G10 Long-Term Yields Hit Record Highs Amid Debt Surge
In the UK, long-end yields are at all-time highs, but - if you look across the G10 - that's true for many other countries as well. The US, Japan, France and Australia all have the highest yields in a very long time. After COVID, there's too much debt... https://t.co/wLyQata4uf https://t.co/1l5xNOi5JV
Investors See Middle East Conflict De‑escalating Amid Ceasefire Violations
Week Ahead: Trump-Xi and US-China CPI: There were several developments to note last week, but arguably the most important was that investors are optimistic that the Middle East war is winding down despite some violations of the ceasefire. June WTI...
Strong US Data Yet Dollar Declines, Signaling Regime Shift
I'm doing a live stream at 9 am (ET) this morning. I'll talk about how much the Dollar is falling and how we're seeing mounting signs of regime change, whereby strong US data see the Dollar fall. That's how it...
Brazilian Real Leads EM Gains, Set to Dip Below 4.50
The Brazilian Real is now the best-performing EM currency since the start of the war, leaving aside the Hungarian Forint, which is idiosyncratic and about Orban losing the election. The Real has a lot further to go and - unlike...
Dollar Declines vs EM Despite No Peace Deal
It's remarkable how much the Dollar is falling versus EM (blue), even though we don't even have a peace deal yet. Dollar down is a really high-conviction trade that people are putting on already now because they know they'll get...
CPI Data and Yen Moves Dominate Upcoming Week
Week ahead highlights: US and PRC CPI, Bessent talks $JPY in Japan, and G2 summit in Beijing. After ordering Fed to check exchange rates in Jan, Bessent quiet on recent BOJ intervention. Outcome of Xi-Trump likely minimal. See...
Fertilizer Shortage Spikes Potato Prices, Makes $136k Spenders Millionaires
FACT: If you spent $136,000 on potatoes last month, you'd be a millionaire right now. Potato prices have skyrocketed from €2.5 to €18.5 per 100 kg because fertiliser supplies are drying up after the Strait of Hormuz was closed. https://t.co/vyaLL0pKgh
Gold's Drivers: Geopolitics, De‑Dollarization, Yields, Not Headlines
I joined @cnbcarabiatv to discuss what's actually moving gold right now — geopolitical fragmentation, de-dollarization, real yields, and why energy shocks can temporarily override the traditional safe-haven narrative. Strategic allocation is about context, not headlines. Discipline in sizing matters more than the...
Markets View Iran War as Ongoing Demand Drag
WTI fell 6% this week and 12-month spreads fell 25%. Markets now see the Iran war as a persistent drag, not an imminent systemic collapse They increasingly expect demand destruction, not growth, to rebalance the market. #WTI #OilMarkets #Backwardation #DemandDestruction #EnergyCrisis #Brent...
Russia’s Revived Commodity Wealth Fuels Putin’s Renewed Aggression
Putin didn’t suddenly become belligerent because of NATO. The real shift was power. As commodity revenues returned, Russia regained options, confidence and leverage. And with that came the re-emergence of much older ambitions. That was the moment the trajectory changed. #Geopolitics #Russia #Putin #Ukraine...
Iran's Redundant Networks Test Others' Endurance, Not Its Survival
Most observers treat Hormuz as Iran's economic on-off switch Iran has prepared for this moment for 47 years It has redundancy everywhere: Land routes, shadow trade, barter, smuggling, informal finance. These have trade offs but the real question isn't “Can Iran survive?” but “Who...
No Real US‑Iran Deal Imminent; It's Just Negotiation Talk
Why can’t intelligent people see that a real U.S.-Iran “deal” has almost no probability of happening? Right now, we’re not negotiating a deal. WE’RE NEGOTIATING THE POSSIBILITY OF FUTURE NEGOTIATIONS My advice: ignore everything Trump says Look at the facts on the ground Use...
China’s Q1 Gold Surge Driven by Bars, Not Jewelry
Xinhua: "China's gold consumption edged up 4.41% year on year in the first quarter of 2026, driven by a 46.4% increase in demand for gold bars and coins. Gold consumption for jewelry, however, fell 37.1%. While all of these gold...
