Mortgage Rates Surge to Nearly Four-Week High as Iran Headlines Impact Markets
Mortgage rates climbed to a four‑week peak of 6.45% on Wednesday, the highest level since April 3. The surge followed President Trump’s announcement to maintain a naval blockade of Iran until a nuclear deal is reached, pushing oil prices and 10‑year Treasury yields higher. Despite the rate increase, mortgage applications to buy a home rose 21% year‑over‑year, indicating strong buyer interest. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep policy unchanged at its upcoming meeting.
U.S. Economy Rebounded in the First Quarter of 2026
U.S. real GDP expanded at a 2.0% annualized rate in Q1 2026, rebounding sharply from a 0.5% gain in Q4 2025. The surge was anchored by a resurgence in federal non‑defense spending and a 17.2% jump in business equipment investment driven by...
China Voices ‘Serious Concern’ over US Trade Curbs in Talks with Bessent, Greer
Chinese Vice‑Premier He Lifeng held a video conference with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. The three officials engaged in candid discussions on economic and trade issues, with China expressing serious concern over recent U.S....
MacroVoices #530 Daniel Lacalle: China and The Us Will Decide The Outcome of The Iran War
Chief Economist Daniel Lacalle told MacroVoices that the outcome of the Iran war will ultimately be decided by the strategic choices of China and the United States. He warned that the collapse of Iran's negotiations has already rattled oil markets...
Ministers Agree to Address Steel Tariff Threat
The UK government will slash steel import quotas by 60% and raise the tariff on imported steel to 50% starting 1 July, a move that could double material costs for construction firms. After industry backlash, the Construction Leadership Council and the...
Iranian Ports Could Be Blockaded for ‘Months,’ Says Trump
President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports could continue for months, as oil prices surged above $126 per barrel. The White House told oil executives the blockade would persist if needed, while U.S. Central Command readied...
US Deep-Sea Mining Policy Is Eroding Its Pacific Partnerships
The United States declared deep‑sea mining a national priority in 2025 and, through Executive Order 14285 and NOAA’s accelerated permitting, launched the $12 billion Project Vault. Instead of working through the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and the...
No Force Can Break Eswatini, Taiwan Ties: Special Royal Envoy
Eswatini’s special envoy Thulisile Dladla met Taiwan President Lai Ching‑te in Taipei, reaffirming a 58‑year diplomatic bond that Beijing has tried to erode. The meeting followed the abrupt cancellation of Lai’s planned trip after China pressured Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar to...
DRC Mineral Export Prices Rise Sharply as Key Metals Gain on Global Markets
Export prices for the Democratic Republic of Congo’s mineral portfolio surged between April 27 and May 2, 2026. Gold rose to $155.28 per gram and copper to $13,177.50 per ton, while Germanium jumped 32 percent to $8,208 per kilogram. Tin and aluminum also...
Israel Rejects Ukraine Stolen Grain After EU Sanctions Warning
Israel’s Grain Importers Association refused entry to the Russian‑flagged vessel Panormitis, which was transporting about 6,000 tonnes of wheat valued at $7 million from occupied Ukrainian fields. The move came after the European Union warned Israeli companies that participation in the...
A New Economics for the 21st Century
The World Bank announced a reversal of its long‑standing opposition to industrial policy, signaling a new openness to government‑led economic strategies. The shift comes ahead of the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings and reflects growing acknowledgment of evidence that...
Ontario Strikes Back With 10-Year Forest Roadmap to Reduce US Dependence
Ontario unveiled a 10‑year Roadmap to Protecting its Forest Sector, a defend‑adapt‑grow plan designed to safeguard roughly $15.5 billion USD in annual revenue and 154,000 jobs from soaring U.S. duties that have pushed export penetration to 45.16%. The strategy targets three...
Mark Carney’s Sovereign Wealth Fund Is a Throwback to a Harder-Working Canada
Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Canada’s first national sovereign wealth fund, the Canada Strong Fund, with an initial $18.5 bn (CA$25 bn) endowment. The fund will be run by an independent Crown corporation and will focus on domestic infrastructure such as mining,...
Why the U.A.E. Is Quitting OPEC
The United Arab Emirates announced it will leave OPEC in May 2026, opting to set its own oil‑production policy. The decision comes as the regional war with Iran creates a strategic opening for the Emirates to operate independently. Analysts see...
GITEX Unveils Expansion Into Kenya with Inaugural 2026 Edition Set to Unlock US$2.4 Billion AI-Driven Economic Potential
GITEX, organized by KAOUN International, will launch its first Kenyan edition, Ai Everything Kenya x GITEX Kenya, in Nairobi from May 19‑21, 2026. The event is projected to unlock $2.4 billion of AI‑driven GDP growth for Kenya by 2030 and create...
Wine Industry Welcomes Zero-Tariff Access to China Market
South African wine bodies South Africa Wine and Wines of South Africa announced that China will apply a zero‑tariff regime to qualifying South African wine exports starting 1 May 2026. The tariff‑free status lasts for two years, expiring 1 May 2028, giving the sector...
