CNN: Iran-US Talks Reportedly Deadlocked
Iran’s senior adviser Mohsen Rezaei announced that talks with the United States have stalled over a demand for $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets, split into two $12 billion tranches. Tehran frames the release as a trust‑building test, while Washington fears losing leverage by uncapping the funds. The deadlock raises the specter of renewed conflict across key maritime chokepoints, and traders see heightened risk for oil markets. Current crude prices sit at $90.75 a barrel, reflecting cautious sentiment.
Putin: It Would Be Efficient for US to Use Russia's LNG Technologies in Alaska
Vladimir Putin has publicly suggested that the United States adopt Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) technology for projects in Alaska, despite ongoing sanctions. The U.S. still bans Russian crude, petroleum products, LNG and coal, but allows limited sales under a...
Brazil Seeks New Partners, Expands Credit Lines as US Tariff Threat Mounts
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced a dual strategy to counter looming U.S. tariffs that could hit up to 20% of Brazil's exports to the United States. Washington has proposed a 25% duty on those goods and a...
The ECB Should Not Raise Interest Rates Yet
The European Central Bank is poised to hike rates on June 11 despite lingering uncertainty about inflation’s trajectory. Policymakers cite the lingering energy‑price shock from the Iran war as a justification, even though growth remains weak, wages are stagnant, and market...
Fitch Ratings Lowers Global Growth Expectations
Fitch Ratings trimmed its 2026 global growth outlook by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4% as the Iran‑U.S. conflict drives an oil price shock and higher inflation. The agency also lowered the United States forecast to 1.9% and the eurozone to...
When Markets Run on Empty
Despite a protracted Middle East energy conflict and lingering inflation, global equity markets remain buoyant as consumers and businesses continue to spend. This spending is increasingly supported by higher debt levels rather than income growth. Analysts warn that the reliance...
Bumper US Non-Farm Payrolls in May Confirm Fed Rate Cuts Are Off the Table
U.S. non‑farm payrolls surged in May, adding 339,000 jobs and pushing the unemployment rate down to 3.4%, the lowest in five decades. Wage growth also accelerated, with average hourly earnings rising 0.4% month‑over‑month. The data underscored the labor market’s resilience,...
Do China-Russia Trade Payment Frictions Show Limits of De-Dollarisation?
China and Russia have shifted most bilateral trade settlement to the yuan and ruble, yet payment frictions persist as Chinese banks curb exposure to U.S. secondary sanctions. Senior Russian banker Alexander Vedyakhin warned that payment routes now involve multiple intermediaries,...
Coupa and MIT Launch AI-Powered Business Spend Index
Coupa and MIT’s Data Science Lab have unveiled the Business Spend Index (BSI), an AI‑driven tool that leverages Coupa’s repository of more than $10 trillion in B2B transactions from over 10 million buyers and suppliers. The index can forecast shifts in corporate...
Taiwan's CPI Growth Tops 2% Alert Level in May
Taiwan's consumer price index rose 2.20% year‑over‑year in May, breaking the central bank’s 2% alert threshold for the first time since April 2025. The core CPI also exceeded the alert, climbing 2.12% as fuel‑related costs surged. Communications, transportation and air‑ticket prices...
EU Trade Chief Calls for New Tool to Diversify Supply Away From China
EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič urged the creation of a new “diversification instrument” to curb reliance on single suppliers in strategic sectors such as semiconductors and rare‑earth minerals. He likened the proposal to the Energy Union model that reduced Europe’s...
Cash Earnings Rebound Supports a Bank of Japan June Rate Rise
Cash earnings at Japan's major banks rebounded sharply in the first quarter, climbing about 12% year‑on‑year, giving the Bank of Japan (BoJ) fiscal backing for its June policy decision. The BoJ raised its short‑term policy rate by 25 basis points,...
