Social•Feb 13, 2026
China Backs Struggling Cuba Amid Looming US Showdown
As Cuba teeters on the brink of economic disaster, China promises continued support. It looks like a SHOWDOWN between the US & China might be in the cards. https://t.co/rb7Qf0CdN2
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Prometheus Macro Impresses; Aahan Delivers Real Quant Success
This is extremely impressive. Congrats to @prometheusmacro and the clients who are using its models If you are looking for Quant Macro That Actually Works, Aahan is your guy
By Jack Farley
Social•Feb 13, 2026
AI’s Growth Hinges on How Hard New Ideas Become to Discover
How much economic growth will get from AI? This is massively speculative. However, in a new piece today @ngoldschlag and myself make the case we can learn something about this from an academic economics debate about whether "ideas are getting...
By Adam Ozimek
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Labor Holds, Inflation Cools, Yen Soars Amid Crosscurrents
Resilient labor. Cooling inflation. Duration rallying. Yen surging. 130K jobs. CPI at 2.4%. 10Y yields sliding. Dollar down on the week. This isn’t a clean cycle — it’s macro crosscurrents. Full breakdown: https://t.co/vNAZw80IbE
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Assume BRICS' USD‑bypass Plans Are Real; Doubt USD Stability
Remember, every utterance from BRICS & Global South regarding potential new system to bypass USD is to be treated as if already operational & making material difference. And every piece of evidence that USD system isnt going anywhere is to be...
By Brent Johnson
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Last Year's Job Growth Fell Below a Single Biden Month
“.. we had less job growth all of last year than we had in an average month during the Biden administration.”
By Carl Quintanilla
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Americans Foot ~90% of Trump Tariff Costs
The New York Fed announced that US businesses and consumers paid NEARLY 90% of the cost of Donald Trump’s tariffs last year. TARIFFS = A SALES TAX ON AMERICANS. https://t.co/xEEfGxreUm
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Bitcoin Beats Gold, Outperforms by 5% in Hours
Gold is "no longer actual gold," Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas says. "Bitcoin outperformed gold by 5% in the first three hours of trading on Friday, Feb 13th" 😂
By Eric Balchunas
Social•Feb 13, 2026
AI-Driven Low Rates Boost Term Premium Compression, Hedge Long Bonds
A very positive setup for duration and UST term premium compression if rates are to stay low for a longer timeframe because of AI disruption. It will take time to play out but long end is well priced and...
By Ed Bradford
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Market Prices Accelerating Fed Rate Cuts Through 2026
Notably, market-implied FOMC cuts through 2026 have been increasing. Through February, Fed Fund futures have priced in another -14bps of cuts for the year - and now the most dovish outlook after CPI since Dec 3rd: https://t.co/NZF2YksrWV
By John Kicklighter
Social•Feb 13, 2026
CPI Cools to 2.4%, Fed Eyes Jobs as Unemployment Falls
US #CPI inflation figures came in line with expectations of a pace cooling. Headline dropped from 2.7% to 2.4% while core eased 2.6% to 2.5%. This does shift priority towards employment in the Fed's dual mandate but the jobless rate...
By John Kicklighter
Social•Feb 13, 2026
AI‑driven Spending Masked Recession; Recovery Now Emerging
With this week's jobs revisions, my framework of a main street recession happening last spring that was papered over by large AI capex and top percentile income earners spending like mad makes more sense. And now IMO we're coming out the...
By Felix Jauvin
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Netherlands' 36% Unrealized Gains Tax Slashes Decade‑Long Wealth Growth
A new 36% unrealized gains tax passed in the Netherlands. This means assets that have increased in value are now taxed, even if not sold. See the devastating impact on wealth growth over 10 years. #CryptoTax #Netherlands #IvanClips https://t.co/OMzGMofQhw
By Ivan on Tech
Social•Feb 13, 2026
CPI Cool, but Data Gaps Mask True Inflation
The CPI data came in cooler than expected, which is always welcome. The headline is obscuring some of the underlying inflation due to the loss in data associated with the government shutdown. The overall index posted its coolest reading since...
By Diane Swonk
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Inflation Stays Low as Money Supply Grows Below Golden Rate
US's CPI inflation rate comes in at 2.4%/yr in January. The US money supply (M2) has been growing BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~6.3%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting the Fed's 2%/yr inflation target, since April 2022. THE INFLATION STORY =...
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 13, 2026
S&P Erases Almost All 2026 Gains Amid AI Hype
Forget Trump's AI HYPE. The S&P Index has now given up nearly all its 2026 gains. https://t.co/GAL0TbU7KG
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Data Hints at First Post‑WWII US Soft Landing
After this week's employment & inflation data it is starting to look like the elusive soft landing may finally happen. Would be the first indisputable US post-WW II soft landing. We've had false hopes before dashed by the underlying economic dynamics &...