Watch: How Energy, China and Geopolitics Are Reshaping the Eurozone’s Goods Surplus
ING chief economist Bert Colijn warns that the eurozone’s long‑standing goods trade surplus is entering a more volatile phase. Rising energy costs, a slowdown in Chinese demand and heightened geopolitical tensions are eroding export margins, especially in Germany, Italy and the...
Taiwan's Q1 GDP Growth Hits 13.69%, Highest in 39 Years
Taiwan’s economy surged 13.69% year‑on‑year in Q1 2026, the fastest expansion since 1987, driven by a 35.25% jump in AI‑related exports. Real imports rose 27.07% as manufacturers stocked raw materials, while private consumption grew 4.89% thanks to a government cash‑handout...
Pakistan Moves Toward a Sea-Denial Strategy
Pakistan’s navy has accelerated its sea‑denial posture by testing a 600 km range Taimoor air‑launched cruise missile, a 450 km P282 SMASH anti‑ship ballistic missile launched from a corvette, and the LY‑80(N) surface‑to‑air system. These weapons add precision strike and defensive layers...
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Lithuania Should Join US Coalition in Strait of Hormuz, President Says
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda announced he will present a U.S. proposal for Lithuania to join a Hormuz Strait navigation‑restoration coalition to the State Defence Council. The move follows a State Department cable urging allies to help safeguard freedom of navigation...
How Markets Have Responded to Military Action Against Iran : Tracking Crude Oil Prices and Volatility with FRED
The U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iranian nuclear and military sites on February 28, 2026, catching oil markets off guard. Immediate tanker disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz on March 1 caused Brent and WTI prices, along with the VIX, to...
Official Statistics: Database of Forecasts for the UK Economy
The UK Treasury has released two public databases that compile independent monthly forecasts for key macro‑economic and fiscal indicators. The first database aggregates forecasters’ predictions into average series for six core metrics—GDP, CPI, RPI, RPI‑ex‑MI, public‑sector net borrowing and claimant...
What Did BoC, Fed Meetings Tell Us About the Path Ahead for Interest Rates?
The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve both left policy rates unchanged, maintaining a 1.25‑percentage‑point gap. Each central bank faces distinct challenges: the U.S. enjoys solid growth but wrestles with sticky inflation, while Canada grapples with weaker GDP...
Core Inflation Rate Hit 3.2% in March
The Commerce Department reported that the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% in March, pushing the 12‑month core inflation rate to 3.2%. Including food and energy, the overall CPI climbed 0.7% month‑over‑month and 3.5% year‑over‑year. First‑quarter GDP...
Japanese Travelers to China Drastically Decrease Amid Diplomatic Row
Japanese outbound travel to China has collapsed, falling about 90% since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s November remarks linking Japan to a potential Taiwan conflict. The sharp decline, driven by mass booking cancellations and airline flight cuts, coincides with a reciprocal...
India’s Critical Mineral Imports Remain Concentrated, Need Diversification: IEEFA
India’s critical mineral imports remain heavily concentrated, exposing supply‑chain risks as the country pushes its renewable‑energy agenda. A briefing by IEEFA highlights that five key minerals—cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium and nickel—are dominated by a handful of source nations. Chile, Tanzania...
How Powell Just Complicated Trump’s Fed Plans
Jay Powell announced he will stay on as Federal Reserve chair beyond his term expiration next month, delaying the transition to President Trump’s preferred successor. Trump and his pick, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, have been pushing for aggressive rate...
China’s Economy: By the Numbers
Moody’s confirmed China’s sovereign A1 rating and shifted its outlook from Negative to Stable, joining Fitch and S&P in affirming the country’s creditworthiness. Official data show Q1 2026 GDP growth at 5% year‑on‑year, nominal GDP around $20.85 trillion, and inflation easing...
ECB Keeps Rates on Hold Amid Rising Stagflationary Pressures
The European Central Bank left its policy rate unchanged as stagflationary pressures mount in the eurozone. The ECB highlighted rising headline inflation alongside weaker growth prospects, but offered no clear forward guidance. Recent data show modest Q1 GDP growth, higher...
Monetary Policy Decisions
On 30 April 2026 the ECB Governing Council kept its three key rates unchanged – the deposit facility at 2.00 %, the main refinancing operation at 2.15 % and the marginal lending facility at 2.40 %. The council said inflation remains near its 2 % target...
Why Bank Kept Interest Rates on Hold Despite Message for UK to Brace Itself for Trumpflation
The Bank of England left its policy rate unchanged despite inflation now expected to peak above 3.5% by year‑end, a level a full percentage point higher than pre‑war forecasts. A worst‑case oil‑price scenario of $130 a barrel could drive inflation...
An Economic Model for Securing Hormuz
With roughly one‑quarter of global seaborne oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, recent disruptions have highlighted the fragility of the world’s energy supply chain. The authors contend that a military solution to a potential closure is unlikely to succeed...
Australia’s Foreign Minister Makes Critical Visits to Northeast Asia
Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong embarked on a three‑nation tour of Japan, South Korea and China to shore up fuel supplies amid a Middle‑East oil disruption. The trip highlighted Australia’s heavy reliance on Asian refineries for refined fuels while leveraging...
