Global Economy News and Headlines
Global Economy News and Headlines
Global Economy Pulse
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Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
A new working paper reveals that India’s GDP figures have been systematically misestimated over the past two decades. Growth from 2005 to 2011 was likely understated by roughly 1–1.5 percentage points, while the 2012‑2023 period appears overstated by about 1.5‑2 points. The authors attribute the bias to two methodological flaws: using the formal sector as a proxy for the informal economy and relying on commodity‑price‑based deflators. Revised calculations released in February 2026 aim to correct these distortions.
Oil prices surged past the $100‑a‑barrel benchmark over the weekend as tensions escalated in Iran, prompting panic across markets. G7 nations quickly pledged to tap strategic reserves and President Trump’s reassurance helped pull prices back, allowing major indexes to close...
The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has revised its UK economic outlook, cutting 2026 GDP growth to 1% and flagging higher inflation and unemployment due to the escalating Iran conflict. Inflation is projected to rise to 2.7% before easing to...
Oil prices surged past $100 per barrel before reversing sharply, marking what analysts call the most epic price reversal in oil history. The swing was driven by mixed signals about the U.S.–Iran conflict, including President Trump's comments and hopes of...
On March 10, 2026, the United States designated Afghanistan as a “state sponsor of wrongful detention,” demanding the release of two American citizens, Mahmood Habibi and Dennis Coyle. Afghan Taliban officials condemned the move as regrettable and urged a diplomatic solution through...
Denis Beau highlighted that France and the euro area have remained surprisingly resilient despite a cascade of shocks, including the Covid‑19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and heightened trade tensions. Inflation has dropped sharply, reaching 1.7 % in January and nearing...
Michele Bullock, the Reserve Bank of Australia governor, outlined why the Board unanimously raised the cash rate in February. She highlighted that inflationary pressures have intensified since mid‑2022, driven by capacity constraints and a still‑tight labour market. Underlying price growth...
Sarah Hunter, speaking at a Norway conference, outlined the outcomes of the 2022‑23 Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) review and the subsequent refinements to its dual mandate. The review praised three decades of strong economic performance under flexible inflation targeting...
The recent missile and drone attacks in the Strait of Hormuz exposed a stark visibility divide in maritime logistics. While insurers pulled war‑risk coverage and AIS signals were jammed, some operators leveraged digital twins and scenario modelling to reroute traffic...
BlackRock chief global investment strategist Wei Li argued that the market’s reaction to the Iran war illustrates enduring financial principles rather than a blanket risk‑off shift. Oil prices surged roughly 8% as the conflict escalated, pushing U.S. Treasury yields up...
Geely‑owned Lotus will become the first Chinese electric‑vehicle brand to sell in Canada under a newly reduced import tariff of 6.1 %, as announced by CEO Feng Qingfeng. The Canadian government will issue up to 24,500 permits per six‑month period, cutting...
Persimmon warned that the escalating conflict with Iran could erode UK home‑buyer confidence, adding pressure to an already fragile mortgage market. The builder still expects to complete 12,000‑12,500 homes in 2026, a modest rise on 2025, and reported a 9%...
Ryozo Himino delivered a speech in Wakayama outlining Japan’s macro‑economic landscape through a detailed AD‑AS diagram. He organized endogenous variables in a circular layout, positioning stable exogenous factors at the core and short‑lived variables on the periphery. The presentation linked...
The European System of Central Banks has launched Phase III of an EU‑financed technical cooperation programme to strengthen central bank capacities in the Western Balkans. Hosted by Banca d’Italia, the initiative builds on two successful phases that delivered training, internships and...
State Bank of India (SBI) has refused to process payments for Russian crude oil even after the United States issued a temporary waiver for Indian imports. The bank cites uncertainty over the waiver's duration, potential sanctions exposure, and reputational risk...
India has amended Press Note 3, easing foreign‑investment rules for all nations sharing a land border, including China. The change removes the mandatory pre‑approval requirement for investments from companies with shareholders in these countries, though approval remains required for any sector....
