World Bank Warning as Energy Prices Set to Soar
The World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook warns that global energy prices will jump 24% in 2026, reaching the highest levels since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Brent crude is projected to average $86 a barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025, as supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz tighten markets. Fertiliser costs are set to rise 31% while metals hit record highs, amplifying inflation pressures in developing economies. The bank estimates up to 45 million additional people could face acute food insecurity this year.
April Review: Markets Advance Through Global Volatility
April’s equity markets surged despite heightened geopolitical risk, with the S&P 500 up 10.4%, the Nasdaq climbing 15.3% and the Dow gaining 7.1%. A cease‑fire between the U.S. and Iran helped steady sentiment, but oil prices stayed above $90 a barrel,...
Resilience Through Volatility
Franklin Templeton’s "Resilience Through Volatility" briefing underscores the firm’s philosophy of navigating turbulent markets with disciplined risk management and ESG‑aware strategies. The material is framed by extensive legal disclosures, emphasizing that the content is not personalized investment advice and that...
Japan Just Put a ‘Band-Aid’ on the Yen. Why High Oil Prices Could Soon Ri...
Japan’s finance ministry and the Bank of Japan launched an estimated $35 billion currency intervention on Thursday, the first of its size in two years, to halt the yen’s slide toward a 40‑year low. The yen rallied 2.4% to settle at...
Oil Marketing Companies Seek LPG, Petrol, Diesel Price Hike as Iran War Deepens Losses
India’s state‑run oil marketing companies are pressing the government to lift retail fuel prices as crude oil spikes above $126 per barrel amid heightened Middle East tensions. Crude prices surged after the U.S. signaled a continued naval blockade of Iran,...
Europe Wants Africa’s Minerals. Africa Should Make It Pay
Europe is intensifying its hunt for critical minerals across Africa to fuel its green and digital transitions, yet the EU’s partnership narrative clashes with a lagging delivery model. The Global Gateway initiative, earmarked at €30 bn ($33 bn) through 2027, has struggled...
S&P Affirms Taiwan's AA+ Rating, Outlook Stable
Credit rating agency S&P Global Ratings has reaffirmed Taiwan's long‑term AA+ and short‑term A‑1+ sovereign ratings, keeping the outlook stable for the next 24 months. The agency highlighted Taiwan's robust external asset position, healthy fiscal metrics and monetary flexibility as...
How Oil Fuels Conflict and War—And Who Profits
An interview with peace scholar Michael Klare underscores how oil remains a central driver of wars, citing the U.S.-Israel conflict over Iran and the strategic choke point of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of world oil and...
Oil Prices Fall as Iran Proposes New US Talks
Oil prices slipped on Friday after Iran signaled a willingness to restart talks with the United States via Pakistan, briefly pushing WTI below $100 a barrel. The dip was short‑lived, with WTI rebounding to $101.7 and Brent to $108.4 as...
The Iran War Proves that U.S. Economic Coercion Is Weakening
The Iran war has exposed the waning power of U.S. economic coercion, as Tehran finds ways around decades‑long sanctions and the United States struggles to enforce its financial pressure. While the conflict has strained global oil markets, higher gasoline prices...
What Will Happen to the State Pension Triple Lock?
The UK’s state‑pension triple lock, introduced in 2011, guarantees annual increases equal to the highest of inflation, wage growth, or 2.5%, lifting the pension from £241.30 a week (≈$306) to £12,548 a year (≈$15,940). Since its inception, nominal pension levels...
How Trump Is Inadvertently Bringing Japan, South Korea Together
Japan and South Korea are accelerating diplomatic coordination as regional volatility rises, driven by concerns over an assertive China, North Korea’s expanding arsenal, and President Donald Trump’s unpredictable U.S. security commitments. High‑level “two‑plus‑two” talks between defense and foreign ministries are...
The Iran War Has Turned the World’s Shipping Straits Into a Chessboard—And the U.S. Aims to Box Out China From...
