Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Literally no one in the mkt seems to care that Hormuz has been shut for a month, but if they start hitting datacenters, we may finally crash…🤣
According to Jeff Currie, distinguished economist and commodity market guru, even if the US-ISRAELI war on Iran ends soon, the damage to supply chains has been done. Oil flows will be disrupted for months or years. https://t.co/SxmxwhkvAY
Serbian police found explosives near the Balkan Stream gas pipeline. It supplies Serbia and Hungary with gas from Russia. PRIME SUSPECT = UKRAINE. Stay tuned. https://t.co/AHjq0mZhzB
I analyzed fifty S&P 500 10-Ks. The data is wild. I scanned for 8 risk themes: tariffs, war, geopolitical risk, oil/energy, sanctions, supply chain, interest rates, and recession. Morgan Stanley has 221 mentions of geopolitical risk. Citigroup has 269 mentions. Bank of America had...
This is a high-stakes week for the bond market. The recent spike in crude prices - fueled by the conflict in Iran - will show up in March’s inflation data. The consensus on Wall Street is a headline print...
American drivers have paid an additional $8.4 BILLION in fuel costs since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran. The cost of regular gas has JUMPED from $2.80 to $4.11 per gallon since January 11. AMERICANS DRIVERS SHOULD SEND A BILL...
Many French post offices are declining all US mail citing US tariffs. This means Americans in France are struggling to send their tax returns and sending via Fedex, DHL instead. This has voting implications if it continues.
U.S. chemical producers like Dow are outperforming the S&P 500, with shares up about ~6%, as access to Persian Gulf crude (a key ingredient for plastics) tightens due to the Iran war
Even if the Iran war "ends" politically, it doesn't end This is a world-changing event. Rhetoric resolves in weeks. Flows in months. Systems in years. The disruption to energy, shipping, & trade flows are irreversible and permanent in many ways. #IranWar #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #GlobalEconomy...
JUST IN: Trump's team is texting Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi to push forward negotiations, with Pakistani, Egyptian, and Turkish mediators also in play.
The future unfolding in plain sight: GDP growth propped up by data center construction. Low unemployment propped up by healthcare jobs. https://t.co/aADxNaQXij
Major drop in crude oil inventories in Japan, followed by India. US and China are up! Make you own conclusions.
When an argument is made that "Our debt doesn't matter because we owe it to ourselves"...that is code for "we can print the money and just debase the currency"...
The US’ single biggest export in February was “non-monetary gold.” Gold has been the US’ biggest export in 4 out of the past 5 months (it was the 2nd biggest export in the 5th mth.) Trump is partially settling US trade deficits...
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India’s export mix has been REWRITTEN in the past 30 years. Services SURGED from 17% in 1995 to 45% in 2023. In the meantime, as a share of total exports, textiles and agriculture COLLAPSED. https://t.co/rjJl7fH9a0
S. Jaishankar, India's Minister of External Affairs on the importance of hedging: “Hedge, de-risk, diversify is how India navigates a fractured world.” STRATEGY OVER NOISE. INDIA PLAYS THE LONG GAME. https://t.co/Y303y6Dl2Q
March CPI on Friday will show how the oil spike hit consumer prices. Meanwhile, Fed Minutes offer a window into policymakers' early thinking on the Iran conflict. 🟢 Open https://t.co/51FrxswWr9
Macro: governance reform, weak yen, AI-capex support Japan equities. Key: buybacks, rising margins, supply-chain leverage. Risks: demand weakness, policy shifts. Trade: buy exporters on dips. —Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
JUST IN: Trump says an Iran agreement could close by Tuesday, or he'll destroy everything.
JUST IN: Iran is now requiring cryptocurrency payments as tolls for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump's $1.5T military budget request is MASSIVE. $1.5T is larger than the entire economies of Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, & Türkiye. It’s almost the entire size of Indonesia’s economy & roughly HALF the size of France's entire economy. TRUMP = PLOWSHARES INTO SWORDS....
JUST IN: Trump's ultimatum: Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday night, per WSJ.
A Faustian Bargain, the Battle of the Bulge and Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact - President Trump's conversion to crypto zealot helped get him elected and pumped prices to nosebleed levels. That Faustian-like bargain is unraveling. Stocks may be next. - The "unlimited friendship" between...
92,000 jobs lost. Unemployment rising. The dollar cracking at its foundation. Mainstream economists are calling this a surprise. I have been warning about this for years because unlike conventional theory, my models actually include money and energy. Labor without energy is a corpse....
Asian countries (excluding China) only hold 30 days of fuel in reserve. If that isn't bad enough, they rely heavily on oil shipments from the Persian Gulf. IN THE COMING DAYS, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SQUEEZE AND HIGHER PRICES...
Listen to the question carefully then listen to the answer. Those waiting for US Leadership in solving the Strait of Hormuz issue, you are gonna be disappointed. They have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA how to solve the issue. In less than 2 weeks, global...
