Physical Oil Market Does Not Run on Political Timelines
Rystad Energy says a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal is already pushing down oil futures, but physical markets will lag. It estimates a six‑to‑eight‑week gap between credible access to the Strait of Hormuz and a return to 80‑90% of pre‑disruption volumes, with full recovery not expected until July. The update notes China’s changed posture, a U.S. pause on vessel escorts, and the IRGC’s silence as new signals of possible de‑escalation. Fitch maintains its 2026 Brent forecast at $78 per barrel but raises the Dated Brent outlook to $90 if disruptions extend.
Rubio Lands in Italy at Difficult Moment
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Italy as Washington accelerates a fraught realignment with Europe. The administration is pulling thousands of troops from Germany, threatening higher auto tariffs and accusing NATO allies of insufficient support against Iran. President...
VLCC Asset Prices Defy Gravity as Five-Year-Old Tonnage Trades Above Newbuild Contracts
The Hormuz Strait closure has upended conventional tanker pricing, with five‑year‑old VLCCs now commanding $9 million more than a brand‑new vessel from a Korean shipyard. Resale premiums are even steeper, reaching $45.5 million—21 % to 35 % above new‑build prices—for buyers seeking immediate availability....
Raw Cotton Import Duty Withdrawal Essential for Competitiveness of Apparel Sector: Study
The Gherzi and ICAC study urges India to drop the 11% import duty on raw cotton, arguing it puts domestic mills at a competitive disadvantage against duty‑free Asian peers. The report links the duty to a 2.2% drop in textile‑apparel...
Australia’s Interest Rate Rise Signals Growing Hawkish Stance in Asia
On May 5 the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%, marking a third consecutive hike as it wrestles with an energy‑driven inflation surge. Headline inflation rose to 4.6% in March and the trimmed‑mean...
Malaysia’s GDP Grew 5.3% in Q1 as Domestic Activity Supported Economic Growth
Malaysia’s economy expanded 5.3% year‑on‑year in Q1 2026, buoyed by resilient retail trade and manufacturing activity, according to the Department of Statistics. The manufacturing sector posted a 3.9% sales increase to RM159.2 bn (≈$35 bn), while the electrical‑electronics sub‑sector surged 13.8%. External trade...
China’s Exporters Face Test as Yuan Hits 3-Year High Against US Dollar
The People’s Bank of China fixed the yuan’s midpoint at 6.8487 per U.S. dollar on Thursday, its strongest level since April 2023. Analysts expect the currency to continue appreciating, potentially reaching 6.65 per dollar by year‑end, which could strain China’s...
Myanmar’s Military Rulers Hire Trump Ally for US$50,000 a Month to Lobby Washington
Myanmar’s military junta has engaged veteran Trump adviser Roger Stone as a lobbyist, paying him $50,000 a month through DCI Group’s $3 million contract. The effort aims to normalize relations with Washington, soften sanctions, and attract U.S. investment in the country’s...
Capital Reform Push Could Restore Wall Street’s Edge in Global Markets
The Federal Reserve has proposed rolling back capital requirements for the largest U.S. banks, cutting aggregate buffers by roughly 5%. The change aims to free balance‑sheet capacity, allowing banks to expand market‑making and reclaim business lost to non‑bank firms. Analysts...
Stock Market Today: Oil Prices Extend Slide on Hopes of Talks
Oil prices fell about 3% to $98 a barrel as optimism grows over renewed U.S.-Iran talks to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The dip coincided with a retreat in Treasury yields and a weakening dollar, which...
Belarus: Between Washington and Moscow
The Trump administration is pivoting from a policy of isolating Belarus to a limited "reset," releasing 250 political prisoners and lifting sanctions on key potash exporters such as Belaruskali. Washington’s outreach includes high‑level talks, a possible embassy reopening, and permission...
