Pre-Markets Down as U.S. Sets Blockade at Hormuz
U.S. forces announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices sharply higher and casting a geopolitical shadow over the opening bell. WTI crude rose to $104 a barrel and Brent to $102, while major equity indexes opened lower despite a modest Dow gain. Goldman Sachs beat Q1 earnings expectations with $17.55 earnings per share, yet its stock slipped 4% in pre‑market trading. The week also features a packed earnings calendar and key economic data releases that could steer market direction.
India Rises as China Slows in Mineral Demand Shift
Vale is accelerating iron ore shipments to India as the country’s steel production is projected to double by 2030, signaling a pivot away from China’s once‑dominant demand base. Chinese steel output has plateaued around 1 billion tonnes, while India’s broader industrial...
Berne Financial Services Agreement: What the UK-Swiss Deal Means in Practice
The Berne Financial Services Agreement (BFSA) took effect on 1 January 2026, creating a mutual‑recognition framework between the UK’s FCA and Switzerland’s FINMA. Under the pact, firms regulated in one jurisdiction can operate in the other without seeking additional licences, covering banking,...
Japan Is America’s Indispensable Ally
Japan continues to cement its role as the United States’ most reliable ally, even as President Donald Trump’s rhetoric remains volatile. Tokyo has turned trade tensions into leverage, securing reciprocal concessions on automobiles and agriculture while launching an investment strategy...
The U.S. Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz Begins
On April 13, the United States launched a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, deploying more than 15 warships to enforce a cordon around Iranian ports and coastal waters. The operation, coordinated by U.S. Central Command, applies only to...
Inside the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings as Leaders Grapple with War and Supply Shocks
The IMF and World Bank opened their 2026 Spring Meetings in Washington under the shadow of the Iran‑Israel war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which have spiked oil by more than 20% and European gas by over...
Poland’s External Current Account Deteriorated in February Amid Rising Flows From China
Poland's external current account turned from a €1.05 billion surplus in January to a €990 million deficit in February, roughly $1.07 billion. The deficit was driven by a €1.025 billion goods trade shortfall, offset by a robust €3.029 billion services surplus (about $3.27 billion). Imports surged...
Event – Towards Greater Coherence Between Fiscal and Monetary Policy
On April 13, 2026, the Centre for Economic Policy Research hosted a high‑level event titled “Towards Greater Coherence Between Fiscal and Monetary Policy.” Leading economists, central bankers, and finance ministers discussed the growing need for coordinated policy frameworks amid persistent...
Dependence Without Trust: The Drivers of Pakistan-UAE Divergence
Pakistan’s relationship with the United Arab Emirates has unraveled despite a decade‑long flow of Emirati financial lifelines. The UAE deposited more than $8 billion in Pakistan’s central bank between 2018 and 2026, yet strategic mistrust grew as Islamabad deepened its defence...
Zambia Secures Strategic Partnership in Jiangsu to Boost Chinese Investment
The Zambia Development Agency (ZDA) has signed a strategic partnership with the Jiangsu Industrial Cooperation Association, gaining free office space and staffing support for a new representative office in Nanjing. The deal taps into Jiangsu’s network of over 5,000 enterprises,...
T Rowe Price: How Investors Can Capitalise on China’s Next Expansion
T Rowe Price argues that despite recent sell‑offs in large‑cap Chinese tech stocks, the medium‑ to long‑term investment case for China remains intact. The firm highlights a projected 5% annual GDP growth by 2025, renewed policy support for infrastructure, and consumer demand...
Don’t Mention the Climate: Trump Creates ‘Beyond Absurd’ Situation at Global Finance Talks
At the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, the United States, led by President Donald Trump, is pressuring the institutions to mute climate‑change language despite an ongoing oil crisis. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has urged the World Bank...
