Airlines Fear Jet-Fuel Rationing Due to Middle East War
IATA head Willie Walsh warned that the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz could force jet‑fuel rationing in Europe within weeks. An International Energy Agency study suggests fuel inventories may run dry in six weeks, potentially triggering flight cancellations by the end of May. The shortage is already prompting airlines such as Wizz Air to report localized fuel gaps at Italian airports, while Asian carriers have begun trimming schedules. EU officials are considering a fuel‑sharing plan to cushion the impact if the crisis persists.
US Again Allows More Russian Oil Sales to Help Control Prices Amid Iran War
The U.S. Treasury issued a temporary license on April 17 allowing the sale of Russian crude already loaded on tankers before that date, extending the waiver until May 16. The move is intended to ease the surge in global fuel prices triggered...
Trump Extends Sanctions Exemption on Some Russian Oil as High Gas Prices Persist
The Treasury Department announced a one‑month extension of the sanctions exemption for certain Russian crude, now running through May 16, 2026. The move comes just two days after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the waiver would not be renewed, and follows...
Regulatory Relief May Dent Philippine Bank Profits–S&P
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas announced temporary relief measures—including six‑month loan payment grace periods and up to a year’s deferment for agricultural loans—to cushion borrowers from the oil‑price shock caused by the Middle East war. The regulator also urged banks...
Bessent’s Busy Week Clashes with Global Thirst for U.S. Attention
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s packed schedule during the IMF‑World Bank spring meetings drew sharp criticism from European allies who felt the United States was disengaging from key multilateral forums. While Bessent attended a brief G20 session, he missed the...
Vietnam Gains Approval for Pomelo, Lemon Exports to China
Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Environment and China’s General Administration of Customs signed a phytosanitary protocol that clears Vietnamese pomelos and lemons for export to China. The agreement, finalized during President To Lam’s state visit, requires all growing areas and packing...
The Week in Charts: IMF Growth Forecast, Inflation Climbs, TCS Payout, RBI Penalties
India slipped to sixth place in the IMF’s nominal GDP ranking for FY25‑26 and FY26‑27, falling behind the United Kingdom after a base‑year revision to 2022‑23 trimmed earlier over‑estimates. Retail inflation accelerated in March, spurred by higher fuel and food...
Why China Is Urgently Looking to North Africa as the Energy Crisis Rolls On
China is accelerating its North African investments as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, turning long‑term Belt and Road projects into urgent energy‑security measures. Beijing is committing billions to infrastructure, including a $4.7 bn El Hamdania megaport in Algeria, a $6.5 bn...
Stoxx 600 Jumps More than 1% After Iran Declares Strait of Hormuz Open
The Stoxx 600 jumped 1.6% on Friday, marking its fourth consecutive weekly gain after Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz was open for commercial traffic. The reopening triggered an 11% plunge in oil prices, lifting European equity markets while Eurozone...
The Real Outcome of the Iran War: America Is Now the World’s Most Secure ...
The United States is leveraging the Iran‑Hormuz standoff to reposition itself as a secure, domestic energy supplier while channeling capital back to American markets. Oil futures have slipped into the low $70s‑$80s as the strait shows signs of reopening, prompting...
"Energy Dominance" In Action
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has tightened global oil supplies, prompting buyers to turn to alternative sources. U.S. crude exports jumped to 5.2 million bpd, the highest level in seven months, while net imports fell to a record‑low 66,000 bpd, nearly...
Marcos Suspends LPG, Kerosene Excise Taxes for 3 Months
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed Executive Order No. 114, suspending excise taxes on LPG and kerosene for three months, effective immediately. The suspension applies except when LPG is used for petrochemicals or motive power and when kerosene serves aviation fuel....
Fiscal Institutions Matter Big Time for Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Economies
IMF research finds low‑income countries capture less than 1 % of global FDI, with inflows skewed toward low‑R&D sectors. Empirical analysis shows that robust fiscal institutions and disciplined public finances are the strongest predictors of both the quantity and the R&D...
Four Scenarios for Geopolitics After the Iran War
Iran announced it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz for vessels on pre‑approved routes, even as President Donald Trump pledged to keep a U.S. blockade on Iranian ships. The cease‑fire remains fragile, and both sides are still negotiating a settlement....
Thailand Banks on EU Trade Deal
Thailand is accelerating negotiations on an EU‑Thailand free‑trade agreement as the EU finalised a landmark FTA with India. Eight rounds of talks have produced agreements on trade remedies, public‑health exceptions and market‑access rules, bringing the total to 11 of 24...
In Wake of Iran War, Chinese Manufacturers Recalibrate Overseas Expansion Plans
Chinese manufacturers are reassessing overseas expansion after the Iran war heightened geopolitical risk and shipping costs. Domestic profit margins have narrowed while capacity utilization sits near 85%, prompting firms to seek higher‑margin markets abroad. Companies are scaling back projects in...
