Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Social Media and Updates
Global Economy Pulse
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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
While Everyone Watches Oil and Tariffs, USMCA Looms - https://t.co/D7EQGyKCLJ #USCMA #Mexico #Canada #globaltrade #supplychain #logistics
This chart is fine as a simple comparison of historical inflation experiences, but the current tenaciousness of inflation is due to different factors, and is happening in a different policy context, from the inflation of the late 1970s. 1/2
Is the dollar’s global dominance foundation starting to crack or just facing a few termites? 🐜💵 I sat down with former Fed & Treasury insiders @steven_kamin & @sobel_mark to unpack threats to dollar dominance, fiscal policy, Fed independence,...
More evidence that even U.S. friends and allies don’t trust Uncle Sam and are hedging, pivoting away from the USA. https://t.co/Sn8dFUs5GJ
Distinguished economist & commodity market guru Jeff Currie on oil supply and demand: "Once we exhaust our ability to draw down inventories [in] mid to late April... demand has to come crashing down in line with supply. The key question is...
Okay, so here’s how how the ceasefire cookie crumbles: - A ceasefire without the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will likely be unacceptable to the US. - A ceasefire with a reopening will likely be unacceptable to Iran. Iran appears serious...
Japan’s greatest days are ahead of it, as it recommits to its partnership with America Europe’s best days are behind it, as it moves away from its alliance with the US
China moves upstream in production networks. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/z8YSI2hXDR
It’s strange how Summers is often implicitly covered as if he were the only economist who warned about inflation in 2021 The dominant forecast was it would be transitory (there’s still debate as to whether it ended up being a really...
The US is running on borrowed time in this war. The average price of one gallon of gasoline isn't yet at the $5 it reached in 2022 after Russia's Ukraine invasion, but it's heading there if this war continues. That...
'Walking on eggshells’: How Trump is managing his delicate China truce “We don’t unwind a generation of outsourcing and product dependency quickly. I mean, you just can’t without such massive disruptions that it’s really not worth it. You’re killing the...
A ceasefire is coming. Two things will get repriced quickly when that happens. Oil futures will tumble and the Dollar will fall sharply. The latter is up on safe haven inflows to the US. All those inflows will unwind very...
From the Bloomberg article on “Saudi Arabia rais[ing] the price of its main oil grade to Asia to a record high premium.” This price development coincides with more Asian governments worrying about physical energy supplies—marking part of what I’ve termed "Phase...
Jamie Dimon. JP Morgan. Iran war. Change GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS. Across industries and market sectors. Oil and its distillates and derivatives. Petrochemicals. Sulfur. Alumina. Fertilizer. More.
One year ago, after the rollout of reciprocal tariffs, "Sell America" was all the rage. But there never was a "Sell America" trade and no "Hedge America" trade either. Foreign inflows into the US are at record highs. Actions speak...
Cease-Fire Hopes Blunt US Ultimatum: The US deadline on Tehran for re-opening the Strait of Hormuz has subtly shifted until tomorrow. The holiday-thinned market initially bought dollars and oil and took risk off in response to the continued attacks and…...
New @nberpubs: "Tariffs, Global Value Chains, and the Incidence of Protection: Evidence from US Automobiles" https://t.co/qydVvo0gkV Extending tariffs to intermediate inputs doubles consumer losses, "and producer surplus for U.S.-headquartered firms declines by about $2.6 billion" 😲
🚨 JUST IN Saudi Arabia has just increased its official oil selling price to a record high of $19.5/barrel. Inflation in Asia is about to skyrocket. https://t.co/dtEBhiWdgT
singapore shipping fuel market going off the chart—this is shipping fuel shortage live. at that price, shippers will defer orders, park their ships and either wait till the war is over or go out of business.
"U.S. Manufacturers Of Heavy-Duty Trucks Face A Tariff Disadvantage" https://t.co/ihpfPPczuL "There are three sets of tariffs affecting the cost basis of trucks manufactured in the U.S." https://t.co/l6SoB2YgXQ
European efforts to build trade systems that exclude the U.S. are inherently flawed. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/wTTMKJCfX2 #eu #trade #geopolitics https://t.co/gxyaAjNqwT
Hope of a cease-fire between US/Israel and Iran has captured the imaginations of the holiday-thinned market today. The negotiators themselves reported are not optimistic. $USD gave back earlier gains and is posting a possible outside down day. See https://t.co/Km1zBLaVJG...
The Kremlin, asked on Monday about threats made by U.S. President Donald Trump against Iran, said that the level of tension in the Middle East continues to grow, and that the whole region is "on fire".
It's "off topic" for Macro Tourists this morning, but its still happening Japanese Bond Yields ramping to new #Quad3 Cycle Highs as markets price in higher inflation https://t.co/tz4Pb6zTgP
COMMODITIES: New #Quad3 Cycle Highs last week should keep Bond Yields in breakout mode https://t.co/m2QLuLPYDZ
“… Despite high gasoline prices, the U.S. economy is holding up. Abroad, though, interest rates and inflation risks have shot up, fuel is being conserved, and economic forecasts are darkening…” — @greg_ip https://t.co/tifsrZ3N3S
Good Morning from #Germany, where the labor market looks healthier than it really is. Headline employment is holding up, but productive jobs in manufacturing are disappearing. Growth is coming in state-funded sectors, while the country’s export engine keeps losing ground....
