Why Oil’s Not at $200 After the Biggest Supply Shock in History
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created the largest supply shock in modern oil history, yet Brent crude remains under $100 a barrel instead of the $200 levels many feared. A mix of record U.S. export growth, a 40% plunge in Chinese oil imports, and coordinated strategic‑reserve releases have absorbed the loss of more than 10 million barrels per day from the Middle East. Limited but ongoing transits through the strait and alternative Gulf pipelines further cushion the market, but inventories are now at two‑decade lows, raising concerns about future volatility.
Evolving Investment Narratives in a Resilient Market
Franklin Templeton released a standard legal disclaimer accompanying its investment commentary, clarifying that the material is for general interest only and not personalized advice. The notice stresses that past performance does not guarantee future results and highlights the inherent risks...
RBI's Foreign Capital Push Reflects Rising Inflation, Slowing Growth Concerns: Report
The Reserve Bank of India unveiled a policy package aimed at pulling in foreign capital to ease pressure on the rupee and address a widening balance‑of‑payments gap. Measures include broader access for overseas investors to government securities, higher limits for...
On China, Trump Picked the Right Battle but the Wrong Strategy
The piece contends that Donald Trump correctly singled out China as the United States’ chief trade rival, but his indiscriminate tariff barrage lacked strategic depth. Consequently, a prolonged trade conflict is unfolding, prompting the EU, Canada and other nations to...
The Key to the Upcoming Fed Meeting? How Warsh Reacts to All the Hints Of...
The Federal Reserve’s June meeting is expected to be dominated by hints of a rate hike as a robust May jobs report underscores a still‑tight labor market and persistent inflation. Over the past eight weeks, Fed officials have grown nearly...
Blackouts, Hyperinflation, Dissent: Iran Considers Perilous Prospect of Peace
Iran is bracing for a fragile post‑war peace that could bring 10% GDP contraction, soaring food inflation and rolling blackouts. Domestic debates pit hard‑liners against reformists over how to rebuild an economy that has lost an estimated $270 billion in infrastructure...
RBI’s Swap Window, Tax Cuts Could Attract $50 Billion Inflows, but Rate Hikes Likely as Inflation Rises: Report
The Reserve Bank of India introduced a concessional FX swap window and tax cuts on government securities, which analysts estimate could attract up to $75 billion in foreign inflows, including $50 billion from the swap and borrowing windows and $25 billion from potential...
India-US Trade Deal "75 Years Overdue"; Proposed 12.5% Tariff Part of Talks: USIBC's Atul Keshap
US‑India Business Council President Atul Keshap said a bilateral trade agreement is 75 years overdue and that Washington’s 12.5% tariff on Indian goods over forced‑labour concerns is part of the ongoing talks. He highlighted positive signals from USTR Brendan Lynch...
Why Hiring Surged in May Despite Economic Strain From the Iran War
The U.S. Labor Department reported a surprise surge in May, adding 172,000 jobs—the third consecutive month of solid gains and well above the 110,000 economists had forecast. Revisions lifted March and April totals by 93,000, while local‑government hiring alone contributed...
Iran's Threats Against This Red Sea Choke Point Are a Big Vulnerability for the Oil Market
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned it could shut the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait if Israel does not halt strikes, reviving fears of a new oil‑supply choke point. The strait now handles roughly 7.2 million barrels per day, up from 3.9 million in February, after Saudi...
WTO Says AI Investment Keeps Global Trade Above Trend Despite War
The World Trade Organization’s June 2026 Goods Trade Barometer shows that demand for AI‑related electronic components lifted global merchandise trade above trend despite the Middle East conflict. Electronic components posted a barometer reading of 105.5, outpacing container shipping, air freight,...
The Global Energy Crisis and Its Impacts on Asian Emerging Economies
Disruption in the Gulf strait, which handles roughly 20% of global oil and LNG, is tightening supplies to Asia, where about 90% of those flows are destined. The scarcity is driving up freight rates, insurance premiums, and forcing substitution constraints...
