India-UK FTA Likely by May, EU Pact Expected by Year-End: Texprocil
India’s free‑trade agreement with the United Kingdom is slated to take effect on 1 May 2024, while a parallel pact with the European Union is expected to be sealed by the end of the year, according to Texprocil. Both deals aim to slash tariffs that have long constrained Indian exporters, especially in textiles. Minister Piyush Goyal highlighted that the agreements are part of a broader push that already gives Indian firms preferential access to 38 developed markets. The timeline signals a rapid move toward deeper market integration for Indian manufacturers.
The Foundations for Growth and Competitiveness
The OECD’s 2026 Foundations for Growth and Competitiveness report warns that labour productivity has stalled across member economies, driven by weak business investment, slowing technology diffusion and lagging human‑capital accumulation. At the same time, rapid advances in artificial intelligence and...
Fuel Surcharges Give Rates to US a Boost – with More to Come
Ocean carriers have begun applying emergency fuel surcharges to U.S. shipments, pushing spot rates higher across major lanes. The World Container Index showed Shanghai‑Los Angeles rates rise 9% to $2,910 per 40 ft and Shanghai‑New York up 7% to $3,671. The most striking...
Morning Reads
Iran is now demanding a $2 million toll per very large crude carrier transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with payment required within seconds via Bitcoin to evade sanctions. Scans show only a handful of tankers have passed the chokepoint, underscoring a...
Russian Plan to Ban Foreign Carriers May Be ‘Symbolic’ Gesture
The Kremlin is drafting a decree that would bar major foreign container carriers—CMA CGM, Maersk, OOCL and X‑Press Feeders—from calling at Russian ports. The move comes after years of sanctions‑driven pull‑outs, leaving MSC as the sole major liner with two services...
Box Volumes Surge, but Instability Casts a Shadow
Global container volumes jumped to 15.04 m TEU in February, a 12‑13% year‑on‑year increase that outpaced the five‑year average despite the Chinese New Year lull. The surge coincided with a four‑point drop in the CTS Global Price Index to 74, suggesting...
DGFT Rolls Out Procedure for Allocation of Calcined Coke
The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) has issued a detailed procedure for allocating imports of calcined petroleum coke (CPC) for the aluminium sector in fiscal year 2026‑27. Applications are now open, and allocations will be based on the recommendations...
How to Keep the Strait of Hormuz Open in the Long Term
The United States and Iran announced a cease‑fire on April 7, temporarily reopening the Strait of Hormuz after a month‑long closure that began on March 2. Iran, which has been laying sea mines and demanding transit fees, will manage passage for a...
EU, US Near Critical Minerals Pact to Counter China’s Grip
The European Union and the United States are close to finalising a critical‑minerals pact that would coordinate production, pricing and supply‑chain resilience to curb reliance on China. The draft action plan proposes minimum‑price mechanisms, joint standards, and investment projects, while...
Iran Confusion Makes the Case for Causal Modelling
Risk managers are grappling with the tangled uncertainties of the Iran‑US conflict, where traditional scenario testing—relying on past crises—fails to capture the unique dynamics of oil prices and prolonged infrastructure damage. Alexander Denev showed that Anthropic’s Claude LLM can construct...
Fund Investors Hit By War Shock In First Quarter
U.S. diversified stock funds recorded a 2.7% loss in Q1 2026, the steepest decline since 2022, as oil prices surged above $100 per barrel amid the U.S.–Iran conflict. The S&P 500 fell 4.3% and the Nasdaq dropped 6.96%, while the Dow held...
Europe Braces for a Spike in Inflation
Investors are betting that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will raise interest rates this year as Europe confronts a fresh inflation surge. Natural‑gas prices have jumped roughly 40 % since February, driven by the U.S.–Israeli strikes on...
Nigeria’s Poverty Crisis Deepens as 140 Million Struggle Despite Easing Inflation
The World Bank’s April 2026 Nigeria Development Update reveals that poverty surged to 63 percent in 2025, affecting roughly 140 million people. Despite a modest slowdown in inflation, real wages and household purchasing power remained flat, underscoring a disconnect between macro‑economic stabilization...
