Middle East Conflict Weighs on Thai Banks as Profits Slip
Thai banks entered 2026 with a cautious outlook after Q1 earnings fell sharply amid heightened Middle East tensions and a global energy shock. SCB X posted an 18% net‑income decline to 10.2 bn baht (≈$317 m), missing forecasts. Kasikornbank’s profit slipped 3% once a one‑off investment gain was stripped out. Bangkok Bank reported a 13% earnings drop to about 11 bn baht (≈$342 m).
ASEAN’s Rules of Origin Need a Rethink
ASEAN’s Rules of Origin (ROO) under ATIGA permit goods with predominantly foreign components to qualify for preferential treatment, undermining incentives for intra‑regional sourcing. Since the ROO shift to a Change‑in‑Tariff‑Classification (CTC) model, intra‑ASEAN trade has slipped to just 20‑30% of...
Suspending the EU-Israel Trade Deal Is Now the only Tool Left for Brussels
The European Union has yet to suspend its Association Agreement with Israel despite mounting evidence of war crimes and crimes against humanity. The article argues that suspension is the only remaining tool to uphold a rules‑based international order and to...
UK Jobs Market Was in a Fragile State – Even Before Iran War Threatened Recovery
The UK unemployment rate slipped to 4.9% in the three months to February, but the labour market remains fragile as economic inactivity rose and pay‑rolled jobs fell by 65,000 year‑on‑year in March. Wage growth slowed to 3.8% annually, the weakest...
War in Iran Is Causing Biggest Energy Crisis in History, IEA Says
The International Energy Agency’s chief, Fatih Birol, warned that the war involving Iran, the United States and Israel has triggered the worst energy crisis in history. The conflict has choked the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for about 20% of...
UK Unemployment Rate Drops Unexpectedly
The UK unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.9% in the February quarter, outpacing the 5.2% forecast. The decline largely reflects a rise in the inactivity rate, now 21%, as fewer students are seeking work. Meanwhile, wages grew at a 3.6%...
ASX Wobbles as Oil Stocks and Gold Miners Fall, Wall Street Slips
The ASX 200 barely moved, closing at 8,949.40 after a 3.9‑point dip, as investors weighed the latest US‑Iran peace‑talks and easing oil prices. Energy giants Woodside and Santos slipped about 1.5‑1.8% while coal producers Yancoal and Whitehaven jumped 3.8% on...
Drop in UK Unemployment Isn’t All It Seems
The UK unemployment rate slipped from 5.2% to 4.9%, but the decline stems largely from a rise in economic inactivity rather than new jobs. Private‑sector payrolls are still falling, with a 1.6% annualised drop driven by hospitality and retail. Recent...
Commercial Bank in East Africa to Integrate USDA Payments
Kenya’s cross‑border remittance flow hit a record $5 bn in 2024, outpacing tea and horticulture exports, yet settlement still takes four to five days via costly SWIFT corridors. Stablecoin usage surged, with $3.3 bn processed in the past year, highlighting demand for...
What Does Pakistan Gain From Its Iran–US Diplomacy?
Pakistan has positioned itself as the chief mediator in the renewed Iran‑U.S. talks, hosting a second round in Islamabad after President Donald Trump’s invitation. The move reflects Islamabad’s urgent need to ease energy shortages, protect its 900‑km Iran border, and...
Rates Spark: Bonds Losing Their Edge as a Hedge
Bonds are losing their appeal as a hedge against equities as correlations between German Bunds and stock indices hit record highs, while long‑end inflation expectations remain anchored. Front‑end rates are volatile amid lingering Middle East tensions, but the longer end...
ONS Latest | Unemployment Falls Unexpectedly but Wage Growth Slows in Fragile Labour Market
The UK Office for National Statistics reported unemployment fell to 4.9% in February, marking the first decline after months of rise. At the same time, regular pay growth slowed to 3.6% year‑on‑year and total pay to 3.8%, the weakest pace...
