Winter, Waves and the Return of the Unresolved
The Philippines is entering the "winter" phase of a multidecade Kondratieff cycle, marked by slowing growth and heightened risk aversion. The PSEi has been consolidating despite post‑pandemic earnings recovery, while corporate leverage relative to market value has risen to levels unseen since previous crises. Investors are demanding higher risk premiums as the economy transitions from an extended autumn of expansion to a corrective winter. Analysts argue that disciplined fiscal policy and household resilience are essential to navigate this transition and set the stage for a future spring.
China Begins Building US$1 Billion Hydropower Station in Cambodia Amid Energy Crisis
China’s state‑owned China National Heavy Machinery Corporation has broken ground on the Upper Tatay pumped‑storage hydropower project in Cambodia’s Koh Kong province. The $1 billion, 1‑gigawatt facility will act as a “green power bank,” storing excess solar and wind energy and releasing...
India to Benefit From US Extension of Russian Oil Waiver
The United States has extended a limited waiver for Russian oil transactions until May 16, 2026, covering cargoes already in transit or contracted before the cut‑off date. The extension, granted despite political opposition, does not signal a broader easing of sanctions...
Iran Says Strait of Hormuz Is Closed Again as Vessels Attempting to Cross Come Under Fire
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced the Strait of Hormuz is closed again after gunfire struck a tanker, reversing a brief reopening. Tehran warned any vessel attempting passage will be treated as cooperating with the United States and could be targeted. The...
Mexico, Spain and Brazil Call for Cuba’s Sovereignty to Be Protected
Mexico, Spain and Brazil announced a coordinated increase in humanitarian aid for Cuba while urging respect for the island’s sovereignty amid heightened U.S. pressure. The joint statement, issued at a left‑wing leaders’ gathering in Barcelona, highlighted concern over Cuba’s worsening...
War Revives Stagflation Dangers for Global Economy
The seven‑week Iran‑Israel conflict is now feeding into the next round of global PMI surveys, with Europe expected to show a broad deterioration while U.S. indicators remain relatively flat. Inflation pressures are rising as oil prices stay elevated, prompting stagflation...
War Revives Stagflation Dangers for Global Economy
The seven‑week Middle East war is reigniting stagflation concerns as growth slows while inflation climbs. Early purchasing‑manager index data show a twin hit to output and price pressures in the conflict’s second month. Upcoming business surveys across multiple economies will...
Traders Ready to Put War Behind Them Dial Up Risk
Investors are shifting toward lower‑rated investment‑grade bonds as the Iran‑U.S. truce appears to hold. In early April, net purchases of BBB‑rated debt reached $500 million, while $7.3 billion of higher‑rated A‑plus and above notes were sold, according to JPMorgan Chase. The move...
Inside the Race to Control the World’s Lithium Supply
Lithium production has exploded from 31,500 tonnes in 2015 to an estimated 290,000 tonnes in 2025, fueling a $150 billion battery market that grew 20% year‑over‑year. China now dominates both mining and refining, projected to control roughly half of the global lithium market...
Why Oil Prices Spike Before Supply Breaks (Strait of Hormuz Explained)
Oil prices often surge before any physical disruption in the Strait of Hormuz because market participants price the perceived risk of delayed or rerouted shipments. Recent Iranian military tightening and vessel warnings have heightened uncertainty, prompting insurers to raise premiums...
Iran’s Hormuz Whiplash Highlights Divide Within Regime as U.S. Blockade Tightens. ‘The Fight Between Different Factions Has Started’
Iran’s military announced the Strait of Hormuz closed again after a day of contradictory statements from the foreign ministry and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC publicly rebuked Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s claim that the waterway was fully...
Israel Riles Somalia Again in Naming Envoy to Somaliland
Israel appointed former Nairobi ambassador Michael Lotem as a non‑resident envoy to Somaliland, provoking a strong protest from Somalia that views the move as a violation of its sovereignty. Somaliland, which has operated with its own constitution, elections and currency...