Banque De France Governor François Villeroy De Galhau: ‘Europe and America Will Either Win Together or Fall Together’
François Villeroy de Galhau, governor of the Banque de France, warned that Europe and the United States must cooperate or risk mutual decline. He highlighted that global growth reached 3.4% in 2025, outpacing IMF forecasts, while the euro area posted...
Fast-Tracking US Critical Minerals Could Backfire without Safeguards, Oxfam Warns
The United States is accelerating permits and financing for critical‑mineral mines under a 2025 executive order aimed at reducing foreign dependence. Oxfam America cautions that rushing projects without strong environmental and community safeguards could create costly legal battles and delays....
The Bigger Energy Lesson Behind Iran’s Control Over the Strait of Hormuz
Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial traffic, prompting a sharp dip in oil prices and a modest rally in equity markets. The reopening, however, does not erase the underlying geopolitical risk that the strait can be...
Polymarket Odds of Hormuz Strait Traffic Normalizing by End of May Spike to 73%
Polymarket’s prediction market showed odds climbing to 73% that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by the end of May, after a brief peak of 82% following Iran’s announcement of a temporary reopening. The cease‑fire deal prompted a...
Hedge Funds’ Record Treasury Bets Risk Sending ‘Shockwaves’ Through the Global Bond Market, Apollo Says
Hedge funds now own roughly 8% of the $31 trillion U.S. Treasury market, the highest share on record, according to Apollo Global Management. Their positions are heavily leveraged, backed by about $6 trillion in repo and prime‑brokerage funding. Apollo’s chief economist warns...
Dow Jones Futures, Oil Prices In Focus As Iran, Hormuz News Turns
Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz is now under strict military control, prompting U.S. plans to board Iran‑linked tankers and sending crude oil futures down 13.2% to about $83.85 a barrel. Dow futures opened modestly lower, while U.S. equities...
Fogs Lift a Bit, Animal Spirits a Lot (E258)
Risk assets surged the week ending April 17, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to all‑time highs. Fixed‑income markets rallied across the curve, with emerging‑market bonds leading the gains, while the belly of the yield curve saw the most pronounced rise....
Scoop: Inside the Historic U.S.-Cuba Negotiations in Havana
U.S. State Department officials traveled to Havana for the first U.S. government flight since President Obama’s 2016 visit, meeting with Cuban officials including Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, the grandson of Raul Castro. The delegation offered to restore internet access via...
Strait of Hormuz Deal Sees Munis Firmer, USTs Rally
Municipal bonds rose on Friday as U.S. Treasuries rallied following the announcement that commercial vehicles can now transit the Strait of Hormuz. Bank of America analysts said the cease‑fire optimism creates a liquidity‑driven, risk‑on environment that is neutral for duration...
SCHO: Still A Bit Wary Of Duration
The Schwab Short‑Term US Treasury ETF (SCHO) carries a 1.9‑year duration, making it more sensitive to 2‑year Treasury yields than its name suggests. A recent cease‑fire in the Middle East has eased energy‑price pressures, lowering inflation risk and reviving expectations...
Dow Rises 868 Points Amid Gulf Ceasefire: Stock Market Today
Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz was fully open following a Lebanon‑Israel cease‑fire, sending West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude down 8.8% to $83 and $91 per barrel. The oil shock sparked a broad equity rally, with the Dow Jones...
MarineTraffic Shows Hormuz Strait Vessel Activity After Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Deal
MarineTraffic data released on April 17 shows a surge in tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz following the Israel‑Lebanon ceasefire agreement. The platform recorded an average of 45 vessels per day, a 30% increase from the previous week and...
Iran Says Strait of Hormuz Is ‘Completely Open’
Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is "completely open" following the Israel‑Hezbollah cease‑fire, but Washington reiterated its naval blockade, citing unfinished transactions with Tehran. The U.S. Central Command reported 19 ships intercepted since the blockade began, underscoring lingering tension. Oil...
US Section 301 Probe: India Textile Body TEXPROCIL Pushes Back on USTR Excess Capacity Allegations
TEXPROCIL submitted a formal representation to the U.S. Trade Representative contesting Section 301 allegations that India’s cotton textile sector suffers from structural excess capacity and forced‑labour violations. The Indian Ministry of Commerce echoed the industry’s stance, emphasizing that over 80% of...
US Oil Shipments Via Panama Canal Near 4-Year High
U.S. crude shipments through the Panama Canal have surged to roughly 200,000 barrels per day, the highest level since July 2022. The spike is driven by Asian refiners seeking an alternative to Middle‑East oil after a week‑long disruption in the...
Iran, Magyar, Mythos and the Pope
Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz fully open, ending a nearly seven‑week de‑facto blockade. In response, President Donald Trump ordered a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and warned of attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure as a pending deal expires...
Hormuz Is (Apparently) Unblocked. Energy Markets Remain a Mess
Iran’s foreign minister announced that commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is "completely open," a sentiment echoed by President Donald Trump. The news sent Brent crude futures tumbling more than 10% to $89 a barrel, their lowest level since...