Luis De Guindos: Deepening Financial Integration to Support Europe’s Prosperity
In a May 7, 2026 keynote, ECB Vice‑President Luis de Guindos highlighted the EU’s strides toward deeper financial integration, noting that euro‑area asset‑price gaps have narrowed and cross‑border debt activity has risen. He warned that cross‑border corporate lending remains low at just 14%...
New Zealand Faces ‘Massive Negative Energy Shock’, OECD Warns
The OECD’s 2026 economic review warns New Zealand of a "massive negative energy shock" that could cripple export‑driven industries unless the country dramatically expands renewable electricity generation. It critiques the government’s $1 billion LNG port plan as a short‑term band‑aid that will...
Crunch Time for Japan-Russia as Energy and Security Collide
Japan received a Sakhalin‑2 oil tanker at Taiyo Oil’s Imabari refinery, underscoring its push to diversify energy supplies beyond the Persian Gulf. At the same time, Terra Drone announced a strategic investment in Ukrainian drone maker WinnyLab, expanding Japan’s defence‑technology...
Why Trump’s China Trip Is Set Up to Fail
President Donald Trump is set to visit Beijing amid a fragile cease‑fire with Iran that threatens to derail the trip. The agenda is limited to symbolic photo‑ops and modest trade gestures, such as a soybean purchase that already falls short...
Philippines Urges ASEAN to Strengthen Crisis Coordination Amid Iran War
Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro opened an ASEAN foreign ministers meeting in Cebu on May 7, urging the bloc to bolster crisis coordination as the Iran‑Israel war fuels a global energy crunch. She highlighted the outsized impact of soaring...
Did Japan Raise Yen Intervention Line to 157? Sharp Volatility Draws Speculation
The Japanese yen has been swinging sharply against the dollar even after the Ministry of Finance stepped in to buy yen, a move traditionally aimed at curbing a slide toward ¥160 per $1. Traders now suspect that authorities have not...
Euro Area Financial Integration Improves Despite Persistent Fragmentation, ECB Report Shows
The European Central Bank’s latest financial‑integration report shows that euro‑area markets have become more cohesive since late 2022, driven by falling redenomination risk premia and EU‑wide policy support. Cross‑border holdings of debt securities and interbank lending have risen, enhancing risk sharing...
1973: War in the Middle East Causes Oil Crisis in Britain
In October 1973, Arab nations imposed an oil embargo after the United States air‑lifted $2.2 billion in weapons to Israel, causing global barrel prices to quadruple. Britain, though not formally targeted, responded with a 50 mph speed limit, petrol‑ration cards and saw...
Bank of Thailand Revises Growth Forecast Upward
The Bank of Thailand lifted its 2026 GDP growth projection to 2.1%, up from 1.5%, after the cabinet approved a 400 billion‑baht (about $10.8 billion) emergency borrowing package. The additional funds will finance a consumption‑stimulus scheme and green‑energy projects, including the “Thai...
Reasserting Public Scrutiny Over Indonesia’s Foreign Policy
Indonesia’s foreign policy, especially its partnership with China, has long been a flashpoint for public debate. Under President Jokowi, media scrutiny intensified around Chinese labor and large‑scale infrastructure investments, fueling nationalist and Islamist backlash. By contrast, President Prabowo’s 2024 joint...
Hong Kong Explores Financial Cooperation With Uzbekistan During Tashkent Visit
Hong Kong’s financial services chief Christopher Hui met Uzbek officials in Tashkent to launch talks on gold‑trading links, capital‑market access and a possible double‑taxation treaty. Hong Kong is rolling out a central gold‑clearing system and expanding storage capacity to over...
Malaysia’s Hotline to Tehran
Malaysia’s prime minister Anwar Ibrahim negotiated safe passage for seven Petronas‑chartered tankers, including the Ocean Thunder carrying about a million barrels of Basrah Heavy crude, through the Strait of Hormuz after the Iran‑Israel conflict erupted. The diplomatic win secures a critical...
Why the Rupiah Is Weakening
The Indonesian rupiah has slipped to roughly 17,400 per U.S. dollar, its weakest level ever and below the rates seen during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. A modest $1.5 billion current‑account deficit in 2025, combined with expectations of a wider shortfall...
