Central Banks Face Repeated Inflation Amid Supply Shocks
NEW ODD LOTS Monetary Policy in the Age of Supply Side Shocks @tracyalloway and I talk to the great Megan Greene —- always @economistmeg to us — about how central banks are dealing with one inflationary episode after another https://t.co/y1tj2H3kJm
China Pushes Global Expansion While Guarding Domestic Production
Rhodium: "Chinese firms are emerging as major global competitors, but Beijing is intent on ensuring that this overseas expansion does not lead to a hollowing out of production or capabilities in China or a loss of control over key supply...
Ignoring Oil Loss Sparks Global Energy and Industry Crisis
Dumb & Dumber @tylercowen dismisses energy & material reality He ignores ~1 billion barrels permanently lost & no end to the Hormuz crisis Oil, LNG, fertilizer, helium & shipping disruptions cascade through AI, food, mining & industry https://t.co/DGt5mHDspW #Oil #Energy
China's Inflation Surprises Ahead of US Data Week
Per CNBC below, a global week of inflation data kicked off with hotter-than-expected Chinese CPI and PPI figures. This comes ahead of the highly anticipated US inflation data later this week. #economy #markets #inflation @cnbc
China’s Industrial Push Threatens G7’s 13% Export Share
Hard hitting and detailed rpt on China's new industrial policy and implications. Including the potential challenge to/loss of market share in G7 = almost 13% of mfg exports by 2030. Past due time to smell the coffee. https://t.co/9WBKMxPaRz
Germany Faces Stagflation as Growth Slows, Inflation Rises
Good Morning from Germany, which appears to be heading towards stagflation. Consensus GDP forecasts for 2026 have been revised down from more than 1% to just 0.66%, while inflation forecasts have climbed above 2.7%. Against this backdrop, the ECB is...
China Pumps AI and Weapons, Economy Sputters
Xi’s China: Dazzling Technology, Military Muscle—and an Economic Mess. Government pours money into AI, electric cars and military power, while consumer confidence sags and job market grows bleak @BrianSpegele https://t.co/oLalrSpepN https://t.co/oLalrSpepN
Guindos Calls for Cautious Rate Policy Before Exit
ECB’s Guindos urges rate ‘prudence’ as he prepares to leave the central bank https://t.co/zrPWNMfuOi https://t.co/cCXOg02GW0
Trump Seeks to End Iran War Before China Summit
Iran War Hangs Over China Summit—As Trump prepares to meet with Xi Jinping this week, he is eager to move on from the conflict that is hurting his domestic power and the global economy @AnnieLinskey @alexbward @GavinBade https://t.co/RZ8h2LdG17 https://t.co/RZ8h2LdG17
Current Account Deficits Erode Manufacturing, Fuel Protectionist Backlash
1/2 Daire MacFadden: "In countries running a current account deficit, persistent imbalances have hollowed out domestic manufacturing and generated a political backlash, as today’s tariffs and other trade protectionism show." https://t.co/Wcm54bb9bL
China's Car Sales Slump 21% as Exports Surge 80%
1/4 According to Reuters, domestic car sales in China were down 21.6% year on year in April, even as car exports surged 80.2%. Everyone knows that domestic demand remains incredibly sluggish in China, but such sharp drops in domestic car... https://t.co/1pXBP8tJVw
Trump's Fury at Germany Threatens EU Trade Negotiations
Trump’s anger at Germany hangs over EU trade deal push https://t.co/W3Dp9jWroX via @AfPalasciano @europressos https://t.co/mx2HhVPgAj
EU Lags Behind in Global Critical Minerals Race
Race for critical minerals leaves the EU struggling to keep up https://t.co/aKOMiM6t2M via @jendeben https://t.co/w8GW85k9Y9
China's Infrastructure Push Fuels Iron Ore Rally
1/4 Bloomberg: "Iron ore rose as signs of solid Chinese demand offset concerns over rising supply" No surprise here. China needed to boost infrastructure investment sharply, and this had to be good for related commodities. https://t.co/xLQ6XURUTD
ECB Plans Two Rate Hikes in 2026 Amid Rising Inflation
ECB to hike rates twice in 2026 as inflation jumps, survey shows https://t.co/rmmGoo23tC via @NickHeubeck https://t.co/dLWVfE1Cc2
Price Controls Trigger Gas Station Closures, Shortages
Tragic but predictable: South Korea imposed communist-style price controls on gasoline… and gas stations started closing. Shortages incoming. Price controls never work
Sanctioned Iraqi Crude VLCC Crosses Hormuz, Faces US Block
📌This VLCC loaded with Iraqi Basra Medium crude just crossed the Strait of Hormuz. 📌Problem: the tanker and its Indian owner are under US sanctions. It slipped past the Iranians, but can it beat a US blockade? Watch for STS ops...
