Bond Market Pressures ECB to Hike Despite Credibility Doubts
🇪🇺 Olli Rehn is basically giving up to the idea that the ECB "needs to hike" to "preserve credibility". The bond market is doing part of the heavy lifting for the central bank, but it’s also forcing their hand because they worry the sell-off will worsen if they don’t hike.
US‑Israel Conflict Threatens Iran’s Oil Market Stability
Fabulous work explaining the oil consequences of the US/Israel War on Iran here — featuring @eurasiagroup colleague @gregbrew24. https://x.com/Phil_Mattingly/status/2057127031020695987/video/1
Powell’s Eight-Year Fed Tenure: Inflation Shocks and Independence Fight
From the FT article, “Inside Jay Powell’s turbulent eight years leading the Fed: Central bank chair’s tenure was marked by inflation shocks and his battle to protect the institution’s independence.” #economy #inflation #markets
Brazil's Money Supply Outpaces Golden Growth, Fuels Inflation
#BrazilWatch🇧🇷: Brazil's CPI accelerated to 4.4%/yr in April. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 10.8%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3.0%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/fXT7WuR6yE
Inflation Stays Above 2% Target for 62 Months
This is an all-time great line from today's FOMC minutes. Can someone please remind the Fed that inflation has been above their 2% target for...62 straight months.
China Boosts Wheat Imports as Pork Imports Plunge
🇨🇳China's grain imports in the first four months of 2026 were up from the same period last year, especially in wheat. Meanwhile, pork imports fell 30% amid strong domestic output. Soybean imports were up 8% year-on-year but below the period's 5-year...
Inflation Stays Above 2%, Validating Fed’s Firming Warning
Worth juxtaposing the latest Fed minutes with the subsequent inflation data Fed: “A majority of participants highlighted… that some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2%” Inflation data: https://t.co/d3UCcBz0os
Global Slowdown, Sticky Inflation Push Short US Treasuries
Macro: global growth slows; central banks pivot. Key factors: easing PMIs, sticky core inflation, USD strength. Risks: recession, policy missteps. Trade: short US Treasuries. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
MDLZ Raises Dividend, Analysts Boost Targets – Buy Dips
Macro: defensive staples; Key: MDLZ $0.50 qtr div (3.26%), 12th raise; strong Q1 EM sales; analysts raise PTs. Risk: commodity inflation & geopolitical supply shocks. Trade: accumulate on dips. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China to Acquire 200 Boeing Jets Conditional on Demand
#China announces plans to buy @Boeing jets but with qualifiers: "in accordance with market demand" as per state media. $BA @ChinaDaily https://t.co/KmpXwtGfKK "An official from the Department of American and Oceanian Affairs at China's Ministry of Commerce said on Wednesday that...
Fed Must Raise Rates to Calm Bond Market
Bond Bloodbath Worsens on Inflation, Lax Fed, and Flood of New Debt. Mortgage Rates hit 6.75%. Ugly trifecta that spooks the bond market. To soothe bond yields and mortgage rates, the Fed needs to hike, not “look through” inflation https://t.co/72CxReYpFf https://t.co/Xc0zN599gF
China, U.S. Secure Limited Trade Deal on Jets, Beef
China, U.S. Reach Limited Trade Agreements on Boeing Jets, Beef Imports—China’s commerce ministry said it hopes the U.S. will further eliminate unilateral tariffs in future trade talks https://t.co/tDP1YxT4fy https://t.co/tDP1YxT4fy
Low Money Growth Keeps Malaysia Inflation Near Target
Malaysia's March inflation is 1.72%/yr. Malaysia's money supply (M3) is growing at ONLY 5.5%/yr. That's well BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 7.33%/yr, consistent with hitting Malaysia's inflation target of 3%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/SrGX0AEZwf
Zero‑rate Era Produced Massive Bond Issuance Worldwide
Where are they now? Globally, bonds issued when interest rates were near ZERO, 2015–2021, though total global long-term fixed-income issuance (per SIFMA) was higher (~$158 trillion cumulatively). - Grok https://t.co/XCQZy1Rgxn
Stocks Rise as Bond Yields Normalize for Growth
Everyone is freaking out about rising government bond yields...except for the stock market Rising yields on 30 year govt bonds and rising stock prices in both Japan and the US What if bond yields are just normalizing for a higher growth/inflation world?...
Global 10y10y Forward Yields Surge Amid Bond Sell‑off
We've officially reached the "brutal" stage in the global bond market sell-off. The 10y10y forward yield (red) is making new highs all over the place. Japan's 10y10y forward has risen 30 basis points in just a few days. Even Swiss...