Thailand Unilaterally Voids Maritime Boundary Agreement With Cambodia
Thailand’s cabinet formally voided the 2001 MoU 44 that set a joint framework for offshore oil and gas exploration with Cambodia in the Gulf of Thailand. The 26,000‑square‑kilometre overlapping claims area is believed to contain significant hydrocarbon reserves, making the agreement...
LEI for South Korea Continued to Rise in March
The Conference Board reported that South Korea’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.7% in March 2026 to 117.1, marking a 3.3% gain over the prior six months—still strong but slower than the 4.1% growth recorded a year earlier. The Coincident...
Cut UK Speed Limits to Reduce Iran War Impact on Consumers, Thinktank Urges
The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) is urging the UK government to impose a 20 mph speed limit in towns and cities and 60 mph on motorways to curb fuel demand sparked by soaring oil prices linked to the Iran conflict....
Why the Shift From Savings Glut to Grab Is Good for Investors
JPMorgan’s Europe‑EMEA chief market strategist argues that the era of a global savings glut is ending and giving way to a "savings grab," where governments and corporations worldwide are racing to spend the capital that once flowed into U.S. bonds....
War and Energy Shortages Boost China’s Influence in Asia
The war in Iran has disrupted oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Asian nations to turn to China for relief. Despite a ban on oil‑product exports, Beijing leveraged its massive crude reserves and decades of clean‑energy investment to...
Warsh Would Be Wise to Listen to Fed Dissenters
Petrol prices have surged from under $3 to over $4.50 per gallon and diesel to $5.60, while fertilizer costs have risen 25‑50%, after the Iran‑linked Strait of Hormuz disruption halted 20% of global oil and gas shipments. The Federal Reserve,...
New 232 Tariffs on Metals May Add Cost and Complexity for Importers
Effective April 6, 2026 President Trump imposed a 50% tariff on semi‑finished aluminum, steel and copper products and a 25% tariff on derivative goods, with a reduced 10% rate for items containing at least 95% U.S.-sourced metal and an exemption for products...
World Bank Predicts Metals Price Rise in 2026
The World Bank projects a 17% rise in global metals and minerals prices in 2026, led by a 22% jump in aluminum and a 42% surge in precious metals. Strong industrial demand and ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East...
Hong Kong Positions Itself as Regional Hub for Metals and Commodity Trading
Hong Kong is positioning itself as a regional hub for metals and commodity trading, leveraging its free‑port status, common‑law legal system and expanding logistics network. The city announced a 50 % profits‑tax concession for eligible commodity‑trading activities and is expanding LME‑approved...
India-UAE-Israel Triangle: Tel Aviv & Abu Dhabi Boost Defense & Economic Ties as New Alliance Bridges The Gulf
The United Arab Emirates and Israel have accelerated their partnership beyond the 2020 Abraham Accords, with bilateral trade soaring to $3.24 bn in 2024 and a target of $5 bn within a few years. Defense collaboration has deepened, highlighted by the sale...
Driver Arrests and Illegal Fees Stall South Sudan Cargo Route
Kenyan transporters have halted loading and dispatch of cargo bound for South Sudan after drivers were arrested and subjected to illegal fees at checkpoints in Yirol West and Lake State. The suspension affects roughly 300 containers per day and over...
Trump Likely to Focus on Trade in Meeting with Xi: Ex-U.S. Defense Official
Former Pentagon official Randall Schriver says President Donald Trump will prioritize trade and economic issues in his upcoming May 14‑15 meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, building on the temporary trade truce reached in Busan last year. The agenda is...
Dollar on Defensive as Markets Hope for Best on Middle East
The U.S. dollar slipped as optimism over a de‑escalation between Iran and the United States buoyed oil‑linked currencies. Brent crude edged up 0.8% after analysts warned the Strait of Hormuz could remain closed, while the euro firmed to $1.1757 and...
