AI and Automation Reduce the Importance of Population Size
With AI and automation, are population sizes going to be as important? Source: Visual Capitalist https://www.voronoiapp.com/demographics/-Chinas-Population-Already-Peaked-in-2021-4106
Mortgage Rate Rally Falters Amid Rising Yields, Weak Jobs Outlook
Is this week's mortgage rate rally already running out of steam? Bond yields are back up, oil prices are back up, mortgage rates no longer falling... And we have another jobs report tomorrow with a very low bar to clear, just 55k...
US Labor Share Hits Record Low Since 1947
Labor's share of output (nonfarm business) fell to 54.1% in the first quarter, the lowest since records begin going back to 1947. "not so good news for society and our politics" - @KrishnaRSGuha https://t.co/D58YlaQefG
Hormuz Crisis Sparks Oil Shock and Market Outlook
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I'm joined by the one and only @ericnuttall to talk about the ongoing Hormuz crisis oil supply shock, how oil and gas equities are pricing the conflict, and what...
EU Seeks Talks, Putin Demands Constructive Stance
EU prepares for ‘potential’ talks with Vladimir Putin, says @eucopresident. But did anyone ask Russia? “Putin’s message is we are prepared to be constructive if you are prepared to be constructive. But if you are not then we are not interested.”...
UK and Costa Rica Join CPTPP, Spreading Asian Innovation Globally
There was a time when the United States and the transatlantic West were supposed to be the rule-makers while a lot of analysts reduced Asia to being nothing more than rule-takers. Not that Costa Rica is a big economy, but...
U.S. Urea Imports Soar to Record, Russia Leads Supply
🇺🇸U.S. imports of urea, a nitrogen fertilizer heavily used in farming, hit an all-time high in March 2026. The shipments were valued at $576 million. Q1 2026 imports were up 15% on the year. Top Q1 suppliers by volume: 🇷🇺Russia 30% 🇶🇦Qatar 25% 🇴🇲Oman...
ECB Sees Private Markets Driving Savings Into Modernization Investments
The ECB says burgeoning private markets could support a push by politicians in the region to channel savings into investments needed to modernize the economy https://t.co/48RBoZe4z4 https://t.co/ptwRCgfPVa
Business Service Job Openings Plunge, JOLTs Overlooked
I feel like not enough attention was paid to the recent JOLTs data and the cratering in business service jobs openings 👀 https://t.co/4WhPmhKNjf
Markets Remain Calm Amid Two-Month Iran War
I had the pleasure of joining @PTertzakian & @JackieForrest on the Arc Energy Ideas podcast to talk about the shockingly calm market reaction to more than 2 months of Iran War—what I call the Sanguine Strait Stoppage. Long-time listener, first time...
Gas Price Surge Squeezes Low‑Income Shoppers,
"Executives are worried about US shoppers with tighter budgets amid surging gas prices caused by the conflict in the MidEast. Rising fuel costs are impacting low-income consumers who are dipping into savings and have less money for discretionary spending like eating...
High US Oil Prices Yet Recession Odds Remain Low
So US oil prices are remaining at very lofty levels with inevitable carry over effects on US (and global) GDP...but the probability of a recession has dropped to pre-war lows? Either the economy is less dependent on energy or we...
No Agreement Reached on Hormuz Passage Terms
To be honest, it doesn’t really look like they agreed on the terms for Hormuz passage this time either
End‑of‑Putin and End‑of‑Dollar Myths Overlook Nuance
"The end of Putin" stories almost as enduring as "the end of the dollar" stories... Reality is more nuanced in both cases (indeed, as it is in most things.)
AI and Data Center CapEx Drive Markets, Not Macro
My message to those complaining I'm covering AI/Semis too much at expense of "bread & butter" Macro topics. Here's the reality. What's moving markets: - AI - Data Center CapEx What's not moving markets: - Treasury Issuance - Banking System - FX/Rates - Fed //...
Prediction Markets Mirror Volatile Geopolitics, Like Oil
I am keeping an eye on the Prediction Markets for 'When Will the US-Iran Have a Nuclear Deal' and 'When Will Hormuz Traffic Return to Normal'. Those seem to be the leading edge of the theme - but just as...