PSUs to Get Concessional Forex Swaps to Boost External Borrowings
India’s central bank announced a concessional foreign‑exchange swap facility for public‑sector undertakings, running through September 30, to spur external commercial borrowings and increase dollar inflows. The RBI did not set a specific borrowing target but expects “healthy” flows over the next...
Oman Ports Emerge as India's Gateway to West Asia, Africa
The India‑Oman Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement took effect on June 1, opening Oman’s ports of Sohar, Salalah and Duqm to Indian exporters and investors. Sohar, a fast‑growing deep‑sea hub, now hosts the nation’s first bulk agricultural terminal, while Salalah leverages a...
India-US Interim Trade Deal Likely by Mid-July: Piyush Goyal
India and the United States are on track to sign the first tranche of a bilateral trade agreement by mid‑July, according to Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. The interim deal would grant India preferential market access over rivals such as Vietnam...
FY26 Growth Higher than Anticipated, Shows India's Resilience: MoSPI Secretary
India’s real GDP grew 7.7% in FY 2025‑26, surpassing the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation’s Second Advance Estimate. The uptick follows a 7.1% expansion in FY 2024‑25 and reflects strong capital formation, a buoyant construction sector, and resilient private consumption, especially...
CNN: Iran-US Talks Reportedly Deadlocked
Iran’s senior adviser Mohsen Rezaei announced that talks with the United States have stalled over a demand for $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets, split into two $12 billion tranches. Tehran frames the release as a trust‑building test, while Washington fears losing...
Putin: It Would Be Efficient for US to Use Russia's LNG Technologies in Alaska
Vladimir Putin has publicly suggested that the United States adopt Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) technology for projects in Alaska, despite ongoing sanctions. The U.S. still bans Russian crude, petroleum products, LNG and coal, but allows limited sales under a...
Brazil Seeks New Partners, Expands Credit Lines as US Tariff Threat Mounts
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced a dual strategy to counter looming U.S. tariffs that could hit up to 20% of Brazil's exports to the United States. Washington has proposed a 25% duty on those goods and a...
The ECB Should Not Raise Interest Rates Yet
The European Central Bank is poised to hike rates on June 11 despite lingering uncertainty about inflation’s trajectory. Policymakers cite the lingering energy‑price shock from the Iran war as a justification, even though growth remains weak, wages are stagnant, and market...
Fitch Ratings Lowers Global Growth Expectations
Fitch Ratings trimmed its 2026 global growth outlook by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4% as the Iran‑U.S. conflict drives an oil price shock and higher inflation. The agency also lowered the United States forecast to 1.9% and the eurozone to...
When Markets Run on Empty
Despite a protracted Middle East energy conflict and lingering inflation, global equity markets remain buoyant as consumers and businesses continue to spend. This spending is increasingly supported by higher debt levels rather than income growth. Analysts warn that the reliance...
Bumper US Non-Farm Payrolls in May Confirm Fed Rate Cuts Are Off the Table
U.S. non‑farm payrolls surged in May, adding 339,000 jobs and pushing the unemployment rate down to 3.4%, the lowest in five decades. Wage growth also accelerated, with average hourly earnings rising 0.4% month‑over‑month. The data underscored the labor market’s resilience,...
Do China-Russia Trade Payment Frictions Show Limits of De-Dollarisation?
China and Russia have shifted most bilateral trade settlement to the yuan and ruble, yet payment frictions persist as Chinese banks curb exposure to U.S. secondary sanctions. Senior Russian banker Alexander Vedyakhin warned that payment routes now involve multiple intermediaries,...
Coupa and MIT Launch AI-Powered Business Spend Index
Coupa and MIT’s Data Science Lab have unveiled the Business Spend Index (BSI), an AI‑driven tool that leverages Coupa’s repository of more than $10 trillion in B2B transactions from over 10 million buyers and suppliers. The index can forecast shifts in corporate...