The United States is leveraging the Iran‑Iran war’s Hormuz blockade to launch a broader geopolitical push against China, targeting key maritime chokepoints from the Panama Canal to the Strait of Malacca. Washington has secured new military partnerships with Indonesia and...
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Crack-Up Boom: Definition, History, Causes, and Examples
The crack‑up boom, a term coined by Ludwig von Mises, describes a collapse of the monetary system triggered by relentless credit expansion and exploding inflation expectations. When central banks continuously inject money to stave off recession, price growth can accelerate into...
Ukraine Is Hitting Oil Facilities Deep Inside Russia. Soaring Fuel Prices Could Blunt the Impact
Ukrainian drones have begun striking oil facilities deep inside Russia, hitting the Tuapse refinery, the Ust‑Luga export terminal and a Perm‑region pumping station. The attacks are designed to curtail Moscow’s oil export revenues, which fund its war effort, and President...
Japan Yen Interventions Face Uphill Battle Against Structural Weakness
Japanese officials stepped into the foreign‑exchange market on Thursday to support the yen after it slipped below ¥160 per dollar for the second time this week. The intervention underscores the limits of short‑term buying as the currency’s decline is driven...
Gold Consolidates in $4,600-$4,800 Range for Almost 2 Months. A Big Rally Brewing in May?
Gold has been confined to a tight $4,600‑$4,800 per ounce band since mid‑March, despite heightened Iran‑related geopolitical risk and strong central‑bank buying. Elevated U.S. Treasury yields, a firm dollar and expectations of prolonged higher rates are suppressing upside, while technicals...
U.S. Lawmakers Propose China Threat Resolution Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit
U.S. senators from both parties introduced a bipartisan resolution warning that China’s expanding military and coercive tactics threaten Taiwan and U.S. national security. The measure calls for heightened Indo‑Pacific deterrence, protection of American workers from unfair Chinese practices, and continued...
The World’s Central Banks Are Wrestling with a Gigantic Problem
Global central banks are holding steady on short‑term rates as an Iran‑related energy shock fuels a rare stagflation mix of rising inflation and slowing growth. The Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Bank of England all chose...
Underestimate at Your Peril — Hormuz Chokes Tropical Hardwood Supply
The February 28 closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a severe diesel shortage in Malaysia and Indonesia, pushing industrial diesel prices up 140% and crippling the region’s tropical hardwood supply chain. Logging concessions, log carriers and sawmills are...
Donroe Doctrine Is Becoming Everything China Feared
The U.S. State Department, joined by Panama and five Latin American nations, issued a joint statement denouncing recent detentions of Panama‑flagged ships at Chinese ports and accusing China of politicizing maritime trade. The declaration is part of a broader law‑fare...
India's Consumption Stands Its Ground Amid Gulf War Tremors
India’s consumption engine kicked off the fiscal year with record GST collections of ₹2.43 lakh crore (≈ $29 billion), an 8.7% year‑on‑year rise, while passenger‑car sales jumped 25% to 445,417 units in April. Digital payments via UPI surged 21% to ₹29 lakh crore (≈ $350 billion), underscoring robust...
Fuel Spike Is Coming: Relief at Bowser Not Tipped to Last
Australia’s regional oil benchmark Tapis crude surged to US$125 a barrel, the highest level since the 2022 Ukraine war, prompting expectations of higher pump prices. After a brief two‑week respite following a US‑Iran cease‑fire, fuel prices are set to climb...
Tesla Launches Model 3 RWD in Canada at Record-Low $39,490 ($29,000 USD) From China
Tesla introduced a Model 3 Premium RWD in Canada for $39,490 CAD (about $29,000 USD), the lowest price ever for the sedan in the market. The price advantage stems from sourcing the car from Giga Shanghai after Canada reduced its tariff on Chinese...
April: Rebound in Stocks, Carry in Bonds (E260)
In April, U.S. equities staged a strong rebound after March’s war‑related sell‑off, while investment‑grade bonds delivered a modest positive carry despite higher yields. Emerging‑market debt outperformed other credit segments with a 2.7% return, and commodities, led by energy, rose on...