USD/JPY Bounces Off Support, Intervention Risk Rising
Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Rebounds From Support - Intervention Risk Looms https://t.co/Wr1aKaid7z $USDJPY Weekly Chart https://t.co/OHUmJ1XLuA
Fed Sets Rates by Labor, Not GDP Growth
i don’t know when commentators adopted this perspective, but the fed doesn’t adjust interest rates based on GDP growth. and no, they would not do so to offset the balance sheet. credible arguments would be to cut rates to get to...
Estimating Timeline Until Hormuz Returns to 50
How much longer, from today, does it take for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen**? **defined as >50% of pre-war transit levels
High Debt Limits Future Crisis Response Options
Here’s the thing: debt isn’t exploding tomorrow, but the trajectory matters. If you enter the next war, recession, or pandemic already heavily indebted, you have less room to respond when you actually need it. https://t.co/EPZhyJcRrX
Oil Shortages Looming: Europe by May, US by July
Distinguished economist & commodity market guru Jeff Currie on when oil shortages will hit: "Parts of the world like Australia, Philippines, Thailand already are [in a shortage]. Europe will hit tank bottoms sometime in May. In the US it will be...
Brazil Ranks 19th Most Miserable Amid Soaring Inflation
Not surprisingly, in Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, Brazil ranks as the NINETEENTH MOST MISERABLE country in the world. This is thanks to high inflation and punishing borrowing costs. https://t.co/NdURF6LByk
Commodity Supercycle Begins: Bloomberg Index Up 28%
The Bloomberg Commodity Index has reached over 140 points. The index is now up 28% this year. As I’ve said, "We're entering a commodity supercycle. You want to be long commodities.” https://t.co/up5X1itoJL
Energy Crunch Will Continue Despite Iran Peace Deal, Says Maersk
Maersk Says Energy Crunch to Persist Even If Iran Peace Deal Struck. Not surprising. This extended mess will not fix itself overnite. https://t.co/qJBag33bE9
RMB Gains Won’t Damp China’s Trade Advantage
The mild appreciation of the RMB is unlikely to have much impact on trade flows. China's price advantage is greater than CNY gains and demand for many other products (solar panels, rare earths, e.g.) may not be sensitive to fx....
EU Split: Two Opposing Economies, One Narrative Debate
“The EU is not one economy moving slowly. It is two economies moving in opposite directions, and the disagreement about which story is true is really a disagreement about which Europe you are looking at.” Great article from @lugaricano https://t.co/e4ndiSLV7h...
Bank of Israel Must Surprise Markets Amid Soaring Shekel
With the shekel continuing to rise, people are asking what would Stanley Fischer have done. My post from 2010 on @SeekingAlpha explains the Fischer model for Central Bankers. And yes I think the Bank of Israel needs to do something to...
Hint Reveals Why Hormuz Reopening Stalls, Questions Unasked
“I’m not trying to solve a puzzle here, Dr. Kimble…” “Well, I am trying to solve a puzzle…& I just found a big piece.” This story offers a hint about what’s taking so long to re-open Hormuz, but no one seems to...
US‑Iran Conflict Affects 20% LNG, Just 3% of Global Gas
Shell CEO Wael Sawan: "While 20% of the world's LNG is impacted [by US-Iran war], that equals to only 3% of the world's natural gas." (An important point that's often overlooked)
Low‑Income Earnings Stagnate While Inflation Outpaces Growth
The rich getting richer again. The post pandemic relative earnings growth for lower income people has stalled completely. It’s so bad that it’s lagging inflation again.
World Cup 2026 to Add 185K Jobs, $17B GDP
"185,000: expected increase in US jobs due to World Cup 2026, and the forecasted boost to US GDP is $17bn" - BofA
Post‑Conflict Shift: Dollar and Oil Down, Gold and Stocks Up
Well, the post-conflict playbook seems pretty straightforward: 📉 Weaker US Dollar $USD 📉 Weaker crude oil $USO 📈 Stronger gold $GLD 📈 Stronger stocks $SPX But how orderly of a rotation would this be?... https://t.co/v0gH0FDkW3
Wages Out
3% wage growth or under 1% Productivity growth Target 2% inflaiton, wage growth still too high for the Fed
Crypto Outshines Stocks as Oil Spikes, Wrapped Compute Rises
Iran fires on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent up 5%. Bitcoin breaks 80. @ramahluwalia, @austincampbell, and @perkinscr97 explain why crypto is outperforming equities on a day like this … and why wrapped compute is the next big commodity. @bitsandbips: Timestamps: ⚔️ 1:06...