Tiff Macklem: Release of the Monetary Policy Report
The Bank of Canada kept its policy interest rate at 2.25% for the second consecutive meeting, citing persistent inflation risks from higher global energy prices. Inflation rose to 2.4% in March, driven by gasoline and food costs, while core inflation...
Why Mozambique Gas Is Essential to Global Energy Security
The Mozambique LNG project restarted in January, adding 13 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of export capacity and a domestic supply of 400 billion cubic feet per day. Its offshore fields in the Rovuma Basin ship gas directly from the Indian Ocean,...
Webinar: Asia’s Energy Shock - Who Is Most Exposed?
ING is hosting a 30‑minute webinar on May 7 to dissect Asia’s exposure to the recent oil supply shock through the Strait of Hormuz. The session, led by Deepali Bhargava, Lynn Song and Min Joo Kang, will compare strategic oil reserves, import dependence and energy‑mix...
Reaction as Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 3.75%
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 8‑1 to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 April, matching market expectations. Inflation eased to 3.3% year‑on‑year, but persistent price pressures and geopolitical uncertainty kept the committee from cutting rates. Analysts...
Correspondence: Open Letters Between HM Treasury and Bank of England, April 2026
UK CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026, pushing the rate more than one percentage point above the Bank of England's 2% target. Under the Monetary Policy Committee's remit, the BoE Governor sent an open letter to Chancellor Jeremy Cox...
Balisacan: Peso Slide Driven by Strong Dollar, High Global Oil Prices
Philippine Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said the peso’s slide to a record low of 61.75 per dollar was driven mainly by an unusually strong US dollar and rising global oil prices. The stronger dollar pulled capital into U.S. assets, while...
Hungary Breaks the Chains of Stagnation but Risks Being Bound Again
Hungary’s economy expanded 0.8% quarter‑on‑quarter in Q1 2026, matching ING’s most optimistic forecast and lifting year‑on‑year growth to 1.7%. The gain marks the fourth consecutive quarter of expansion, driven primarily by services such as professional, scientific and technical activities, with modest...
The Jones Act Waiver Extension Triggers Explosive Dialogue
The U.S. administration has extended the Jones Act waiver for an additional 90 days starting May 18, aiming to keep petroleum and LNG shipments flowing amid the ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade. The original 60‑day waiver, enacted in mid‑March, was intended...
Kyodo News Digest: April 30, 2026
Japan’s finance minister signaled that decisive action will be needed as the yen weakened past the ¥160 per dollar mark, its lowest since July 2024, amid heightened Middle East tensions. Japan Airlines reported a record FY2025 revenue of ¥2.01 trillion ($12.5 billion), a...
Côte D'Ivoire Powers Ahead but Faces Human Capital Challenge
Côte d'Ivoire is projected to expand 6.4% in 2026, placing it among Africa’s top ten performers, driven by extractives, agro‑industrial and services growth. Recent ENI gas field discovery and Resolute’s $190 million Doropo Gold investment add long‑term momentum. Strong macro fundamentals—S&P...
EU Allows Broader State Aids to Protect Industries From Energy Volatility
The European Commission introduced the Middle East Crisis Temporary State Aid Framework (METSAF) to let member states subsidize up to 70% of extra fuel and fertilizer costs for agriculture, fisheries, and transport firms until year‑end. A simplified option caps individual...
Taiwan Carriers Call for Government Help to Free Trapped Box Ships
Taiwan’s three largest container lines—Evergreen, Yang Ming and Wan Hai—have asked the government to negotiate with Iran to free seven vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz since the US‑Israel‑Iran war began on 28 February. Around 40 container ships are immobilised...
Oil Prices Jump To Four-Year Highs On US-Iran Tensions
Oil prices surged to four‑year highs as stalled U.S.–Iran peace talks and credible reports of U.S. military action raised fears of prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude for June delivery peaked at $126.41 a barrel, while July...
Foreign Investment in California Rose Last Year Despite Trade Disruption
Foreign investment in California rose 4% last year, reaching 19,717 foreign‑owned enterprises and supporting 847,245 jobs, according to the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. The growth was driven primarily by tech sectors such as AI, aerospace, defense and life...
Aleš Michl: A Central Bank. And Bitcoin.
Czech National Bank Governor Aleš Michl told the Bitcoin Conference 2026 that his central bank reduced inflation from about 20% in 2022 to the 2% target within two years through a hawkish stance. He emphasized that disciplined, tighter monetary policy...
Gold Price Rises over 1% to ₹1.5 Lakh/10g on Fed Pause, Geopolitical Worries
Gold surged more than 1% on Thursday, reaching ₹1.5 lakh (about $1,800) per 10 grams and $4,633.91 per ounce, as the U.S. Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 3.5‑3.75%. The rally was driven by bargain‑buying after recent dips and heightened geopolitical tension...
Can Countries Grow Richer by Exporting People, Not Goods?
Kerala’s prosperity increasingly stems from its diaspora rather than traditional exports. About 1.7 million Keralites—roughly 5 % of the state’s population and 11 % of its workforce—are employed in Gulf nations. Their earnings, sent home as remittances, now constitute a sizable share of...