China’s Crackdown Will Squeeze Debt‑laden Carmakers
1/6 SCMP: "Beijing’s tighter oversight of vicious price competition in the automotive sector is expected to increase borrowing pressure on mainland carmakers and accelerate the exit of weaker, debt-laden players amid softening consumer demand, according to S&P Global Ratings." https://t.co/jlaxAjpD2B
Fuel‑price Spikes Boost Demand for Cheap European EVs
Demand for affordable EVs is soaring in Europe as the fuel price increases caused by the Middle East conflict spur lower-income households to go green https://t.co/Oe6DZ6COyC
Arturo Lopo Predicts Europe's Economic Outlook in Interview
Behind the scenes of my interview with Arturo Lopo from Spain’s public broadcaster @rtve. We discussed the European economic outlook. Watch here from 9:00 CET (in Spanish) https://t.co/LP16YqzNME https://t.co/G2SXZff5Kt
China’s Refined Fuel Exports Hit Decade Low Despite HK Exemption
China's exports of diesel, gasoline, jet fuel other refined fuels fell to the lowest level in a ~decade in April thanks to the export ban. That probably understates the contraction because the trade figures include HK, which is exempted from...
Protectionism Deepens Poverty in Global Crises
Protectionism makes everyone poorer during global shocks via @FT ✍️Dr Ngozi WTO DG @wto https://t.co/FJktdmvyWF
China's April Export Surge Reaffirms Trade as Stabilizer
JUST IN: China's export growth sped up in April after a short slowdown in March, underscoring trade's role as a main economic stabilizer.
Blocking Iranian Tankers Is Unrealistic, Like Policing Tiny Waters
It’s not stupid to “let” Iranian tankers get thru the blockade if you’re powerless to stop them @BrettErickson28 This is not like guarding a canal. It’s closer to trying to police a small U.S. state’s worth of water https://t.co/o7uBWIKrky
Americans Hold More Wealth in Stocks Than Real Estate
Ruchir Sharma, Chairman of Rockefeller International, on Americans’ overexposure in the equity market: “America is the only country where people have more of their wealth in the stock market than in the property market.” https://t.co/fdqVJtKVNJ
Canada Unemployment Spikes;
Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.9% in April. Higher prices from the US-Israeli war on Iran caused considerable damage. In addition, the goods-producing sector, most exposed to US tariffs, lost a WHOPPING 26,800 jobs. TRUMP'S ECON POLICIES = A MASTERCLASS IN MAKING...
AI Deflationary Shock Flattening Yield Curve Amid Oil Rise
One of the more interesting signals in the data right now is that the yield curve continues to flatten despite a significant increase in oil prices on a trailing three-month basis. Historically, in a more traditional economic cycle, an energy...
Waller Warns Productivity Surge Could Raise Borrowing Costs
Fed's Waller: starts by trashing Goolsbee's model -- anticipated productivity will be associated with higher borrowing costs if 'everyone' scrambles to invest, acting as a dampener.
Goldman Delays Final Fed Cuts to Late 2026, Early 2027
“We are pushing back the final two Fed rate cuts in our forecast by one quarter to December 2026 and March 2027.” - Goldman
Trump’s Impatient Tactics Outmatched by Iran’s Strategic Mastery
Trump has been exposed as an impatient amateur in international statecraft Iran has played like a chess grand master Trump's deadlines & threats have lost credibility How does Trump avoid humiliation for what can only be called a disastrous failure? Right now, it is...
Prime‑age Male Labor Participation up, Overall Rate Misleading
Sigh. I fucking hate it when people treat labor force participation rate as an indicator of labor market strength. This is just AGING. The prime-age male labor force participation rate has RISEN. https://t.co/irkibPk59k
Fed Briefly Employed Tiered Reserves During 2008 Crisis
🚨 Fed actually used a tiered reserves system temporarily in 2008🚨 — Darrell Duffie @HooverInst monetary policy conference https://t.co/CPW11sBr1e
Tariffs Harm Economy and Violate Legal Authority
Two things can be true at once: tariffs can be bad economics and bad law. Taxing imports raises costs for Americans; doing it without proper authority also trashes the rules. https://t.co/IIdLA6tjrl
Russia's Desperation: Seeks Trump to Protect Putin
Russia needs Trump to beg Ukraine not to kill Putin if he appears in public The New Russian Empire is absolutely pathetic
Powell’s Capitol Hill Testimony Exhausts Congressional Audiences
Fed Chair Powell really did “wear out the carpets” on Capitol Hill. (A slide from @td_econ’s presentations at @HooverInst monetary policy conference.) https://t.co/QZA1xbFmKC
Weak Dollar Boosts Bitcoin and Risk‑On Assets
Dollar Breakdown Keeps Fueling Bitcoin and Risk-On Equity Rotation Short USD. Short Treasuries. Long the Quad Shift. ⚡💵 While Tourists panic around every $SPY tick, the real Macro move remains the same: ⬇️ Dollar ⬇️ Bonds ⬆️ Bitcoin ⬆️ Risk Assets https://t.co/94qOuTSIrQ
Markets Mask Deep Disruptions with False Confidence
We're seeing major disruptions, yet prices and trading patterns reflect high confidence that everything is fine. That's far from the truth... #finance #globalmarkets #geopolitics https://t.co/JwZT4baTcm
Tariffs and War Drive US Sentiment to Record Low
The University of Michigan's consumer-sentiment index dropped to an ALL-TIME LOW. TRUMP'S TARIFFS & WAR MADNESS = CRUSHES AMERICAN SENTIMENT. https://t.co/DHKLYvmp7D
Stagflation Tension Highlights Fed’s Policy Dilemma
The Weekly Quill — The Tug-of-War Between Stag & -Flation - QI Research https://t.co/7NazYjc7Ln #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/4wmSodUNiO
Rate Hikes Spark Political Jabs Across Fed Generations
When Greenspan came in, he immediately hiked rates. Volcker phoned him and jokingly called him a "traitor". He was supposed to be friendly to the administration. It would be funny if Warsh was forced to hike and Powell pulled the...