Japan’s Nikkei Roars Past 62,000 on Earnings, Middle East Optimism; JGBs Rally
Japan’s Nikkei 225 leapt 4.19% to 62,010 on Thursday, breaking the 62,000 threshold for the first time. The rally was powered by strong earnings from technology firms, especially chip makers buoyed by AMD’s upbeat AI forecast. Simultaneously, Japanese government bonds...
Bloomberg Daybreak Asia: US-Iran Deal Optimism (Podcast)
Asian equities reached record highs as optimism grew that the United States and Iran are nearing a deal to end their conflict. A one‑page memorandum proposes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, while...
Philippines Urges Myanmar to Grant ASEAN Special Envoy Access to Aung San Suu Kyi
The Philippines, chair of ASEAN, urged Myanmar to let the bloc’s special envoy meet Aung San Suu Kyi after her reported transfer from prison to house arrest. Manila welcomed the partial sentence reduction as a confidence‑building step but pressed for brief access to...
Morning Brief Podcast: India's Biggest Trade Partner Is China, Now What?
China has displaced the United States as India’s largest trading partner, pushing total bilateral trade to $151 billion. The shift has driven India’s trade deficit with Beijing to a record $112 billion, highlighting a widening imbalance. Beijing’s new supply‑chain regulations threaten firms...
China Asks Banks to Pause New Loans to US-Sanctioned Refiners
China’s National Financial Regulatory Administration has instructed the nation’s largest banks to temporarily suspend new yuan‑denominated loans to five refiners sanctioned by the United States for alleged Iranian oil ties, including major private player Hengli Petrochemical. The directive allows banks...
Sulphur Shipment Crosses the Strait of Hormuz
The bulk carrier Richsing Lotus, loaded with about 50,000 t of granular sulphur bound for Morocco’s Jorf Lasfar, finally traversed the Strait of Hormuz between May 1‑6 after weeks of delay caused by Iranian and U.S. blockades. AIS data from Kpler shows...
Trade Officials Meet in Bid to Finalise US-Thai Agreement
Thailand’s commerce minister Suphajee Suthumpun met USTR officials Jamieson Greer and Rick Switzer to push the pending Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) toward completion. Both sides described the talks as constructive and agreed to accelerate negotiations to avoid potential US...
Kyodo News Digest: May 7, 2026
The G7 trade ministers pledged to resist economic coercion, targeting China’s export controls on critical minerals, while China urged continued negotiations to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Japan demonstrated its maritime capabilities by firing anti‑ship missiles in the Balikatan...
Hormuz Crisis Shows Gaps in Taiwan’s High-Tech ‘Silicon Shield’
Taiwan’s semiconductor sector, responsible for over half of the world’s advanced‑node chips, consumes roughly 20 % of the island’s electricity, much of it powered by imported liquefied natural gas (LNG). The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in early March halted...
The New Scramble: Turkey, Somalia and the Battle for the Red Sea
Turkey has deepened its partnership with Somalia, moving from humanitarian aid and soft‑power projects to a high‑stakes oil agreement and expanded military presence. In early 2024 Ankara signed a deal that lets Turkish state oil firms recover up to 90%...
When AI Meets Local Debt
Two recent studies examine how AI investment reshapes local borrowing costs, finding opposite effects in the United States and five OECD countries. In U.S. counties, higher AI‑related job postings are linked to lower municipal bond yields, especially for longer‑maturity and...
U.S. and Iran Exchange New Proposals to End War
President Donald Trump told PBS NewsHour that a "very good chance" exists for a U.S.–Iran deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The proposed memorandum of understanding would freeze Iran's uranium enrichment, require export of its...
US Offers Concessions in Renewed Iran Talks, But Is It Enough?
The United States and Iran have exchanged new, consolidated wish lists encapsulated in a one‑page, 14‑point memorandum. The document frames a prospective deal to end the ongoing Middle East conflict, lays groundwork for more detailed nuclear negotiations, and aims to...