Fresh Attacks Shatter ‘Open Hormuz’ Narrative as Iran Pushes New Maritime Regime
On April 18, three separate incidents—including a projectile strike on a containership, gunfire from IRGC‑linked gunboats on a tanker, and a near‑miss near a cruise ship—were reported off Oman, shattering the narrative that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open....
Vessels Attacked as Iran Reasserts Control of Hormuz
On Saturday, two commercial vessels were attacked in the Gulf of Oman, prompting alerts from the UK Maritime Trade Operations. The incidents followed Iran’s announcement that it would reassert strict military control over the Strait of Hormuz, despite earlier assurances...
Two Indian-Flagged Ships Attacked While Crossing Strait of Hormuz, Government Confirms
India’s Ministry of External Affairs confirmed that two Indian‑flagged crude‑oil tankers were attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 18. The incidents prompted India to summon Iran’s ambassador in New Delhi for a high‑level meeting. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri...
Ships Abort Hormuz Transit Attempts
At least 21 vessels attempting to exit the Gulf of Oman were forced to reverse course after Iran reinstated strict transit controls in the Strait of Hormuz. The reversal followed a brief reopening announced by Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Araghchi...
Product Tankers Exit Hormuz Amid Iran U‑turn
Three clean oil product tankers successfully exited the Strait of Hormuz on April 18 despite Iran abruptly reversing its earlier pledge to keep the waterway open for managed passage. All three vessels are flagged as high sanctions‑risk by Windward, yet...
Reeves Rightly Fears the Bond Market, but She Can Afford to Ditch One Unhelpful Rule | Phillip Inman
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is confronting rising bond‑vigilante pressure as UK borrowing costs jump to 4.9% on 10‑year gilts. She has pledged to cut the annual deficit below 2% by 2031, a target praised by IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva. Reeves’ fiscal plan...
The Rupture: How Europe Fell Out of Love with America
Europe’s once‑rock‑solid transatlantic bond is fraying as policy rifts with Washington deepen. Trade tariffs, divergent climate commitments, and disputes over digital regulation have eroded trust that was briefly restored by President Biden’s 2021 pledge. NATO funding debates and differing approaches...
ECB Moves Away From April Hike as Peace Talks Progress: Overview
European Central Bank officials are reassessing an April rate hike as US‑Iran peace talks ease oil price pressures and bring inflation in the euro zone above 4%. President Christine Lagarde emphasized a data‑dependent approach, while the Governing Council remains divided,...
How the Middle East Crisis Chokes East Africa’s Revenue Lifeline
The US‑Israel war on Iran has driven up global crude prices, sending East African fuel costs soaring. Governments in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Ethiopia rely on multiple taxes that can represent up to half of pump prices, sparking public...
Strait of Hormuz Shut, US Blockade Intensifies, and Gunfire Reported
The Strait of Hormuz was abruptly closed after Iranian Revolutionary Guard gunships attacked a tanker and a cargo vessel, prompting the UK military to confirm the incidents. The United States responded with an intensified naval blockade while President Biden signaled...
Closed? Open? Closed? Why Is Iran Changing Course on the Strait of Hormuz?
Iran abruptly re‑imposed shipping restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz just hours after announcing it was fully open to commercial vessels. Chinese analysts interpret the move as a leverage tactic ahead of a looming cease‑fire deadline and potential talks with...
Europeans Tried to Win over the US This Week in DC. Their Efforts Were Lost in Translation.
European finance leaders gathered in Washington for the IMF‑World Bank spring meetings, aiming to rally U.S. support for the continent’s economic challenges, from the Iran war fallout to non‑bank lending risks. Their messaging, however, was eclipsed by U.S. focus on...
Turkey Says US Withdrawal From European Security Architecture Could Be 'Destructive'
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned that a U.S. partial withdrawal from the European security architecture would be destructive if not coordinated. President Donald Trump has threatened to pull the United States out of NATO after European allies refused to...