Dollar Drops on Middle East Peace Optimism
The dollar index slipped to a seven‑week low as optimism over a potential US‑Iran peace deal eased safe‑haven demand. An 11% plunge in WTI crude lowered inflation expectations, adding dovish pressure on the Federal Reserve. Fed’s San Francisco President Mary...
Why Swift Is Pushing New Standards for Cross-Border Payments
Swift is introducing a new retail cross‑border payment framework that promises transparent fees, real‑time FX rates, and predictable processing times. The initiative, backed by more than 25 banks across 11 corridors, aims to give consumers the same experience they enjoy...
Greek Shipowner Sends Biggest Oil Tanker Yet Through Hormuz
Greek shipowner Dynacom Tankers sent its Very Large Crude Carrier Atokos, a 2 million‑barrel supertanker, through the Strait of Hormuz with its transponder off, marking the largest non‑Iranian vessel to use the waterway since the conflict began. The transit brings Dynacom’s...
Hold the Champagne: Oil Recovery Faces Weeks of Delay as Supply Chain Shocks Deepen
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced oil tankers onto longer, less efficient routes, leaving only seven empty vessels to transit the strait and no fully laden ships delivering product. Around 330 compliant tankers and 102 vessels carrying...
European Steel Mills Signal €50-70/T Long Product Hikes
European steel producers in Italy and Germany announced €50‑70 per tonne ($59‑$82.5) price hikes for long products, to be offered next week. The increases reflect rising energy costs, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and tighter EU safeguards that bolster domestic...
Fed's Waller: Job Market Break Even Rate Now Likely Around Zero
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the job‑market break‑even rate – the unemployment level that would allow the Fed to keep policy unchanged – is now effectively zero. He warned that a prolonged Middle East conflict could push inflation higher...
Fifteen South American People Deported From the US Arrive in DR Congo
The United States has begun sending deported migrants to the Democratic Republic of Congo, with the first group of fifteen Latin American nationals arriving in Kinshasa overnight. The cohort includes seven women and is part of a broader bilateral arrangement...
Premier Alliance Taps UAE’s Khor Fakkan for War-Diverted Cargoes
The Premier Alliance has designated the UAE port of Khor Fakkan as an interim transshipment hub for its Middle East‑Asia‑US West Coast GS2 service. The move follows a March suspension of calls at Arabian Gulf ports after missile and drone attacks...
Significant Differences Remain Between Iran-US, Including on Nuclear Issues, Senior Iranian Official Says
Iran and the United States still face major gaps, especially over nuclear details, according to a senior Iranian official. The official warned that the cease‑fire in the Gulf war remains conditional on U.S. compliance with its terms, including keeping the...
De-Risking the Rare Earths Supply Chain With Sprott's REXC
The Sprott Rare Earths Ex‑China ETF (REXC) launched on April 15, offering investors a focused way to capture rare‑earth demand while sidestepping Chinese exposure. The fund tracks the Nasdaq Sprott Rare Earths Ex‑China Index and holds 34 companies across Australia, Canada...
Gold Soars As Iran Reopens The Strait Of Hormuz For All Ships
Gold prices jumped on Friday as Iran announced the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz through April 22, easing a key oil‑shipping chokepoint. The front‑month COMEX gold contract rose 1.61% to $4,885.50 per ounce, while silver gained 4.4% to $82.47...
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Stock Market Today: Indexes Soar, Oil Dives After Iran's Foreign Minister Says Strait of Hormuz 'Completely Open' During Ceasefire; Dow...
Iran’s foreign minister announced the Strait of Hormuz was "completely open" during a 10‑day Israel‑Lebanon cease‑fire, sending West Texas Intermediate down 11% to about $84 a barrel and Brent to $89. The plunge hammered the S&P 500 energy sector, which fell...
Trump Claims Iran to Suspend Nuclear Programme, with Deal to End War ‘Mostly Complete’
President Donald Trump announced that Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely and that a deal to end the U.S.-Iran war is "mostly complete." Simultaneously, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open for commercial traffic during the 10‑day...
Liquidity Drain Underway, Will It Even Matter?
Liquidity is draining as the Treasury General Account climbs and Federal Reserve reserve balances slip toward $2.8‑$2.9 trillion. Historically, the second half of April sees equity weakness, yet the S&P 500 has risen about 2.5% since April 14, 2026, defying the pattern. Overnight...
Lebanon President Says Future Deal Will Not Cede Territory
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun announced that any future agreement with Israel will not involve ceding territory or compromising Lebanon's national rights. The remarks came in his first televised address since the U.S.-brokered ceasefire that halted fighting between Israel and Hezbollah...
Senior Iranian Official: Significant Differences Remain, Serious Talks Required
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that substantial gaps remain in the nuclear talks with the United States, especially on nuclear issues, and that serious negotiations are still required. He indicated a preliminary agreement could be struck within days, potentially...
Lebanon: Part of Mideast Settlement?
President Donald Trump used a Truth Social post to announce a U.S.-brokered ceasefire after a phone call with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun. The declaration follows a Washington meeting between Israeli Ambassador Michael Lieter and Lebanese counterpart Nada Hamadeh, attended by...