Taiwan's CPI Growth Tops 2% Alert Level in May
Taiwan's consumer price index rose 2.20% year‑over‑year in May, breaking the central bank’s 2% alert threshold for the first time since April 2025. The core CPI also exceeded the alert, climbing 2.12% as fuel‑related costs surged. Communications, transportation and air‑ticket prices...
EU Trade Chief Calls for New Tool to Diversify Supply Away From China
EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič urged the creation of a new “diversification instrument” to curb reliance on single suppliers in strategic sectors such as semiconductors and rare‑earth minerals. He likened the proposal to the Energy Union model that reduced Europe’s...
Cash Earnings Rebound Supports a Bank of Japan June Rate Rise
Cash earnings at Japan's major banks rebounded sharply in the first quarter, climbing about 12% year‑on‑year, giving the Bank of Japan (BoJ) fiscal backing for its June policy decision. The BoJ raised its short‑term policy rate by 25 basis points,...
The Key Forces Now Shaping Markets and Geopolitics
Ian Bremmer identifies three forces reshaping economies and geopolitics: politically unconstrained AI development, a pivot from globalization to zero‑sum thinking, and rising international tail‑risk events. He argues that despite the United States under President Donald Trump destabilizing the post‑World‑II order,...
Kazakhstan Makes a Surprise Rate Cut, with Next Move to Depend on the Tenge
The National Bank of Kazakhstan unexpectedly slashed its base rate by 100 basis points to 17.0%, citing a faster‑than‑anticipated slowdown in consumer‑price inflation. May CPI fell to 10.4% year‑over‑year, while household inflation expectations dropped sharply and the tenge appreciated about...
‘So What? 100 Is Just a Number’: PM Modi's EAC Member Dismisses Alarm over Rupee’s Potential Fall to Triple Digits
Shamika Ravi, a member of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Economic Advisory Council, dismissed alarm over the Indian rupee potentially slipping to 100 per U.S. dollar, calling the level “just a number.” She argued that policy should focus on managing the broader economic...
Trump’s Tariffs Are Back – and the Timing Couldn’t Be Worse for Asia
Donald Trump has revived U.S. import tariffs, imposing a minimum 10% levy on 60 countries—including China, Japan, South Korea, India, Taiwan and the EU—using Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. The tariffs are framed as a response to forced‑labor...
RBI, Govt Unveil Measures to Attract Foreign Inflows in Bonds, Equities
The Reserve Bank of India and the government announced a package of reforms aimed at pulling foreign capital into Indian bonds and equities. Key steps include expanding the Fully Accessible Route to 15‑, 30‑ and 40‑year government securities, granting FPIs...
RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25%; Markets Rise as Financials Gain, Metals Drag
India’s central bank left its repo rate unchanged at 5.25% on June 5, 2026, while the Monetary Policy Committee lifted its FY27 inflation outlook to 5.1% and trimmed growth to 6.6%. The RBI also announced a package of capital‑account measures—including expanded...
Asia Week Ahead: China and India Inflation, Taiwan and China Trade
India’s consumer price index is projected to climb to 3.9% year‑on‑year in May, up from 3.48% in April but still below the RBI’s 4% ceiling. In China, May trade data are expected to show exports rising 19.5% and imports 36.4%,...
Inflation Slows to 6.8% in May
Philippine inflation eased to 6.8% in May, down from 7.2% in April, slipping below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ 7.1‑7.9% forecast and the Inquirer’s median estimate of 7.7%. The slowdown was driven by softer transport and food prices, as well...
Sino-West Trade Strains Deepen on New Tariffs and Rules
The USTR has proposed up to 12.5% tariffs on imports from 60 countries, including China, citing forced‑labor concerns. Simultaneously, the EU introduced the Industrial Accelerator Act and Cybersecurity Act, tightening market access for foreign tech and advanced‑manufacturing firms. Beijing warned...
The US-China Decoupling Fantasy, with Jessica Chen Weiss
In a Financial Times podcast, Jessica Chen Weiss argues that the notion of a complete US‑China economic decoupling is unrealistic. She points to China’s dominance in critical minerals and high‑tech manufacturing, as well as its massive trade surplus, but stresses that both...