By Jason Furman
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Bloomberg's Russia Dollar Rumor Likely Misleading, Says Hanke
Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that Russia is considering a re-entry into the US dollar system. Bloomberg's report created quite a stir. RELAX, HANKE'S 95% RULE = 95% OF WHAT YOU READ IN THE PRESS IS EITHER WRONG OR IRRELEVANT. https://t.co/8E7OK7Zm1t
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 13, 2026
January 2026 Defies Post‑COVID Seasonal Inflation Surge
Ever since COVID, the start of the year has seen hot inflation prints, because residual seasonality pushed up inflation in the first quarter. That isn't the case in Jan. '26 and I think that holds a warning for those forecasting...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Core CPI Inflation Rose During the Month of January. But It Fell and Was Relatively Muted over Longer Periods of...
Core CPI inflation rose during the month of January. But it fell and was relatively muted over longer periods of time--although still some concern the numbers a bit lower due to shutdown-related quirks. Annual rates: 1 month: 3.3% 6 months: 2.5% 12 months: 2.5%
By Jason Furman
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Tariffs Drove Inflation; Rate Now Irrelevant, CPI Lagging
The scary part is tariffs HAVE increased inflation. The lagging and imputed portions of CPI are the only remaining sources of inflation. We may get a hit from oil some day, but inflation RATE is no longer the problem. And...
By Michael Green
Social•Feb 13, 2026
AI Hype Isn’t Boosting Profit Margins Across the Economy
If AI were living up to its hype, it would be benefiting the ENTIRE ECONOMY. IT ISN'T. Profit margins outside the tech sector would be growing. THEY'RE NOT. https://t.co/GXT1r783t0
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Inflation Still Stubborn: CPI 2.8%, Core 3.2%
FWIW, since the first "clean" CPI in November (post shutdown), headline CPI inflation is 2.8% annualized and core is 3.2% annualized. Neither suggests much stepdown yet in underlying inflation.
By Greg Ip
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Inflation Misses Again; Labor Market Holds Real Power
🚨 Inflation just missed expectations. Again - Dollar dumping - Gold buying the dip - Stocks pumping on rate cut hopes ⚠️ But don't get comfortable - the labor market is the real story https://t.co/hpBwuiWtK4
By Kathy Lien
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Political Gridlock Stalls $22B US EV Investment
"Last year companies canceled $22 billion in planned investments in electric vehicle manufacturing, batteries or critical minerals in the United States...." Political sustainability limits industrial policy efficacy. https://t.co/RROrBFwACq
By Adam Ozimek
Social•Feb 13, 2026
No Evidence BLS Data Manipulation; Accusations Hinder Discourse
There is ZERO evidence that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is manipulating the data, not the CPI, not payrolls earlier this week. I am not being naive and people are watching carefully for signs of tampering. Such accusations now are harmful...
By Claudia Sahm
Social•Feb 13, 2026
AI Spending Lifts some Assets, Hurts Major Stock Valuations
The AI capex boom is absolutely stimulative to *certain* assets in the ecosystem and supply chain, but that won't be Mag7 stock prices from here. Revenue growth is slowing, input prices rising and you can connect the dots on what...
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Banks' Inflation Forecasts Politicized, Yield Soft Surprises
Another SOFT inflation surrpise... It has become a bit of a theme, and we are increasingly convinced that inflation forecasting has become a "politicized arena" within banks, given how incredibly stubborn they have been in their wrong lean on this.
By Andreas Steno Larsen
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Soft US Inflation Sparks Dollar Slide, Yield Drop, Gold Rise
📉 Softer US Inflation - Markets React 🔻 Softer US inflation numbers 🔻 USD tumbling 🔻 10-year yield falling ⬆️ Gold rising ⬆️ Stocks rallying 📊 CPI Breakdown: • MoM: 0.2% actual vs 0.3% forecast • YoY: 2.5% actual vs 2.5% forecast (2.7% previous)
By Kathy Lien
Social•Feb 13, 2026
January Spike: Core CPI Gains Outpace Typical Inflation
JANUARY EFFECT, or “Why this inflation report matters more than others” Since the start of 2022, core CPI has risen 0.45% month-on-month in January, versus an average of 0.33% for all months.
By Luke Kawa
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Trump Backs Off as Treasury Market Wobbles, Risk Premium Spikes
One constant in the Trump administration is that - when the Treasury market wobbles - it backs down. That happened on China in Apr. '25 and again on Greenland recently. 10y10y forward yield remains near its highs, even as 10y...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 13, 2026
SPX Futures Slip, Risk‑Off Bias Ahead
$SPX futures slipping after losing 6902/6870 as traders cut risk and lean short. Upper range looks vulnerable, especially in tech with lots of names bent or broken. If SPY/QQQ lose the 8/21-day, expect more cash + day trading. CPI at...
By Scott Redler
Social•Feb 13, 2026
NATO Remains Vital Amid Transatlantic Trust Crisis
for all the criticism and hand wringing, nato continues to serve a useful role for all members and nobody is trying to leave it or replace it. there’s a crisis of trust in the transatlantic relationship. but not an existential...
By Ian Bremmer
Social•Feb 13, 2026
OPEC+ Faces March 1 Decision on Production Hikes
OIL MARKET: The core group of OPEC+ countries need to decide on March 1 whether to re-start production increases after the Jan-Mar pause. Some members in the group see scope for resuming the monthly hikes, although conversations haven't started yet....