Real GDP Growth by State: Fourth Quarter 2025
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released real GDP data for all 50 states, annualized for the fourth quarter of 2025. The mean annualized growth was 1.8 percent, with the median state, New Jersey, matching that figure. South Carolina posted the fastest growth...
Strait of Hormuz Shipping Decline Deepens as U.S. Blockade Adds Pressure to Global Supply Chains
The United States will enforce a naval blockade of Iranian ports, formalizing a trend that began in late February when vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sharply declined. Daily transits have dropped from roughly 120‑135 ships to about 40,...
Morning Reads
U.S. fertility has slipped to a historic low of 53 births per 1,000 women, yielding only about 3.6 million babies in 2025. The rate is roughly 20% lower than it was twenty years ago, and half of American women now reach...
With Orban Gone, China Has Lost Its Best Friend in the EU
Viktor Orban’s defeat in Hungary’s election removes the EU’s most vocal pro‑Beijing ally. Under Orban, Budapest routinely blocked EU statements on human‑rights abuses, Hong Kong and Taiwan, turning political support into China’s primary leverage in Europe. The incoming prime minister, Peter Magyar, has...
Tokayev, Iran, and the Erosion of Kazakhstan’s Multi-Vector Diplomacy
Kazakhstan’s long‑standing multi‑vector foreign policy is being tested by the 2026 Iran conflict. President Tokayev offered strong diplomatic support to Gulf monarchies while keeping a cautious tone toward Iran, revealing selective alignment. The asymmetry signals a tilt toward U.S.-backed initiatives...
War in Iran: Fertilizer Sector Warns of Lasting Supply Risk
A two‑week U.S.–Iran ceasefire will temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for roughly 30% of global fertilizer trade and 20% of natural‑gas flows. The closure has already forced several Gulf fertilizer plants offline, tightening worldwide supply and...
Univ of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Drops to All-Time Low on War Worries
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 47.6 in early April, an all‑time low and a 10.7‑point drop from March, far below analysts’ forecast of 52. The decline reflects heightened anxiety over the Iran conflict and rising energy...
Trump Threatens Hormuz Blockade as FMC Eyes Probe Into Carrier Surcharges
Donald Trump announced a potential naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, heightening geopolitical risk for Gulf shipping. The U.S. Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) responded by warning shippers it is monitoring carrier war‑risk surcharges and may launch a probe for...
Customs Sets up Refund Process for Trump’s Unlawful Global Tariffs
U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced that on April 20 2026 it will roll out the first phase of its Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) tool within the ACE Portal to handle refunds of the global tariffs imposed by former...
Rising Price Risks Boost Case for Bond Ladder ETFs
Rising inflation risk, highlighted by February's CPI showing a 0.3% monthly and 2.4% annual increase, is prompting investors to seek more resilient income strategies. Bond ladder exchange‑traded funds, especially those that distribute principal, are positioned as a hedge against sticky...
FAO: Protracted Strait of Hormuz Crisis Could Turn Into Global Agrifood Catastrophe
The FAO warned that a prolonged crisis in the Strait of Hormuz could halt shipments of essential agricultural inputs, sparking a surge in food‑price inflation comparable to the COVID‑19 shock. About 20‑45% of global fertilizer and energy imports travel through...
From Indaba to the Budget: Will Fiscal Policy Unlock Mining-Led Growth?
South Africa’s mining sector, responsible for roughly 6% of GDP and about R440 billion ($23 billion) in annual output, is hampered by chronic freight bottlenecks. At the February Mining Indaba, industry leaders called for policy certainty and reliable logistics, prompting Finance Minister...
Dueling Hormuz Blockades Push World to the Brink
US President Donald Trump announced a US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz effective April 13, targeting vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports. Iran has responded with a de‑facto toll‑booth regime, charging up to $2 million per ship and laying mines...
Full Interview: Roubini on Iran War, Oil Shock, AI Boom
In a Bloomberg interview, economist Nouriel Roubini warned that the Iran‑Israel conflict could spiral into a full‑scale escalation, pushing oil prices to $150‑$200 a barrel and reviving 1970s‑style stagflation. He contrasted this with a de‑escalation scenario that would likely keep...
