Kenya as Lynchpin for France's Broader Engagements with Africa
France is recalibrating its Africa strategy, moving beyond its traditional francophone strongholds toward a diversified partnership model. The 2026 Africa Forward Summit will be hosted in Kenya, marking the first time the event leaves a francophone nation. Kenya’s economy is projected to grow 4.9% in 2026, positioning it as a reliable regional hub for finance, technology and transport. The summit underscores Kenya’s role as the lynchpin of France’s renewed engagement with the continent.
‘Zeitenwende’ Is Anchoring Germany’s Role as a Baltic Sea Power
Germany’s "Zeitenwende" overhaul, driven by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is reshaping Berlin into a Baltic Sea security anchor. Defense spending is slated to rise to roughly $178 bn by 2029—a 70% jump—backed by a trillion‑dollar loan and €50 bn ($55 bn) procurement plan. The navy...
Swiss Manufacturing, Biotech Industry so Far Unfazed by Geopolitics
Swiss pharmaceutical manufacturing remains stable despite looming US tariff threats and broader geopolitical tensions. Industry leaders say output levels and export volumes have held steady through 2023, while biotech firms continue robust R&D spending. Analysts note that some multinational drugmakers...
Leaked Data Deal Fuels Concerns as Europeans Risk US Entry Bans for Critics of Trump
A leaked draft of a U.S.-EU biometric data‑sharing agreement reveals that Washington could deny entry or arrest EU citizens who criticize President Donald Trump. The proposal, pushed by the European Commission after U.S. threats to revoke visa‑free travel, would grant...
Riksbank Likely to Hold but Hawkish Risks Are Growing
The Swedish Riksbank is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% during the May 7 meeting, but analysts see a growing hawkish tilt as inflation risks rise. March’s CPIF inflation eased to 1.6% thanks to a sharp drop in...
Preserving Inflation Targeting Framework’s Core Architecture Is a Policy Choice of Consequence: RBI Dy Guv Gupta
The Reserve Bank of India has renewed its inflation‑targeting framework, keeping a 4 percent headline CPI goal with a ±2 percent tolerance band through March 2031. Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said the decision provides predictability amid geopolitical tensions, supply‑chain shocks and volatile energy...
Understanding Macron's Anglophone Africa Pivot
President Emmanuel Macron is shifting France’s Africa policy from the Francophone‑centric “Françafrique” model toward an inclusive partnership with anglophone and lusophone nations. The pivot, highlighted at the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi, emphasizes moving from aid to co‑investment across security,...
National Bank of Poland Preview: Rates on Hold for Now with a Hawkish Tilt Likely
Poland’s National Bank (NBP) is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.75% after April CPI rose to 3.2% year‑on‑year, driven by stronger core inflation, and March activity outperformed forecasts. While the rate pause reflects caution, the Monetary Policy Council...
Will the US Serra Verde Acquisition Help Break China’s Rare Earth Monopoly?
On April 20, USA Rare Earth announced a $2.8 billion acquisition of Brazil’s Serra Verde Group, backed by a $565 million loan from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation. The deal includes a 15‑year government‑backed offtake vehicle that will channel all of Serra Verde’s rare‑earth ore...
Single Best Idea: Bercetche & Terry (Podcast)
Bloomberg Surveillance released a new "Single Best Idea" podcast episode on May 5, 2026, featuring market strategists Joumanna Bercetche and Heath Terry. Hosted by Tom Keene, the 3‑minute‑15‑second segment distills the guests' top investment thesis for the coming year. The...
UN Weighs Iran Sanctions as Strait Crisis Tests Fragile Truce
The UN Security Council will debate a US‑ and Bahrain‑backed draft resolution that could impose sanctions on Iran and, under Chapter VII, authorize force if Tehran does not stop attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Recent clashes, including...
