NAB Calls June RBA Hike to 4.60% as Middle East Inflation Compounds Domestic Pressures
NAB has upgraded its Reserve Bank of Australia outlook, now expecting a June cash‑rate increase to 4.60%, up from the 4.35% set in May. The bank cites a dual‑inflation shock—persistent domestic capacity constraints and a second‑round price impact from the Middle‑East oil crisis—as justification for further tightening. Governor Michele Bullock’s rejection of a “wait‑and‑watch” stance reinforced NAB’s view that the RBA cannot delay action. Despite the hawkish call, NAB still projects two rate cuts in the second half of 2027 as growth eases.
South Korea’s Steps to Limit Inflation Increases Paying Off — so Far
South Korea’s consumer‑price inflation rose to 2.6% YoY in April, driven mainly by a 21.9% jump in oil prices. Government interventions—food vouchers, a gasoline‑price cap and frozen utility rates—softened food and energy price pressures, keeping core inflation at 2.2% for...
China Private Survey Rating Dog Services PMI 52.6 in April (up From 52.1 in March)
China's private RatingDog services PMI rose to 52.6 in April from 52.1 in March, indicating a faster expansion pace. New orders grew for a 40‑month streak, driven chiefly by domestic demand, while export orders fell for a second consecutive month....
Geopolitics without Recession? Why Aviation Still Feels the Shock First
Oxford Economics finds geopolitical shocks no longer reliably trigger global recessions, but aviation remains highly vulnerable. The sector faces immediate operational disruptions from airspace closures, fuel price swings, and shifting traveler confidence, turning macro resilience into real‑time strain. CAPA’s Rich...
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Reference Rate for Today at 6.8562 (Vs. Estimate at 6.8160)
The People’s Bank of China set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8562, outpacing the Reuters estimate of 6.8160. This 40‑basis‑point appreciation is the strongest yuan level since March 24, 2023, and comes as China reopens after an extra‑long holiday. The PBOC allows...
India–US Trade Deal Very Close, Last Hurdle Remains, Says US Official
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau said the United States and India are "very, very close" to sealing a long‑awaited bilateral trade pact, with only a final obstacle remaining. The framework, unveiled in early February, envisions U.S. tariffs on...
SelectUSA Summit: Indian Companies Pledge ₹1.1 Billion Investment and 1,500 Jobs
At the SelectUSA Investment Summit, twelve Indian companies announced a combined $1.1 billion investment in the United States, covering aerospace, defence, energy, advanced manufacturing and artificial intelligence. The largest single investor, Abhyuday Group, will spend $900 million to create manufacturing clusters in...
Trump Says Great Progress in Final Agreement with Iran, Suspends Project Freedom
President Donald Trump announced the suspension of Project Freedom, the U.S. operation escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, citing "great progress" in talks with Iran toward a final peace agreement. While the naval blockade around the strait remains...
Oil Price Rises Bolster India's Ethanol Push Despite Drawbacks
India achieved its 20% ethanol‑in‑gasoline target (E20) a year ahead of schedule, driven by soaring crude oil prices amid Middle‑East tensions. The government is now eyeing higher blends, even up to 85% ethanol, to cut its massive import bill, which...
West Asia War May Briefly Dent India's Growth as Fundamentals Strong: Memani
The West Asia war is expected to temporarily dent India’s growth, nudging the FY27 forecast down from the pre‑war 7‑7.4% range toward the RBI’s 6.9% outlook. Inflation has spiked, with wholesale‑price‑index rising to 3.88% in March while consumer‑price‑index remains within...
Oil Futures Markets Still Too Complacent About Supply Shock
Oil futures are trading $20‑$30 per barrel below physical spot prices as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, underscoring a market underestimation of the ongoing Middle East supply shock. Physical grades like Forties, Troll, Cabinda and Sverdrup have surged to...
Oil Extends Decline as Trump Says ‘Great Progress’ in Iran Talks
Oil prices fell for a second consecutive day after President Donald Trump announced "great progress" toward a final agreement to end the war with Iran. West Texas Intermediate slipped toward $100 a barrel, while Brent settled near $110, reversing earlier...