Foreign Investors Pivot to Short Govt Bonds Ahead of Policy Turn
Foreign investors have shifted toward short‑term Indian government bonds, with those under five years accounting for more than two‑thirds of the top ten purchases in March‑May, up from under half in Jan‑Feb. After a record sale of ₹17,700 crore (≈$2.1 billion) in...
SF FedViews: Uncertainty Clouds the Outlook on Inflation and the Economy
The San Francisco Fed’s June 4 outlook notes that U.S. real GDP expanded 1.6% annualized in Q1 2026, trailing the 2% long‑run trend. Growth was buoyed primarily by business investment in artificial‑intelligence infrastructure, while consumer spending softened under high gasoline...
Beijing Vows to Retaliate as EU Warns of China Shock 2.0
The European Commission warned that the surge of cheap Chinese imports – dubbed “China Shock 2.0” – has made the EU‑China trade relationship unsustainable, citing a 2025 trade deficit of €359 billion (about $418 billion). Beijing’s Commerce Ministry threatened firm retaliation if the...
Ukraine Marks Milestone as Exports on Sea Corridor Top 200 Million Tons
Ukraine’s maritime corridor, launched in September 2023, has now moved more than 200 million tons of cargo, including 118 million tons of grain. Over 7,800 vessels have used the route to ship goods to 35 countries, with 2026 already seeing nearly 35 million tons...
Consumption Demand Faces Risk From Global Headwinds, Parliamentary Panel Informed
India’s Parliamentary Standing Committee on Finance was briefed that global pressures – including a weaker rupee, higher energy costs and shifting capital flows – could start to weigh on domestic consumption. The Department of Economic Affairs warned that below‑normal monsoon...
US Mortgage Rates Are Staying High – and the Fed Can Do Very Little About It
Mortgage rates remain elevated despite the Federal Reserve’s 2024‑2025 rate cuts, with the 30‑year average at 6.48% in early June 2026. The Fed’s influence is limited because long‑term mortgage rates follow the 10‑year Treasury yield and market expectations rather than...
Extra Credit
Higher interest rates are becoming the new normal as structural forces—demographics, security spending, an investment boom, and large fiscal deficits—push yields upward. Bond markets are edging toward fair value, offering attractive starting yields that cushion portfolios against volatility. Core inflation...
BOE Bailey: Markets Have Been Orderly but Stressed at Times.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said markets have been orderly but at times stressed, flagging debt‑market leverage concerns. The UK 10‑year yield jumped 97 basis points to 5.20% in May before easing back to about 4.90%, while the US...
Brazilian BPI Could Face up to 37.5pc US Tariffs
The United States is poised to levy up to a 37.5% duty on Brazilian basic pig iron (BPI) by mid‑July, combining a 25% Section 301 tariff with a 12.5% forced‑labor surcharge. Brazil currently provides 63.5% of U.S. BPI imports, a critical...
There Are Early Signs of Renewed Labor Market Strength During Iran War
A Boston Fed study finds the Iran‑driven oil price surge—about a 33% shock—pushes inflation higher but leaves U.S. employment largely unchanged. The analysis contrasts this with a 1970s‑size shock, which would have raised the PCE price index by 2.2 percentage...
EU Trade Chief Swipes at China’s Overcapacity, but Seeks ‘Meaningful’ Talks with Beijing
EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic called for practical, result‑oriented dialogue with China after meeting Li Chenggang at the OECD in Paris, warning that Chinese overcapacity and non‑market practices are distorting global markets. He highlighted the EU’s growing trade deficit with China of...
MacroVoices #535 Michael Every: NAFTA and NAPTHA – Warcraft & Fartcraft
MacroVoices episode #535 features former Treasury official Michael Every discussing the Federal Reserve’s direction under Kevin Warsh, China’s expanding role in the global oil market, and how the upcoming U.S. midterm elections could reshape commodity prices. The conversation also dives...