Iran’s Top Diplomat Abbas Araghchi to Visit China Days Ahead of Donald Trump
Iran’s top diplomat Abbas Araghchi is traveling to Beijing to meet Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, marking the latest diplomatic push to end the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict. The talks follow weeks of calls urging a cease‑fire and come after Araghchi’s recent trips...
DHL CEO Flags Jet Fuel Supply Constraints in Asia
DHL Group’s CEO Tobias Meyer warned that jet‑fuel shortages are tightening at several Asian airports, a fallout from the Iran‑related disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. While DHL’s major hubs such as Leipzig enjoy reliable fuel supplies,...
Watch: How Two-Way Risks Are Dividing the Fed’s Policy Outlook
The Federal Reserve remains split over its future rate path as it grapples with two‑way risks: stubborn inflation and the potential for an energy price shock. While wage growth and overall economic activity are slowing, price pressures stay above target,...
UAE Goes Its Own Way
The United Arab Emirates announced its departure from OPEC, becoming the bloc’s largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia. The move follows Qatar’s 2019 exit and Angola’s in 2023, representing OPEC’s biggest capacity loss to date. UAE officials cite frustration with...
China’s Return to Infrastructure-Led Growth
China has pivoted back to infrastructure‑driven growth after lackluster consumption stimulus. First‑quarter 2026 GDP expanded 5% year‑on‑year, snapping a slowdown that began in late 2025. The producer price index turned positive, rising 0.5% YoY and ending a 41‑month deflationary run....
Ayman M Al-Sayari: Statement - International Monetary and Financial Committee
Ayman M. Al‑Sayari warned that the war in the Middle East is a material test for the global economy and the multilateral system, raising the risk of a 1970s‑style stagflation scenario. He highlighted the IMF’s reliance on credible surveillance, lending...
South West State Crisis a Litmus Test for Somalia’s Political Future
Somalia’s South West State is at the center of a federal‑state power struggle after federal troops removed the region’s newly elected president, Abdiaziz Hassan Laftagareen, following a disputed March 28 election. The National Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission has scheduled fresh...
Geopolitics Reshapes CEO Priorities as Firms Focus on Profitability, AI and Dealmaking
The EY‑Parthenon CEO Outlook Survey of 1,200 leaders across 21 countries finds geopolitical risk now tops the agenda, with 56% naming it the most pressing threat for the next year. Executives are pivoting toward disciplined growth, prioritising profitability, financial flexibility...
Aleš Michl: Forever Hawkish
Aleš Michl became governor of the Czech National Bank in July 2022 when inflation was 17.5%, peaking at 18% two months later. By February 2024 the bank achieved its 2% target, becoming one of Europe’s first to do so, and...
Lesetja Kganyago: Supply Shocks, Monetary Policy and the 3% Target
South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said the country entered the current supply‑shock environment already at its newly adopted 3% inflation target, allowing the central bank to keep its policy stance calibrated. He highlighted that recent reforms—such as exiting...
Chiara Scotti: Digital Money and the Architecture of Trust
Chiara Scotti, speaking at a Banca d'Italia workshop co‑hosted with the ECB, emphasized that trust—not intrinsic value—underpins all forms of money. She warned that the rise of central‑bank digital currencies, stablecoins and tokenized deposits shifts focus from technology to the...
MSC Bridges the Strife with New Europe-Red Sea-Middle East Express
MSC announced the Europe‑Red Sea‑Middle East Express, a new container service that connects ten European and Middle Eastern ports, launching its first sailing from Antwerp on 10 May. The route bypasses the Strait of Hormuz by using a land‑bridge through Saudi...
Fertiglobe Profits Surge on Middle East Conflict-Driven Price Spike
Fertiglobe, the Abu Dhabi‑based fertilizer subsidiary of ADNOC, saw first‑quarter profit surge 173% to $197.9 million, driven by a sharp price spike after the Iran‑Israel conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz. Revenue rose 32% to $915 million despite a 12% drop in...
