Oil Prices Fall on Hopes of Strait of Hormuz Reopening
Oil prices retreated on Tuesday as traders priced in the likely reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global petroleum flows. Brent crude fell about 2% to $84 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped roughly 2.5% to $80. The decline follows a week of heightened volatility after Iranian‑backed attacks temporarily blocked the waterway, which carries around 20% of world oil trade. Analysts see the move as a short‑term relief rather than a lasting trend.
India Pilots Digital Rupee for Aid Distribution, Cross-Border Payments
India’s Reserve Bank is testing the digital rupee as a tool for welfare payments, piloting food‑benefit disbursements that leverage the currency’s instant settlement and programmable features. The RBI also announced cross‑border pilots with Singapore and the United Arab Emirates to...
Central Banking in an Age of Global Supply Shocks
Central banks' long‑standing inflation‑targeting framework is increasingly misaligned with a world marked by recurring supply‑side shocks and geopolitical fragmentation. Recent bond market data underscore this mismatch: the 30‑year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 5.2%, the German 10‑year Bund hit a...
Fed's Bowman Willing to Look Through War-Driven Inflation Bump
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman told an Iceland conference that the recent inflation spike, driven by higher energy prices and one‑off tariff effects from the Iran war, should be looked through. She emphasized using trimmed‑mean PCE rather than headline...
Fed’s Bowman Says Too Soon to Judge Inflation Impact of Iran War
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman warned that it is too early to assess the inflationary fallout from the U.S. war in Iran, urging policymakers to look through temporary energy‑price spikes. She backed the Fed’s decision to keep rate‑cut language...
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Warns Against Hiking Interest Rates because of Inflation Spike
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman warned that raising interest rates to counter a brief surge in energy‑driven inflation would be premature. She noted that April’s PCE price index jumped 3.8% while core PCE eased to 3.3%, and the Dallas Fed’s...
Dollar’s Monthly Rise Leaves Strategists Wary of More Gains
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.7% in May, putting the greenback on track for its fourth monthly gain since the 2025 downtrend began. Investors are increasing bets that the Federal Reserve will lift rates by early 2027, which heightens...
Equities Celebrate, Bonds Warn: Bitcoin Bets on the Interest-Rate Reality
Equity markets stay buoyant thanks to an AI‑driven rally, while bond markets warn of higher inflation as the Strait of Hormuz blockade pushes oil and helium prices up. Investors are shifting from expectations of rate cuts to the possibility of...
Taiwan Raises 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 9.64%, a High in 16 Years
Taiwan’s Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics lifted its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 9.64%, a 1.93‑point jump and the strongest annual pace since 2010. The upgrade follows a 14.55% first‑quarter surge, the fastest in 48 years, and reflects...
Japan Spends Record 11.73 Tril. Yen in April-May to Stem Yen's Slide
Japan’s finance ministry confirmed a record ¥11.73 trillion ($74 billion) was spent on foreign‑exchange intervention between April 28 and early May, aiming to curb the yen’s slide amid heightened geopolitical risk. The outflow eclipsed the previous monthly high of ¥9.79 trillion set during a...
Canada Entered a Technical Recession in Q1
Canada has entered a technical recession after two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Q1 GDP was flat at 0.0% annualized, following a 0.1% decline in Q4, as a 2.9% surge in imports outweighed modest export weakness. Business capital investment...
What’s Behind the EU-Mexico Trade Deal?
Mexico and the European Union signed an expanded free‑trade agreement that adds services, farm produce, and investment protections to the original industrial‑goods pact. The EU pledged about $5.8 billion in investments aligned with President Claudia Sheinbaum’s Plan Mexico. The deal arrives as...
German Inflation Dropped in May Amid State Measures to Cut Gasoline Prices
German headline inflation fell to 2.6% year‑on‑year in May, down from 2.9% in April, while core and services inflation rose back to pre‑war levels. The decline was driven by a government fuel‑tax rebate of roughly €0.17 per litre, which also...
All Things US Trade with Jeffrey J. Schott
Jeffrey J. Schott, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, joined Insider LIVE to discuss the latest U.S. trade developments. The conversation covered the ongoing review of the United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement, evolving trade dynamics with South Korea, and Schott’s...
USD/JPY: Largest Quarterly Intervention Since 2004
Japan’s Ministry of Finance confirmed the Bank of Japan intervened ¥11.735 trillion (≈$76 bn) in the April‑May quarter, the biggest single‑quarter FX action since 2004. The buying pressure drove USD/JPY from above 160 to below 156 within a few sessions. Analysts note...
Bank of England’s Bailey Says Allowing Inflation to Run Above Target Is Appropriate
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said the central bank will tolerate inflation running above its 2 percent target because of uncertainty from the Iran war and weak growth. He cautioned that this tolerance could tighten if second‑round price pressures emerge....
Canada’s Push to Diversify Trade Away From U.S. Seeing Mixed Results: Report
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report shows that export diversification away from the United States is progressing unevenly. Calgary and Ottawa‑Gatineau posted the strongest gains, each expanding non‑U.S. exports by roughly 64% in 2025, while the nation’s overall non‑U.S. export...