UAE Exits OPEC: What Forced the West Asian Nation to Junk the Oil Cartel Amid the US-Iran War? Explained
The United Arab Emirates announced on May 1, 2026 that it will leave OPEC, ending its participation in the cartel’s production‑quota system. Analysts say the move is a pre‑planned shift driven by a mismatch between the UAE’s 4.8 million‑barrel‑per‑day capacity and the 3.2 million‑bpd...
US LNG Exports to Asia Surged in April as Middle East Conflict Curtailed Supply
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Asia surged in April, with shipments climbing to 2.71 million tonnes—up 175% from February—after Middle‑East supply was disrupted by the Iran conflict. Asian spot LNG prices stayed high, averaging $17.92 per MMBtu, roughly 17%...
Oil Falls on Hopes for US-Iran Negotiations, Hormuz Progress
Oil slipped to around $102 per barrel on Friday as US‑Iran peace talks remain tenuous, even though West Texas Intermediate posted an 8% weekly gain. Traders trimmed risk amid thin volumes and global market holidays, while the ongoing de‑facto closure...
US Citrus Imports Would Not Affect Domestic Supply
Taiwan's agriculture ministry says U.S. tangerine imports, averaging 1,115 tonnes a year, represent only about 1% of domestic consumption and will not disrupt the local citrus market. Imports arrive from March to May, a period that does not coincide with Taiwan's...
MOFA Speaks Out About Threats in China-US Call
Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) voiced concern after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned the United States during a call with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The remarks came ahead of a high‑profile US‑China summit scheduled for May 14‑15 between President Donald Trump...
The Macroeconomic Consequences of Undermining Central Bank Independence: Evidence From Governor Transitions
Recent research covering 132 central‑bank governor transitions across 28 economies finds that 38% of changes are politically motivated, especially in emerging markets. Politically driven appointments, particularly those with unorthodox monetary views, lead to lower short‑term interest rates, a short‑run GDP...
News Wrap: Trump Announces 25% Tariffs on Cars and Trucks From the EU
President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on cars and trucks imported from the European Union, accusing the bloc of violating a trade agreement reached last summer. The move escalates a dispute that began after the EU’s 15% levy on...
‘A Lot of Money to Be Made:’ How Canada's Food and Beverage Companies Can Grow Outside the U.S.
Canadian food and beverage exporters are rethinking their heavy reliance on the United States as the CUSMA trade pact heads for renegotiation. A panel at SIAL Canada highlighted the need to explore new markets, with Export Development Canada (EDC) focusing...
Crude Tankers Decline Despite Yanbu Demand
Crude shipments from Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port surged to roughly 4‑4.2 million barrels per day in April, compensating for a steep drop in Middle‑East Gulf loadings that fell to 1.8‑1.9 million b/d after the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict halted Hormuz traffic. Despite the Yanbu...
Iran War Shakes Global Economy as Energy Costs Surge and Recession Fears Grow
In just over nine weeks, the Iran war has sent shockwaves through the global economy, driving up oil and gas prices and igniting inflationary pressures worldwide. Countries that rely on Gulf imports—such as Sri Lanka, Mexico, the United Kingdom and...
It Now Costs $160 to Fill up America’s Top-Selling Vehicle as the Iran War Nears Its 10th Week
Gasoline prices have surged to four‑year highs since the Iran war began, reaching $4.42 per gallon nationally. At that price, filling a new Ford F‑150, America’s best‑selling vehicle, costs about $160. The price jump represents a nearly 50% increase in nine...
Exxon Mobil CEO Sees ‘More to Come’ on Price Spikes From Iran War as Exxon, Chevron Beat on Earnings Despite...
Exxon Mobil and Chevron posted first‑quarter earnings that beat analysts’ forecasts, yet both saw net income plunge year‑over‑year as early‑year price weakness and Middle‑East disruptions hit results. CEOs Darren Woods and Mike Wirth warned that if the Strait of Hormuz...