Putin Declares Russia‑China Relations at Unprecedented Level
Xinhua: “Urgent: Putin says Russian-Chinese ties reach truly unprecedented level—…Vladimir Putin delivered a video address on Tuesday before his state visit to China. ‘Today, Russia-China relations have reached a truly unprecedented level,’ Putin said.” https://t.co/GFYCp7T8Yn
Regional Integration Offsets Harm of U.S. Discriminatory Tariffs
"Discriminatory Tariffs, Trade Diversion, and the Economic Impacts of Recent U.S. Trade Policy" https://t.co/s1LB7u7p56 "Regional economic integration emerges as an effective mitigation strategy" https://t.co/QBMsun0Vkh
Japan’s Finance Chief Seeks Excuse for More Weak Interventions
Japanese Finance Minister looking for the next reason to pull the trigger on another wave of - likely underwhelming - intervention
Bond Yields Mirror Mean‑Reverting Economic Surprise Indexes
Economic surprise indexes are mean reverting. Therefore, in an environment where bonds are unsupported by the central bank and thus reflect nominal growth, bond yields are also mean reverting. https://t.co/JvsmHTTqwP
New Fed Chair Seeks Rate Cuts, Data Pushes Back
From the Wall Street Journal article, "The Economy Kevin Warsh Is Inheriting Is Not the One He Wanted: The next Fed chair wants lower rates. See the data that might make that impossible." #economy #markets #federalreserve #inflation @wsj
Kevin Warsh Confirmed as Fed Chair; Markets Start Mixed
Mixed markets to kick off the very first week on a new Federal Reserve. Kevin Warsh is officially confirmed as the new Fed Chairman. His policies will shape markets for years to come.
India's Energy Dependence Drives Cost Surge Amid Tensions
Energy and Input Costs: India imports nearly 90% of its crude oil and LNG. Geopolitical tensions (specifically the US-Iran confrontation and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz) have sent energy prices soaring. This trickles down to everything from freight...
Fed Faces Stubborn Inflation Amid Iran Conflict
The Fed in hot seat The war in Iran is adding fuel to an already well-kindled fire. Inflation has persisted for five years, with its effects compounding over time. Those shifts create a hard backdrop for new supply shocks tied to...
Tim Duy Summarizes Current State of Kevin Warsh
From @TimDuy a great, succinct summary of where things stand at the Kevin Warsh era begins. https://t.co/9JB3vt7Mqe
Britain Needs a Fresh Fiscal‑Monetary Blueprint, Not Silence
A new fiscal-monetary framework to renew Britain. This by Louise Haigh in @RenewalJournal pairs well with Chartbook 449 on the silence around the Bank of England: Voldemort on Threadneedle St. https://t.co/XN0sAzyeUS
Trump Clinches Historic China Deal on Rare Earths
Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Secures Historic Deals with China, Delivering for American Workers, Farmers, and Industry China will address U.S. concerns regarding supply chain shortages related to rare earths and other critical minerals, including yttrium, scandium, neodymium, and...
Concentrated Chinese Manufacturing: Efficient yet Risky, Partners Must Manage Trade
Good piece "It’s no longer controversial to say that while having so much manufacturing concentrated in one place might be efficient, it is also dangerous" China's trading partners are increasingly concluding that their trade with China needs to be managed --
Tight Treasury Yields and Credit Spreads Signal Imminent Break
Here's the contradiction nobody's discussing — 10-year Treasury yields sit at 4.59%, above the long-term average of 4.25%. That signals tight monetary policy or term premium expansion. At the same time high-yield credit spreads are at 276 basis points, near...
10Y Yield
10Y at 4.59% above long-term avg of 4.25%. HY spreads at 276 bps tight to history. Bond market priced for perfection on both sides of the curve.
Record Equities Drive Metals, Crypto Amid Inflation
Record Equities Are the Key Difference vs. 2008 The latest consumer price index reading of 3.8% is above the effective federal funds rate, a pattern last seen before the Great Recession. My graphic shows a similar CPI-fed funds trajectory, recovering from...
G‑7 Leaders Grapple with Global Imbalances After Trump‑China Meeting
World imbalances trouble G-7 finance ministers and central bank chiefs in the wake wake of Trump’s China encounter https://t.co/1m9IbLR8mv via @WHorobin @DanielPFlatley https://t.co/SWUIM4wc1f
US, China Eye Tariff Cuts on Non‑critical Goods
"US eyes Board of Trade with China to cut tariffs on non-critical goods" https://t.co/QDdTqLYgnB This, of course, raises more Qs than As. Beyond the obvs when/what, 1) Why do we have tariffs on this stuff rn; and 2) Why are...