Trump Says Pausing Hormuz Operation in Push for Iran Deal
President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that the United States is pausing its "Project Freedom" operation, which began on Monday to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The pause follows a request from mediator Pakistan and other nations...
Over 98% of Stablecoins Are Dollar Backed. That’s Good for the U.S.—until It’s Not
Stablecoins are now overwhelmingly dollar‑denominated, with more than 98% of supply pegged to the greenback. Industry leaders such as Visa and Stripe are integrating these tokens, accelerating global use of U.S. dollars for payments and savings. Experts say this cements...
‘Trumpflation’ Warning: Mortgage Bills Could Rise by £3,000 Annually – Moneyfacts
Moneyfacts’ INTEREST division warns that a "Trumpflation" shock—oil above $120 and inflation peaking at 6.2%—could push the Bank of England base rate to 5.25%, lifting average mortgage rates to roughly 6.75%. For a typical £250,000 (≈$320,000) 25‑year repayment mortgage, monthly...
Thai Companies Attend US Investment Summit
Thai delegations attended the SelectUSA Investment Summit 2026 in Washington, D.C., meeting U.S. Commerce Department officials and the Office of the United States Trade Representative to discuss trade policy and investment trends. The Thai Feed Mill Association signed an MoU...
DR Congo’s Cobalt Miners Pivot To Copper Amid Price Crash
The Democratic Republic of Congo is curbing cobalt output and imposing strict export quotas as prices plunge, while redirecting capital toward copper, where demand from AI data centers and electric vehicles is surging. Glencore cut cobalt production by 39% year‑on‑year...
Are We Headed Toward a US-China Trade Showdown?
President Donald Trump is set to travel to Beijing within two weeks, sparking speculation of a renewed US‑China trade showdown. The upcoming talks will likely focus on contentious issues such as the Iran war, Washington’s push for stricter “rules of...
Iran Launches "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" To Administer Hormuz Tolls
Iran has established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) as a single‑window entity to manage tolls for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Shipowners will receive official communications from info@PGSA.ir to align procedures and obtain transit authorizations from the Islamic...
Gold Rises as Trump Touts Progress with Iran and Dollar Falls
Gold prices climbed to about $4,590 an ounce, up roughly 0.8% after President Donald Trump announced "great progress" toward a final Iran agreement. The comment eased inflation concerns, prompting a 0.2% dip in the dollar index and making gold cheaper...
US, Gulf Nations to Force UN Vote on Hormuz Toll
Washington is spearheading a United Nations Security Council resolution demanding that Iran lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and cease collecting tolls for vessel passage. The proposal aims to protect a critical chokepoint that handles roughly a fifth...
Record Stock Rally Extends, Oil Drops on Iran: Markets Wrap
Stocks surged to a record after President Donald Trump signaled progress toward a final agreement with Iran, adding fresh momentum to a market already buoyed by a technology rally. MSCI’s Asian equity gauge jumped 1.7% to an all‑time high, led...
U.S. Oil Can’t Fill the Middle East Supply Hole
U.S. crude exports hit a record 5.2 million barrels per day in early May as Middle East supply disruptions force the United States to act as a “supplier of last resort.” The surge has drawn down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, emptied...
Traders Ramp Up Bets Warsh’s Fed Could Hike Rates Before Cutting
Bond traders are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will raise rates before any cuts, with swaps now pricing a greater than 50% chance of a hike by next April. The shift reflects growing hedging activity in SOFR futures and...
Rubio Warns Iran of 'Total Defeat' If It Refuses Deal
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Iran that refusing a new deal will lead to economic collapse and "total defeat," after the Navy launched Project Freedom to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The operation enabled two U.S.-flagged vessels to...