Iran’s Impact on Markets: Where There Is Volatility, There Is Opportunity
François Collet, CIO of DNCA, says the Iran conflict will act as a short‑term inflationary shock, lifting European inflation expectations above 3% and keeping U.S. inflation near 3.25% over the next year. He forecasts GDP growth could be trimmed by 10‑30...
Taiwan Opposition Leader Calls for ‘Reconciliation’ After Meeting Xi
Opposition leader Cheng Li‑wun met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, becoming the highest‑ranking Taiwanese official to hold a face‑to‑face dialogue with Beijing since President Ma Ying‑jeou’s 2015 meeting. Both leaders reiterated opposition to Taiwan independence and framed the dispute as a cultural‑historical...
European Drinks Firms Urge India to Ease Import Duties Amid Supply Fears
European drinks firms, represented by the Federation of European Business in India, have asked the Indian government to temporarily remove a 10% import duty on glass bottles and aluminium cans. The request follows a surge in packaging costs—glass prices up...
Global Growth to Slow to 3.2% in 2026, Amid Largest Energy Shock on Record Due to West Asia Crisis: S&P...
S&P Global now projects global GDP growth slowing to 3.2 percent in 2026, down from 3.4 percent in 2025, as the West Asia conflict generates the largest recorded energy shock. Disruptions to oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to...
India's Remittances to Reach Record $140 Billion in FY26: SBI Research
India’s inbound remittances are projected to hit $137‑140 bn in FY26, a record level, before leveling off at $135‑137 bn in FY27. The surge, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions in West Asia, follows $110 bn received through December, up from $100 bn a year...
Strait of Hormuz Control Key to Iran’s Deterrence Strategy
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has formalized control over the Strait of Hormuz, requiring vessel‑by‑vessel clearance and tolls paid in Chinese yuan or cryptocurrency. The move leaves roughly 175 fully‑laden tankers—about 150 million barrels of crude and products—stranded in the Arabian...
Markets Look Past US-Iran Tensions with Inflation, Bank Profits in Focus
U.S. equity futures were flat as investors weighed renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, but broader market forces kept activity elevated. Traders await a CPI report expected to show a headline inflation spike, while Wall Street’s biggest banks are positioned for record equity‑trading...
Five Things to Know About the Planned Iran-US Talks in Islamabad
Pakistan will host indirect Iran‑U.S. talks aimed at extending the two‑week cease‑fire that began on April 8 after U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Iran’s supreme leader. The cease‑fire has kept the Strait of Hormuz partially closed, inflating global energy prices. Washington’s...
World Shares Mostly Higher, Oil Gains Ahead of Planned US-Iran Ceasefire Talks
World equity markets rose on Friday, echoing Wall Street gains as investors priced in optimism around upcoming US‑Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad. Asian indexes led the rally, with South Korea’s Kospi up 1.4% and Japan’s Nikkei jumping 1.8%, while Fast...
World Food Programme Warns Lebanon Facing Food Security Crisis Due to Iran War
The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warned that Lebanon is slipping into a food‑security crisis as the Iran‑U.S. conflict disrupts supply lines. More than 80% of markets in the south have shut down, while Beirut’s markets face soaring prices...
WTTC Report Highlights Cruise Tourism as a Powerful Force for Global Communities
The World Travel & Tourism Council’s new "Cruising for Impact" report quantifies cruise tourism’s economic heft, noting a $98.5 billion contribution to global GDP and $199 billion in total output for 2024. The sector supported 1.8 million jobs and paid $60.1 billion in wages,...
Taiwan’s Trade Growth Smashes All Forecasts, Lifting the 2026 Growth Outlook
Taiwan’s March trade data showed exports soaring 61.8% year‑on‑year and imports rising 38.3%, far outpacing analysts’ expectations. The surge was driven by an 81.9% jump in machinery and electrical equipment shipments, especially a 134.5% rise in information‑communication‑audio‑video products. Export prices...
