ECB Must Intervene if Iran War Endangers Price Stability
ECB must act if Iran war threatens price stability, Nagel says https://t.co/XRboBjnoxo via @jrandow https://t.co/eWSZmFGVoL
Bessent Predicts Inflation as a Brief, Transient Blip
*BESSENT: EXPECTS INFLATION TO BE A SHORT-TERM, TRANSIENT BLIP already training the new guy to re-adopt the word "transient". Good luck to Warsh
Japan Denies Oil Futures Intervention, Keeps Option Open
Japan has publicly denied it had intervened in the oil futures market Speaking overnight, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Tokyo hadn’t intervened but added the government had never ruled out such an option.
Record Margin Debt Yet Bullish on Chinese Stocks
According to Bloomberg, margin debt lending in China jumped to a record 2.8 trillion yuan on Monday, extending gains into a fourth session. Risk is rising, but I continue to expect that Chinese stocks will do well over the rest...
EU Energy Leaders Address Market Strains Amid Middle East Conflict
Excellent bilateral meeting with Chancellor Christian Stocker of Austria (@_CStocker) in Vienna We discussed recent developments in European & global energy markets amid the conflict in the Middle East and @IEA's support for countries as they navigate today's challenges https://t.co/sEHkxTcCMh
India Already Taxes Windfall Profits on Fuel and Gambling
India's done this already with "super profit tax" on petrol exports when we were able to source cheaper crude from Russia. We've had special taxes on "super normal" profits - from lotteries to gambling for ages.
India's Current Account Shows Surplus in 11 of 12 Quarters
If you removed gold, India's current account has been a surplus (not a deficit) for 11 of the last 12 quarters. It's useful to reduce imports, or somehow reuse it internally. https://t.co/28WhfFnOrV
Import Bans Would Push Gold Prices Higher
If gold imports are banned, prices would go up no? Supply lower and demand still high? Indian gold price always higher than in Hong Kong for example because demand is higher and due to import duties.
Indians Buy Gold to Hedge Inflation and Rupee Decline
Gold imports = gold purchases at lower price = higher asset value as gold has appreciated. Indians buy gold because it's a real asset and a good hedge against inflation or depreciation of rupee vs USD and vs gold.
Core CPI Set to Rise as Shelter Inflation Rebounds
Forecasters expect a higher core CPI reading in April owing partly to how the BLS made an assumption during the government shutdown's data blackout that lowered shelter inflation. That quirk goes the other way now. https://t.co/HnH5OR4uWd
US Chamber Warns Limited Window to Counter China’s Supply‑chain Push
US Chamber of Commerce has warned that countries have only a “finite” window to respond to Chinese policies that are deepening reliance on its supply chains and harming the global economy. The Washington-based lobby group said Beijing was “doubling...
US Imports From China Plunge, Vietnam and India Rise
China’s share of goods imported to the U.S. has fallen from 22% at the start of Trump’s first term in 2017 to just 7.5% in the first three months of this year, as American companies have shifted supply chains for...
Venezuela Still Holds World's Highest Inflation at 529%
#VNZWatch🇻🇪: Today, I measure Venezuela's inflation AS THE WORLD'S HIGHEST at a CRUSHING 529.1%/yr. That's down from a peak of 828.6%/yr on February 4th. YOU WON’T FIND THIS IMPORTANT STORY IN THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA SPIN. https://t.co/BXznEebbH4
Higher Energy Prices Naturally Balance Supply and Demand
But they are already doing that by pushing for demand destruction. By telling people to work from home, reduce mobility, refiners to not buy so much oil or spend foreign exchange, or refiners not able to pass on higher input...
Tariffs Hurt Consumers, Ranchers Block Trump’s Trade Gains
Worst of all worlds for Trump, tbh. Admit imports lower prices (and tariffs increase them), but don't get any actual market benefit bc of opposition from profiteering US ranchers & their GOP friends in Congress.
Australia's Debt Rose to 32%
15 years ago Australia had almost no net government debt (5-6% to GDP). Since then, despite ongoing economic growth of 2-3% avg, and essentially full employment, the govt has run increasing deficits such that net debt/GDP is now ~32%. Almost...