Middle East Conflict Deepens Hunger in East Africa
The six‑week Iran‑Israel‑US war is choking fertilizer, fuel and shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, driving a 68% surge in global urea prices and forcing East African farmers to cut or forgo planting for the 2026‑27 harvest. Higher input...
Trump Expects His Fed Chair Nominee to Cut Interest Rates. Here’s How Kevin Warsh Might Try to Do It.
President Donald Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell, signaling a push for lower interest rates. Warsh plans to offset a $1 trillion balance‑sheet reduction—an action he equates to a 50‑basis‑point rate hike—by cutting the federal‑funds rate,...
Brazil's Lula Calls on Permanent Members of UN Security Council to Change Behaviour
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva used a progressive leaders summit in Barcelona to criticize the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, accusing them of failing to prevent the war in Iran. He warned against daily...
Iran’s Navy Tells Ships Strait of Hormuz Shut Again, Two Vessels Report Gunfire
Iran’s navy broadcast a VHF message declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed again, reversing a prior notice that allowed limited lanes. On Saturday, at least two commercial vessels reported gunfire from IRGC gunboats near the Qeshm and Larak islands, forcing...
Ukraine Strikes Two Russian Refineries, Baltic Sea Port
Ukrainian drone forces struck two oil refineries in Russia’s Samara region and set fire to the Vysotsk port terminal in the Leningrad region, according to local governors and Ukrainian officials. The attacks are part of a broader campaign that has...
Major Rare Earth Discoveries in Scandinavia Raise Hopes of Easing Europe’s Dependence on China
Historic rare‑earth discoveries in Norway and Sweden have dramatically expanded Europe’s domestic resource base. The Fensfeltet deposit in southern Norway was revised to 15.9 million tonnes of rare‑earth oxides, while Sweden’s Per Geijer and Norra Kärr sites together could satisfy up to 18%...
Uganda’s Taxation of Smartphones, Mobile Money Dents Financial Inclusion Quest
Uganda’s drive toward a digital economy is being hampered by taxes on mobile‑money withdrawals and entry‑level smartphones. A 0.5% excise duty on the full value of withdrawals and combined 10% import duty plus 18% VAT on low‑cost phones raise device...
Iran Says that Strait of Hormuz Is Closed Once Again, Situation Returns to Previous State
Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz will revert to strict control, effectively re‑closing the waterway after a brief, limited reopening. Tehran blames the United States for not guaranteeing full freedom of navigation, demanding vessel approvals for any transit. Shipping...
Tankers Transit Hormuz Despite Iran Blockade Warning
Two tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz eastbound on April 18, marking the first crude shipments since Iran announced a temporary reopening of the waterway. The VLCC FPMC C Lord, partially loaded in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, headed toward Fujairah...
FSB Warns of ‘Triple Whammy’ Crisis as Private Credit Threat to Global Markets Worsens
The Financial Stability Board warned that a convergence of tighter funding, war‑driven volatility, and strains in non‑bank finance could create a "triple whammy" for global markets. Private‑credit funds, a $1.8 trillion sector, have already hit redemption caps after investors sought to...
Rwanda Secures $251m Low-Cost Loan for Projects, Budget
Rwanda has secured a €213 million ($251 million) 15‑year low‑cost loan from Société Générale and Standard Chartered, backed by an IDA guarantee and a six‑year grace period. The financing will fund infrastructure projects and provide budget support as the country seeks to...
Colombia's Petro Warns of Latin American 'Rebellion' If US Doesn't Rethink Policy
Colombian President Gustavo Petro warned that U.S. pressure on dissenting Latin American leaders could spark a "rebellion" against Washington's influence. Petro, who is on an OFAC sanctions list for alleged drug‑trade links, said the sanctions are being used as a...