OCBC Targets China-ASEAN Trade Flows
OCBC has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Singapore Chinese Chamber of Commerce & Industry and the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products. The partnership aligns with OCBC’s "Asia Shift" pillar of...
The MPC's Remit and Trade-Off Management
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) operates under a flexible inflation‑targeting remit that prioritises low, stable inflation while allowing temporary output volatility. By formalising a loss function that weights deviations of inflation and the output gap, the MPC...
Stagflation Warning Signs Are Flashing, But the AI Boom Is Letting Investors Ignore Them (For Now)
U.S. equity indices hit record highs on Thursday even as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, rose to a three‑year peak of 3.8% year‑over‑year. At the same time, Q1 GDP was revised down to...
Iran War Food Price Crisis: How Industry Can Prepare
Three months after the Iran war began, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, choking global energy and fertilizer shipments. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that prolonged disruption could trigger a worldwide food‑price crisis within six to twelve months....
Capital Economics Sees Philippine Growth Hitting Post-Pandemic Low of 3% Amid Corruption Scandal, Mideast War
Capital Economics projects Philippine GDP growth slipping to 3% in 2024, the lowest level since the pandemic, as a multi‑billion‑peso (≈ $50 million) flood‑control corruption scandal and the ongoing Middle East war dampen confidence. First‑quarter growth slowed to 2.8% and the peso...
How Trump’s War on Iran Is Jeopardising Asia’s Remittance Lifeline
The U.S.–Israeli war on Iran is destabilising the Gulf’s migrant‑labour engine, prompting a wave of departures that threatens both host economies and the billions of dollars in remittances they generate. Around one million Indian workers have already fled, and Oxford...
Security Escalation Around Hormuz Triggers Fresh Uncertainty for Trade Flows
Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighted by reported U.S. strikes on Iranian sites and drone activity near Kuwait, have prompted Iran to force four vessels to turn back and led the U.S. to sanction the Persian Gulf Strait...
The Leakage and Lies Keeping Indonesia’s Rupiah Weak
Indonesia’s massive trade surpluses have failed to strengthen the rupiah because exporters routinely under‑invoice and use aggressive transfer pricing to shift profits offshore. Government estimates place cumulative revenue loss at roughly $908 billion (about 15,400 trillion rupiah) from 1991‑2024, with a single...
Asia Week Ahead: Korea and Taiwan Inflation Data and China Manufacturing Figures
South Korea’s May consumer price index is projected at 3.0% YoY amid higher fuel and service costs, while chip exports are expected to surge 52% YoY, bolstering overall trade. Taiwan’s CPI is forecast at 2.2% YoY, potentially the first breach...
SARB Raises Repo Rate To 7%
The South African Reserve Bank lifted its repo rate by 25 basis points to 7% on May 29, 2026, after four of six Monetary Policy Committee members voted for the increase. The move reflects heightened inflation risks from a protracted...
RBI Warns Prolonged West Asia Conflict Could Hit India’s Economy
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) flagged a prolonged West Asia conflict as the chief downside risk to India’s growth outlook, even as it projected real GDP expanding 6.9% in FY 2026‑27, down from 7.6% for FY 2025‑26. The central bank warned...
Stronger Growth in Japan Supports June Rate Hike Despite Softer Inflation
Tokyo's consumer price index eased to 1.4% year‑on‑year in May, undercutting the 1.6% market consensus, thanks to temporary utility waivers, a gasoline price cap and lower education fees. Despite the headline slowdown, service‑sector prices such as housing (+1.3%) and recreation...
India Steers Boat Through a Risky Channel Between War Clouds and El Nino
The Reserve Bank of India’s annual report warns that geopolitics, not interest rates, now dominate the global growth outlook, with IMF forecasts slipping to 3.1% in 2026. India still expects robust 6.9% GDP growth in 2026‑27, backed by stronger banks,...
German Import Prices Climb Further in April as US-Iran Conflict Continues to Reverberate
German import prices surged 5.3% year‑on‑year in April, the strongest rise since January 2023. The jump was led by a 31% increase in energy costs and a 7.8% rise in intermediate goods, especially non‑ferrous metals and fertilizers. Even after stripping...
Spain’s Economic Growth Test
Spain is emerging as one of Europe’s top performers in 2026, driven by record tourism and a revised GDP growth forecast of 2.3% for the year. The Bank of Spain warned that energy‑related shocks could temper growth, but the country...
‘It Feels Unfair’: The Britons Struggling to Get a Mortgage Since Iran War Began
The Iran‑Israel conflict that erupted in February has pushed UK mortgage rates higher, derailing many first‑time buyers. Fixed‑rate offers that were 4.18% in early February have climbed to 5.22%, lifting monthly payments from about £2,600 ($3,250) to £3,100 ($3,875). Prospective...
Europe Is Edging Closer to a Trade War With China. Here’s Why.
European officials are growing alarmed by a flood of cheap Chinese goods that threaten the bloc’s manufacturing base. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas likened the dependence on China to a disease that may require painful "chemotherapy" measures. Rising imports...