Duty-Free Beef Quota Gives US Exporters New Access to the UK
The United States has secured a 13,000‑tonne duty‑free beef quota for the United Kingdom, marking the first zero‑tariff access since Brexit. The inaugural shipment arrived in March, accompanied by launch events at the US Embassy and a steakhouse dinner. USMEF...
Financial System Resilient Amid Heightened Global Risks
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report warns that the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are driving up fuel costs and slowing the country’s post‑pandemic growth. Despite these pressures, New Zealand banks retain...
Omnia Says It Is Built to Absorb Hormuz Shock
Omnia, South Africa’s key supplier of fertiliser and mining explosives, says its supply chain can weather the current disruption of ammonia shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The company has six to eight weeks of on‑site chemical storage and has...
Black Sea Wheat Pushes Australian Wheat Out of SE Asia
Buyers in Southeast Asia are shifting from Australian Standard White wheat (ASW9) to lower‑cost Black Sea wheat with 11.5% protein for June shipments. Black Sea offers of $283‑285 per tonne are about $10 lower than ASW9, widening the premium buyers...
New EV Tax Could Cost Economy Billions, Association Warns
The UK government plans to roll out a mileage‑based electric Vehicle Excise Duty (eVED) in April 2028, charging three pence per mile for EVs. BEAMA, representing energy‑infrastructure firms, warns the policy could shave up to £4.8 bn ($6.1 bn) from the economy in...
Jerome Powell’s Finest Hour
Jerome Powell, the outgoing Federal Reserve chair, is being cast as a modern‑day Churchill for defending the central bank’s independence against President Donald Trump’s political pressure. The piece argues that despite policy missteps, Powell’s willingness to push back on attempts...
Indo-Pacific Trade Pact Losing Relevance Under Trump’s Aggressive Strategy: GTRI
The Indo‑Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), a 14‑member grouping representing 40% of global GDP, is losing relevance under President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade strategy, according to think tank GTRI. While the pact’s four pillars cover trade, supply‑chain resilience, clean...
Charting the New Education Financing Landscape: Macro Stability, Rising Costs and the India Opportunity
India’s education‑loan sector is gaining momentum despite a volatile global backdrop, buoyed by a young, urbanising population and an expanding middle class. The market is projected to expand at an 11‑13% CAGR through 2029, with overseas study demand accounting for...
Kyodo News Digest: May 5, 2026
Japan and South Africa agreed to deepen cooperation on critical mineral supply chains, aiming to attract corporate investment and revive South Africa's lagging economy. In Washington, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Donald Trump will urge China’s Xi Jinping to...
Oil Prices Jump on Hormuz Tensions as US Indices Retreat From Records
Oil prices jumped over 5% after a drone strike ignited a fire at a UAE energy installation in Fujairah, raising concerns about the US‑Iran cease‑fire. The U.S. Navy deployed destroyers through the Strait of Hormuz as part of a new...
Correspondence: Asset Purchase Facility (APF) Ceiling, May 2026
On 5 May 2026 the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Governor of the Bank of England exchanged letters confirming a reduction in the maximum authorised size of the Asset Purchase Facility (APF). The move follows a framework set...
Middle East Crisis Live: ‘We Have Not Even Begun’, Iran Warns US Amid Escalation in Strait of Hormuz
Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned the United States that the status‑quo in the Strait of Hormuz is "intolerable" and signaled that Tehran has only begun its response. Tehran’s blockade of foreign shipping follows a US‑Israeli strike that killed Iran’s former...
Study: UK Food Prices on Track to Surge 50 per Cent over Past Five Years
A new report from the Energy and Climate Impact Unit (ECIU) projects UK food prices will climb roughly 50% over the next five years, outpacing general inflation. The surge is attributed to a "perfect storm" of rising fossil‑fuel costs, climate‑driven...
