Social•Feb 20, 2026
Core PCE Near Target; Fed Cuts Still Unlikely
Q4/Q4 core PCE inflation was 2.9% last year (vs. 3.0% in 2024). Trump's statement on the GDP report includes a parenthetical jab at the Fed chair, but there's not much of anything in this report that tells the Fed it needs to cut anytime soon. https://t.co/T9YNiD61ly
By Nick Timiraos
Social•Feb 20, 2026
2025 GDP Volatile, PDFP Shows Steady Growth
Did 2025 feel like a wild ride? GDP feels your pain. The quarterly swings were big and short-lived. PDFP, which focuses on consumption and private fixed investment, showed more even, solid gains. https://t.co/LlVwQ7yna5
By Claudia Sahm
Social•Feb 20, 2026
US Underlying Domestic Demand Grew 2.4% in Q4
US GDP: A gauge of underlying domestic demand—real final sales to private domestic purchasers (GDP less inventory change, net exports, and government spending)—grew at a 2.4% annualized rate in Q4 https://t.co/XefZvVp18v
By Nick Timiraos
Social•Feb 20, 2026
Trump’s 5.4% GDP Claim Was Just a Model
Remember when Trump was bragging about Q4 GDP growth, quoting a 5.4% rate? That was the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, not the actual. Now we have the actual: 1.4%. Moral: Don't take GDP "trackers" or anyone citing them, remotely seriously....
By Ian Shepherdson
Social•Feb 20, 2026
Protecting Domestic EVs Requires Tariffs or Local Content Rules
Very good Rhodium piece on the cost advantage of Chinese EVs: “In practice, countries seeking to protect domestic industries have two broad options. One is to impose very high tariffs that account not only for subsidies but also for structural...
By Michael Pettis
Social•Feb 20, 2026
UK Retail Sales Record Fastest Growth in 20 Months
UK retail sales begin the year with the fastest growth in 20 months https://t.co/GPGNaZk4Oa via @irinaanghel12 https://t.co/kAm5UcAWvQ
By Zöe Schneeweiss
Social•Feb 20, 2026
Busan Deal: US Sacrific
The impact of the "Busan" deal is now in the trade data -- the US clearly gave up a bit of tariff revenue (lowering the tariff on China) for a bit of supply chain peace, and the prospect of...
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 20, 2026
IMF Estimates Chinese Yuan Undervalued by Roughly 19%
Just how undervalued is the Chinese yuan -- the IMF (via the Economist) just revised its estimate up to 19% (plus or minus 4%) 1/many https://t.co/IJ4Z1SmGIq
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 20, 2026
Exclude Pharma and Gold to Reveal True US Trade Trend
I think the best way to look at the underlying trend in the US trade data is strip out pharmaceuticals and gold (both were heavily influenced by the threat of tariffs, even though none were imposed on either category) 1/ https://t.co/7l20zR7CTr
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 20, 2026
Rising PMI Could Spark Market Melt‑Down, Delay Fed Cuts
Will the stock market melt down if the US economy heats up, banishing traders' hopes for Fed rate cuts? All eyes turn to PMI data to find out. #stockmarkets #USD #fed #pmi #economy #interestrates #macro #trading https://t.co/fgEbuQrjnq
By Ilya Spivak
Social•Feb 20, 2026
Strategic Partnership Shouldn't Just Be German Production in China
Hope the "strategic partnership" is more than allowing German companies to produce in China for the German (and European) market ...
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 20, 2026
Trump's Tariffs Fail, Trade Deficit Widens to $70 B
Pres. Trump promised his steep tariffs would narrow the trade deficit and spark a manufacturing revival. New federal data show the U.S. trade deficit widened to –$70.3B in December 2025. So much for Trump's trade spin. https://t.co/NIGIRs4sQt
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 20, 2026
US Stock Market Hits Record Concentration: Top 10 Own 40%
🚨US market concentration BUBBLE in one chart: The top 10 US stocks make up a record 40% of the S&P 500 market value. At the same time, the weight of the largest stock in the S&P 500 relative to the 75th percentile...
By Global Markets Investor (newsletter author)
Social•Feb 20, 2026
HSBC Cuts US DCM, Shifts Focus to Asian Banks
Macro: HSBC trims ~10% of US DCM in broader $1.8bn cost overhaul and pivot to Asia/Middle East. Key factors: management cuts, M&A/ECM pullback. Risk: execution/credit cycles. Trade: favor Asian bank equities. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
By Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA
Social•Feb 19, 2026
South Korea, Turkey, Thailand Lead YTD Market Gains
Best performing stock markets in the world (local currency) year-to-date. 1. S Korea +34.7% 2. Turkey +24.1% 3. Thailand +18.6% In Asia only Indonesia, India negative. Malaysia is up only 4.3%.
By Azharuddin | Azha Investing
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Buy Newmont on Pullbacks as Gold Rises
Macro: gold up on rate‑cut hopes & geopolitics. Key: Newmont beat as realized $4,216/oz offset 24% output drop. Risk: output erosion, volatility. Trade: buy Newmont on pullbacks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
By Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Energy and Materials Surge as Tech Falters in 2026
This is a pretty cool chart to show your investment committee. A classic stock price-to-corporate profits image that reveals extended conditions reminiscent of the turn of the century. If this chart has any prescience, we should remember that the leaders...