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PAIN AT THE PUMPS: Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources Reduces Diesel Price Hike After Significant Miscalculation
South Africa's Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) corrected a miscalculation that had initially set the diesel wholesale increase at R6.19 per litre (≈$0.33) to a lower R5.27 per litre (≈$0.28), bringing the price to R31.17/L (≈$1.64). The petrol...
Venezuela’s Oil Rebound Shows Why the Petrodollar Is a Logistics System
Venezuela’s oil exports rose 14 % in April to 1.23 million barrels per day, the highest level since 2018, after U.S. Treasury’s General License 50A reopened legal channels for U.S., Indian and European buyers. The rebound reflects the re‑activation of a complex logistics...
Dispatch From Kyiv: Europe Steps up on Security as the US Steps Back
Europe is rapidly reshaping its security posture after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and perceived U.S. unreliability. NATO members have accelerated defense spending to the fastest pace since 1953, with Germany targeting 460,000 combat‑ready troops and Poland aiming for 500,000. The...
Stocks Gain as Investors Take Heart From Upbeat Earnings, Dip in Oil
Asian equities slipped 0.3% as oil prices stayed above $100 per barrel, reflecting lingering geopolitical tension in the Gulf. Brent crude fell to $113.85 a barrel and U.S. crude to $105.03 after renewed U.S.-Iran clashes in the Strait of Hormuz....
Fed's Barr Says Gas Prices Could 'Bleed' Into Inflation
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr warned that the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict could push gasoline and fertilizer prices higher, potentially feeding broader inflation. He noted that U.S. natural‑gas markets are relatively insulated because they are not fully integrated into global markets,...
Credit Growth Signals Economic Strength: Finance Ministry
India’s finance ministry highlighted a surge in non‑food credit growth to 15.9% in FY 26, up from 10.9% a year earlier. Aggregate credit outstanding reached ₹212.9 lakh crore (about $2.6 trillion), a rise of ₹29.2 lakh crore (~$352 billion) YoY. The expansion was broad‑based, led by the...
Rare Earths, PCBs Among 40 Sub-Sectors on FDI Fast Track
India has placed rare‑earth magnets and printed circuit boards among 40 sub‑sectors eligible for a 60‑day fast‑track FDI clearance. The new SOP requires detailed ownership disclosure for investors from China or other bordering nations, with data shared with the RBI....
Mysterious Trader Buys $56 Million in Oil Ahead of UAE Attack
John Lothian News is rolling out “Auditions,” a new JLN Topic Page that will serve as a showcase for market‑related entertainment content creators. The platform will host scripts, documentaries, books, and poems that blend finance themes with storytelling. Its inaugural...
Indonesia's 5.61% Q1 Growth Hides Weak Fundamentals, Economists Warn
Indonesia’s economy expanded 5.61% year‑on‑year in the first quarter of 2026, the quickest pace in almost three years. The surge was largely fueled by a spike in household consumption as millions of Muslims returned home for Eid al‑Fitr. Economists warn...
Norway Just Switched on Another Gas Lifeline for Europe
Equinor has brought Norway’s long‑idle Eirin gas field into production, adding roughly 27.6 million barrels of oil‑equivalent of gas to Europe’s supply. The project was approved in early 2023 and began output within three years, costing about NOK 4.5 billion (≈$495 million). By tying...
Iran War Could Drag India's GDP Growth to 6.5% This Fiscal, Says CII President Rajiv Memani
India’s GDP could expand about 7% this fiscal if the Iran war ends soon, but Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) president Rajiv Memani warns growth may slip to 6.5% if the conflict persists. He noted that FY 26 growth is projected at...
Nepal to Procure 80,000 Tonnes of Fertiliser From India as Iran Disrupts Global Supply Chains
Nepal will buy 80,000 tonnes of fertilizer from India under a government‑to‑government agreement to offset global supply shocks caused by the West Asia war. The shipment comprises 60,000 tonnes of urea and 20,000 tonnes of di‑ammonium phosphate, funded by a...
