Just Starting
The Iranian‑U.S. conflict has disrupted oil flows, keeping crude prices above pre‑war levels for months. Higher fuel costs are feeding a second‑round inflation surge that could push Australian CPI past 5 %, well outside the Reserve Bank’s target. The RBA, already...
China Says It Will Resume some Ties with Taiwan Following Visit by Opposition Leader
China announced it will restore certain cross‑strait ties with Taiwan after Kuomintang leader Cheng Li‑wun met President Xi Jinping in Beijing. The measures include resuming direct flights, lifting bans on Taiwanese aquaculture products, and exploring a communication channel between the Communist Party...
Trump Pitches Iran Blockade as Boon to U.S. Oil
President Trump used the Iran‑related Strait of Hormuz blockade as a sales pitch, urging nations—especially China—to buy more U.S. oil. He claimed empty tankers were heading to American ports, but the United States exports only about 3.5‑4.5 million barrels of crude...
Chinese Rare Earth Producer Hikes Q2 Price by 44%
China Northern Rare Earth Group announced a Q2 2026 concentrate price of 38,804 yuan ($5,390) per tonne, a 44.6% jump from the first quarter and more than double the level a year earlier. The price is tied to a formula that...
The Islamabad Collapse: What the US-Iran Negotiation Failure Means for Gulf Stability and Global Supply Chains
Negotiations between the United States and Iran in Islamabad collapsed, leaving the Strait of Hormuz effectively sealed by both sides. Tehran refused to abandon its nuclear enrichment program and to relinquish control of the waterway, while Washington demanded total dismantlement...
Colombia’s Energy Crisis Deepens as Oil Output Falls and Imports Rise
Colombia’s oil production slipped to 734,924 barrels per day in February, a 2.7% year‑over‑year decline and the lowest level since July 2021. Natural‑gas output also fell, pushing imports to roughly 20% of total consumption, up from under 4% a year earlier....
Deep-Sea Mining Heats up as New Player Challenges Early Mover Advantage
Deep Sea Minerals (CNSX: SEAS), a rebranded Canadian firm, closed an oversubscribed $4.22 million private placement and has applied for a U.S. deep‑seabed exploration license in the Clarion‑Clipperton Zone and the Cook Islands EEZ. The company plans an asset‑light approach, contracting...
Op-Ed: How Gold Became National Security Infrastructure
In April 2026 the Banque de France moved its entire sovereign gold holdings back to French soil, swapping 129 tonnes of legacy bars for compliant bullion and realizing a €12.8 billion (≈ $13.8 billion) gain. France joins Germany, India and other nations in an...
An Iran War Winner: China’s Green Industrial Complex
China's renewable energy exporters are seeing a surge in demand as the Iran war disrupts Middle East oil and gas supplies. Nations across the region are turning to Chinese-made solar panels and wind turbines to secure power stability. The conflict...
Iran Crisis Puts China's UN Diplomacy to the Test
China and Russia vetoed a watered‑down UN Security Council resolution aimed at deterring further closures of the Strait of Hormuz. Beijing argued the draft lacked balance, fearing it could legitimize unauthorized military action and provide a pretext for regime‑change operations....
America’s Next Fed Chair Is Caught in a Vice
The Federal Reserve’s upcoming chair transition is unfolding under intense political pressure from President Donald Trump, who routinely attacks current Chair Jerome Powell on social media. Powell also faces a DOJ inquiry into the Fed’s headquarters renovation contract, adding a...
Trump Announces Blockade of Strait of Hormuz as Vance Leaves Pakistan Talks with No Deal. How Financial Markets Are Reacting.
President Donald Trump announced an immediate U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to pressure Iran. The move sparked a sharp rise in crude oil prices while equity and cryptocurrency markets fell, with S&P 500 futures and Bitcoin both...
Oil Futures up 7% on Hyperliquid as Trump Orders Naval Blockade of Hormuz
Oil futures surged on the decentralized Hyperliquid exchange after President Donald Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global petroleum shipments. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contracts jumped 7% to $96.40, while Brent rose...
Seven Million Barrels a Day Still Isn’t Enough: Why Saudi Arabia’s Pipeline Fix Won’t Solve the Hormuz Crisis
Saudi Arabia announced that its East‑West pipeline is back to full capacity of roughly seven million barrels per day, and the Manifa field has resumed its 300,000‑barrel‑per‑day output, while the Khurais field remains under repair. The pipeline, which routes crude...
BBC: Trump Says US to ‘Blockade’ Strait of Hormuz After Talks Failed over Iran’s ‘Nuclear Ambitions’
Former President Donald Trump announced that the United States will impose a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after diplomatic talks with Iran collapsed over its nuclear program. The statement came amid an escalating US‑Israel‑Iran conflict that has already...
Australia PM Albanese to Visit Brunei, Malaysia to Shore up Fuel Supply
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will travel to Brunei and Malaysia from April 14‑17 to reinforce fuel‑supply ties after the Iran‑driven blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global oil flows. Australia imports roughly 80% of its energy, and recent...
Govt Insists on Growth Target as World Bank Lowers Forecast
Indonesia’s government reaffirms a 5.4% GDP growth target for 2026, insisting it will meet or exceed the budgeted figure despite external headwinds. Economy Minister Airlangga Hartarto warned that the outcome hinges on geopolitical stability, particularly the ongoing United States‑Israel conflict...
How Markets Are Balancing Between External Shocks And Internal Risks
TD Asset Management’s Benjamin Gossack warned that markets are juggling external shocks—especially soaring oil prices—and internal risks such as a potential credit crunch. Investors responded by buying record volumes of equity put contracts, cushioning equity losses amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty....
A Fragile Truce
U.S. equities surged again, with the S&P 500 up 3.5% after a 3% gain last week, as a tentative cease‑fire between the U.S. and Iran eased Middle‑East tensions. The de‑escalation cooled oil markets, pulling prices from four‑year highs and alleviating fears...
Oil Tankers U-Turn In Hormuz As US-Iran Talks Break Down
Two empty crude tankers and an Aframax‑class vessel attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday but made last‑minute U‑turns near Iran's Larak and Qeshm islands. The VLCC Mombasa B succeeded in navigating the Iran‑approved corridor, while Agios Fanourios I...
Why Inflation Is the Economic Problem of the Decade
Inflation has re‑accelerated, highlighted by a 21.2% jump in gasoline prices in March—the largest monthly surge since the 1960s. The overall CPI rose 3.3% year‑over‑year, its highest level in almost two years, while a Fed‑preferred inflation gauge showed a 4.1%...
Here’s A List Of Gulf Energy Infrastructure Damaged In Iran War
Missile and drone strikes have damaged dozens of oil refineries, gas processing plants, pipelines and ports across the Gulf since the Iran‑Israel conflict erupted six weeks ago. Key facilities such as Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery (550,000 bbl/day), the East‑West pipeline, and...