Social•Feb 18, 2026
S&P Adds $500B, Gold Climbs; PCE Inflation Watch
WHAT A DAY, the S&P 500 has gained around $500 BILLION in market cap, up 0.8%. The index is now up 0.3% YTD 📈 Gold is also trading higher, back above $5,000/oz, as global tensions start to escalate 😳 Mark your calendars for Friday, the PCE report is out. It’s the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge 👀
By Peter Tuchman (Einstein of Wall Street)
Social•Feb 18, 2026
History’s Empire Cycle Reveals Today’s Global Power Shift
Empires rise. Empires peak. Empires fall. Medieval thinkers understood the structural forces behind power, decline, and transition. Those same cycles are shaping the world today. Understand the pattern. Know what comes next. Read more at davidmurrin.co.uk #Geopolitics #EmpireCycles #History #Strategy #GlobalPower
By David Murrin
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Geopolitical Tension Drives Gold Surge—Position Now
Gold is on the move🔥 As tensions in the Middle East rise and Iran escalates, markets are reacting and gold is back in focus When uncertainty rises, gold shines ✨ Big moves could be ahead. The question is… are you positioned? Trade Gold with...
By Kathy Lien
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Gold Rallies 13% as Tech Stocks Stumble
While the Magnificent Seven tech stocks have SUFFERED in 2026, GOLD IS UP over 13%. It's time to turn away from SILLY VALLEY. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/PZTIJFhPOp
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Sector Rotation Timing Yields Asset‑rich Returns
The Great Rotation: From Growth to Asset Rich Value My job is timing sector rotation & picking the best stocks long/short within it. That & sizing up macro event risk & market structure support. That's how I could time the...
By Samantha LaDuc
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Markets Mirror Trump’s Shifting Policy Narratives
You just have to respect markets and the games they play Trump first term: Public is all about long Energy, short Solar.... Solar stocks go on an epic run Trump 2nd term: Tariffs going to crush International economies.... International stocks just thrashing...
By Joe Kunkle
Social•Feb 18, 2026
De-Dollarization Undermines US Military Financing Power
De-Dollarization Threatens US Military Power The dollar’s role in global trade is shrinking. As it loses value, I see us losing influence and even military strength, because our military depends on financing powered by the dollar. The markets are already showing...
By Peter Schiff
Social•Feb 18, 2026
UK Inflation Hits 2025 Low, Strengthening BoE Rate‑Cut Case
UK inflation slowed to its weakest level since March 2025, bolstering the case for an interest rate cut when the Bank of England meets next month https://t.co/yJqzpiJ61p via @irinaanghel12 @PhilAldrick https://t.co/a5Mov7Jkhv
By Zöe Schneeweiss
Social•Feb 18, 2026
ECB Study Finds Tariffs Sparked Minor China Trade Diversion
Tariffs caused just a small China trade diversion, ECB study shows https://t.co/2xTwmZXdG6 via @weberalexander https://t.co/NfggkusEyQ
By Zöe Schneeweiss
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Successor Must Be Independent, Pro‑Europe After Surprise Resignation
Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau says his successor must be independent and committed to Europe after his early resignation gave President Emmanuel Macron a surprise opportunity to pick the next central bank chief https://t.co/VVGP1D9Dj6 via @WHorobin https://t.co/rmqeTU4qJ7
By Zöe Schneeweiss
Social•Feb 18, 2026
USD Coils Near Key Levels, Breakout Imminent
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Coils Between Key Levels – Breakout Looms https://t.co/CxUMkIN5mg $DXY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/ILpuVkkqnw
By Michael Boutros
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Equities Up, Trend Flattens Amid 4% Yield, Rotation
As for the markets, last week the Dow briefly reached the 50k milestone while the S&P 500 continued to hang out just below 7,000. The 10-year yield has been flirting with 4% again and the terminal rate for the Fed’s...
By Jurrien Timmer
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Russia's Pipeline Strike Sparks Absurd Diesel Bans
Russia: bombs Ukraine, damages an oil pipeline to Europe. The collaborator regimes in Hungary and Slovakia: banning diesel shipments to Ukraine because Russia damaged the pipeline. The level of inhuman grotesque borders on stupid comedy.
By Illia Ponomarenko
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Critical Minerals and Energy Drive Global Economic Competitiveness
Very good meeting with 🇺🇸 US Assistant Secretary of State for Economic, Energy & Business Affairs @CalebOrr__ We discussed developments in global energy markets, the importance of critical minerals for energy & economic security and energy’s role in boosting competitiveness https://t.co/Z4YDq3jEJG
By Fatih Birol
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Dollar Holds Firm Despite Weak Conviction and Recent Lows
US Dollar is Mostly Firmer, amid Weak Conviction: The US dollar was sold to new session lows against several currency pairs late in the North American afternoon yesterday, but there has been little follow-through today. The greenback is firmer against…...
By Marc Chandler
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Upcoming UST Auctions May Cool Rally, Create Opportunity
Busy UST auction schedule in the next eight days could finally slowdown the rally a bit and offer an opportunity. Brand new 20s ($16B) today, new 30y TIPS tomorrow ($9B), and regular size/schedule 2s, 5s and 7s next week.
