Latest US‑China Trade Data Signals Shifting Balance
Ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, my take on the most up-to-date US-China trade data 🤓 https://t.co/MAnUlGQUFl
Nominal Wage Growth Stabilizes, Yet Supply Shocks Threaten Real Incomes
This data is somewhat backward looking now, but... We had been seeing a soft landing in the reported pace of nominal labor income growth. Stabilizing around a healthy pace. Problem is self-inflicted supply shocks are already raising inflation again. Will weigh...
Powell Warns Removal Power Threatens Fed Independence
David Wilcox points out Powell, without being explicitly asked about, pointed to the governors' ability to remove regional Fed Presidents as a risk to independence in his latest press conference. @HooverInst https://t.co/J4Uy69mrei https://t.co/Q0ltpyO3sf
Tariffs Dominate Business Discussions, Says NC Governor
NC Gov. Stein on corporate investment: "Some of them are still coming, don't get me wrong … but almost every business meeting I have, one of the first topics they bring up is the challenges of tariffs" https://t.co/A8Cfovlh2b https://t.co/NetY7oVnbT
Sticky Inflation Turns Junk Bonds Into Attractive Carry
Geopolitics & sticky inflation are creating a wild bond market. The surprise? It’s making high-yield "junk" bonds look attractive for carry. Defaults stay low, so investors are reaching for that extra yield. 📈 HighYieldBonds
Citi CEO Warns Inflation Will Persist Longer Than Expected
“I don’t think it’s fully appreciated” Jane Fraser, Citi CEO, says she expects a more protracted inflation problem
1970s Policy Errors Stemmed From More Than Fed Independence
"Monetary policy mistakes in the 1970s were not due to a lack of Fed independence" Edward Nelson, Senior Adviser Federal Reserve Monetary Affairs @HooverInst
Administration Fails to Meet 1974 BoP Deficit Standard
Great thread, and an interesting observation -- There is no doubt that the Administration didn't attempt to meet the standard for 122 (a BoP deficit as understood in 1974 ... ); the USTR filing more or less just noted the deficits...
Monetary Policy Nerd Live-Tweets Hoover Conference, Ditches Ballgames
I'm attending @HooverInst's annual monetary conference today. Caution: I'll be tweeting nerdy monetary policy details as someone who thinks monetary policy is far more exciting than a ballgame - I let my dogs chase balls, never quite understood why humans...
Iran Seizes Its Own Crude Amid Booming Trade
When your Iranian oil trade is so hot that Iran seizes its own crude back. https://t.co/LSKsv5pbu8
ECB Fears Euro Stablecoins Due to Dollar Deficit
In today's Daily Peg, I allege that the ECB's real paranoia about euro-denominated stablecoins stems from a fundamental and structural dollar deficit across the eurosystem. https://t.co/2oIVNDBppn
US Slaps Anti-Dumping Duties on Chinese Pea Protein Exporters
Chinese ag-industrial policy story: the US is already levying anti-dumping duties on the following Chinese bio/ag tech firms that were selling underpriced pea protein to the USA. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/jYxMe3342A
Oil Shock May Mirror 2022 Spike, Not Gulf War
Not to rain on this bullish parade, but there is a left tail lurking out there in the Strait of Hormuz. The more I learn about the mechanics of the energy market, the more concerned I am that what the...
Bank Influence Drives Push for Deeper Market Integration
"deeper capital market integration through the savings and investment union and a stronger safe asset base" translation: "banks bribed us sufficiently"
China's Imports Stall While Exports Surge, Creating Trade Imbalance
Chinese import growth has stopped tracking with Chinese domestic demand growth. With Chinese export volumes growing much faster than global trade, there is now enormous gap -- an imbalance -- in China's trade https://t.co/BhObwF49bG
Turkey's Inflation Likely to Ease, Says Leading Metric
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Turkey’s CPI inflation stands at 32.37%/yr in April. Today, my high-frequency inflation measure is 20.83%/yr — well below the official rate. My measure always leads the official measure. That suggests that Turkey’s inflation will moderate in the coming months. https://t.co/gzVHqiPVDx
China’s March Tariff Triples Global Average After IEEPA End
In March, the simple effective tariff (tariff revenue/ imports) for China was a bit over 20% -- and the simple effective tariff for the rest of the world was 5%. The end of IEEPA had an impact 1/2 https://t.co/URjXF3lbbB
ESLR Reform Fuels Unprecedented Repo Activity Surge
Not since the QE heyday of the first Covid lockdown have we seen repo activity surge like this. The driver is the eSLR reform - still vastly underappreciated by many. We’ve been on top of this and see it as THE...
