A Year After Operation Sindoor: Rising Risks and Deepening Instability
On May 6‑7 2025 India launched Operation Sindoor, a series of air and missile strikes against terrorist camps in Pakistan and Pakistan‑administered Kashmir in retaliation for the Pahalgam attack that killed 26 civilians. The strikes sparked a four‑day exchange of fire between the nuclear‑armed neighbours before a cease‑fire on May 10. In the aftermath New Delhi declared a new, uncompromising stance toward any terror incident, treating Pakistan’s state apparatus as a direct sponsor and limiting diplomatic restraint. Analysts warn that heightened domestic pressure, rapid military‑technology adoption, and Pakistan’s own security strains raise the risk of uncontrolled escalation.
Some in Oil, Natural Gas Sector Expected Quick Hormuz Reopening Before ‘Project Freedom’
A Dallas Federal Reserve survey found that 20% of oil and natural‑gas executives expect the Strait of Hormuz to resume normal traffic by May 2026, while 39% see reopening only by August 2026. The timeline follows President Trump’s announcement of...
Chinese Chamber of Commerce Puts a $432bn Price Tag on the EU’s Cybersecurity Overhaul
The China Chamber of Commerce in the EU commissioned KPMG to estimate the cost of the European Commission’s revised Cybersecurity Act, which would force the removal of Chinese suppliers from 18 critical sectors. The study puts the price tag at...
From Jewelers to Health Tech, CEOs Want Tariff Refunds as Earnings Take a Hit
European CEOs, including Philips and Pandora, are filing for U.S. tariff refunds after a Supreme Court ruling declared the duties illegal. The Treasury’s new portal could process claims from over 330,000 importers covering roughly 53 million entries, potentially costing the United...
Unlocking the Potential of Africa's Agricultural Value Chains
The Africa Forward Summit (AFS) 2026 will convene in Nairobi on May 11‑12, bringing together heads of state, investors, and policy makers to reshape Africa’s agricultural value chains. Organisers emphasize a shift from distant debate to concrete action that gives...
India’s Energy Risk Surges as Sea Routes Turn Strategic
India’s energy security is increasingly threatened by the strategic weaponisation of maritime chokepoints. About half of its crude oil and 90% of LPG/LNG imports travel through the Strait of Hormuz, while over a third of its overall trade depends on...
Fiscal Discipline Requires More than Rules
Government debt in many advanced economies has reached its highest level outside wartime, while emerging‑market debt continues a decade‑long upward trend. The recent shift away from ultra‑low interest rates intensifies concerns over fiscal sustainability. Research shows that merely imposing fiscal...
Chokepoints Review: Is Economic Warfare Here to Stay?
Edward Fishman's new paperback *Chokepoints* argues that control over the US dollar, advanced microchip technology and critical energy supply chains has become the primary weapon of 21st‑century geopolitics. Drawing on his tenure in the State Department’s sanctions teams, Fishman shows...
Ida Wolden Bache: Norges Bank's Management of the Government Pension Fund Global
Ida Wolden Bache outlined Norges Bank's handling of the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) as it navigates strong recent returns, heightened geopolitical risk, and a shift toward technology and AI. The fund posted a 15.1% return in 2025 and over...
Market Shifting as More Containers Are Shipped Back to China
European ports are experiencing prolonged congestion, prompting equipment owners to ship containers back to China. Sogese’s latest report highlights a clear directional shift as container prices rise on the back‑haul, reflecting strengthening demand at the origin. The repositioning effort is...
Panama Container Terminal Bidding Stacked Against U.S. Companies: Source
Panama’s Supreme Court voided CK Hutchison’s terminal concessions, seizing control of the Balboa and Cristóbal ports. The government appointed Maersk’s APM Terminals as interim operator while a new concessions process is prepared. A global roster of bidders, including DP World...