By Ed Bradford
Social•Feb 18, 2026
China Quietly Amasses Dollar Reserves Despite Official Narrative
Anyone who trusts official Chinese reserve data is a fool. The blind spot in the official narrative about China "dropping the dollar" is China's continued SHADOW dollar reserve accumulation, which looks like the below chart👇 The big January increase in state banks'...
By Izabella Kaminska
Social•Feb 18, 2026
2024 Forecast Missed: Iran Tensions Now Escalate
Some of my armchair geopolitical analysis from 2024 where I expected a cooling of tensions and no conflict with Iran. Circumstances are very different today.
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Equity Volatility Spike Defies Traditional Buying Signals
Good read on *market stress* from GS: “Our vol stress index closed the week registering 9 out of 10. Historically, readings of >9 have been buying opportunities, but this time ‘feels different’ as the increase in panic has not come with...
By MacroCharts
Social•Feb 18, 2026
USD Rebounds but Short‑term Conviction Remains Weak
$USD recovered from the late sell-off in North America yesterday. It is trading firmer against most G10 currencies, but short-term participants seem to lack much conviction. Key US data and SCOTUS still lie ahead. See https://t.co/Ax3iZrTLT7 https://t.co/01M5ylxWt7
By Marc Chandler
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Markets Surge Higher After V‑Shape Recovery—Implications Ahead
The markets are extending higher after yesterday's V-shaped recovery - here's what it means 👇
By Kathy Lien
Social•Feb 18, 2026
ECB Yield Caps Mask Fiscal Fragility, Exit Bond Markets
ECB yield caps give the illusion of fiscal sustainability, but it's just an illusion. A real shock like Russia's invasion of Ukraine shows high-debt countries have no money to help Ukraine. For the sake of Europe, the ECB needs to...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Aging Populations Strain Southern Europe; ECB Must Relinquish Yield Caps
Once you reach 60, your conditional life expectancy is another 20+ years. Problem in Southern Europe is that relatively few people work, so population aging becomes very expensive for the state. That only gets fixed if the ECB steps back...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 18, 2026
US Energy Chief Declares Net‑Zero 2050 Impossible
Net-zero by 2050 has “zero point zero chance of happening,” says US Energy Secretary Chris Wright ahead of the biennial IEA ministerial meeting in Paris. (This ministerial meeting will mark a turning point in global energy policy making across industrialised...
By Javier Blas
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Egypt's M3 Surge Drives Inflation Beyond Target
Egypt's inflation rate is 11.9%/yr. Egypt's money supply (M3) is growing at 22.7%, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range from 13.1%/yr-17.1%/yr, consistent with hitting its inflation target range of 5%/yr-9%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/V2EApGpMCY
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 18, 2026
China Delays Auto Sales Data, Signaling Weakening Market
The Economist: “Last month the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, another state-backed trade group, appears to have deferred the publication of its weekly sales data—a sure sign of growing anxiety over weakening numbers.” https://t.co/feytAJBiP2
By Jonathan Cheng
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Shift to Equal‑weight, Financials, and Cyclical Assets
Wow, the goat is also rotating out of Megacap tech, long equal weight performance vs market cap, long financials for deregulation and curve steepening, and long real cyclical assets Feels good man
By Felix Jauvin
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Global Indices Inch Higher as India VIX Plunges
Global Market Update: Gift Nifty +50.50 (0.20%) 25,760.50 DowJones +32.26 (+0.07%) 49,533.19 Nasdaq +31.71 (+0.14%) 22,578.38 India Vix -0.6600 (-4.95%) 12.6700 S&P 500 +7.05 (+0.10%) 6,843.22
By stock_n_trade
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Markets May Slip as Fed Delays Rate Cuts
Will stock markets tip over amid worries about the Fed dragging its feet on rate cuts? FOMC meeting minutes are in focus. #stockmarkets #fed #fomc #dollar #macro #trading https://t.co/yYSQfOx27L
By Ilya Spivak
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Saudi Crude Shipments to China Hit Multi-Year High
Saudi Arabia’s projected March crude oil shipments to China are set to reach a multi-year high. When it comes to commodities, China is always the elephant in the room. Maybe this is a bullish sign? Stay tuned. https://t.co/d55SdnfvJv
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Chinese Capital Sneaks Into Bitcoin via Offshore IBIT Vehicle
Something caught my eye in the latest 13F filings. The biggest new entrant into IBIT, from a brand new entity, is something called Laurore Ltd. No website. No press. No footprint. The only public information is that the filer's name is...