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Have ‘Frank’ Conversation with the Pope – Europe Live
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is slated to meet Pope Leo XIV in the Vatican for a “frank” conversation about U.S. policy, especially the looming war in Iran, after President Donald Trump publicly criticized the pope. The meeting comes...
PSEi Falls Below 5,900 on Inflation Shock
The Philippine Stock Exchange Index slipped below 5,900, closing at 5,898.08, after inflation surged to 7.2% and geopolitical tensions rose in the Middle East. The index fell 0.74% (44.08 points). Turnover was only PHP 4.61 billion (≈ $83 million) and foreign inflows were PHP 38.59 million...
Reserve Bank of Australia Delivers Decisive Hike, Signals Balanced Path Ahead
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%, in line with market expectations. Eight of nine board members backed the move, marking a more decisive stance than the previous split vote. Simultaneously, the...
'We Should Never Have Signed This Trade Deal with the US,' Leading MEP Says
French MEP Aurore Lalucq warned that the EU‑US trade deal signed in July 2025 should never have been concluded after President Donald Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on EU cars, far above the 15% ceiling in the agreement. The pact eliminates U.S....
Carney's Fiscal Update Plays a Charming Tune, but Falls Off at the End
Mark Carney’s spring fiscal update projects a 2025‑26 deficit of $66.9 billion, a modest improvement from the $78.3 billion forecast but still historic in size. The government relies on an accounting split that promises a balanced operating budget by 2028‑29 while overall...
Trump’s Southeast Asia Trade Deals Are in Limbo
Malaysia has become the first Southeast Asian nation to formally terminate its tariff agreement with the Trump administration after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled the president lacked authority for the “Liberation Day” tariffs. The decision leaves six ASEAN members—Cambodia, Indonesia,...
Drowning in Debt, 8 Million Firms Miss Payments in Brazil
Brazil’s stock market has surged nearly 60% in dollar terms, but a hidden crisis is unfolding as 8.9 million firms—representing roughly $43 billion in delinquent debt—struggle to meet obligations. Borrowing costs have risen to a two‑decade peak, with the central bank’s Selic...
Why RBI Wants to Keep India's Gold at Home
The Reserve Bank of India repatriated more than 100 tonnes of gold in the six months to March, boosting domestic gold holdings to 680 tonnes, which now represent about 17% of its $698.5 billion total reserves. The gold share in RBI’s portfolio has...
India Among Most Resilient as Global Shocks Test Emerging Markets: Moody’s Ratings
Moody’s Ratings finds that India and Thailand have emerged as the most resilient large emerging markets amid a series of global shocks since 2020. Clear monetary policy frameworks, anchored inflation expectations and flexible exchange rates helped these economies absorb stress...
Listen: Trump Threatens with New Tariffs on Cars, Will the EU Retaliate?
President Donald Trump announced a hike in tariffs on European automobiles, raising the duty from 15% to 25%. The move targets key EU exporters such as Germany, Slovakia, Italy and Sweden, whose car plants rely heavily on the U.S. market....
Reform UK’s Immigration Policies Are a Significant Risk to the UK Economy | Sushil Wadhwani
Reform UK’s anti‑immigration platform could trigger a forced departure of up to two million residents, far exceeding prior deportation targets. The resulting loss of foreign‑born NHS staff and other skilled workers would strain health services, raise waiting lists, and ripple through...
Asia Fracturing Into Energy Security Haves and Have-Nots
Asia’s once‑uniform growth story is fracturing into tiers defined by energy security. Wealthy economies such as Japan, South Korea and Singapore can leverage massive foreign‑exchange reserves to secure fuel and stabilize currencies, while lower‑resilience nations face soaring inflation, weaker currencies...
Asia Absorbs Rising, Uneven Cost of Energy Crisis Caused by War on Iran
Asia, the world’s largest oil‑importing region, is feeling the brunt of the energy shock triggered by the U.S. and Israel’s war on Iran. Oil imports fell 30% in April, the lowest level since 2015, prompting the Asian Development Bank to...