Oil Price Pulls Back and FTSE 100 Rebounds After ‘TACO’ Trump Post
Oil prices slipped below $100 a barrel on Wednesday after President Trump announced a pause to the U.S. naval escort operation in the Strait of Hormuz, signaling possible progress toward a U.S.-Iran peace deal. Brent crude fell from around $115,...
Negative Interest Rates May Be Closer than Hedge Funds Think: Fasanara’s Francesco Filia
Fasanara Capital CEO Francesco Filia warns that soaring public debt, ageing workforces and AI‑driven labour displacement could push central banks into negative‑interest‑rate territory after the next severe recession. He argues that conventional rate cuts may be insufficient once inflation is driven...
Africa Forward Summit Will Be Judged by What It Delivers
The Africa Forward Summit, co‑hosted by Kenya and France in May 2026, aims to turn rising global recognition of Africa into concrete outcomes. Organisers stress delivery on established priorities—infra‑structure, industrial capacity, digital investment and climate finance—rather than new declarations. The...
The Real Trouble with the US Debt Topping 100 Percent of GDP
U.S. publicly held debt topped $31.3 trillion in March, reaching 100.2% of GDP—the first time since 1946. The surge pushes net interest payments above defense spending and is projected to grow to 4.6% of GDP by 2036. While other advanced economies...
Over One Third of Small Businesses to “Reduce or Stop” Trading with EU
The Federation of Small Businesses reports that more than one‑third of UK SMEs are set to reduce or stop trading with the EU, citing divergent regulations, mounting red tape and rising compliance costs. Only 10% see growth opportunities in the...
Business Ties and Financial Reform in Focus at Africa Forward
The Africa Forward summit in Nairobi, hosted by France, placed trade, investment and financial reform at the forefront. French President Emmanuel Macron and Kenyan President William Ruto pledged to boost private‑sector investment across health, education, digital technology, energy and infrastructure,...
Jerome Powell’s Mixed Legacy
Jerome Powell will step down as Federal Reserve chair on May 15, 2026 after two terms marked by aggressive rate hikes and a high‑profile battle against inflation. He plans to remain on the Fed’s Board of Governors, a move that reinforces his...
Southern Yellow Pine Exports Rebound 47 Per Cent in March
U.S. exports of Southern Yellow Pine (SYP) lumber surged 47% year‑on‑year in March 2026, reaching 93,500 cubic metres. The average export price rose to $289 per cubic metre, a 5% increase from February and 2% above the March 2025 level....
Philippines First to Lose a Grip on Iran War-Stoked Inflation
Philippine inflation surged to 7.2% year‑on‑year in April, roughly double the 3.4% Q1 growth, as oil and fertilizer price spikes from the Iran‑Israel conflict hit the economy. The jump is expected to push inflation toward 8% in the second quarter,...
Adnoc Appears to Export Second LNG Shipment Through Hormuz
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) appears to have exported a second LNG cargo through the Strait of Hormuz, using the Mraweh tanker bound for Japan. The vessel likely loaded the gas at the Das Island export plant, the same...
Middle East Conflict Set to Test ASEAN Unity as Leaders Gather in Cebu for Summit
ASEAN leaders convene in Cebu amid the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict that threatens global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The summit’s agenda is dominated by energy security, with member states weighing the impact of disrupted supplies on their economies....
EU Cyber Plan Barring Chinese Suppliers Will Cost US$430 Billion: Report
The European Union is set to adopt a new Cybersecurity Act that would bar Chinese hardware from critical infrastructure such as telecoms, energy grids, and transport networks. A recent study estimates the required replacement of Chinese equipment will cost the...
South African Private Sector Growth Hits 44-Month High
South Africa’s private sector posted its strongest growth in 44 months, with the S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index climbing to 51.6 in April from 50.8 in March. The rise was driven by higher sales, a surge in export orders—especially to...
COMMENT: Iran War’s Geopolitical Risks Alone Is Not Enough to Cause a Global Recession
Oxford Economics’ Ben May argues that the recent surge in the Geopolitical Risk index, driven by the Iran‑Israel conflict and the Gulf war, is unlikely to become the main catalyst for a global recession. While the war has tightened energy...