By Jeff Park
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Ford Pays Millions in Tariffs After Supplier Fire
"Tariffs, supplier fire continue to batter Ford" https://t.co/3FKQwD9ycE That Ford is having to pay millions in aluminum tariffs simply bc its domestic supplier caught fire is one of the better/stupider examples of US tariff policy today: https://t.co/eOL1o1zgXf
By Scott Lincicome
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Central Banks Amass Record Gold, China Adds 357 Tonnes
Central banks around the world have spurred one of the largest gold-buying waves in history. The top 15 buyers added ~2,000 tonnes. China alone added over 357 tonnes since 2020. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/8Gm9M05oo3
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 17, 2026
UK Unemployment Peaks Since COVID, Youth Jobless at 16%
#UKWatch🇬🇧: UK unemployment levels have reached their HIGHEST LEVEL since COVID. Youth unemployment ROSE TO 16.1%. RUSSOPHOBE STARMER’S GOVERNMENT IS FLOUNDERING. https://t.co/4jk4KQ1Q5I
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Iranian Rial Crashes as US‑Iran Nuclear Talks Begin
Today, US-Iran nuclear talks began in Geneva. As the talks start, the Iranian rial is in the tank. It has depreciated by over 43% against the dollar in the past year, making it THE SECOND WORST CURRENCY IN THE WORLD. https://t.co/PORIO6lGtc
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Labor Market Dynamism Drives Real Competitive Advantage
Labor market dynamism is the real differentiator. I make sure to stress it in my public talks https://t.co/jO6lNyPm8W
By Brian Albrecht
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Fed Says AI Boom Won’t Prompt Rate Cuts
Fed governor Michael Barr's latest speech contains 1) A short part on the current policy outlook. The key guidance: "Based on current conditions and the data in hand, it will likely be appropriate to hold rates steady for some time." 2) A...
By Nick Timiraos
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Sanctions Spawn Shadow Fleet, Aging Tankers Scrapped in India
US sanctions squeezed Russian and Venezuelan oil shipping out of mainstream markets. A shadow fleet emerged. Now aging dark fleet tankers are arriving at Indian scrapyards at a record pace. SANCTIONS = WORKAROUNDS = UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES. https://t.co/GddyWzZwZd
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Wheat Export Inspections Outpace USDA Target by 59M Bushels
Marketing year to date #wheat export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 59 million bushels, versus 61 million the previous week. #oatt
By Arlan Suderman
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Iran Shuts Hormuz for Drills Amid US Nuclear Talks
"Iran says it temporarily closed the Strait of Hormuz as it held more indirect talks with the US." https://t.co/Ek0ckZEw6N Iran announced the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuzon Tuesday for live fire drills in a rare show of force as its...
By John Spencer
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Third-Generation Auto Bailouts: How Long Until They're Considered?
How many years away are we from the third generation of auto bailouts being on the table?
By Adam Ozimek
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Business Inflation Expectations Return to Pre‑Pandemic Levels
Two different measures of business inflation expectations have essentially returned to pre-pandemic levels. The Atlanta Fed survey (dark line), which asks businesses how much they expect their own unit costs to change, is back at 2%—right where it was in 2019....
By Nick Timiraos
Social•Feb 17, 2026
TLT Seen as Lower High, Still Hating Treasuries
I think I might be the only person in the world who still hates US Treasuries here. $TLT is just another lower high imo until proven wrong.
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Chinese State Banks Boost FX Securities by $90B Monthly
Notable acceleration in the fx securities book of the Chinese state banks (And their reverse repo/ other funding of global financial institutions) in January -- consistent with the $90b monthly increase in the reported fx balance sheet https://t.co/PNDncW2w2s
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 17, 2026
U.S. Corn Inspections Surpass Expectations, Soy Exports to China Strong
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn inspections easily beat all trade expectations (though they weren't a weekly record). FYI the previous week's corn volume was hiked significantly. Soy inspections were near the top end of estimates - 57% of the beans were...
By Karen Braun
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Mistaking Short‑Term Labor Shortage for Full Employment Undermines Jobs
I disagree, but I don't think David is alone in this. To me, the biggest risk of confusing a temporary labor supply shortage that drives up inflation with full employment was that it would undermine actual full employment. We are...
By Adam Ozimek
Social•Feb 17, 2026
IEA Paris Meeting Tests Net‑Zero Shift Against US Oil Priorities
For energy policy making, a key week in Paris as @IEA energy officials gather Feb 18-19 for a biennial ministerial meeting. The IEA’s drift toward net-zero advocacy and overtures to China will be tested as US officials push to a return...
By Javier Blas
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Swiss Market Hits Record High as US Stocks Slide
Switzerland is hitting a new all-time high again today as U.S. stocks break down to new 6-month lows relative to European stocks. https://t.co/z6UH4K1Vfo
By J.C. Parets, CMT
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Nowcast IQ Predicts US Growth Despite Market Pessimism
A few of our weekly inputs have come in for US growth. We continue to rebound hard cyclically. EURUSD down, US assets (soon) up, and ISM PMI towards 60 by summer. Our Nowcast IQ is telling a VERY contrarian story to...
By Andreas Steno Larsen
Social•Feb 17, 2026
SPY Poised to Break November Range Amid Key Data
Is it finally the week $SPY breaks this range? Stuck here since November. Reports scheduled this week: - U.S. Trade Deficit Report (Thu) - GDP (Fri) - Inflation Report (Fri) - Consumer Sentiment (Fri)
By Hyperstocks