Consumer Spending, Engine of the U.S. Economy, Is Under Strain
Higher fuel prices are pushing grocery, travel and other everyday costs upward, while a jittery stock market is dampening discretionary spending. Consumer spending, which fuels about two‑thirds of U.S. economic output, has kept the economy out of recession despite five...
Topsy-Turvy Trade: Top U.S. Deficit With 3 Countries In Last 4 Months
The United States posted its three largest monthly trade deficits in the past four months with Taiwan, Mexico and Vietnam, pushing China to fourth place. In February, the deficit with Taiwan reached $17.04 billion, slightly ahead of Mexico’s $15.40 billion and Vietnam’s...
Same Old Story for Shippers, Asked to Recover From Steep Fuel Surcharges Again
U.S. diesel prices surged to an average $5.64 per gallon in April, up from $3.76 before the U.S.-Israel conflict, pushing fuel costs for truckers and freight carriers higher. The spike inflates per‑mile operating expenses, squeezes carrier margins and fuels broader...
Global Businesses Increasingly Concerned About Geopolitical Impact on Supply Chains – Study
A new Allianz Trade Global Survey shows 65% of exporters now rank geopolitics as their primary business risk, up from 54% a year earlier. Supply‑chain complexity costs have surged to $4.7 trillion, more than double the 2017 figure, driven largely by...
Australia to Underwrite Refiners' Spot Fuel Trades
Australia’s Export Finance Australia (EFA) will underwrite spot‑market fuel and crude oil purchases for refiners Viva Energy and Ampol, reducing financial risk and enabling access to otherwise uncommercial cargoes. The government can direct the additional fuel to regions facing tighter...
Iran Ceasefire: Not an Off-Ramp for the US but a Life-Saving Ejection Seat
A Pakistan‑mediated two‑week ceasefire between the United States, Israel and Iran has been accepted, marking the first time a Middle Eastern nation forced the US‑Israel axis to negotiate on Tehran’s terms. The deal pivots negotiations to Iran’s 10‑point plan, replacing...
The Oil Market Faces a Major Reckoning if US-Iran Peace Talks Fail
Oil futures on the NYMEX are trading below $100 per barrel, while spot prices for immediate delivery to Asia and the Middle East sit between $126 and $140. The $30‑$40 premium reflects supply constraints caused by Iran’s restriction of the...
Tanker with Russian Flag Transits Hormuz
A Russian‑flagged VLCC named Arhimeda transited the Strait of Hormuz, one of only four tankers flying Moscow’s colors. The supertanker, built in 2000, headed westward toward Iran’s Kharg Island before listing “for orders,” indicating no fixed next call. Its recent...
Stocks Waver With Shaky Cease-Fire in Focus
Investors await the March CPI report, which economists expect to show a 0.9% monthly rise and a 3.3% year‑over‑year increase—the steepest annual gain since May 2024. Brent crude has climbed nearly 2% to above $97 a barrel, keeping inflation pressures high....
Valuations Turn Attractive as Markets Look Beyond Uncertainty: A Balasubramanian
A Balasubramanian, MD & CEO of ABSL AMC, says Indian equities have slipped into a valuation sweet spot as geopolitical tensions ease and macro signals improve. The Nifty now trades below its long‑term average P/E, while credit and deposit growth are rebounding after...
How Energy Market Swings Are Reshaping Monetary Policy
Energy market turbulence is reverberating across the financial system, with crude‑oil price swings reigniting inflation worries and driving Treasury volatility to its highest level since the 2025 Liberation Day rally. The surge in Treasury convexity signals heightened directional uncertainty, forcing...
Peter Kyle Touts US Opportunities as OpenAI Pauses UK Investment
British Business Secretary Peter Kyle highlighted a "really great economic set of opportunities" between the United States and the United Kingdom, pointing to roughly $300 bn (£223 bn) of ongoing tech‑related commercial activity. He announced a trade mission that will send about...
