India Growth Resilient, Markets Near Correction: HDFC Securities
HDFC Securities projects India’s real GDP to grow about 6.5% in FY 26‑27, with nominal GDP expanding 10‑11%. Inflation is expected to ease to roughly 4.5% and the fiscal deficit to hover near 4.3%, while capital spending could account for 32% of total FY 27 outlays. The report notes $18 billion of foreign‑portfolio outflows in FY 26 and highlights robust retail participation, with over 222 million demat accounts and SIP inflows equivalent to $3.6 billion annually. It concludes the market may be at the bottom of the current correction, offering selective long‑term opportunities.
European Stock Markets Fall and Oil and Gas Prices Jump 5% as Strait of Hormuz ‘Chaos’ Worries Investors – Business...
European equities slipped on Monday as renewed chaos in the Strait of Hormuz reignited geopolitical risk, pulling the FTSE 100 down 0.4%, the German DAX 1.3% and Italy’s FTSE Mib 1.1%. Oil prices rebounded sharply, with Brent climbing 5% to $95.60 a...
Malacca Strait Vessel Traffic at Record Levels in 2025
The Strait of Malacca and Singapore recorded a historic 102,525 vessel transits in 2025, surpassing the 100,000‑transit threshold for the first time. Traffic of ships over 300 gt rose 8.72% from 2024, averaging 281 reports per day to Klang VTS. Container...
UK Foreign Minister Cooper Cuts Short Diplomatic Tour
British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper abruptly ended her diplomatic tour, returning from Japan early and cancelling a scheduled speech in Tokyo. The move comes amid a brewing scandal over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as the UK ambassador to the United...
Hormuz Crisis Chokes Tropical Timber — Asian Panel Prices Jump 15%
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked the flow of tropical timber from West Africa and South America, prompting Indian wood panel makers to raise prices by 5‑15 % and Malaysian factories to report that nine in ten firms...
Oil Shock Muddies Rate Path, but Loonie Seen Gaining Ground: TD Economics
TD Economics warns that renewed oil market turbulence is reviving inflation risks, keeping bond yields above pre‑crisis levels and clouding the path for central‑bank rate cuts. The firm expects the Canadian dollar to benefit from a narrowing US‑Canada rate gap,...
Shipowners Bullish on Dry Bulk Prospects
Berge Bulk CEO James Marshall and Seanergy Maritime CEO Stamatis Tsantanis said the Capesize dry‑bulk market is set for strong earnings, with daily freight rates expected to exceed $50,000 in the second half of the year. They highlighted a structural...
India and China Wall Off Border Rows to Focus on Trade and Security
India and China held their first bilateral Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) consultations in New Delhi, signaling a cautious reset in relations. The talks deliberately compartmentalised border disputes, enabling progress on trade, security and multilateral diplomacy. While roughly 60,000 troops remain...
US Captures Iranian Ship Touska Amid Mediation Efforts: All We Know
The U.S. military seized the Iranian‑flagged container ship Touska near the Strait of Hormuz after it ignored repeated warnings to turn back. A guided‑missile destroyer fired on the vessel’s engine room, and U.S. Marines boarded and captured the 294‑meter ship....
Thanks to Government Policy, Your 60/40 Portfolio May Not Cut It Under Stress
Canadian government bond yields remain low at roughly 3.4% despite mounting fiscal deficits, climate‑tax initiatives and regulatory burdens that mirror the United Kingdom’s recent policy path. In the UK, 10‑year gilt yields have risen to about 4.9%, a level that...
Turkish Operator Pasifik Eurasia Establishes First-Ever Aegean-China Rail Link
Turkish rail operator Pasifik Eurasia dispatched a 50‑container block train from Izmir to Shanghai, establishing the first direct Aegean‑China rail link. The service travels the Middle Corridor, crossing the Caspian Sea and Central Asia before reaching China. Historically, 90% of...