Food Prices Spike Again, Vegetable Oil Leads Surge
The FAO Food Price Index rose for a third straight month in April, hitting its highest level since Feb 2023. Vegetable oil prices led the surge, rising 5.9% MoM. THE US-ISRAELI WAR'S COLLATERAL DAMAGE IS MASSIVE. https://t.co/Z5NCEspTDb
Old Wall Bets Inflation Slowing Ahead of CPI
The Old Wall is running for the "inflation is slowing" exits, the day before CPI prints. Thanks for coming out
Labor Share Climbed 1950‑2000, Then Plummeted
If we use a net measure of the labor share, we see that the labor share ROSE from the 1950s until around the year 2000, and then began to collapse.
Warsh Nomination Sparks Fed Politicization, Prompting 10Y Selloff
Macro: Warsh nomination raises Fed politicization. Key: White House pressure, rate path, balance-sheet plans. Risk: policy uncertainty. Trade: shorten duration—sell 10Y Treasuries into June meeting. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
U.S. Loses Narrative Control, Not Iran, in Middle East
The real story in the Middle East isn’t Iran, it’s the collapse of America’s ability to control the conversation. #iranwar #geopolitics https://t.co/O1zF2WSdCN
Defining Shipping Normalization Amid Strait of Hormuz Uncertainty
Shipping normalization and Strait of Hormuz stability. When will it happen? How will normalization be defined?
Democrats Coons, Fetterman Back Warsh Fed Nomination
Two Democrats, Coons and Fetterman, voted yes on the motion to proceed with Warsh's Fed nomination.
Middle East War Could Cost US Households Billions
From the Financial Times article seeking to estimate the economic cost of the Middle East war to US households, businesses, and the federal budget. #economy #markets #middleeastwar @financialtimes
CPI Test Will Challenge Chip Rally Amid War‑driven Inflation
Is the stock market really immune as the US-Iran war fuels inflation? Incoming US CPI data will test if the narrow chip stocks rally can continue to ignore economic headwinds. #StockMarket #stockmarkets #IranWar #cpi #macro #dollar #trading https://t.co/LImbMLZv4B
Copper Hits Record High on Data‑Center Demand, Mine Disruption
From the Wall Street Journal: "Copper prices notched a new record high Monday, rising on strong demand for data-center construction, supply disruptions at one of the world's largest mines and surging input costs." #economy #markets #inflation #copper @wsj
Lithium Prices Jump 24%, Signaling Commodity Supercycle
Lithium carbonate prices have SURGED over 24% in the past month, reaching their highest level since 2023. As I’ve said, "We're entering a commodity supercycle. I like lithium and vanadium.” STAY LONG or GET LONG. https://t.co/esoCtb8RoX
Is China’s Reserve Shift Real Insight or Overfit?
Question for @EtraAlex and other students of the TIC data. Is this overfitting to the last known data point, or valuable new insight into where China's reserve holdings appear now that it is minimizing the use of US...
Fed's Rate Cuts Aim to Balance Jobs and Inflation
Monetary policy is a blunt, highly imperfect tool. The Federal Reserve, unique in having a dual mandate of promoting price stability & full employment. When both of its mandates are out of whack, it has to assess which is more...
Copper Scarcity Drives 77% Price Surge Since 2023
It's been three years since this fireside with @ErikSchatzker at @BloombergLive’s @QatarEconForum in 2023. The message is even truer now than it was then: copper is fundamental to the global economy and when it comes to supply, there’s just not...
Sumner Hails Halperin as Pragmatic NGDP‑Targeting Economist
Scott Sumner on @BasilHalperin: "I see Halperin as a pragmatist in the tradition of Bennett McCallum, which is one reason why he’s my favorite young macroeconomist... Like McCallum, Basil Halperin seems to have absorbed both the best of New Keynesian...