“Moscow’s windfall profits from the Iran war remain high as Brent crude trades above $100 a barrel, but attacks on Russia’s two main export locations in the Baltic Sea may cut into the Kremlin’s windfall. Five attacks on Primorsk and Ust-Luga...
Saudi Arabia has increased its official selling price (OSP) to a record high. The state-owned Saudi oil giant told refineries in Asian it would charge a premium of $19.5 a barrel over the regional benchmark for sales of its flagship...
"The problem is there was never enough cash to fund all his [Crown Prince MBS] ambitious initiatives." Indeed. That's why measures lie the balance of payments breakeven are useful. The Saudis needed $90 plus oil -- or near...
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Due to foreign debt repayments, Pakistan's foreign reserves are set to shrink by a STUNNING ONE-THIRD this month. PAK = THIRD WORLD = IN THE TANK. FREE IMRAN KHAN. https://t.co/QKr6kb5Sop
Uncertainty over how the Iran war will affect the global economy is stirring volatility in interest-rate swap markets https://t.co/6hCS7QWGmZ via @highisland https://t.co/GLOEYbXZko
🇮🇳India’s Russian crude imports rebound sharply — up nearly 94% in March MoM and 10% YoY. https://t.co/O0zIu8LcIi
An interesting question to ponder is whether Chinese overcapacity is essentially indirectly subsidizing the electrification of the "global south". It's similar to countries buying oil on the cheap, typically to stockpile. At the moment, oil is of course not cheap....
Qatar is attempting to send LNG shipments through Hormuz for first time since the Iran war started 🚨🚨 If successful, this would be the first time a loaded LNG tanker has gone through Hormuz in over a month. ~20% of global...
According to Jeff Currie, distinguished economist and commodity market guru, we’re only seeing the start of what will become a major oil catastrophe. At present, we’re burning through oil inventories. Once inventories dwindle, oil prices will SPIKE. THE WORST IS YET TO COME....
China imports US oil for Asian fuel markets amid Hormuz crisis @asiatimesonline https://t.co/Iy0aRy8vam China is moving to resume large-scale purchases of United States liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil, as supply disruptions in the Middle East and tightening fuel markets...
1/7 Martin Wolf, in an important piece on unsustainable current account imbalances, makes a point that most American economists miss: "the counterpart of external deficits tends to be unsustainable domestic borrowing." https://t.co/h7ob7Aac6A via @ft
Extraordinary data from the last 20 years showing changing fortunes across the worlds top 15 economies on the level where it matters : the individual. These figures get even more dramatic if we switch to PPP. If we factor inflation...
Dozens of empty Qatari LNG tankers sit idle across Asia 🇶🇦🚢 The world's top LNG export plant in Qatar has been shut for over a month, upending the gas market and leaving the nation's fleet of ships without orders Hormuz has also...
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India’s net energy imports have exploded over the past 2 decades. Net energy imports have SURGED more than 4x since 2000. MORE ENERGY IMPORTS = MORE VULNERABILITY. https://t.co/PxS0fxVpuJ
Hormuz isn’t controlled. It’s poisoned. There's no blockade & no toll booth. Iran has made transit so dangerous that no rational vessel owner moves. Iran's "approval" through exemptions is bullshit Flows remain stopped except for a few tankers willing to take great risk. #Hormuz #IranWar...
You can paper over financial losses, but you can’t paper over lost barrels, says @LynAldenContact You can print money. You can’t print oil. Shut Hormuz and the problem isn’t financial—it’s physical. No barrels. No flows. No workaround. #IranWar #Hormuz #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #SystemShock
In case you have not read it. remember, the biggest conspiracy theory is Iran closing the Hormuz strait. Think about it!
Trump's 48-hour Iran ultimatum just sent oil futures through the roof. This geopolitical tension could spell trouble for broader markets. Going live in 2 hours to trade this volatility with our DOTS indicator signals. https://t.co/66dSROeuCi https://t.co/E2Zf77HxKR
JUST IN: President Trump's tariffs targeted Chinese manufacturing, but one electronics firm concluded after a turbulent 2025 that China remains a hard-to-replace hub if conditions stay stable.
The Western press continues to repeat untruths about Russia's economy. Russia has grown at a modest rate since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. Whereas, Ukraine's has sunk. HANKE'S 95% RULE = 95% OF WHAT YOU READ IN THE PRESS IS EITHER...
Today, Ukrainian drone strikes SET FIRE to Russia’s major oil export terminals in Novorossiysk. The port handles over half of Russia’s crude and petroleum product shipments. YOU DON'T WANT TO BE SHORT OIL. https://t.co/XlgmcpVhsH
The “normal” postwar economy that everyone misses was the most unusual moment in all of economic history. Military spending was just one aspect…
If you were wondering whether the President’s weekend bender helped or hurt the long-term interest of American business, futures markets just opened, and delivered their verdict. https://t.co/YNWdATAMmc