Lutnick Shuts Down Talk of Any Chinese Investment in US Autos
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told a Semafor audience that Chinese automakers, including BYD, will not be allowed to invest in U.S. auto manufacturing, responding with a firm “no.” He reiterated the stance in remarks to Bloomberg, saying “not cars,...
Oil Plunges, Stocks Jump as Iran Declares Hormuz Open
Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is fully open, ending a blockade that had disrupted one‑fifth of global oil flows. The news sent Brent and WTI crude prices below $90 a barrel, a 9 percent drop from their recent highs near...
Greek, Indian Tankers U-Turn Before Hormuz Amid Reopening Doubt
Several Greek and Indian crude tankers reversed course in the Persian Gulf on Saturday after Iran sent mixed messages about the Strait of Hormuz’s openness. The six vessels, holding roughly 8.3 million barrels of non‑Iranian crude, were heading toward the strait...
How the Iran War Could Speed the Decline of the US Dollar
The article examines how the Iran war and broader geopolitical shocks could accelerate the gradual erosion of the U.S. dollar’s share of global reserves. While the dollar still commands 56% of foreign‑exchange holdings, its dominance has slipped from a peak...
LNG Ships Move Toward Hormuz After Iran Says Strait Is Open
Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is open for commercial shipping, prompting several LNG tankers to approach the waterway. Two empty Abu Dhabi‑owned vessels and three Qatari‑laden ships were spotted near the eastern side of Hormuz, potentially marking the first...
Govt Strengthens DGFT Norms Committees to Speed up Export Authorisations, Cut Delays
The Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry has overhauled the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) Norms Committees to accelerate Advance Authorisation and Duty‑Free Import Authorisation approvals. Meetings are now fixed fortnightly, case prioritisation is enforced, and monitoring tightened. Technical...
Oil Prices Retreat While Stock Indices Surge Following US-Iran Ceasefire
Oil prices fell sharply after a US‑Iran cease‑fire, while US equity indices surged. Brent slipped 7.6% to $91.87 a barrel and WTI dropped 9.6% to $85.57. The Dow Jones rose 1.8% to 49,447 points, the S&P 500 gained 1.2% to 7,126,...
UK Bears Scars to Economy, Trump Ties Even as War Risks Subside
The IMF slashed its 2026 growth forecast for the United Kingdom to just 0.8%, citing the lingering effects of the Iran‑related war and a severe energy shock. Inflation is projected to climb to about 3.3% in March, prompting the Bank...
Bangladesh Continues Talks with IMF on Key Reforms Tied to Loan
Bangladesh will keep negotiating with the International Monetary Fund on reforms tied to a $5.5 billion loan, as Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury met IMF officials in Washington. The discussions covered revenue collection, banking sector changes and broader financial reforms,...
Strategic Autonomy or Ambiguity? India’s Gulf Dilemma
India’s Gulf policy is marked by cautious strategic autonomy amid the Iran‑Israel‑US crisis. New Delhi’s reliance on energy imports through the Strait of Hormuz, deep economic ties with Gulf states, and a sizable diaspora constrain overt diplomatic action. While Pakistan...
Europe Decides on a Multilateral Mission in Hormuz. Iran Opens the Strait
European leaders met in Paris and agreed to consider a multilateral mission to safeguard navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, but only after a cease‑fire ends the Iran‑U.S. conflict. Iran’s foreign minister announced the immediate reopening of the strait to...
What People in Power Think the Impact of the Iran War Will Be
World leaders gathered at the IMF/World Bank spring meetings to assess the fallout from the Iran‑U.S. conflict that shut the Strait of Hormuz. Finance ministers from the G7, G20 and major central banks voiced concern over energy shortages, rising food...
Book Launch: World War Trade: Conflict, Containment, and the Emergent World Trading Order
Richard Baldwin’s new book *World War Trade* argues that the 2025 US‑China trade weaponization did not end globalization but reshaped it. While markets fell and supply chains strained, the majority of economies responded with restraint and a surge of new...