China's Steel Exports Dip to 2023 Low After 2025 Record
Chinese exported a record quantity of steel in 2025, which annoyed a lot of its trade partners. That pace has slowed somewhat this year. Year to date it's at the lowest level since 2023 (although still the fourth highest on...
Supercycle Looms as Capital Fuels Tech-Driven Growth
There is a rising probability that we have a super cycle based on: Increasing interest payments that need monetizing via the bank of system The reliance on short term bill issuance reducing cyclically of debt rollover. The largest capex boom in history based...
Brent Surges 4%, Threatening Global Economy Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Brent up over 4% Mon morning >$105. I see a Pakistan request in the works... or maybe it will be Qatar now. I see a Trump TACO coming. But seriously, this has gone beyond ridiculous now and dangerously damaging to the global...
China Will Act only when Iran Disrupts Its Interests
Trump hopes Xi will intervene with Iran But he will escalate probably next weekend if not, writes @TheMichaelEvery China will act only when disruption starts to hurt IT more than it hurts the U.S. And not a moment before. #China #Iran #Hormuz...
Tech Exports Fuel K‑Shaped Divergence Across Asia
A thread storm of Asia K-Shaped Divergence in Asia. In January, we published a note called EM Asia K-Shaped Recovery: Tech Exports to Lead Regional Economic Divergence in 2026, with India Lagging Even before the war, tech was driving divergence in performance...
Trump's Deal Gives China Unprecedented Leverage Over U.S.
Trump is poised to make a historic deal with China that gives it unprecedented leverage, writes @oren_cass The U.S. can threaten China all it wants—but China controls the materials that make those threats possible. This may be a rare case where...
China's Inflation and Producer Prices Beat Forecasts
JUST IN: China's April consumer prices rose 1.2% year-over-year, versus an estimate of 0.9%, and producer prices rose 2.8% year-over-year, versus an estimate of 1.8%.
China's PPI Surge Boosts FX, Not Equities
Good morning, China PPI rose to 2.8%YoY in April from 0.5% but CPI increased by much less at 1.2% vs 1.1% previously. Chinese equities have underperformed Japan, Taiwan, South Korea because of margin compression, subdued domestic demand, and thus less ability...
China’s Furniture Hub Struggles Amid U.S. Tariffs
The Factory Town Known as China’s Furniture Capital Is Fighting to Survive—The U.S. lost much of its furniture industry to China years ago. Now, American tariffs and overseas competition are punishing manufacturers. @hannahmiao_ @TByGraceZhu @GillSabrie https://t.co/tcjOyNuP9h
China’s Oil Aid Drives Asian Pivot From US
My take in @FortuneMagazine on China’s DIPLOMATIC POSITIONING: “China is deploying its 1.4-billion-barrel strategic crude reserve to aid its Asian neighbors while the US is blocking the Strait of Hormuz.” Seoul, Tokyo, and Jakarta are PIVOTING AWAY from Uncle Sam. https://t.co/PLQmOFRWfy
Trump‑Xi Imagery Hints China Reopens to U
The expected images of @realDonaldTrump and Xi together may still send a signal within China that it’s more acceptable again to engage with U.S. businesses, said Michael Hart, @AmCham_China. “Since U.S. military actions earlier this year, Chinese officials have been...
US Rejects China’s CEO Meetups to Avoid Perceived Closeness
The U.S. government declined #China’s invitation to organize industry-specific meetings between senior Chinese leaders and U.S. CEOs, thinking it could make American businesses appear too close to Beijing, according to a U.S. executive with direct knowledge of the arrangements. The...
China’s 2025 Chip and Magnet Ban Elevates Trump‑Xi Stakes
Because of China's global export restrictions on rare earth permanent magnets and Nexperia chips in 2025, virtually **everyone** has a stake in the outcome of the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting. by @anniekbyx https://t.co/MX4XRhYr1h
Administration's Blunder Strains Buffalo‑Ontario Cross‑Border Relations
A first person essay on the relationship between Buffalo and Ontario and how the current administration in one of the most spectacular and unnecessary geopolitical fuckups in recent time screwed this up. https://t.co/OVbI5E2nve
Iran Sees Ceasefire Extension as Strategic Advantage
iran continues to believe they have the upper hand in negotiations…and that extending the “ceasefire” benefits them, not the americans.