Iran Conflict: The 5 Biggest Pressure Points for Food and Beverage
Weekend peace talks between the United States and Iran ended without an agreement, sending oil prices above $100 per barrel and prompting a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. The spike in oil costs is inflating freight rates for ocean‑borne cargoes...
EU Businesses Warn China’s New Supply Chain Law Puts Firms on Collision Course with Bloc’s Rules
A EU business lobby, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, has condemned China’s new Regulation 834, which took effect last week. The law gives Chinese authorities sweeping powers to investigate and punish companies or individuals deemed to threaten industrial...
India's Retail Inflation Rises to 3.4% in March
India’s retail consumer price index rose to 3.4% in March, up from 3.21% in February, aligning with the consensus forecast of 16 economists. The increase was driven by higher food prices, which jumped to 3.87%, and a surge in energy...
Asian LNG Imports Plummet to Six-Year Low on Middle East Crisis
Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports have slumped to the lowest level since June 2020, with the 30‑day moving average falling below 600,000 tons. The decline follows the escalation of the Middle East conflict, which has cut roughly 20% of global LNG...
Pakistan Launches Iran Transit Corridor with First Shipment to Central Asia
Pakistan has inaugurated an overland trade corridor through Iran, dispatching its first export—a refrigerated truckload of frozen meat—from Karachi to Tashkent. The road link offers a shorter, faster alternative to traditional maritime routes, promising lower freight costs and reduced handling...
India’s March Retail Inflation Quickens to 3.4% as US War on Iran Disrupts Global Trade Flows
India’s retail inflation accelerated to 3.40% in March, up from 3.21% in February, as U.S. naval actions against Iran disrupted global oil flows. The rise was partly driven by higher fuel costs, while gold prices fell about 11% and partially...
Oil Tankers Steer Clear of Hormuz Ahead of US Blockade
Two Iranian‑linked tankers left the Gulf on Monday, each carrying roughly 330,000 barrels of oil, as the United States announced a blockade of Iranian ports. President Trump said the Navy would enforce the blockade on vessels entering or exiting Iranian...
Legarda Urges Gov’t: Impose Immediate Suspension of Fuel Excise Tax, VAT on Diesel and Gas as Relief Remains Unfelt
Senator Loren Legarda urged the Philippine government to immediately suspend the excise tax and 12% VAT on diesel and gasoline, saying current relief measures have not reached most citizens. She estimates that removing the ₱6 diesel excise and 12% VAT...
Animal Protein Prices Trend Firmer Across Multiple Regions
Animal protein markets showed mixed firmness across regions in the week to April 9. In Australia, feathermeal export prices dropped to A$720‑740/tonne (≈$508‑$522), while domestic poultry meal edged higher, and New Zealand’s meat‑and‑bone‑meal (MBM) rose modestly. Brazil’s MBM prices hovered around 1.80 Reais/kg...
How a UK Military College Sought to Distance Itself From Ban on Israelis
The UK Ministry of Defence barred Israeli officers from the Royal College of Defence Studies (RCDS) after Israel announced a major ground assault on Gaza. Internal emails show RCDS commandant George Norton asked a senior army lieutenant general to help...
BRICS+ City Network Voices Solidarity with Tehran as Tensions with US Persist
Senior officials of the BRICS+ Association of Cities and Municipalities sent a solidarity message to Tehran’s mayor, expressing concern over regional tensions with the United States. The note was authored by Il’sur Metshin, mayor of Kazan, Russia, and Washington Quaquá,...
Report: Luxury Sales Dropped 30-50% in March at Mall of the Emirates
Luxury sales at Dubai’s Mall of the Emirates plunged between 30% and 50% in March, the steepest decline since the mall opened. The drop aligns with heightened regional conflict, reduced tourist arrivals, and softer consumer confidence across the Gulf. Analysts...