How to Win a Trade War, with Paul Krugman and Chad Bown
Nobel laureate Paul Krugman joins Soumaya Keynes to discuss his new book, “How to Win a Trade War,” with co‑author Chad Bown. The FT Economics Show episode explores how fragile domestic politics shape trade conflicts and extracts lessons from China’s...
The Rise of Broker Power: How China Became the Indispensable Mediator in the U.S. Iran Conflict : OPED
China has emerged as the indispensable broker in the U.S.–Iran conflict, leveraging its economic ties with Tehran, Gulf-wide diplomatic reach, and willingness to safeguard Iran’s enriched uranium. The war, costing $29 billion and losing 42 U.S. aircraft, has stalled American objectives,...
Piyush Goyal Engages with over 50 Industry Leaders in New York to Deepen India-US Trade
India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal held a closed‑door roundtable in New York with more than 50 senior U.S. business leaders, emphasizing expanded trade, investment, innovation and supply‑chain cooperation. The event, co‑hosted by the Indian Consulate and the US‑India Strategic Partnership Forum, signaled...
Dollar Faces Renewed Strength if US-Iran Talks Fail, MUFG Warns
MUFG Bank analysts warn that a collapse of the US‑Iran cease‑fire talks could reignite dollar strength. Prolonged conflict would keep energy prices high, feeding inflation and prompting Federal Reserve officials to adopt a more hawkish tone. A tighter link between...
23rd China-ASEAN Expo to Unveil New Business Opportunities
China’s 23rd China‑ASEAN Expo will be held in Nanning from Sept 17‑21, coinciding with the activation of the CAFTA 3.0 upgrade protocol. The event will spotlight digital‑economy and green development zones, an AI‑driven matchmaking platform, and the 134.2‑km Pinglu Canal as a...
A Credible and Safe Path to Chinese Financial Liberalization
China seeks deeper global market access and renminbi internationalization, yet fears the instability that rapid capital‑account liberalization has caused in other emerging economies. Traditional debates frame the choice as either faster openness with higher risk or cautious control with limited...
Bank of England Bailey, Mann and Greene Due to Speak at Conferences: Rates, Crypto
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak in Reykjavik on Friday, where markets will scrutinize any clues about the pace of future rate cuts amid stubborn services inflation. Hawk MPC member Catherine Mann is slated to appear at the...
NZ Business Confidence Bounces in May but Middle East Cost Squeeze Persists
ANZ New Zealand business confidence climbed 21 points in May, reaching +10 after a dip to –10.6 in April, yet it remains well below the pre‑Middle‑East‑conflict baseline. Manufacturing posted the strongest rebound at +26, while retail and construction activity stayed in...
Treasury Launches Tariff Review as Food Price Shocks Get “Baked In” To UK System
The UK Treasury has opened a consultation to suspend tariffs on more than 100 food and household items, aiming to blunt rising consumer prices. Research by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit shows that food price spikes tend to linger,...
‘Transitory Euphoria’: South Korea’s Strong Economic Outlook Masks Key Hurdles
South Korea’s central bank lifted its 2024 growth forecast to 2.6% after the economy posted a 1.7% quarterly surge, driven largely by AI‑related semiconductor exports and supplementary government spending. Inflation expectations were nudged up to 2.7% as global supply shocks...
Putin Visit to Kazakhstan Fails to Clarify Nuclear Power Plant Financing Issue
During a state visit on May 28, Vladimir Putin signed an agreement with Kazakhstan on the “basic principles and conditions” for building the country’s first nuclear power plant on Lake Balkhash. The project is priced at $16.4 billion, with Russia expected to...
As China’s Surpluses Become Unbearable, the EU Is Edging Toward Its Own Section 301
The EU’s goods‑trade deficit with China surged to roughly $436 billion in 2022, while Chinese overcapacity continues to flood European markets. Brussels plans to roll out new economic‑security tools by September 2026, including tighter public‑procurement rules that limit any single supplier to...
U.S. Targets Iran Shipping Network With New Sanctions
The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control announced a new sanctions round targeting a global network of shipping firms, tanker operators and commercial intermediaries linked to Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical trades. Entities in Hong Kong, the UAE, India, Qatar, Singapore,...
CEPA Upgrade Talks: India, South Korea Agree to Address Widening Trade Deficit
India and South Korea agreed to tackle their widening trade deficit during the 12th round of CEPA upgrade talks, creating sub‑groups on digital trade, supply‑chain and strategic industrial collaboration. Indian exports to Korea rose 3.3% to $6 billion, while imports grew...
India, Canada to Skip Sensitive Sectors in Trade Talks: Piyush Goyal
India and Canada agreed to sideline sensitive sectors as they push the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) toward completion by the end of 2026. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal emphasized a pragmatic approach, focusing on low‑ hanging fruit and convergence points....
ITDP’s Response to the Iran Energy Crisis
Closing the Strait of Hormuz has driven oil prices up about 60% and natural‑gas prices up 100% in recent months, exposing the transport sector to soaring fuel costs. The disruption highlights the strait as a critical chokepoint whose future closures...