IMF Misses Surge in China's Surplus, Predicts Decline
The IMF didn't see the big rise in China's surplus coming. In fact, @IMFNews always forecasts that the surplus will dissipate -- From work in progress with Shahin Vallee 1/ https://t.co/Wp2uhY73cS
AI Boom Could Be This Generation’s China Shock
The AI boom may become this generation’s “China shock.” But instead of transforming global manufacturing, it could reshape knowledge work, productivity and economic power. The gains could be enormous. So could the disruption. https://t.co/LplPGs4a32 @fortunemagazine @sashrogel
Dollar Weakening Signals Imminent Rate Cuts and Market Shift
The recent behavior of the US dollar is increasingly consistent with a market anticipating intervention in the rates market ahead. Lower rates and a weaker dollar are no longer optional policies. They are becoming absolutely essential for the system to function under...
Debt Is Fine with Assets, Dangerous as Credit‑card Bill
The national debt is like a mortgage — not the problem, as long as there's a beautiful house attached to it. The worry is when it starts looking more like a credit card bill. https://t.co/RyhRr47GOI
China Acquires US Defense Assets Cheaply as Americans Fund Deficits
“Dollar dominance” as defined by many here on X = China buys up the US defense industrial base on the cheap while US Boomers & Banks buy negative real yielding USTs to finance US deficits (aka lose capital on a...
China Offers Aid as US Builds Walls
My take in @FortuneMagazine on the pivot away from the USA to China: “While Bessent was busying himself on Fox News, China was busy making friends by supplying those in distress with much-needed oil and other commodities…While Washington raises walls, Beijing opens doors.” https://t.co/E4hn2YdcN2
China Leverages SOEs to Weaponize Import Bans
I am not the first person to observe that when China decides to make a political point by not importing it makes that point forcefully -- by zero'ing out its imports from a specific country. Big SoEs control a...
Tariff Fears Debunked: Foreign Investors Still Buying US Assets
Remember a year ago when they told us that foreigners would sell US assets due to tariffs? Nice one from @Callum_Thomas putting that to bed. https://t.co/okFJv64ojx
Build US Factories, Let Chinese EVs Boost Electrification
Allowing Chinese EVs to be sold in the United States would accelerate electrification Just require them to build factories in the United States to sell without any tariffs.
Energy Pass‑through Keeps Core PCE Near 3%
GS: Energy Passthrough Will Likely Keep Core PCE Inflation Closer to 3% Than 2% Through Year-End https://t.co/P0LWNyKbtE
Hyperscalers Pour Record Capex Into US, Taiwan Economies
This is doing remarkable things for the economy. Rather than sitting on cash, the hyperscalers are deploying it back into the American and Taiwanese economies
Economy Expanding at Double U.S. Growth Rate
and that is at a time when its economy is growing at twice the rate of the U.S. economy
Gold Volatility Spike Signals Impending Stock Market Downturn
Hoping This Indicator Is Wrong? Gold Volatility Extreme peaks in gold vs. S&P 500 volatility have a tendency to front-run drawdowns in the US stock market. Is it different this time? My graphic of the spread between gold and SPX volatility...
Modi Urges Frugal Habits to Strengthen Indian Rupee
🚨Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s message to help Indian currency🚨 ❌ Do not purchase gold for a year. ❌Asked companies to promote work-from-home. ❌ Travel through public transport - Metro/Bus, Save petrol and diesel. ❌ Avoid foreign travels & destination weddings. ❌ Avoid foreign brands, rather...
Iran Conflict Triggers Recession, Accelerates Renewable Shift
principal near term impact of ongoing iran war: global recession. bad for everyone. principal long term impact of ongoing iran war: end of opec, faster move away from oil & gas towards post-carbon renewables. good for everyone, especially china.
EU and India Sign Central Banking Cooperation MoU
🇪🇺🇮🇳 I met @RBI Governor Malhotra in Basel to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on cooperation in the field of central banking. Looking forward to continued good cooperation. Read the press release https://t.co/uFmnxvTaFg https://t.co/uCVDSJtddt
Buy Asian Cyclical Exporters on Trade‑talk Dip
US–China trade talks in S.Korea (May 12–13) signal detente; risk if talks falter. Trade insight: buy Asian cyclical exporters on dip. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Questioning Flawed Research on Banks' Dollar Holdings
Mr. Balding needs to back up his assertion here -- What part is wrong? The increase in banks foreign assets? The SCB's rising dollar holdings (in SAFE's data) The policy banks' dollar lending (from AIDdata) 1/2 https://t.co/bGHKNMvvNj