Multiple euro-region industrial reports will draw attention this week, although their focus on February — before war began in the Middle East — may limit their utility for investors https://t.co/CfoQtcZf4b via @CraigStirling https://t.co/tAswRZZD3n
My homework this weekend - went from max optimism in Jan: tax refunds, tariff repeal, easy Lliberation Day comps & resilient consumer. To extreme pessimism in April: higher gas prices, war, global growth slowdown and higher inflation....
With where mortgage spreads are at with the Fed Funds Rate, 8% rates would need a booming economy with job and wage growth picking up again Spreads got as high as 3.11% in 2023, currently at 2.11% https://t.co/25afwLqFtN
•“Reserves” ≠ instantly usable supply These barrels are spread across countries and fields, and many aren’t quickly accessible. •Logistics constraints Transport, refining, and geopolitics limit how fast oil can be deployed.
US crude oil production breaks new records. What does this mean for other countries? For the American public? More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/WAXH5XLi1r
The bond market is telling you what equities refuse to accept. Rate cuts aren't coming. This rally is just a bounce before the binary. https://t.co/Mh5FYZAawT
My friend and Johns Hopkins colleague Vali Nasr on Iranian nuclear proliferation: “Rather than preventing [Iranian] nuclear proliferation, the US may have actually accelerated it — and has no way of stopping it.” https://t.co/UctRpvmg1s
“America doesn’t need Hormuz” misses the point, writes @vtchakarova Oil is global. Prices are global. Risk is global. You don’t need the barrels to feel the shock. It hits through inflation, rates, and the system itself. #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Inflation
During the next three months, the trade balance of all countries competing with the United States will be hit hard. The US will be the least impacted. Exactly as happened in 1974!
Every Saturday. David Murrin’s key predictions from the week’s latest insight. This week — the Strait of Hormuz. And what’s really at stake.
Another pivotal week is on tap for the global economy and markets. Please see why in this, my weekly note on recent developments and immediate prospects (links below). https://mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-910?r=33wip https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-look-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-zecrc?lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_series_entity%3BIEUjQgDHQGSDuxWPLz3R%2BQ%3D%3D #economy #markets
My article for market conditions, themes and top event risk for the week ahead (and some of the charts): Bull or Bear: What is the Prevailing Wind for Risk Appetite? https://t.co/TVXg9nQEKj https://t.co/NqWkTckR31
Another week of heavy data but don't be mistaken Iran War will run the show 👇 🇺🇸 US - ISM Services -CPI -Fed Minutes -Durable Goods -Personal income/spending -UMich 🇪🇺 EZ -Retail Sales -PMI Rev -GE Trade & IP 🇨🇦 CA -IVEY -Jobs 🇳🇿 NZ -RBNZ -PMI 🇦🇺 AU Retail Sales
Real economy "builders" need money. They can source money from investors or consumers. Since Covid, investors and consumers had money from massive fiscal and monetary policy actions. Builders got all the money they needed from consumption plus more from...
For decades, the erosion of America's industrial capacity has been gradual and largely ignored. First, it was foundational sectors: solar, batteries, furniture, footwear, pharmaceuticals. Now, the shift is moving into advanced industries: materials, biotechnology, semiconductors and increasingly, technology and software. This is not...
I keep hearing the word complacency regarding oil prices. Maybe. But the real complacency is in global debt markets. We have an inflationary shock and fiscal policy that - especially in Europe and Japan - is out of control. This...
The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.3% (blue) and looks benign. But 10y10y forward yield (red) is 5.5% and pushing above pre-2008 levels. The global debt crisis waits for no one. Fiscal policy is out of control and geopolitical uncertainty makes...
2020-2026 1. We go from 3% fiscal deficits for 30-40 years to 6-8%. Bush: $150B to $400B Obama: $1.1T to $400B Trump Biden: 1.4T to $3T 2. Go from “just in time” supply chains in a unipolar world, far fewer global conflicts to a multipolar...
On yesterday's live stream, I discussed which oil prices to watch, why the Dollar failed to rise on Friday's strong payrolls and the large drop in gold holdings of Turkey's central bank, which is entirely a function of the decision...
The bulk of crude oil out of the Persian Gulf - before the war - went to Asia. That dependence is now creating a giant hole, which is what's driving up oil prices globally. Especially hard hit are Pakistan (PK),...
A new Factful Friday is up! (I'm catching up for the lost weeks.) https://t.co/fwpvB8ElNV 👉At 12:01am on 9 April 2025, US tariffs hit historic highs. The biggest American tariff hike ever. 👉By lunchtime, most of them were gone. ⭐Grievance-fuelled tariffs had collided with financial...
⭕️When markets are in panic, asking countries not to hoard oil is like asking people in a lifeboat not to ration the food — everyone knows the supplies might run out before rescue arrives, and self-preservation kicks in hard. ⭕️China...
Tariffs sustain US steel prices; infrastructure demand firm. Nucor: scale + scrap verticals; Commercial Metals: rebar exposure, M&A. Risks: demand slump, tariff rollback. Trade: Buy Nucor for FCF upside. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China Daily notes that non-performing loan disposals are rising, suggesting that China is slowly developing a bad-loan market, even as record low net-interest margins make it harder for banks to recognize bad loans. https://t.co/UhXgPDv3nE