Research: UK Official Holdings of International Reserves: April 2026
Britain’s monthly statistical release shows that official international reserves reached £210 bn (approximately $260 bn) in April 2026, up from £207 bn the month before. Gold holdings climbed to 310 t, while foreign‑currency assets slipped 2 % as the euro weakened against the dollar. IMF‑related assets...
New Data Release: ECB Wage Tracker Indicates Negotiated Wage Pressures Stable in 2026
The European Central Bank released its May 2026 wage‑tracker update, covering collective‑bargaining agreements through mid‑April. The headline tracker, which smooths one‑off payments, shows negotiated wage growth of 2.3% for 2026, while the unsmoothed version indicates 2.6% and the version excluding one‑off...
ADB Warns Asian Economies Against Broad Fuel Subsidies, Tax Cuts Amid Oil Price Risks
The Asian Development Bank warned Asian governments that broad fuel subsidies and excise‑duty cuts could jeopardize fiscal health as crude oil prices stay high. It emphasized preserving fiscal space, avoiding export controls, and shifting to targeted cash transfers for the...
France’s Manufacturing Bounce May Prove Short-Lived
French manufacturing output rose 1.2% month‑on‑month in March, lifting total industrial production 1% after February’s decline. The rebound was driven by inventory buildup and a short‑term competitiveness edge as Asian rivals faced energy disruptions. However, weak domestic and export demand...
Stranded for 60 Days Waiting for an All-Clear that Isn’t Coming
Seafarers have been anchored in the Strait of Hormuz for more than sixty days because the maritime industry has failed to create a coordinated response, not due to vessel damage or cargo disputes. The stalemate reflects a strategic posture by...
Resilient, Not Shock-Free: India Charts Path Through War Jitters
India’s economy is feeling the tremors of the West Asia conflict, with rising oil prices and trade disruptions testing its resilience. While the Finance Ministry’s April review notes strong domestic demand and solid policy buffers, export volumes fell 7.4% in...
Cement Sector Faces Margin Pressure Amid Weak Demand and Rising Costs
India's cement sector is bracing for margin compression over the next one to two quarters as input costs rise and demand weakens. Companies lifted prices in May by Rs10‑13 per bag (about $0.12‑$0.16), with the southern region seeing the steepest...
Russian Services and Manufacturing PMI Both Contract as Economy Struggles Under Weight of War
Russia’s service sector contracted for a second month in April, with the S&P Global Services PMI edging to 49.7, still below the 50‑point expansion threshold. Manufacturing activity deepened its slump, posting a 48.1 PMI – the eleventh consecutive month of...
FX Daily: Remarkable Resilience of Risk Assets
Investors are rallying risk assets after reports of progress in US‑Iran talks, prompting a sell‑off in the dollar. Oil markets remain in focus, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration expected to report a 2.4 million‑barrel draw, a figure that could trigger...
Aleta Planet Wins Key Licenses to Expand Into Malaysia
Singapore‑based fintech Aleta Planet has been granted a Money Services Business Class B licence and an e‑money issuer licence by Bank Negara Malaysia, allowing it to offer remittance and e‑money services alongside its existing merchant‑acquirer capability. The approvals position Malaysia...
CNBC's UK Exchange Newsletter: It's Not the 1970s, but the Oil Shock Is Still Biting Hard
Rising oil and gas prices have pushed UK consumer price inflation to 3.3% and sparked concerns of a second‑round wage surge that could force the Bank of England to tighten policy. Electricity prices remain the highest among major economies, averaging...
Europe’s Edge in 2026: Moats, Momentum and Mispricing
DWS and STOXX released a whitepaper titled “Europe’s Edge in 2026” highlighting a structural shift in the European economy after prolonged low growth and tight fiscal policy. The report argues that European companies now enjoy stronger competitive moats, sustained momentum,...