China is strengthening its energy security framework to offset volatility caused by the Iran‑related conflict. The government has expanded strategic petroleum reserves, accelerated domestic renewable projects, and secured new long‑term contracts with alternative suppliers. These moves aim to insulate the...
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran‑US/Israeli conflict has driven bunker fuel prices to record highs, with IFO 380 averaging $841.50 per tonne globally and Singapore reaching $1,073. At least 20% of the world’s HSFO exports are now...
India's e‑way bill generation slipped 3.1% in February to 132.5 million, yet it remains the third‑highest monthly total on record, signalling sustained logistics activity. Analysts attribute the dip to February’s shorter calendar and seasonal softening after a strong January, not a...
India is walking a diplomatic tightrope as escalating Iran‑U.S. tensions threaten its oil supplies while it seeks to preserve economic stability. Beijing has called for deeper BRICS coordination, but New Delhi has remained silent on the Iranian attack, emphasizing dialogue...
Asian equities rebounded sharply on Tuesday as oil prices retreated from a peak near $120 to around $90 a barrel, easing geopolitical risk concerns. President Donald Trump’s remarks that the Iran‑related conflict was “very complete” further calmed markets. Japan’s revised...
Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel after US and Israeli strikes on Iran, reviving inflation concerns and prompting analysts to warn of a dual recession‑inflation risk. Meanwhile, Swift is launching a new cross‑border retail payments framework to improve speed...
Russia and Iran will sign off the 164‑km Rasht‑Astara railway line on April 1, 2026, a cornerstone of the International North‑South Transport Corridor (INSTC). The €1.6 billion project, jointly funded by Moscow and Tehran, aims to streamline cargo flow from India...
European stock futures surged 1‑2% on Tuesday as oil prices retreated after President Trump suggested possible action to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Brent crude slipped 6.8% to $92.25 per barrel, easing pressure on energy‑sensitive equities. The rally could...
Shares of Indian gas distributors surged after President Donald Trump suggested the Iran war could end soon, easing fears of prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Petronet LNG jumped nearly 5% to ₹292.30, GAIL rose 2% to ₹152.50, and Indraprastha Gas...
The Hang Seng Index rebounded to 24,765, reclaiming its 200‑day moving average after a 1.6% intraday gain. Over the past ten days, it fell only 3.3% while China’s CSI 300 slipped 1.1%, outpacing regional peers hit by oil‑driven stagflation fears. Policy...
Geopolitical strikes on Iran have pushed spot gold to a record $5,420 per ounce, sparking a surge in demand for physical bullion. In Poland, the Mazovia Mint reports private investor purchases rising 30‑50% year‑on‑year, with 21% of Poles entering the...
Mideast Gulf naphtha supplies are tightening after Kuwait's KPC and Bahrain's Bapco Energies announced force majeure, removing roughly 560,000 t/month and 167,000 t/month respectively. Additional shipment delays from ADNOC and cargo cancellations by QatarEnergy, alongside drone attacks on Ras Laffan and Duqm,...
RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned that inflation in Australia is likely to run above the bank’s June projection of 4.2% because of surging oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict. The central bank’s board will meet next week,...
The Indian rupee rebounded from its all‑time low, trading at 92.14 per U.S. dollar after a 7‑paise gain in early trade. The rally was sparked by a sharp drop in global oil prices following President Donald Trump’s comments that the...
India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal urged firms to capitalise on the nine free‑trade agreements covering 38 developed economies, which open roughly two‑thirds of global trade to Indian exporters. He highlighted India’s rise to 38th in the Global Innovation Index and...
India has declined the International Energy Agency’s invitation to tap its strategic oil reserves as a measure to curb soaring crude prices. The country holds about 5.33 million tonnes of underground reserves, roughly 80% of capacity, and reserves them for supply‑disruption...