Aluminium Recyclers Push for Duty Cut as Supply Tightens Globally
India imports 85% of its aluminium scrap and faces a 2.5% customs duty that raises costs for downstream users. Geopolitical tensions and the EU’s planned export curbs have tightened global scrap supplies, prompting the Material Recycling Association of India to...
Asia’s Largest Oil Buyers Running Low on Hormuz Alternatives
Asia’s biggest oil importers—including China, India, Japan and South Korea—have relied on a patchwork of alternative routes and supplies for more than seven weeks of war in the Persian Gulf, which has threatened the strategic Strait of Hormuz. These workarounds,...
Report: With EUDR Delayed, Beef Imports From Brazil’s Amazon Climb Higher
Earthsight reports EU beef imports from Brazil’s Amazon jumped from €142 million (≈$155 million) in 2024 to €238 million (≈$260 million) in 2025, all sourced from Mato Grosso, Brazil’s second‑largest deforestation hotspot. The surge follows a doubling of EU‑authorized slaughterhouses in the region. The EU...
FX Daily: Dollar to Weigh up Warsh
Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing is set to dominate U.S. monetary policy headlines, with markets expecting a dovish stance on rates and a hawkish approach to the Fed’s balance‑sheet reduction. A potential Iranian delegation to peace talks in Pakistan is...
Geopolitics and FX Cloud Treasury Outlook - Weekly Roundup: 21 April
Treasury teams are feeling heightened pressure from geopolitics, with 88% of respondents expressing moderate to high concern, prompting a defensive shift toward money‑market funds and early AI adoption for cash forecasting. European banks see digital assets as a modest threat,...
Southeast Asia Holds the Key to Unlocking Korean Impasse
Inter‑Korean diplomacy remains stalled, prompting Southeast Asian states to step in as mediators. Vietnam, Indonesia and Laos are leveraging historic ties with Pyongyang—Vietnam’s “bamboo diplomacy,” Laos’s ASEAN chair role, and Indonesia’s restored embassy—to facilitate back‑channel dialogue. Simultaneously, they are deepening...
China Suddenly Grants New Beef Licences to Australia
China’s customs authority approved eight new Australian beef facilities – six cold‑storage centres and two abattoirs, including Thomas Foods International’s Murray Bridge plant – and upgraded licences for 13 existing exporters to ship chilled beef. The changes effectively add 15...
Beyond Survival, What Palestine’s Resilience Means for Investors
Palestine’s private sector continues operating despite a 2023 economic shock that pushed real GDP to a decade‑low and caused massive job losses. The economy’s resilience is now being seen as an economic capability, not just a humanitarian virtue, as firms...
AU Protocol on Digital Trade Expected to Boost DPI in Africa: AfCFTA SG
African Union Secretary‑General Wamkele Mene said the newly adopted AU Protocol on Digital Trade could catalyze massive investment in digital public infrastructure (DPI) across the continent. The protocol, backed by eight annexes covering cross‑border payments, data flows, digital identity, fintech, AI...
Indian Debt Funds Cut Hedges as Oil Risks Inflate Rate-Hike Bets
Indian debt fund managers, including Bandhan AMC and ICICI Prudential, are unwinding overnight indexed swap (OIS) hedges as soaring oil prices and the Iran conflict push market expectations for higher interest rates. The two‑year swap rate remains near 6%, roughly...
Stablecoin Risks Not to Be Ignored Reminds BIS Official
Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Governor Pablo Hernández de Cos warned that stablecoins, while offering utility for institutions, present significant risks to national financial systems. He highlighted that emerging economies, already struggling with capital controls and dollarisation, are especially vulnerable...
The Forces of Scarcity Hitting Asia May Soon Spread Across the World
The United States and Israel’s war on Iran has triggered a rapid, region‑wide scarcity shock across the Asia‑Pacific. Jet fuel prices have doubled and air traffic has fallen by roughly a third, while manufacturers face fuel‑driven cuts to output, from...