The Key Forces Now Shaping Markets and Geopolitics
Ian Bremmer identifies three forces reshaping economies and geopolitics: politically unconstrained AI development, a pivot from globalization to zero‑sum thinking, and rising international tail‑risk events. He argues that despite the United States under President Donald Trump destabilizing the post‑World‑II order,...
Kazakhstan Makes a Surprise Rate Cut, with Next Move to Depend on the Tenge
The National Bank of Kazakhstan unexpectedly slashed its base rate by 100 basis points to 17.0%, citing a faster‑than‑anticipated slowdown in consumer‑price inflation. May CPI fell to 10.4% year‑over‑year, while household inflation expectations dropped sharply and the tenge appreciated about...
‘So What? 100 Is Just a Number’: PM Modi's EAC Member Dismisses Alarm over Rupee’s Potential Fall to Triple Digits
Shamika Ravi, a member of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Economic Advisory Council, dismissed alarm over the Indian rupee potentially slipping to 100 per U.S. dollar, calling the level “just a number.” She argued that policy should focus on managing the broader economic...
Trump’s Tariffs Are Back – and the Timing Couldn’t Be Worse for Asia
Donald Trump has revived U.S. import tariffs, imposing a minimum 10% levy on 60 countries—including China, Japan, South Korea, India, Taiwan and the EU—using Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. The tariffs are framed as a response to forced‑labor...
RBI, Govt Unveil Measures to Attract Foreign Inflows in Bonds, Equities
The Reserve Bank of India and the government announced a package of reforms aimed at pulling foreign capital into Indian bonds and equities. Key steps include expanding the Fully Accessible Route to 15‑, 30‑ and 40‑year government securities, granting FPIs...
RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25%; Markets Rise as Financials Gain, Metals Drag
India’s central bank left its repo rate unchanged at 5.25% on June 5, 2026, while the Monetary Policy Committee lifted its FY27 inflation outlook to 5.1% and trimmed growth to 6.6%. The RBI also announced a package of capital‑account measures—including expanded...
Asia Week Ahead: China and India Inflation, Taiwan and China Trade
India’s consumer price index is projected to climb to 3.9% year‑on‑year in May, up from 3.48% in April but still below the RBI’s 4% ceiling. In China, May trade data are expected to show exports rising 19.5% and imports 36.4%,...
Inflation Slows to 6.8% in May
Philippine inflation eased to 6.8% in May, down from 7.2% in April, slipping below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ 7.1‑7.9% forecast and the Inquirer’s median estimate of 7.7%. The slowdown was driven by softer transport and food prices, as well...
Sino-West Trade Strains Deepen on New Tariffs and Rules
The USTR has proposed up to 12.5% tariffs on imports from 60 countries, including China, citing forced‑labor concerns. Simultaneously, the EU introduced the Industrial Accelerator Act and Cybersecurity Act, tightening market access for foreign tech and advanced‑manufacturing firms. Beijing warned...
The US-China Decoupling Fantasy, with Jessica Chen Weiss
In a Financial Times podcast, Jessica Chen Weiss argues that the notion of a complete US‑China economic decoupling is unrealistic. She points to China’s dominance in critical minerals and high‑tech manufacturing, as well as its massive trade surplus, but stresses that both...
Foreign Investors Pivot to Short Govt Bonds Ahead of Policy Turn
Foreign investors have shifted toward short‑term Indian government bonds, with those under five years accounting for more than two‑thirds of the top ten purchases in March‑May, up from under half in Jan‑Feb. After a record sale of ₹17,700 crore (≈$2.1 billion) in...
SF FedViews: Uncertainty Clouds the Outlook on Inflation and the Economy
The San Francisco Fed’s June 4 outlook notes that U.S. real GDP expanded 1.6% annualized in Q1 2026, trailing the 2% long‑run trend. Growth was buoyed primarily by business investment in artificial‑intelligence infrastructure, while consumer spending softened under high gasoline...