U.S. Adds 55k Jobs Monthly, Strongest Six‑month Streak Since 2025
55k US jobs per month were added over the last 6 months, the strongest 6-month growth rate since May 2025. https://t.co/nDPoQrhKtq
Trump Calls for Three-Day Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire
#Trump: THREE DAY CEASEFIRE (May 9th, 10th, and 11th) in the War between Russia and Ukraine. https://t.co/sjLhXAK2F3
Half of Fed Forecasters Now Expect No Rate Cuts This Year
More sell-side firms and Fed watchers are removing/delaying cuts from their outlook, including a couple forecasters after the April NFP. Half now see no cuts this year (and risks are clearly tilted to this group continuing to grow given inertial...
Boat Sales Signal Economy’s Health—Decline Warns Trouble
I think one of the best economic indicators isn’t real estate, it’s boat sales. Boats are the ultimate disposable income purchase. Generally speaking, they only sell in an economy where people are doing very well and have a very optimistic outlook...
Setback Targets Global Tariff, Not US‑China Talks
Will push back a bit against Dr. Prasad's take here, and the NYT headline framing the "122" decision as a set back for the US in the negotiations with China. The actual set back is to any attempt to generate a...
Debt Service Ratio, Not Total Debt, Drives Markets
Eichengreen rightfully points out that total debt is far less relevant than debt service ratio. Large balances make for good headlines, but don't correlate with markets. @B_Eichengreen @HooverInst
Stocks Hit Record Highs Despite Macro Fatigue
What's does the global macro horizon look like over the coming week? Record High Stocks Amid Extreme Headline Fatigue https://t.co/AoxA22S38v https://t.co/L2MqLnfrdM
Low VIX Signals Calm Amid Market Panic
Investor: "OMG what's happening in the Middle East? Are interest rates back up? What about crude oil? Wait the jobs number came in strong, what now?!?" $VIX: "Dude. Just chill out." $VIX < 20 = "Please disperse, there's nothing to see here."...
Dollar's Reserve Role Erodes as Allies Shift Amid NATO Tensions
'US dollar as reserve currency has been in long-term decline. Lists a long list of contributing factors, notably also states that if history is any guide, countries keep reserves with allies, and NATO tensions may negative impact Treasury holdings.' @B_Eichengreen...
Higher‑base Inflation Risk Echoes 1970s Oil Shock
If this left tail manifests, it would happen at the worst time from an inflation perspective. Since the 9% COVID spike in 2022, the inflation rate has settled down to 3%. That’s better than 9% but it’s not the Fed’s...
Analyzing Oil Market Shock After Hormuz Closure
With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz now into its 3rd month, I sat down for a wide-ranging discussion with @ProfGMarkets on the reverberations from the largest disruption in history of oil markets, and where we go from here....
Robust Job Growth Fuels Fed Hawks, Delays Rate Cuts
The Civil War with the Fed just got more interesting as the year-to-date job growth will give the Fed hawks more ammunition not to cut rates. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #labor #economics #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Korea, Taiwan Post Record Surpluses Amid Currency Weakness
The surpluses of Korea and Taiwan this year will be incredible The fact that these surpluses coincide with a historically weak Korean won and continued deep weakness in the Taiwan dollar is most interesting
US Stock Market Shows Bubble Signals, Yield Spread Confirms
My Bubble Detector says the US stock market is in bubble territory. So does the bond-stock yield spread. Buckle up. https://t.co/6ZhjdNX6mH