Yuan Gains Accelerate, Offshore up 5% Last Year
The Yuan's Quiet Rise and Next Week's Summit: The offshore yuan appreciated nearly 5% against the dollar last year. The onshore yuan gained about 4.25%. This year has picked up were 2025 left off. Through yesterday, the offshore yuan has...
Iran's Oil Restrictions Threaten Prices, Risk War
This is an excellent point. Iran is disincentivized to allow all traffic because it can push up oil prices. This cannot be allowed. Actual wars have been fought over issues like this.
RMB Quietly Hits Three-Year High Amid Geopolitical Chatter
The RMB has quietly appreciated to its best level in 3 years. While Bessent says he will discuss the weak yen when he is in Tokyo next week, the exchange rate is unlikely to be featured in next week's Trump-Xi...
India’s Heavy Sour Crude Imports at 50% of Capacity
🇮🇳Key context: India’s current heavy sour crude imports are running at roughly half of its processing capacity.
Shell CEO Warns Prolonged Recovery After Hormuz Closure
Shell CEO Wael Sawan: "The journey back [from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz" will be a long one."
US Weekly Jobless Claims Stay Near Historic Lows
Both initial and continuing weekly jobless claims in the US remain very low, echoing the low layoff rate in JOLTS data. https://t.co/LGFAHjvdBU
Samsung Exits Chinese TV, Appliance Market, Keeps Phones, Chips
Samsung Pulling TVs, Home Appliances From China The company will continue to sell smartphones and computer chips in China https://t.co/tcezc9xfqZ
Iran Conflict Disrupts Global Fertilizer Supply, Hits US
The Iran war is already having major repercussions on fertilizer supply, even in the US! Chartbook Top Links of the day just dropped: https://t.co/p0abfkJwEY
Discussing Oil, Iran, and Hormuz Tensions on Bloomberg Radio
Well, what is going on with #oil? #Iran? #StraitofHormuz? I'll be on @BloombergRadio to discuss in a few minutes. #oott @ACGlobalEnergy https://t.co/2nAmjfl1Yf
Expensive Market Justified—Only Margin or Rate Shocks Matter
Oftentimes “nice” things are expensive. Today’s fundamental and macro backdrop currently warrants an expensive market. But expensive doesn’t necessarily mean overvalued. A sustained drop in margins or spike in rates would warrant a less expensive market. https://t.co/txKEb7klr2
Inflation Fears Persist, yet Long‑run Expectations Stay Anchored
Americans remain deeply scarred by the COVID inflation surge. Inflation expectations, Google searches, and demand for inflation hedges all remain elevated. But longrun NGDP expectations still look anchored. The Fed’s credibility endures. My latest: https://t.co/0JXpX63EwQ @Austan_Goolsbee @MaryDalyEcon @annap_2013
Trucking Can't Fully Substitute Iran's Maritime Trade, Experts Say
My take in @RFERL on Iran's alternate trade routes: Iran’s alternative trucking routes can supply the Iranian economy, but “cannot replace a maritime container economy one-for-one. Trucking is more expensive and Caspian throughput is constrained by port and fleet capacity.” https://t.co/gRybziaMHm
BoE Embraces Rising Yields, Forces Tough Fiscal Choices
Rising yields are the only way governments will ever make unpopular decisions to bring fiscal policy under control. The Bank of England is alone among the G10 central banks in letting this play out and deserves kudos. The UK will...
Ancient Inflation Experiment Highlights Slave Labor Market Differences
My new Coppola Comment post describes an ancient experiment with inflation control. Like today, it's all about the labour market - but the labour market in a slave economy works very differently from our labour market. https://t.co/AJXd01ivLg https://t.co/0sXcg2cS2M
War's Impact on Growth: A Rare Data Point
There don’t seem to be that many data points showing the war affecting economic growth, but here’s one. https://t.co/UiPUCa7s5S
Upcoming UK GDP, US CPI, Retail Sales Preview
Plenty to talk about on today's podcast with @MrMBrown Including a look at the week ahead with UK Q1 GDP, US CPI and Retail Sales https://t.co/Zq2zv9OZLZ