Philippine Banks Keep Lending Rules Unchanged Despite War Impact
A quarterly survey of senior loan officers shows that most Philippine banks will keep lending standards unchanged in Q2 2026 for both business and household loans. About 61.5% of banks see business loan criteria staying the same, while 65.7% expect no...
CFOs Flag Tariff Refunds, Led by Ford’s $1.3B Claim
Ford and General Motors have disclosed sizable potential tariff refunds in their Q1 earnings calls, with Ford reporting a $1.3 billion benefit and GM anticipating $500 million. The refunds stem from tariffs struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court, and U.S. Customs...
Will the Next Fed Chairman Be More Compliant With Trump?
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and Trump ally, is poised to become Federal Reserve chair. His background as a market‑fixer during the 2008 crisis and ties to Republican circles contrast with his hawkish stance on inflation. Warsh has pledged...
U.S. Targets Iran–China Oil Pipeline in Dual Sanctions Move on Shipping and Finance
The United States announced a dual‑pronged sanctions package that hits a China‑based oil terminal, Qingdao Haiye Oil Terminal Co., for handling tens of millions of barrels of Iranian crude since early 2025, and three Iranian currency‑exchange houses that convert oil...
Dollar Set for Sharp Weekly Loss versus Yen After Japan Steps In
The dollar is on track for its steepest weekly decline against the yen since February, slipping about 1.7% as Japan reportedly intervened to buy yen when the pair hit 160.7 per dollar. Authorities may have spent up to ¥5.48 trillion (roughly...
Art Trade Adjusting After US Supreme Court Struck Down Trump's Extreme Tariffs
The U.S. Supreme Court declared President Trump’s sweeping emergency tariffs unconstitutional, reaffirming that only Congress can set import duties. Hours later Trump re‑imposed 10‑15% tariffs under a different emergency statute, prompting lawsuits from 22 states and industry groups. A federal...
Trump’s Economic Fury Strikes Again as US Sanctions Chinese Oil Terminal over Iran Imports
The U.S. State Department has imposed sanctions on a Chinese oil terminal and two Chinese ship‑management firms to tighten pressure on Iran’s oil exports. The action coincides with President Donald Trump’s public disappointment in Iran’s latest peace proposal and follows...
Trump Says He Will Hike Tariffs on EU Cars to 25%
President Donald Trump announced a hike in tariffs on cars and trucks imported from the European Union, raising the rate to 25% effective next week. The move reverses the 15% ceiling established in the 2023 US‑EU trade agreement negotiated at...
Oil Falls on Hopes for US-Iran Negotiations, Hormuz Progress
Oil prices slipped as West Texas Intermediate dropped up to 5.5% before stabilizing near $102 per barrel, reflecting thin trading ahead of Labor Day holidays. Ongoing US‑Iran negotiations remain deadlocked, with both sides maintaining a de‑facto blockade of the Strait...
Descartes Report Describes Tumultuous Year at U.S. Ports
The 2026 Descartes Datamyne Port Report shows U.S. maritime imports held steady in 2025, with total containerized volume flat at roughly 28.09 million TEUs, a marginal 0.03% decline from the prior year. Trade volatility, driven by fluctuating U.S.-China tariffs that peaked...
KBRA Releases Research – The Forward Look—European and UK Credit Views: Q2 2026
KBRA’s Q2 2026 European and UK Credit Views report, authored by macro strategist Gordon Kerr, examines how the Iran‑Hormuz conflict and rising commodity prices are reshaping Europe’s credit outlook. The analysis highlights heightened stagflation risks, delayed growth recovery, and tighter...
Shift in the Middle East Has Implications for Countries Like Australia
The United Arab Emirates announced it will leave OPEC, marking a dramatic break with its Gulf neighbours and underscoring a new strategic direction. UAE diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash warned that Gulf policies toward Iran have failed and called for a...
DRC Copper Exports to US Set to Surge Amid Warnings of Corruption Risk
The Democratic Republic of the Congo plans to export 500,000 metric tons of copper to the United States, a five‑fold increase from its January commitment. The surge aligns with Washington’s push to diversify away from Chinese‑sourced copper, even as the...