Remittances to HCMC Decline in Q1 Amid Global Headwinds
Remittances to Ho Chi Minh City fell 16.9% year‑on‑year in Q1 2026, dropping to $2 billion, after a 15.6% decline from the previous quarter. The State Bank of Vietnam attributes the slide to global economic uncertainty, high inflation, monetary tightening, and geopolitical tensions....
Uganda’s Power Paradox: Cheap for Industry, Costly for Households
Uganda offers the continent’s second‑lowest industrial electricity tariff at $0.055/kWh, yet its residential price sits at $0.206/kWh, the second‑highest among COMESA members. The disparity stems from a deliberate policy to subsidize manufacturing and spur industrialisation, even as the country enjoys...
K Food Exports Set to Take Major Hit After Losing Middle East Growth
South Korea’s K‑Food exports rose 4% YoY to $2.56 bn in Q1 2026, driven largely by the Middle East, which contributed $106 m and 32.3% of the growth. Escalating conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran disrupted logistics, causing a sharp...
Kudlow - Monday, April 20
Fox Business aired a 41‑minute episode of "Kudlow" on Monday, April 20, where host Larry Kudlow examined three high‑profile issues: the Iranian regime’s aggressive posture, U.S. Special Counsel Jack Smith’s ongoing investigations, and the risk of a Hormuz Strait blockade....
The New Trade Order
At Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called for a "new trade order" to correct imbalances in the global economy, invoking Václav Havel’s 1978 essay on powerlessness. He urged multinationals and governments to prioritize supply‑chain resilience, fair labor standards, and climate‑aligned tariffs....
How to Fight an Economic War
At Davos, former Bank of England governor Mark Carney warned that globalization has morphed into economic warfare, with great powers weaponising tariffs, finance and supply‑chain dependencies. The United States and China now dominate key chokepoints—U.S. dollar payments, AI chips and...
Kim’s Dangerous Liaisons
In June 2024 Russian President Vladimir Putin made his first trip to North Korea in 25 years, culminating in the signing of a Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Kim Jong Un. The ceremony featured extensive North Korean pageantry, underscoring the regime’s propaganda style....
Is the Iran War Hurting the US Economy? Markets Eye Retail Sales Data
Markets reacted cautiously after the U.S. and Iran broke their cease‑fire, with oil prices spiking and equities, bonds and gold slipping. Traders noted a rapid drop in S&P 500 futures volume, the lowest since early April, indicating uncertainty over policy direction....
April Inflation to Breach 5%, Erode Recovery Gains, Says UA&P
University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) projects Philippine inflation to exceed 5% in April, driven by an oil‑price shock linked to the Middle East conflict, matching the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) outlook. The breach would push full‑year inflation...
PH Dollar Deficit Swells to over One-Year High on Middle East Crisis
In March 2026 the Philippines recorded a $2.6 billion balance‑of‑payments deficit, the widest since January 2025, as soaring energy prices tied to the Middle‑East crisis forced higher dollar outflows. The first‑quarter gap widened to $5.3 billion, 79% higher than a year earlier,...
The Commodities Feed: Peace Talk Optimism Clouds Reality
Oil markets rallied on optimism that renewed US‑Iran peace talks could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but analysts warn the price gains under‑price the ongoing supply disruption. European gas prices remain low, with the Dutch TTF below €40/MWh despite a...
Redfin Economists’ Weekly Take: All Eyes on Fed Succession as Mortgage-Rate Swings Ease
Mortgage-rate swings have calmed as the United States and Iran move toward a peace agreement, reducing market volatility. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s leadership transition is back in focus, with nominee Kevin Warsh scheduled for a Senate confirmation...
Oil Falls as Investors Assess Mixed Messaging on Iran Peace Talks Ahead of Ceasefire Deadline
Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as investors weighed mixed signals from the United States and Iran ahead of a looming cease‑fire deadline. Vice President JD Vance is expected to head a U.S. delegation to Pakistan, while Iran’s parliamentary speaker warned...