Dollar Softens as Middle East Ceasefire Holds
The U.S. dollar slipped modestly on Tuesday as markets absorbed a tentative cease‑fire between the United States and Iran, easing geopolitical risk. The dollar index fell 0.03% to 98.44, while the euro and sterling edged higher. The Japanese yen stayed...
One American Loses Their Job for Every 6 Immigrants Removed From the Workforce as Researchers See ‘No Evidence’ that ICE...
A new NBER study finds that heightened ICE activity under the Trump administration has removed roughly 1.2 million foreign‑born workers, triggering a cascade of job losses among native‑born males. In areas with a surge in ICE arrests, six undocumented men left...
Ruto Makes Case to Tanzania for Tanga Refinery
Kenyan President William Ruto used his Tanzania visit to promote a regional oil refinery in Tanga, seeking financing from Nigerian mogul Aliko Dangote. Tanzanian officials initially reacted cautiously, but Ruto’s business forum and parliamentary address secured broader political openness. The...
Global Oil Reserves Plunge at Record Pace as Middle East War Strains Supplies
Global oil inventories shrank by a record‑fast 12 million barrels in a single week, the steepest drawdown since 2020. The ongoing Middle East conflict has knocked roughly 1 million barrels per day of regional output off the market, tightening supplies further. In...
Stock Markets Are Wobbling, but £10bn Cash Bids at Fat Premiums Can Still Happen
The FTSE 100 slipped 1.4% on May 5, yet it remains a few points above its New Year level despite the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict. Swedish private‑equity firm EQT has raised its cash offer for Intertek to £58 per share (about $74), a 54% premium...
Govt Clears ₹50,000-Crore Package to Boost Credit Flow and Support Businesses
The Indian Union Cabinet approved a ₹18.1 billion (~$2.2 bn) Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) 5.0, part of a broader ₹50 bn (~$6.0 bn) package aimed at easing liquidity pressures from the West Asia crisis. The scheme offers up to ₹2.55 trillion (~$30.7 bn) of...
Why the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Is Exposing Hidden Weaknesses in Supply Chains
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are destabilizing tanker traffic, causing ripples across raw‑material supplies for fertilizers, polymers and packaging. While companies now have dashboards that flag these delays, the lack of coordinated response across procurement, operations and commercial teams...
Amb. Ina Marciulionyte on the Future of EU-Mongolia Ties
Ambassador Ina Marciulionyte highlighted the deepening EU‑Mongolia partnership as it marks 35 years of diplomatic ties and aligns with the EU’s broader Indo‑Pacific push, including its new free‑trade pact with India. Current EU initiatives span renewable‑energy transmission lines in the Gobi, forest...
UK Long-Term Borrowing Costs Reach 28-Year High
Long‑term UK government bond yields surged to levels not seen since the late 1990s, with the 30‑year gilt reaching about 5.78% and the 10‑year hitting roughly 5.1%. The spike follows the Iran‑Israel conflict, which has shut the Strait of Hormuz,...
US Trade Gap Widens in March as AI Spending Boosts Imports
U.S. trade data for March showed the deficit expanding 4.4% to $60.3 billion, slightly above expectations. Imports increased 2.3% to $381.2 billion, with AI hardware, computers and autos driving the rise, while exports grew 2.0% to $320.9 billion, led by crude oil and...
War Puts LNG Future in the Spotlight
Asian imports of liquefied natural gas plunged to a seven‑year low as the Middle East war cut roughly a quarter of global LNG supply. The shortage drove spot prices to multi‑year highs and sparked a scramble for the limited cargoes...
Rates Spark: Triple-Whammy for Gilts
UK 10‑year gilt yields surged to 5.1%, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, as higher oil prices and a tight link to US Treasury rates create a double‑whammy for British government bonds. The rise is amplified by a...
Canadian Cattle Association Warns Against Entering Mercosur Trade Deal
The Canadian Cattle Association (CCA) has warned that a prospective free‑trade agreement with Mercosur could jeopardize domestic beef producers. CCA argues the deal would increase imports of lower‑cost, lower‑standard beef from Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, despite Canada already importing...