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Iran MP Plans for Strategic Management of Strait of Hormuz Using the Rial
Iran's parliamentary infrastructure commission chair announced a proposal to control transit through the Strait of Hormuz by banning Israeli‑linked and "hostile" vessels and requiring all permitted ships to pay guidance and security fees in Iranian rials. The plan also allows...
What Really Drives China’s Massive Trade Surplus
China posted a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025, the largest in its post‑reform era. The surplus is less a product of industrial policy than a structural savings‑investment gap amplified by an aging population and tight credit for private firms....
François Villeroy De Galhau: One Year on - Why the Transatlantic Partnership Remains of Mutual Interest
In a speech to the Atlantic Council, French central bank governor François Villeroy de Galhau highlighted that the global economy proved more resilient than expected over the past year. Global growth reached 3.4% in 2025, outpacing the 2.8% forecast, while...
Kontali: Salmon Sector in Slowdown as Supply Tightens, Trade and Demand Dynamics Shift, and Tensions Rise in Middle East
Kontali analysts warn that the Atlantic salmon industry is entering a supply-constrained phase as harvest‑ready biomass declines in Norway, Chile and Scotland. At the same time, demand is becoming more price‑sensitive, pushing producers toward product innovation and promotions. Europe’s market...
BOJ Likely to Keep Monetary Policy Unchanged in April - Report
Japan’s central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady at its April policy meeting, as uncertainty from the Middle East conflict weighs on decision‑making. Traders currently assign only about a 15% probability to an April hike, though odds climb...
Airfares, Petrol Pumps, Rent: Inflation to Jump Due to Iran War
The UK Office for National Statistics is set to report CPI inflation of 3.3% for March, up from 3% in February, as the fallout from the Iran‑US conflict lifts fuel costs. Petrol prices are projected to rise 6.5% and diesel...
Oil Prices Jump On Renewed US-Iran Tensions
Oil prices surged over 5% on Monday as U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks stalled, pushing Brent crude above $96 a barrel and WTI futures to $87.80. The dollar strengthened to a one‑week high while the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, tightening global...
‘Friendship to All’ No Longer Good Enough for Bangladesh
Bangladesh’s long‑standing "friendship to all" doctrine is no longer sufficient in a multipolar world where major powers vie for strategic advantage. The article argues that Dhaka must shift from passive non‑alignment to a proactive, multi‑aligned approach that leverages its geographic...
Polaris Global Equity Composite Q1 2026 Commentary
Polaris Capital’s Global Equity Composite posted a 5.91% net return in Q1 2026, outpacing the MSCI World Index, which fell 3.47%. The rally was fueled by energy and information‑technology stocks as the Strait of Hormuz closure spiked oil and fertilizer prices....
China Presses IMF for Quota Reform, Better Surveillance of Advanced Economies
China’s central bank governor Pan Gongsheng urged the IMF to act as a bulwark against rising unilateralism, calling for stronger surveillance of fiscal risks in major advanced economies and a faster quota‑share realignment. He warned that protectionist policies and geopolitical...
Why Gas Prices Go Up Fast and Take So Long to Fall
Gasoline wholesale prices surged 39.6% in a week, pushing the rack price to $3.35 per gallon and prompting station owners to raise retail pump prices by roughly 34% to $3.88. The cost of a full truckload for a typical New...
Labour Warns Signing India Trade Deal Would Be ‘Recklessly Irresponsible’
New Zealand and India are poised to sign a free‑trade agreement on 27 April in New Delhi, but the deal faces political headwinds at home. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says the FTA is a "tremendous opportunity," yet Labour leader Chris Hipkins warns...
Can a US-Governed ‘Pax Silica’ Hub Turn Philippines Into a Chip Powerhouse?
The United States is set to establish a 4,000‑acre “economic security zone” in the Philippines, operating under US common law, as the flagship hub of the Pax Silica initiative. The AI‑native investment acceleration hub is designed to move the country up...
Oil Flows to Lag Even if Hormuz Strait Reopens
The Strait of Hormuz, which moves roughly one‑fifth of global oil and gas, remains largely shut after Iran tightened control following a U.S. blockade. Even a temporary reopening will not instantly restore flows; analysts estimate an eight‑to‑twelve‑week lag for tanker...