Beijing Vows to Retaliate as EU Warns of China Shock 2.0
The European Commission warned that the surge of cheap Chinese imports – dubbed “China Shock 2.0” – has made the EU‑China trade relationship unsustainable, citing a 2025 trade deficit of €359 billion (about $418 billion). Beijing’s Commerce Ministry threatened firm retaliation if the...
Ukraine Marks Milestone as Exports on Sea Corridor Top 200 Million Tons
Ukraine’s maritime corridor, launched in September 2023, has now moved more than 200 million tons of cargo, including 118 million tons of grain. Over 7,800 vessels have used the route to ship goods to 35 countries, with 2026 already seeing nearly 35 million tons...
Consumption Demand Faces Risk From Global Headwinds, Parliamentary Panel Informed
India’s Parliamentary Standing Committee on Finance was briefed that global pressures – including a weaker rupee, higher energy costs and shifting capital flows – could start to weigh on domestic consumption. The Department of Economic Affairs warned that below‑normal monsoon...
US Mortgage Rates Are Staying High – and the Fed Can Do Very Little About It
Mortgage rates remain elevated despite the Federal Reserve’s 2024‑2025 rate cuts, with the 30‑year average at 6.48% in early June 2026. The Fed’s influence is limited because long‑term mortgage rates follow the 10‑year Treasury yield and market expectations rather than...
Extra Credit
Higher interest rates are becoming the new normal as structural forces—demographics, security spending, an investment boom, and large fiscal deficits—push yields upward. Bond markets are edging toward fair value, offering attractive starting yields that cushion portfolios against volatility. Core inflation...
BOE Bailey: Markets Have Been Orderly but Stressed at Times.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said markets have been orderly but at times stressed, flagging debt‑market leverage concerns. The UK 10‑year yield jumped 97 basis points to 5.20% in May before easing back to about 4.90%, while the US...
Brazilian BPI Could Face up to 37.5pc US Tariffs
The United States is poised to levy up to a 37.5% duty on Brazilian basic pig iron (BPI) by mid‑July, combining a 25% Section 301 tariff with a 12.5% forced‑labor surcharge. Brazil currently provides 63.5% of U.S. BPI imports, a critical...
There Are Early Signs of Renewed Labor Market Strength During Iran War
A Boston Fed study finds the Iran‑driven oil price surge—about a 33% shock—pushes inflation higher but leaves U.S. employment largely unchanged. The analysis contrasts this with a 1970s‑size shock, which would have raised the PCE price index by 2.2 percentage...
EU Trade Chief Swipes at China’s Overcapacity, but Seeks ‘Meaningful’ Talks with Beijing
EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic called for practical, result‑oriented dialogue with China after meeting Li Chenggang at the OECD in Paris, warning that Chinese overcapacity and non‑market practices are distorting global markets. He highlighted the EU’s growing trade deficit with China of...
MacroVoices #535 Michael Every: NAFTA and NAPTHA – Warcraft & Fartcraft
MacroVoices episode #535 features former Treasury official Michael Every discussing the Federal Reserve’s direction under Kevin Warsh, China’s expanding role in the global oil market, and how the upcoming U.S. midterm elections could reshape commodity prices. The conversation also dives...
On the Right Track
The Middle East conflict jolted global oil markets, exposing the Philippines’ heavy reliance on imported crude—about 98% from the region—and driving inflation above 7%. In response, the government is accelerating a shift toward indigenous renewables such as solar, wind, hydro,...
Fed's Daly: Policy Is in a Good Place and We Are Prepared to Respond Either Way
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Daly told investors that forward guidance is limited right now and the Fed’s policy stance is "in a good place," but she stopped short of confirming the current rate path. Daly acknowledged uncertainty about how the economy...
Trump Order Directs Customs to Crack Down on Tariff Cheats
President Donald Trump signed an executive order on June 3 directing U.S. Customs and Border Protection to tighten enforcement against tariff evasion and forced‑labor imports. The order mandates new AI‑driven shipment tracking, stricter reporting of importers‑of‑record, and tighter bond requirements to...