Commodities: Oil Supported By Ongoing Supply Risks
Oil prices rose for a second consecutive session as fresh supply‑risk concerns in the Middle East kept Brent near $96 per barrel. Attacks on Saudi and Kuwaiti infrastructure have tightened the market, preserving a geopolitical risk premium despite cease‑fire talks....
Middle East Shock Hits Global Growth and Prices
Global business activity slowed sharply in March as the Middle East war dented demand, confidence and supply chains. The J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI fell to 51.0, its weakest reading in 11 months, while new orders hit a 28‑month low and...
Taiwan Sees only Warships and Warplanes as China Talks Peace with Opposition
Taiwan reported an unprecedented surge of Chinese naval activity, with nearly 100 navy and coast‑guard vessels operating around the island this week, far above the usual 50‑60 ships. The buildup coincides with Beijing’s peace overtures to opposition leader Cheng Li‑wun, who...
Myanmar’s Coup Leader Min Aung Hlaing Sworn in as President
Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who seized power in Myanmar’s 2021 coup, was sworn in as president after a landslide vote by the pro‑military parliament. In his inauguration, he claimed the country is returning to democracy while pledging to improve...
US Isn’t Losing Soft Power in SE Asia — It’s Ceding It to China
The United States’ soft‑power advantage in Southeast Asia is eroding, not because of a structural collapse, but due to deliberate policy cuts and a shift toward Christian‑nationalist messaging that resonates poorly in the region. Data from the Brand Finance Global...
Splash Wrap: Fragile Hormuz Ceasefire Fails to Lift Traffic
A tentative U.S.-Iran cease‑fire has not restored traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving vessel movements at a near‑standstill. Meanwhile, Exmar is set to receive the world’s first ammonia‑powered gas carriers, a 46,000 cu m pair built by Hyundai Heavy Industries. Panama...
US-Iran Ceasefire Eases Oil Prices but Gulf Economies Showing Strain – Oxford Economics
A two‑week US‑Iran cease‑fire announced on April 7 triggered a 13% drop in Brent crude, pulling prices to about $93 per barrel. Oxford Economics still expects a two‑month closure of the Strait of Hormuz followed by lingering disruptions, forecasting a 0.8%...
‘We Owe It to the Next Generation’ to Get National Debt Under Control, Says Think-Tank Boss, as U.S. Borrowing Hits...
The Congressional Budget Office reports a $1.17 trillion deficit for the first six months of FY2026, pushing total federal debt past $39 trillion. Interest obligations alone exceed $1 trillion this year, while $1.7 trillion of outlays are tied to mandatory programs such as Social...
Is Australia at Risk of a Recession? Here’s What the Data Actually Shows
Australia’s economy is not in recession, but growth is decelerating. Real GDP expanded 2.6% year‑on‑year in the December quarter, the strongest pace in nearly three years, while more recent indicators show weakening consumer confidence, a 0.5% drop in household spending...
After Talking the Talk, It Is Time for US (and Iran) to Walk the Walk
President Trump declared a two‑week ceasefire contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sparking a flurry of diplomatic back‑and‑forth. Tehran confirmed the truce but insists on a 10‑point proposal, while Washington negotiates on a 15‑point framework, accusing Iran of...
India Eyes 20 More Countries for Open Market Access in Next Big Trade Bet
India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal announced that the government is negotiating free‑trade agreements with at least 20 additional countries, adding to the nine FTAs signed in the past 3½ years that already cover 38 developed nations. The new round targets...
What Are the Main Events for Today?
The European session will feature only low‑tier releases—Swiss consumer confidence and Italian industrial production—so market impact is expected to be muted. Meanwhile, U.S. and Iran delegations are traveling to Islamabad to begin peace talks that could influence global economic stability....
Middle East Producers Gear Up for Hormuz Export Restart
Middle Eastern producers are urging Asian refiners to submit crude loading programmes for April and May as they prepare for a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A two‑week U.S.-Iran ceasefire raised hopes of resuming shipments, but Tehran has...