Apple boosted iPhone assembly in India by roughly 53% in 2025, reaching about 55 million units and accounting for a quarter of its global output. The shift helps the company sidestep escalating US tariffs on Chinese‑made devices and diversifies its supply...
Supreme Court struck down Trump-era IEEPA tariffs, prompting a flood of refund claims for roughly $175 billion collected. The U.S. Court of International Trade ordered the government to begin issuing refunds, but Customs and Border Protection requested a 45‑day setup period,...
When the United States and other major donors slashed foreign aid in 2025, analysts warned of imminent economic collapse across Africa. Yet recent data show most African economies have maintained or even modestly expanded growth, with Ethiopia posting 4.2% GDP...
The authors argue that governments worldwide are moving toward a form of state capitalism, using export controls, investment‑screening mechanisms, and subsidies to steer corporate behavior toward geopolitical goals. This shift blurs the line between market‑driven decision‑making and political direction, compelling...
China’s exports jumped 21.8% in the first two months of 2026, marking the strongest bi‑monthly increase in four years. The surge was powered by heightened demand from ASEAN, the European Union and other key markets, while U.S. exports to China...
The U.S. dollar slipped after President Donald Trump declared the Iran conflict "very complete," prompting a sharp retreat in oil prices. Brent crude fell to $92.46 a barrel, down from Monday's $120 peak, easing pressure on risk‑sensitive currencies such as...
Japan’s October‑December GDP was revised up to an annualised 1.3 percent, reversing two quarters of contraction. The upgrade reflects stronger business investment, with capital spending rising 1.3 percent, and a modest lift in private consumption of 0.3 percent. Nominal GDP also jumped to...
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are pushing energy prices higher, threatening the profit margins of Thailand's consumer‑goods conglomerate Osotspa Plc. Energy accounts for roughly 20% of the company's costs, and a rise in LNG to $140‑150 per unit could...
A sudden escalation in the Middle East has driven crude oil prices up nearly 40% in a week, pushing barrel prices toward $150 and sending jet‑fuel costs soaring. Fuel, the airline industry's largest variable expense, is now testing the resilience...
President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a roughly hour‑long phone call, their first since the Iran‑Russia conflict escalated. The leaders discussed proposals to end the war in Iran and linked those efforts to a potential resolution of...
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) says foreign investors will likely return once geopolitical tensions ease, positioning Thailand as a regional safe‑haven. Since the Middle East conflict, the SET index fell about 10.5% but remains 8.5% higher year‑to‑date, keeping Thailand...
Caretaker finance minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas warned that Thailand’s soaring oil prices, now above $100 per barrel, present a pivotal chance to reshape the economy. He highlighted a 60% jump in BOI‑registered projects to 1.8 trillion baht, reflecting a wave of investors...
The recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a sharp rise in global natural‑gas prices, except in North America, which remains insulated by abundant domestic supply. The disruption forced several LNG carriers originally bound for Europe to reroute...
Chinese steel exporters are confronting steep anti‑dumping duties in Brazil, ranging from $285 to $710 per tonne, which could render Chinese imports unviable for up to five years. The duties target pre‑painted, cold‑rolled, and coated steel, prompting Chinese firms to...
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have pushed crude oil into the mid‑$70‑per‑barrel range, sending the national average gasoline price up 27 cents to $3.25 per gallon. Analysts warn the pump price could climb to $3.50‑$3.70 soon and possibly breach...
Former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Dan Glickman warned that presidential tariffs are endangering key export markets, especially for soybeans. He highlighted that U.S. agriculture relies heavily on overseas sales and that recent tariff measures have squeezed demand and farmgate prices....
Agricultural markets are closely monitoring the upcoming face‑to‑face meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing at the end of March. The talks follow a late‑October summit that produced a trade framework committing China to 25 million...
Footwear maker Weyco Group, owner of Florsheim, filed a lawsuit in the U.S. Court of International Trade seeking refunds for tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The company alleges it paid up to a 145% duty on Chinese imports and...