By Jeff Weniger
Social•Feb 19, 2026
91 Days, Two Rate Calls, Then Warsh Takes Over
Only 91 days and two more rate decisions (Mar 18 and Apr 29) before Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ends (May 15th). Then it is the Warsh era...
By John Kicklighter
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Fed‑Treasury Coordination Must Be Transparent, Not Secret
Fed independence was a 20th century virtue. Fed inter-dependence is a 21st century necessity. The question was never whether the Fed and Treasury coordinate-it's whether that coordination happens in the dark or in the light The American people deserve monetary transparency...
By Jeff Park
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Grey Swan Risks Amid Busy Global Macro Calendar
While I will keep an eye out for grey swans catalyzing (Iran and Supreme Court's decision on tariffs principally), the global macro docket picks up through Friday. Top event risk includes: Japan CPI; February PMIs; Mexico and Canada retail sales; US...
By John Kicklighter
Social•Feb 19, 2026
AUD/USD Rally Pauses Near 2023 High, Streak Threatened
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Rally Stalls Near 2023 High – Four-Week Streak at Risk https://t.co/srtBKcRq3k $AUDUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/oGQK6Jc1uV
By Michael Boutros
Social•Feb 19, 2026
AI Data Centers Drain Power of 100k Homes
According to a report from the International Energy Agency, an average AI datacenter consumes as much electricity as 100,000 households. AI = HIGHER ELECTRICITY PRICES = AN AFFORDABILITY PROBLEM. https://t.co/65QNfr2y4U
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Copper Prices Jump 44% Year‑Over‑Year
Copper prices have surged to an average of $13,012/mt in January 2026 from $8,991/mt a year ago. That's a WHOPPING 44% INCREASE. BUY COPPER, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/FIhvIikhjQ
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Small‑cap Outlook Dim Amid Credit Crunch, AI Slowdown
Asking for a friend how small caps are going to perform after everyone piled in long behind the economic reacceleration trade while private credit implodes, the AI capex buffer declines and the Fed remains on hold...
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 19, 2026
US Strike Risk Adds Premium to Oil Market
Expectations of a possible US strike on Iran—currently oscillating between wait-and-see and watchful anticipation—have introduced a risk premium into an otherwise well-supplied oil market. My talk w/ @KellyCNBC @CNBCTheExchange https://t.co/XwyD5XmiRg
By Daniel Yergin
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Bipartisan Push for 3% GDP Deficit Cap Gains Momentum
I Love and Endorse the Bipartisan 3 % of GDP Budget Deficit Solution In the House of Representatives there is now a bipartisan bill in the works to enact, and a growing agreement that we need, a 3% cap on the budget...
By Ray Dalio
Social•Feb 19, 2026
India's Exports Surge Despite Higher US Tariffs
From the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects: Indian merchandise exports rose despite higher US tariffs. MODI’S ON A ROLL. https://t.co/yxKowcoHyv
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 19, 2026
European Spies Say Russia Isn’t Seeking Peace, Talks Futile
“European intelligence chiefs are pessimistic about the chances of an agreement being reached this year to end Russia's war in Ukraine, despite Donald Trump's assertions that U.S.-brokered talks have brought the prospect of a deal ‘reasonably close’. The heads of five...
By Rob Lee
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Fuel Subsidy Masks Real Service Cost Surge
1.6% is a statistical illusion for the urban middle class While headline inflation is stable, the "unprotected" service sector is aggressive: Personal Care & Misc. → 6.6% Education → 3.2% Cause→Effect: Subsidized fuel (-0.7%) masks the reality of rising service labor costs. If you...
By David Chuah
Social•Feb 19, 2026
India's 6.5% Growth Beats China, Fastest Major Economy
As the World Bank notes, India is the fastest-growing major economy. India's growth rate of 6.5% is even outpacing China's. https://t.co/3S7a6Z6LbT
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Nikkei Rises; Buy Nikkei ETF Amid FX Risks
Nikkei +0.71%; real estate, banks, textiles led; VIX-Nikkei 27.89. Leaders: Yokohama Rubber, Omron. Risks: FX (USD/JPY 155.11), commodity shocks. Trade: buy Nikkei ETF. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
By Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA
Social•Feb 19, 2026
India Drives South Asia's 6‑7% Growth; Rest Lags
According to the World Bank, South Asia growth stays near 6-7%. Strip out India, and the region slows sharply. India is the growth story. https://t.co/Q8e7g9b1j3
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 19, 2026
China Cuts US Treasury Holdings to Crisis Low
🚨Chinese officials had urged banks to limit purchases of US government bonds, and instructed those with high exposure to SELL their positions. Data shows China’s holdings of US Treasuries fell to $682.6 billion, the lowest since the Financial Crisis.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-the-us-dollar-gradually-losing-its-safe-haven-status
By Global Markets Investor (newsletter author)
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Indonesia Leads Malaysia in Palm Oil and Economic Growth
What do Indonesia and Malaysia have in common? They are the two biggest palm oil exporters in the world. Since 2008, Indonesia’s economy has outperformed Malaysia’s. https://t.co/mTUct95oZv
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Rising Capex May Curb Buybacks, Pressure Valuations
With credit spreads low and profit margins seemingly on the rise, valuations seem OK at current levels. These two variables are important drivers for the equity risk premium, which is currently at 4.0% according to my version of the DCF...