US‑Israeli War on Iran Fuels Farmer Planting Crisis
Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, spring planting season is turned into a DISASTER for American farmers. They can’t afford two key inputs: fertilizer and diesel fuel. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/BaHfrAjtfl
U.S. Economy Still 1.5× Larger Than China
There were predictions about China overtaking the U.S. economy by now, but the U.S. is at least 1.5 times bigger at $32 trillion vs China’s $20 trillion. China’s economy has been plagued in recent years by deflation, a property crisis and...
Trump to Slash Beef Tariffs to Curb Meat Prices
US President Donald Trump will sign an executive order to, in effect, lower tariffs on foreign beef imports as the White House struggles to reduce meat prices.
China’s $1 Trillion US Reinvestment Sparks Network‑Style Alarm
Discussion of a prospective $1 trillion dollar reinvestment plan by China into the US is basically this scene from Network👇 https://t.co/htvQHKHiXH
Trump Dismisses China Investment Deal, Chooses Confrontation
This FT piece says Chinese officials and business groups explored major investments in US infrastructure, manufacturing and green technology before and around the 2024 election period. But instead of pursuing a “grand bargain” based on inward investment and economic cooperation,...
EU Greenlights Mexico Deals Ahead of Historic Summit
JUST IN: The European Council approves Mexico deals before their first summit in over a decade.
Inflation Near Three-Year High, Data Expected Tuesday
JUST IN: Tuesday's inflation data is expected to indicate prices at nearly a three-year high.
Markets Rally as Iran Peace Hopes Fade
JUST IN: Oil, stocks, VIX, and yields rise as hopes for an Iran peace deal plunge.
UK Sanctions Iranian-Linked Network over Attack Plots
JUST IN: The UK sanctions a network linked to Iran, citing attack plots and finance operations.
USMCA Uncertainty Triggers Stock Market Spillover Effects
"From Trade Agreement to Trade War: USMCA, Tariff Uncertainty, and Stock Market Spillovers" https://t.co/y7YeegL2TO https://t.co/fsDht48TW1
OPEC Output Drops to Record Low Amid Hormuz Disruption
JUST IN: OPEC oil output hits a new low in April due to Hormuz export disruption.
Market Soars Amid Hormuz Tensions, AI Offers Explanation
Austin: Iran's neighbors are not cool with them having sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, so this conflict will not be resolved for a while ... and yet the market is ripping anyway. 🚀 Ram: This entire market can be explained by...
US Spots China's Oil Weakness, Trump Leverages It
Chris Perkins on Iran: The US has identified a vulnerability with China -- in terms of oil. Trump is feeling like he has some leverage and is bringing American businessmen and women to get deals done. https://t.co/74yrKrKmOJ
Dollar Shorts At Risk as Hawkish Fed Looms
I think dollar shorts are vulnerable here and I'm not sure DXY's next go at 100 is going to hold again. Economic data continues to show stabilization and improvement while inflation will worsen in the near-term. Hawkish is the path...
April CPI Set for Double Surge: Crude Spike, Core Correction
Tomorrow's April CPI will be a double whammy. Headline will surge because of crude and core will set higher to correct for the "error" from last Oct because of the government shutdown.
S&P 8,200 Triggers Record CAPE, Sub‑1% Yield
Ballpark 8,200 on the S&P gets us to an all-time high CAPE ratio and sub 1% dividend yield... Think it happens in 2026? https://t.co/MHciDgAS42
Beyond Hormuz: Global Energy Chokepoints at Risk
Strait of Hormuz Just One of Many Vulnerable Global Energy Chokepoints Abishur "Mr Geopolitics" Prakash discusses which other oil/LNG chokepoints in the world might be blockaded next. #cdnpoli https://youtu.be/zK6jI-whBkY
ESLR Reform Proved Liquidity Forecast Right
Remember when a lot of pundits said that liquidity would weaken this year, and that risk assets would not get the fuel? I kept referring to eSLR as an overlooked reform, and it has been pretty damn spot on. This...
China Controls Rare Earths Powering U.S. Tech
My take in @FortuneMagazine on China’s ace - rare earths: “Every advanced weapons system, electric drivetrain, wind turbine, and smartphone in the US runs through China’s critical materials.” The rules are being rewritten, and they are being rewritten in Beijing. https://t.co/m5S1TtrB5g