Korea and Taiwan's Chip Trade Surplus Soars $300B
The combined trade surplus of the chip superpowers (Korea and Taiwan) is running about USD 300b above its 2024 level ($400b v 100b). Taiwan's April surplus was down a bit (oil and gas imports) but it didn't change the...
Record Two-Month Job Gains, Yet Economists Lose Again
Biggest two-month job growth in two years.. as economists now tied w/ the NY Jets for # of Ls in the past two yrs https://t.co/OwQ0cW28TU
Cuba Ranks 40th Most Miserable Amid Soaring Inflation
In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index in @FortuneMagazine, Cuba ranks as the 40TH MOST MISERABLE country in the world. This is thanks to their SKY-HIGH inflation at 29.1% and weak real GDP growth per capita. https://t.co/2Aw1eztfIQ
Payroll Gains Mask Small Business Strain and Hidden Unemployment
Payrolls surprise to the upside but should be taken with a grain of salt. The household survey has shed jobs since the start of the year. Payrolls are revised and often miss the real-time stress felt by small &...
May Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low Amid Gas Surge
Consumer sentiment falls to fresh record low in May as surging gas prices hit outlook: CNBC
EU Allows Airlines US Jet Fuel Amid Hormuz Blockade
EU to say airlines can use US jet fuel amid Hormuz block https://t.co/ejV7yc5J0O via @E_Krukowska @AlbertoNardelli @JWittels @kate__duffy https://t.co/2oxjn1b2x3
Strong Jobs Market Lets Fed Target Iran‑driven Inflation, Delaying Cuts
A stable labor market has given the Fed more flexibility to focus on mounting inflation risks stemming from the war in Iran, which have weakened the case among officials for rate cuts https://t.co/k8VoRWUSjB @nytimes
U.S. Choice on Hormuz Determines Global Future
Everyone is watching. Will the United States win or lose? Will it leave or take away the control of the Strait of Hormuz from Iran? Will it leave or take away the nuclear material from Iran? Will it leave or take away the deadly...
Finance Ignores Strait Closure, Prioritizes Abstract Reality
Financiers do not seem to care if the Strait is open. Their financial reality precludes physical reality.
Guindos: Hormuz Status Crucial for June ECB
ECB’s Guindos says the status of Hormuz will be key for the June meeting (at which point he will no longer be in office) https://t.co/mviPQJ2pQ4 via @MacarenaMunozM https://t.co/4oMA54Kjhz
AI Investment Surge Fuels US Trade Deficit Despite Tariffs
Despite record tariff levels, the US trade deficit is widening in large part because of the boom in AI-related investment. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/e7hFtYSr2M
April Jobs Data Frees Fed to Focus on Inflation
The April jobs report allows the Fed to sweat over inflation (as opposed to inflation *and* jobs) https://t.co/6iYFTTwKfI
Hormuz Tensions Threaten Supply Chains, Risk Demand Collapse
US, Iran Clash Near Hormuz as Response on Proposed Deal Awaited. The longer this goes on, the greater the global economic and supply chain disruption. What about the US? Is there a tipping point from supply shortage to demand destruction?...
Fed Watchers Favor Chair's Post‑FOMC Press Conferences
Guess what? Fed watchers really like the Chair's press conference after every FOMC meeting. We asked them. via Hutchins Center @BrookingsInst https://t.co/j6s9M3Cyc4
New Model Shows Average Tariff Rate of 11.7%
We have updated our tariff modeling with estimates for the pharma tariffs and tariffs on steel and aluminum derivatives. We estimate an average applied tariff rate around 11.7% for all tariffs currently in effect. https://t.co/sonu5UHL54
ECB Relieved by EURUSD Rally, Fears Below 1.05
It won't move the needle for the ECB in June, but it's a relief for the bank that EURUSD is rallying, all the same. Nightmare for them would be a trap door to 1.05 or lower exacerbating imported inflation.