Unemployment Could Reach 2.1 Million as Conflict Persists
The EY Item Club predicts UK unemployment could rise to 2.1 million, or 5.8%, by next year as the Iran war drives oil prices higher and strains supply chains. The surge in energy costs is expected to shave economic growth to...
China Voices Concern over US Seizure of Iranian Cargo Ship, Urges Further Talks
China’s foreign ministry voiced concern on Monday over the United States’ forced interception and seizure of the Iranian‑flagged cargo vessel Touska in the north Arabian Sea. The U.S. Navy fired on the ship after it attempted to breach a blockade...
USDJPY Erases Friday's Losses on Renewed US-Iran Tensions as Ceasefire Deadline Nears
The USDJPY pair erased Friday's losses as U.S. President Trump reaffirmed the Strait of Hormuz blockade, prompting traders to hedge ahead of a looming cease‑fire deadline. The pair bounced off the 158.00 support level, with buyers targeting the 162.00 handle,...
Andrew Bailey: Central Bank Independence – in Need of Further Thinking
Andrew Bailey argues that the traditional notion of central‑bank independence (CBI) is outdated, especially as banks now juggle both monetary and financial‑stability mandates. He traces CBI’s roots from 19th‑century ideas of aligned interests to the post‑1970s statutory frameworks that anchor...
China’s Trade with Iran, Gulf States Plunges as Strait of Hormuz Crisis Hits Energy Flows
China’s customs data show a dramatic contraction in trade with Iran and Gulf states in March, as the Strait of Hormuz crisis tightened shipping routes. Imports from Iran fell 48% year‑on‑year while exports to Tehran plunged 90%. Across eight Persian...
United States Once More Playing for Russia
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on April 19 that the sanctions waiver for Russian oil already on board vessels will be extended until May 16, following the brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The move reverses a March statement...
Hormuz Crisis Intensifies
The Strait of Hormuz experienced a rapid series of openings, closures, vessel attacks and a U.S. naval boarding over three days, heightening concerns among commercial shippers. Iran briefly announced the strait was open, then reversed the decision within 24 hours...
Canadians Ramp up Foreign Investing, Triggering Sharp Capital Outflow in February
Canadian investors bought a record $18.8 billion USD in foreign securities in February, the highest since March 2024, while foreign investors added only $4.6 billion USD to Canadian assets. The net capital outflow reached $14.2 billion USD, reversing the $26.2 billion USD inflow recorded in...
Q1 Growth Lays Strong Foundation, but High Energy Prices a Threat: HSBC
Vietnam posted 7.8% GDP growth in Q1 2026, the fastest expansion in 16 years, driven by a 23% trade surge to $249.5 billion and record tourism. The electronics sector and private consumption boosted growth, while services rose 8.18% on strong Lunar...
Strait Standoff Reshapes Fertiliser Trade and Crop Economics
Eight weeks of Middle‑East fighting have blocked roughly 24% of the world’s bulk fertiliser supply behind the Strait of Hormuz, stranding about 834,000 tonnes of urea. Shipping through the strait fell over 95%, driving nitrogen prices up nearly 40% in...
Iran's President Stresses Importance of Diplomacy While Noting Distrust of U.S
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called for using every diplomatic avenue to ease U.S. tensions, while insisting that vigilance and distrust toward Washington remain essential. The two‑week cease‑fire between Tehran and Washington expires on Wednesday, with U.S. officials heading to Islamabad...
Oil Prices Rebound on Escalating US-Iran Tensions as Ceasefire Deadline Approaches
Oil prices rebounded over the weekend as the United States maintained a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, despite earlier signals of a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran. The cease‑fire deadline looms tomorrow, and Iran’s decision to close the strait again...
China’s Silver Imports Jump to Record on Retail and Solar Demand
China set a new record by importing 836 tons of silver in March, far exceeding the 10‑year seasonal average of about 306 tons. The surge was driven primarily by heightened demand from retail investors buying physical silver and the country’s expansive solar‑panel...