US, China Seen as Top AI Beneficiaries in New Growth Forecast From ‘Doctor Doom’ Economist
Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini, once famed as “Doctor Doom,” has turned bullish, forecasting that a surge in artificial intelligence and other high‑tech innovations will propel the United States into double‑digit annual growth. He projects China will experience a comparable boost,...
Tory Ex-Chancellor Jeremy Hunt Proposes ‘Social Tariff’ to Help Less Well-Off with Energy Bills
Former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has unveiled a "social tariff" aimed at shielding low‑income Britons from soaring energy costs triggered by the Iran war. The Resolution Foundation warns households could be about £500 (≈$635) poorer this year, estimating a £3.7 bn (≈$4.7 bn)...
Populism Lost in Hungary but Still Might Win the War, One Strategist Argues
Viktor Orban’s defeat after 16 years in power sparked a rally in Hungary’s forint and a 3% surge in the BUX index, the strongest market move on Monday. Yet analysts argue the loss may not curb the broader wave of...
Philippines Faces Fiscal Constraints on Tax Reform Delays, Swelling Debt—AMRO
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office warns that the Philippines’ fiscal health is under pressure as delays in key tax reforms have stalled revenue growth. Non‑tax earnings plunged nearly 40% to about $6.8 billion in 2025, while total government debt surged to...
Rate Hike Bets Increase After the Failed US-Iran Talks as Energy Prices Remain Elevated
Traders have raised expectations for rate hikes after the collapse of US‑Iran peace talks, which revived fears of a prolonged conflict. WTI crude oil climbed back above $100 per barrel following President Trump's announcement of a naval blockade in the...
Iran's Business Leaders Warn Internet Shutdowns Costing up to $80mn a Day
Iran's leading business chambers warned that internet shutdowns tied to the ongoing conflict are draining up to $80 million a day from the country's digital economy. Direct losses are estimated at $30‑$40 million daily, with indirect costs pushing the total higher. Hundreds...
China Urges Restraint over US Blockade of Strait of Hormuz, Backs Talks
China urged calm and restraint after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to block maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks in Islamabad. The U.S. Central Command announced a blockade of Iranian ports would begin Monday, raising...
Wall Street Banks Set for $40bn Trading Windfall as Geopolitical Volatility Fuels Market Swings
Wall Street’s five biggest banks are on track to generate more than $40 bn in trading profit for Q1, the strongest collective performance since at least 2014. The surge is driven by heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East and renewed...
How US Shippers Are Using Air Cargo to Reconfigure Trade Flows and Protect Margins
U.S. importers are increasingly treating air freight as a strategic hedge against tariff volatility, accelerating shipments before duty hikes and diversifying sourcing. The higher cost of air cargo is justified by avoided tariff liabilities, especially for high‑value goods where modest...
China New Bank Loans Slow Further in the First Quarter This Year
China's new yuan loans slowed sharply in Q1 2026, with March lending hitting ¥2.99 trillion (about $420 billion), well below the ¥3.4 trillion ($480 billion) forecast. Total new bank credit for the quarter fell to ¥8.6 trillion ($1.2 trillion), a decline from ¥9.8 trillion ($1.37 trillion) a year...
Orbán Is Out — Now, for the EU, the Hard Part Begins
Peter Magyar’s party secured a two‑thirds supermajority in Hungary, ending Viktor Orbán’s decade‑long rule. The win gives Magyar constitutional powers to overhaul institutions, but the entrenched “deep state” of media, business and patronage will limit rapid change. Brussels sees an...
Oil Prices Rise as Failed Deal Between U.S. and Iran Raises Risk of Prolonged War
Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel on Monday after the United States and Iran failed to reach a deal in 21 hours of negotiations. West Texas Intermediate May futures jumped 8% to $104.39, while Brent June contracts rose to...