Trump’s Empire of Debt
The Financial Times argues that the United States is edging toward imperial overstretch as successive wars have been financed almost entirely by borrowing, pushing public debt toward its highest post‑World War II level. President Trump has asked Congress for a $1.5 trillion...
Mexico Investment Extends One of Longest Slumps in Decades
Mexico's gross fixed investment continued its multi‑month decline in March, falling 3.1% from a year earlier. The contraction follows a 3.5% drop in February, extending the longest investment slump in decades. The downturn reflects heightened uncertainty over domestic policy choices...
Outdated Payments Cost Singapore $7 Billion
Airwallex and the Centre for Economics and Business Research report that Singapore’s businesses lose roughly $7 billion each year because legacy cross‑border payment systems impose high fees, FX spreads and settlement delays. The study labels these hidden costs the “Global Growth...
EU Pledges Aid to Armenia, Accuses Russia of Economic Coercion
The European Union announced more than €50 million (about $55 million) in immediate aid for Armenia after Moscow imposed new trade restrictions, particularly on agri‑food products like flowers. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyden pledged assistance to diversify Armenian exports and support infrastructure...
Why Exclude Food and Energy From Inflation Measures? : Explaining Core PCE
The Federal Reserve relies on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index as its preferred inflation gauge, with a particular focus on the core PCE that strips out food and energy components. Food and energy prices are prone to sharp,...
Chinese Carmakers BYD, Chery Chart 80% Growth Overseas as EV Demand Spikes
Chinese automakers BYD and Chery are accelerating overseas sales as global EV demand spikes. In May, Chery shipped 181,571 vehicles abroad, an 81% year‑on‑year increase, while BYD delivered 160,177 units overseas, also up 81% and accounting for 42% of its...
Piero Cipollone: Europe's Money Evolves so People's Freedom to Pay Remains
ECB policymaker Piero Cipollone highlighted recent progress on the digital euro, noting that the Single Currency Package is moving through the ECON Committee and awaits a European Parliament position. He stressed that cash remains a core freedom, welcoming legislation that...
Kazuo Ueda: Economic Activity and Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that the recent surge in Middle‑East‑driven crude‑oil prices is adding inflationary pressure to Japan’s economy. He compared the current shock to past oil crises of the 1970s, the mid‑2000s boom, and the 2022...
Isabel Schnabel: From Money Market Funds to Stablecoins - Lessons for Central Banks
In a recent BIS speech, Isabel Schnabel warned that the rapid expansion of stablecoins—privately issued digital tokens pegged to fiat—poses fresh challenges for monetary authorities. She drew a historical parallel to the Bank of Amsterdam’s "bank money," an early form...
As India Rises in Critical Minerals Race, Can It Dent China’s Dominance?
India and the United States signed a framework agreement on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earths, aiming to reduce reliance on China’s dominant supply chain. The pact follows a $20 billion Quad initiative and includes provisions for joint mining,...
Wealthy Families Are Using Geopolitics as a Catalyst to Rethink Not Just Portfolios, but Purpose
AlTi Tiedemann Global’s co‑head of US client advisory, Kimberly Evans, says ultra‑high‑net‑worth families are using heightened geopolitical risk to rethink both portfolio composition and the purpose behind their wealth. Clients are increasingly refusing exposure to regions or industries that clash...
Piero Cipollone: Money in the Digital Age
Central banks have long issued stable, trusted money, but the digital revolution is reshaping how consumers pay and how financial services operate. As digital wallets, fintech platforms, and instant settlement networks proliferate, central bank money risks becoming a legacy relic...
The Iran War Is Fueling a Global Debt Shock
The war in Iran has sent oil, gas and food prices soaring, turning a price shock into a debt shock for many developing economies. Governments across the Global South now face sharply higher borrowing costs as investors demand higher yields....