By Javier Blas
Social•Feb 13, 2026
ETFs Rake $250B in 28 Days, EM Overtakes Gold
There's only been 28 trading days this year and ETFs have already pulled in about $250b. More than double any other start to a year. Up until 2020, $250b was what they averaged for a YEAR. That's $9b/day pace, or...
By Eric Balchunas
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Labor Market Stabilizing: Health Care Leads, Construction Rebounds
Yes, most of the jobs last month (and the previous 18 months) have come from health care/social assistance. But if things were so bad would there be 32k in construction? Or 5k added in manufacturing? The labor market isn't great by...
By Ryan Detrick
Social•Feb 13, 2026
US Loses Cheap‑borrower Advantage, Now Pays Debt Premium
The US exorbitant privilege - the ability to issue debt more cheaply than others - ended about a decade ago. We're now issuing debt at a premium, the result of deficits and debt that are out of control. This change...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 13, 2026
CPI Insights on Friday the 13th: Inflation Talk
I will be on @YahooFinance at 8:30 am today to talk about the CPI. Friday the 13th and inflation. (My preview thread below.)
By Claudia Sahm
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Dollar Holds Steady Pre‑CPI as China Signals Treasury De‑risking
The Dollar is Firm Ahead of January CPI: The US dollar is firm against the G10 currencies ahead of the US January CPI. The week began with news that Chinese officials were encouraging de-risking from US Treasuries. Helped by stronger...
By Marc Chandler
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Trump Admin Eyes Tariff Cuts, Citing Price Hikes, Complexity
BOMBSHELL @FT scoop: Trump admin mulls cutting steel/aluminum tariffs bc these taxes 1) raise US prices; 2) are insanely complicated; 3) had other unintented consequences (incl lobbying). They're admitting, in other words, that gravity exists. Good. https://t.co/o4RkfMWxlF
By Scott Lincicome
Social•Feb 13, 2026
CPI Dip on Friday the 13th Sparks Inflation Uncertainty
CPI falling on Friday the 13th is the ultimate "Freaky Friday" energy. 👻 Is inflation actually cooling to 2.5%, or is the ghost of 2022 about to jump out of the data? I’m navigating the madness and trading the US CPI release...
By Boris Schlossberg
Social•Feb 13, 2026
USD Firms Ahead of CPI as Euro/GBP Options Expire
$USD enjoys a firmer tone ahead of the US CPI. Over 5 bln euro options at $1.1850 expire today. Session low so far is slightly below there. GBP530 mln options at $1.36 expire today. Session low so...
By Marc Chandler
Social•Feb 13, 2026
January Job Loss Smaller, Yields 130k Seasonal Gain
Great question. Drop in hiring happens every January. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis (left), we lost 2.6 million jobs in January 2026, but that was a smaller loss than a typical January ... so we got a good print seasonally adjusted...
By Claudia Sahm
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Trump’s $12 B Rare‑Earth Stockpile: Mere Band‑Aid
The Trump administration has announced a plan to create a $12 billion stockpile of rare earths. The goal is to create a buffer against any supply disruptions, but this is just a band-aid. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/daeIxnpldt #rareearths #trump #projectvault https://t.co/p6icljXtjO
By Peter Zeihan
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Cathie Wood: Bitcoin Hedges Both Inflation and AI‑driven Deflation
🚨 UPDATE Cathie Wood just said that Bitcoin is a hedge against both inflation and the deflation that could come from the productivity shock of AI! https://t.co/LBcroO4Hst
By That Martini Guy
Social•Feb 13, 2026
ECB Staff Push for Tighter Oversight and Regulation
ECB staff comes up with the revolutionary idea of adding even more oversight and regulation
By Brent Johnson
Social•Feb 13, 2026
AI Layoffs Risk Turning Companies Into Stranded Assets
Something worth remembering if you're trying to value the stock market right now: 👇 A corporation can only profit from human labor displacement once. If by engaging in that single cost saving to beef up your bottom line you inadvertently destroy...
By Izabella Kaminska
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Three Consecutive CPI Misses Signal Rate‑Cut Surge
Last CPI missed expectations 3 months in a row. If it happens again today, rate cut bets explode and the dollar dumps. I'm trading it LIVE at 8AM ET. Don't watch from the sidelines 👇 https://t.co/gAw05zLlQ8
By Boris Schlossberg
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Global Fund Flows Outpace US, Shifting Investment Balance
US exceptionalism is turning into global rebalancing: BofA’s Michael Hartnett. Stock funds in Europe, Japan and other international developed markets have drawn $104 billion this year vs the $25 billion that’s flowed into US funds: BofA citing EPFR Global. https://t.co/ah9arXM6u9...
By Lisa Abramowicz
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Libya's Economy Lags Egypt After 2011 US Intervention
#LibyaWatch🇱🇾: Libya’s economy is NOWHERE CLOSE to its neighbor Egypt. Thanks to the US-led regime change operation in 2011, Libya is IN THE TANK. https://t.co/mnlulHdvko
By Steve Hanke