By Jurrien Timmer
Social•Feb 19, 2026
North Korea's Inflation Soars to 74.6%, World’s Third Highest
#NKWatch🇰🇵: Today, I measure North Korea’s inflation at 74.6%/yr — that’s the THIRD HIGHEST IN THE WORLD. Kim’s rockets fly, but inflation is what’s truly SKYROCKETING. https://t.co/EbYJ0oBnAW
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Korea's Index Slides Below Historical Average After 150% Surge
It’s wild how Korea’s stock index is trading below its historical average following a nearly 150% price rally https://t.co/TyCTVuO5pW
By David Ingles
Social•Feb 19, 2026
IMF: China's Export Growth Harms Its Trading Partners
The latest IMF analysis of China (The staff report/ Article IV) highlights that China's export driven growth has come at the expense of its trading partners. That is welcome, and very necessary message 1/many https://t.co/RTYAzRkFAv
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 19, 2026
TLT Call Skew at 90th Percentile, Expect Shakeout
Yep- Skew on TLT (calls expensive to outs) like 1 month out is in the 90th%tile. Gonna get shaken out before yields go lower. Let’s talk about this tomorrow on @ForwardGuidance
By Tyler Neville
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Blue Owl Stops Redemptions, Highlighting Exit Liquidity Risk
BLUE OWL PERMANENTLY HALTS REDEMPTIONS AT PRIVATE CREDIT FUND AIMED AT RETAIL INVESTORS — FT Being long scarcity might lead to illiquidity, but being long illiquidity doesn’t necessarily mean you’re long scarcity You’re long exit liquidity
By Jeff Park
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Korean Reforms Spark Value Ups, Awaiting IBKR Access
I initially thought the Korean reforms would be ineffective. But on the ground, I’m seeing many companies come up with highly positive value up plans. And valuations remain a fraction of those in Japan. Once IBKR opens access, the focus...
By Michael Fritzell
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Fed Minutes Omit 2% Inflation Target Date, Signaling Uncertainty
One more note on the Fed minutes: Sometimes it's interesting what they don't say. Last year at every meeting until December, the staff forecast called for inflation to return to 2% by 2027. In December, the forecast pushed this back to...
By Nick Timiraos
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Long‑duration Assets Like Bitcoin, Growth Stocks Lose Favor
Bitcoin's drop has coincided with a decline in the Russell 1000's Pure Growth P/E. What do they have in common? Both are long-duration, and are being shunned during the underlying rotation into shorter-duration (cyclical) securities (think value, dividend payers, Energy...
By Michael Kantro
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Defensives Hit Dot‑Com Lows, Poised for Rally
Chart of the Week - Defensives With tech in trouble (+a number of macro risks lurking on the horizon), defensives are starting to look interesting… Defensives (i.e. an equal-weighted basket of: Utilities, Healthcare, Consumer Staples) are turning up vs the S&P500 —after...
By Callum Thomas
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Packed 24‑Hour Macro Calendar: Japan, US, China Data
The global macro docket for the next 24 hours of trade pics up. Japan has machinery orders, mfg activity survey, a 1-year and 20-year JGB auction, Jan CPI. Walmart and Alibaba report earnings. US and Canada trade balance. PBOC rate setting. Start...
By John Kicklighter
Social•Feb 18, 2026
US Vaccine Policy Shift Boosts MRNA Stock Appeal
Macro: US vaccine-policy swing heightens regulatory risk; FDA will review Moderna’s flu shot. Key: public dispute, amended filing; decision by Aug 5. Risk: political oversight. Trade: Buy MRNA. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
By Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Income Gaps Fuel Migration Across CARICOM Nations
Stark differences in income drive migration within CARICOM (and these are official data). More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/DaCnHTI3Wj
By Adam Tooze
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Tariffs Inflate Prices and Act Like Hidden Corporate Tax
A) Many studies have examined whether tariffs have been passed through to consumer prices, and they've found significant retail price increases B) Tariff burdens absorbed by US companies are an inefficient corporate tax, paid by Americans via lower wages or share...
By Scott Lincicome
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Debt-Based Money Ensures Perpetual Debt, Devalues Assets
Bc of the interest component & exponential function of a debt based monetary system, there is never enough money to pay off the debt. And bc debts are always paid (either by lender or borrower), if they didn’t debase the...
By Brent Johnson
Social•Feb 18, 2026
US Stock Premium at Risk as Tech Capex Rises
Although global markets have narrowed the gap with the US in recent weeks, US equities still trade at a roughly 40% valuation premium to the rest of the world. That premium could shrink further if big tech companies lose their...
By Holger Zschaepitz