Core PCE Climbs 3.3% YoY, Highest Since 2023
BofA: Our economists are now tracking +3.3% YoY core PCE in April – the highest since 2023 https://t.co/kiWMvw9BU9
China’s State Banks Hold $1.5 Trillion, Eclipsing Japan’s Reserves
The net foreign asset position of China's state banks (in both dollars and RMB) is now $1.5 trillion -- a rather big sum (close to 1/2 China's formal reserves, a sum bigger than Japan's reserves ... ) 1/ many https://t.co/Rd90nZTcgw
Bond Yields Surge, Signaling End of Reckless Fiscal Policy
Long-term gov't bond yields made new highs for the UK (orange), the US (black), Japan (red) and France (green) this past week. I've banged on for a year how markets' attitude to debt has fundamentally changed. The days of reckless...
Xi’s All‑Encompassing Industrial Policy Redefines Global Strategy
Great @WSJ from @greg_ip: "Xi Jinping has elevated Chinese industrial policy into something the world has never seen. It targets almost every industry and region, demand as well as supply, services as well as goods, the sophisticated and the mundane. Its...
Massive Treasury Sale Sparks Yield Spike, Fed Lags
US Government Sold $691 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week, 10-Year Yield Spikes to 4.6%, 30-Year Yield to 5.12% as 2nd Wave of Inflation Takes Off. The Fed is “behind the curve,” and the bond market is getting nervous https://t.co/ibFFTlMODv https://t.co/K9WhKU6pvt
Hedge‑fund‑run Treasury Will Cushion Rate Impacts
You think rates are going to blow up the economy, anon? You under estimate the difference it is having a macro hedge fund manager running the Treasury. He knows the game, the stakes and he knows the dials. No one is going...
Long‑term Yields Finally Correct Unsustainable Oil‑spike Pricing
This week's global spike in long-term yields is about an unwind of something that was unsustainable. When oil prices spiked months ago, money market curves (blue) priced central bank hikes, but long-term yields (red) didn't rise. That's now correcting... https://t.co/wLyQataCjN https://t.co/IUcD0KAzNo
10-Year Treasury Yield Near Record High, Treasury Says Focus
Reminder “The president wants lower rates… He and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury and what is the yield of that.” — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, 2/5/25. The 10-year yield at 4.60% is just 2 bps from the highest yield since...
Premium Macro Week Review & Preview – May 15
Premium Users: Macro Week in Review/Preview May 15, 2026, on the blog and here https://t.co/UTsJ4Khqme
Crude Prices Surge Toward $110 Amid Stalled Iran Talks
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈 Crude prices rise back toward $110 and term structure firms again as US-Iran talks stall out and Trump’s trip to China fails to yield any meaningful breakthrough. Summary below, full report in reply....
Rates Surge, Fed Likely Must Hike Despite Trump Pressure
$TNX Monthly. Real issue here is that if this 3-4 year breakout in rates is just starting, Fed is way behind curve needing to hike. Even more with Trump pressuring Warsh for *cuts* https://t.co/3rAPbd4qGv
10‑Year Yields Surge 5% Amid Inflation Fears
10 yr #yields +5% on the week, 4th biggest rise of past 2 yrs on disturbing inflation reports but Trump's spin team busy covering China trip. Rebuttals: ecnmy strong enough to handle high yields. AI is full of cash to...
PCE Inflation Set to Hit 3.7%—Hottest Since 2023
🔥A post mortem on the inflation data this week and what it means for the Fed ‘s target PCE measure. The energy prices are hot and to be expected. The components of CPI, PPI and import prices that feed directly...
30-Year Yield Hits Bush-Era
The last time the 30-year yield traded at this level, George W Bush was President. Let's see if it closes at this level (5 PM ET). https://t.co/WKu0a9lHZB
10-Year Forward Yields Hit Record, Signaling Global Debt Crisis
It's been my view for some time that we're in a global debt crisis, with markets losing confidence that gov'ts will ever fix fiscal policy to bring down debt. Today's a good reminder this is going on. 10y10y forward yield...
Treasury Yields Spike Above 4.5% Amid Inflation Fears
This is getting very serious. Yg paling ditakuti? INFLASI “As of May 15, 2026, U.S. Treasury yields have surged to approx 1-year highs, with the 10-year note climbing above 4.5% due to rising INFLATION fears, surging OIL prices, and expectations of...
Rising Rates Push Global Bond Prices Into Decline
Interest Rates Up - long term Bond Prices Down, we are crashing globally. UK: 5.81%* US: 4.53% Germany: 3.11% Japan: 2.70% *UK 30s, highest since 1998.