The End of the Yellen-Era Debt Playbook?
U.S. Treasury is moving away from Janet Yellen's short‑term bill‑heavy issuance strategy as new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent prepares to confront a $10 trillion debt wall in 2026. Bessent’s “3‑3‑3” plan targets 3 % GDP growth, a 3 %‑of‑GDP deficit by 2028, and...
India Bonds Rise as Oil Eases on Hopes of US-Iran Peace Deal
Indian government bonds rallied on Wednesday as falling crude prices, driven by hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal, eased inflation concerns. The benchmark 6.48% 2035 bond yield slipped to 6.9821% from 7.0184% the day before. Brent crude dropped more than...
Iran And China’s Foreign Ministers Meet In Beijing As Trump Pauses ‘Project Freedom’
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing, marking the first high‑level dialogue between the two nations since the U.S.–Iran war began. The talks occurred hours after President Donald Trump announced a temporary pause to the...
India Services Growth Picks up in April on Strong Domestic Demand, PMI Shows
India’s services sector rebounded in April, with the HSBC India Services PMI climbing to 58.8 from 57.5 in March, its strongest reading in five months. Domestic demand, especially in consumer services, drove the surge, offsetting a slowdown in international orders...
Making Sense of the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision on April 29, 2026
The Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% for the fourth straight meeting, effectively ending the easing cycle that began in late 2023. The hold was driven by a sharp inflation uptick to 2.4% YoY in March,...
Is This the Moment to Change the Way We Think About Economic Growth?
The IMF and Australian Treasury warn that economic growth in industrialised economies is decelerating as the Middle East war curtails oil, plastics and fertilizer exports. This slowdown fuels debate over the viability of perpetual growth, reviving degrowth and post‑growth theories...
USD/JPY Sees a Quick Knock Down Today, Another Intervention Hit?
The USD/JPY pair fell more than 90 pips, slipping below 157.00, amid another likely intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance. The move came during a Japanese market holiday and follows previous attempts that lost traction as the yen weakened toward...
Fast-Moving Indicators Are Now Showing the Effects of the Gulf War
The Financial Times’ Monetary Policy Radar team is introduced, highlighting its four core contributors. Chris Giles, the former global economics editor, now heads the unit and produces the “Chris Giles on Central Banks” newsletter. Andrew Whiffin, a UK CFA Journalist...
US Commerce Locks in 231.60% Duties on Chinese Mouldings Till 2031
The U.S. Department of Commerce has extended its antidumping and countervailing duty orders on Chinese wood mouldings and millwork, imposing weighted‑average dumping margins of up to 231.60% and subsidy rates of up to 252.29% through May 5 2031. The expedited 120‑day sunset...
Imbalances Are Back on the Global Agenda
Global current‑account imbalances have resurfaced, with the United States now shouldering external liabilities equal to 24% of world output, far above the 6% level in 2008. The traditional surplus economies—China, Germany, Japan and oil exporters—remain dominant, while former European deficit...
Four in Five Britons Worried Iran War Will Make Food More Expensive, Poll Finds
A poll by Opinium shows 80% of Britons fear the Iran‑Israel conflict will raise grocery prices. The war’s impact on oil, gas and fertiliser markets has already pushed energy costs higher, prompting retailers to urge the UK government to cut...
Gold Tops $4,650 as Weaker Dollar and Iran Peace Hopes Lift Precious Metals
Gold surged past $4,650 an ounce on Wednesday, buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar and growing optimism that Washington and Tehran are moving toward a cease‑fire. The rally was reinforced by a pullback in crude oil prices, which trimmed the...
NAB Calls June RBA Hike to 4.60% as Middle East Inflation Compounds Domestic Pressures
NAB has upgraded its Reserve Bank of Australia outlook, now expecting a June cash‑rate increase to 4.60%, up from the 4.35% set in May. The bank cites a dual‑inflation shock—persistent domestic capacity constraints and a second‑round price impact from the...