April Unemployment Hits 4.3%, Jobs Surpass Expectations
US Unemployment Rate remained at 4.3% in April, the lowest level since last August & well below the historical average of 5.7%. 115k jobs were added vs. 63k expected. February/March were revised down⬇️16k. YoY wage growth: +3.6%. Overall: strong report,...
Hormuz Disruption Fuels Inflation, Boosts Commodities Amid Stubborn Rates
Market seems to be missing the fact that things will not be "normal" in the Strait of Hormuz for a long, long time. Inflation is on the rise and I like commodities here. Pain trade is going to...
April Adds 115k Jobs, Unemployment Still Rises
April's jobs report not at all consistent with the idea that breakeven job growth has plummeted to around zero. We got 115,000 new payroll jobs, and the unemployment rate went UP, from 4.26% to 4.34%.
Inflation Outpaces Wage Growth, Squeezing US Workers
Inflation is wiping out wage gains. This is the big Achilles Heel in the US economy. April wage growth: 3.6% April inflation expected to be ~4% Wages are being eaten up by inflation due to the war in Iran. This is a big...
Jobs Beat Expectations, but Wages Remain Weak
This is a better jobs report than I expected but AHE was weak. This needs to improve.
Payrolls Beat Forecasts, Unemployment Steady at 4.3%
A good news jobs report: Payrolls grew +115k (beating expectations of 55k), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%. Revisions a bit negative: Feb revised down -23k, and March revised up +7k. Over the past 3 months we're creating +48k...
Jobs Surge, but Inflation Threatens Wage Gains
JUST IN: Good news. The US economy added a strong 115,000 jobs in April (and March was revised higher to 185,000!) The unemployment rate stayed at 4.3%. Hiring was strong in healthcare (about 1/3 of job gains in April), retail...
Trade Court Blocks Trump Tariffs After Supreme Court Reversal
Trade court says “no” to Trump tariffs set after Supreme Court strikes down tariffs from Liberation Day. No what for supply chains?
National Living Wage Raises Pay Without Cutting Jobs
The introduction of the National Living Wage delivered a large real wage increase, with evidence that firms can absorb the cost to boost worker wages without reducing overall employment. @CEP_LSE research https://t.co/VStkhtqG8H https://t.co/BLD0f1bASM
Food Prices Hit Highest Level Since Feb 2023
The FAO Food Price Index rose 1.6% to 130.7 points in April 2026, marking a third consecutive monthly increase and reaching the highest since February 2023. @teconomics https://t.co/bpHk0ywtYy
Why K‑Shaped Confidence Shapes Consumer Sentiment
With consumer sentiment all over the map, I'd like to recommend a guidebook to help you better understand why K-Shaped confidence really matters. https://t.co/bdCrYjHZV7
Tax Cuts without Spending Cuts Simply Increase the Deficit
Lemme ’splain: calling it a “big beautiful bill” doesn’t make the maths prettier. If you cut taxes and don’t cut spending, the deficit goes up. That’s not ideology. That’s just arithmetic wearing sensible shoes. https://t.co/s6DzR88EeI
US Jobs Boosted as Dollar Slides Post‑Tariff Ruling
US Jobs on Tap after Court Ruled Against Section 122 Tariffs and Conflict in the Middle East: After recovering in the North American afternoon for the second consecutive session yesterday, the dollar has been sold again in Asia and Europe...
Oil Shock to Accelerate Long‑Term Yield Rise
I'm doing my usual live stream tomorrow morning at 9 am (ET). I'll be focusing on all things debt, especially the rise in long-term yields and why the latest shock - the rise in oil prices due to the war...
Energy Index Peaks, Mirrors 30‑Year Treasury Deflation Trend
Energy, T-Bonds, Stocks and Post-Inflation Deflation The Bloomberg Energy Spot Subindex may have peaked in 2026 at about 500, similar to its 2005 apex, with deflationary implications. My graphic highlights the energy index's same-chart syndrome with the 30-year US Treasury (in...
Markets Misjudge Iran War's Real Economic Impact
Before you get too excited, NO, I'm not giving away any financial advice. However, whatever the global markets are doing right now doesn't match the physical reality of the Iran war. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/DXHqzdL8af #globalmarkets #geopolitics https://t.co/YYy1ac7Ki6