Russia Threatens Europe as Ukraine Escalates Strikes on Putin’s Oil Industry
Ukraine has dramatically escalated its drone campaign against Russia’s oil terminals, pipelines and refineries, slashing export capacity by roughly 40 percent. The surge reflects a maturing domestic drone industry that in March 2026 launched more cross‑border attacks than Russia for...
Turning Point? Clean Energy Met 100% of World’s New Power Needs in 2025: Report
Ember’s 2025 Global Electricity Review shows clean‑power generation rose by 887 TWh, outpacing the 849 TWh increase in total electricity demand. Renewables supplied 34 percent of global electricity, overtaking coal’s 33 percent share for the first time, and coal generation fell below one‑third of...
Cold War Echoes of Great Power Minerals Strategy
China and the United States are accelerating strategies to dominate critical mineral supply chains, echoing Cold War‑era resource competition. Beijing has embedded mineral security in its 14th Five‑Year Plan, introduced licensing rules and consolidated rare‑earth producers under state‑backed groups. Washington...
Japan Protests China's Oil and Gas Projects in the East China Sea
Japan lodged a formal protest after China began constructing a new offshore structure on its side of the East China Sea median line. Tokyo argues the median line should serve as the de‑facto boundary until a formal EEZ delimitation is...
Why the Most Important Food Prices Are Rising Again
Canadian grocery inflation rose to 4.4% in March, outpacing the headline 4% CPI figure. Meat prices surged—beef up 12.7%, chicken 7.5%, pork 6.2%—as herd reductions and higher feed costs tighten supply. Vegetable prices also jumped, with cucumbers up 28.4% and...
Using the USMCA Review to Strengthen Regional Integration
The US‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement is slated for a 2026 review, prompting a Binational Task Force to propose concrete reforms. Steel and automotive sectors remain flashpoints, with Section 232 steel tariffs now at 50% and long‑standing disputes over rules of origin. The task...
Canadian Inflation Comments
Canada’s gasoline prices have risen to roughly C$2 per litre (about US$1.48) in the Greater Montreal area, prompting the federal government to suspend the gasoline excise tax on April 14, shaving about C$0.11 per litre (≈US$0.08). Core consumer‑price inflation remains above...
House Lawmakers Call for Rice-Specific Trade Investigation
A bipartisan group of 17 House members urged U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to launch a Section 301 investigation targeting unfair practices in global rice markets. The lawmakers cited subsidized imports from India, Thailand, Vietnam, China, Brazil and the EU as threats...
Wells Fargo's Scharf: Lowering Rates Is 'Wrong Thing to Do'
Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf told a Washington audience that cutting interest rates now would be “the wrong thing to do” given the heightened uncertainty from the ongoing Iran war. He highlighted that loan demand remains robust, delinquencies are low, and...
Hormuz Tension Snaps Nasdaq Win Streak: Stock Market Today
Oil prices surged over 5% on Monday after a cease‑fire in the Strait of Hormuz collapsed, pushing WTI to $86.93 and Brent to $95.06 per barrel. The rally helped end the Nasdaq Composite’s 13‑session winning streak, with all three major...
The World Is Paying the Price for America’s War
The United States’ war with Iran has pushed global oil and gas prices up more than a third, but American consumers feel only modest price increases while the rest of the world bears steep cost spikes. Polls show most Americans...
Some EM Debt May Be Getting More Attractive, Says Gramercy
Gramercy Capital notes that emerging‑market (EM) sovereign and corporate debt is becoming more attractive as elections in three major economies are likely to trigger structural reforms. The firm expects policy shifts to improve fiscal discipline, reduce currency volatility, and deepen...
Japan, Australia and a New Regional Order
The United States and China are set to meet at a high‑profile summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, a gathering that analysts say will reverberate across the Indo‑Pacific. Japan and Australia, both key U.S. allies, are closely monitoring...