XTransfer Export PMI: Emerging Markets Drive Growth, High-End Upgrading Opportunities Stand Out
XTransfer reported that emerging markets generated 73 % of its inbound cross‑border payment collections in Q1, rising 45 % year‑on‑year and outpacing China’s export growth to those regions. Collections from Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia surged 115 %, 97 % and 18 % respectively....
Unemployment to Peak at 5.8 per Cent as Jobs Market Faces ‘Biggest Hit’ Since Pandemic
The Item Club predicts UK unemployment will peak at 5.8% by mid‑2027, wiping out roughly 250,000 jobs as soaring energy costs from the Iran‑Hormuz conflict hit the labour market. Economic growth is expected to flatten at just 0.7% in 2026,...
China’s Lending Benchmark Stability Prompts Asian Markets Growth
China’s core lending benchmark, the 7‑day repo rate, has held steady at 2.5% for the third consecutive month, reinforcing liquidity in the country’s banking system. The stability has encouraged investors to increase exposure to Asian equities, driving a 1.8% rally...
FX Daily: Looking for a New Steady State for the Dollar
The dollar rebounded after the Strait of Hormuz was declared fully open, but analysts expect it to hover around the 97.5‑98 DXY level for the rest of the quarter. Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that prolonged high oil prices could...
Russia’s Inflation Fight Faces Push-Me-Pull-You Pressures
Russia’s inflation remained at 5.9% year‑over‑year in March, signalling that the early‑year demand dip was likely temporary. The Central Bank of Russia warns that real wages are rising faster than labour productivity, a dynamic that could keep price pressures sticky....
US-Iran Ceasefire Frays as Tensions Rise; Dollar Firms While Markets Hold Steady
U.S. and Iran’s ceasefire is showing signs of strain as naval blockades, Hormuz closures and a recent vessel interception raise geopolitical risk, yet markets have remained largely steady. The dollar edged higher and oil rebounded to just under $100 a...
Thailand Plans Law to Borrow B500bn and Lift Debt Ceiling
Thailand’s government is preparing an emergency decree to borrow up to 500 billion baht (approximately $13.5 billion) to address tight cash balances and rising external risks. Public debt currently sits at about 66% of GDP, close to the existing 70% ceiling, prompting...
Looks Like Adopting Electric Cars and Green Energy Would Be Wise
Petrol prices in Tanzania have jumped roughly 30% as the Iran‑U.S. conflict chokes the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that moves about one‑fifth of the world’s oil. The disruption raises transport costs, especially for landlocked African nations, and fuels broader...
Oil Prices Jumped and Stock Futures Fell on Renewed Iran Conflict
Oil prices surged on Sunday after a U.S. Navy destroyer seized an Iranian‑flagged cargo ship and Iran re‑imposed strict control over the Strait of Hormuz, attacking two Indian‑flagged vessels. The renewed tension in the strategic waterway revived fears of supply...
Asia Growth Forecasts Slashed as Iran War and Tariffs Threaten Supply Chains
International organisations have trimmed Asia‑Pacific growth outlooks as the US‑Israel war on Iran and lingering trade tensions raise costs and disrupt supply chains. The IMF now sees emerging and developing Asia expanding 4.9% in 2024, down from a 5.5% projection...
South Korea's Lee to Seek Big Boost in Economic Ties in Summit with PM Modi
President Lee Jae Myung’s state visit to New Delhi, the first in eight years, aims to dramatically expand South Korea‑India economic ties. Officials target a near‑doubling of bilateral trade to $50 bn by 2030, up from $25.7 bn, while addressing a $12.8 bn...
India Bonds Set to Start Week Lower on US-Iran Uncertainty
Indian government bonds are set to open lower on Monday as oil prices rebound over 6% amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions. The benchmark 6.48% 2035 bond is expected to trade between 6.88% and 6.94%, down from Friday’s 6.9049% close. A temporary...