Chinese Nationalists Cite Trump as Proof of East’s Rise
China increasingly casts itself as a superpower poised to surpass America.Chinese nationalists say they have Mr. Trump to thank. America under his rule,they say, validates Xi’s worldview centered on “the rise of the East and decline of the West.”My latest https://t.co/Bpt4aeVB1D
US CPI Climbs to 3.8% in April, Inflation Persists
The U.S. Consumer Price Index jumped from 3.3%/yr in March to 3.8%/yr in April. As I've been saying, the U.S. inflation genie is not going to be put back in the bottle any time soon. https://t.co/jCBH3ue3IK
Trump's Weakened Stance Meets China's US‑controlled Maritime Chokepoints
The FT says Trump arrives in Beijing weakened after losing the trade war and the Iran war. Maybe, writes @BenPicton1 But China still depends on seaborne oil, LNG, & food moving through maritime chokepoints dominated by U.S. naval power My take: does...
April CPI Won’t Shift Fed, New Chair Faces Tough Odds
April CPI won't change minds at the Fed. But more of this will complicate the dovish case, which has already flipped away from arguing for cuts and towards arguing against toying with hikes. It's a tough inheritance for a new Fed...
Xi’s Leverage Forces US to Rethink Taiwan Policy
FT says Xi now holds most of the cards ahead of the Trump meeting Liberation Day tariffs flopped once China’s critical mineral chokehold started shutting U.S. factories Now the Iran war fiasco has weakened Washington further EXPECT A REVISION OF THE US POSITION...
Fed Must Stay Restrictive Until Extra 13% Inflation Vanishes
Monetary policy should be restrictive until the 13% additional inflation we've had since January 2020 above the 2% trendline is erased. There's no point in having a 2% inflation target if you're not going to adhere to it. The Fed...
Inflation Climbs to 3.8%, Energy Now Primary Driver
#Inflation finally takes a bite. Jumps to 3.8% as #energy replaces #tariffs as driver of higher prices. #realestate #CRE #Trump #Iran #StraitsofHormuz #gasoline #mortgage #interestrates #TheFed https://t.co/ygaDzZOIBU
Cautious Buyers Offset Global Oil Supply Shock
Astounding🤷♂️ 👉”US-led exports and China-led cautious buying patterns among importers have, in effect, been 💥shielding the world from the supply shock💥 👉“The actions of cautious buyers have therefore exceeded, by 4.1mn barrels a day, the 6.8mn net contraction of seaborne export supply...
Higher‑than‑expected Inflation Dampens Fed Cut Hopes, Stay Cautious
Inflation (CPI) just came in at 3.8%, higher than expected. Last month’s CPI was 3.3%. Higher inflation reduces the odds of Fed rate cuts, which is bad for risk assets like stocks and crypto. Markets seem to be overlooking the negative impact of...
April CPI Spikes to 3.8%, Fed Lagging Behind
US CPI Inflation Rate moved up to 3.8% in April, its highest level since May 2023. The Inflation Rate is now back above the Fed Funds Rate and CPI is likely headed above 4%. The Fed is once again behind...
More Hours, Lower Real Pay as Inflation Erodes Wages
Americans are trying to work more hours to keep up as gas and food prices rise. Even so, real average weekly earnings **Decreased** in April as inflation ate up all the wage gains and extra hours worked. Real weekly earnings for...
UK 30-Year Gilt Yield Hits 1998 High
The yield on the UK 30-year gilt is at its highest level since 1998 https://t.co/zXuKq5q17b
Iran War Spikes Inflation to Three‑year High
It's Stupid's Economy > It's the Economy, Stupid. Iran war pushed inflation to highest rate in nearly three years https://t.co/VnDzjVJ3Os
Core Services Inflation Spikes, Undermining Tariff‑only Narrative
The optimistic story on inflation has been that the recent firming has been tariff-led (which would show up in goods) and therefore won't be sustained as tariffs aren't going to ratchet higher year after year. The April CPI, in isolation, isn't...
Rising CPI Makes Rate Cuts Hard for New Fed Chair
Latest CPI report underscores how tough it will be for Warsh to deliver cuts once he takes over as Fed chair. Core CPI is up 0.4% in April, or 2.8% compared to the same time last year. This comes on...
Core CPI at 0.4% Could Yield 4.9% YoY
A Multipolar World - Got Hard Assets? CPI Core MoM: 0.4% vs 0.3% exp. If monthly CPI rises by 0.4% each month for the next 12 months and compounds, the year-over-year CPI inflation rate over 12 months would...
Russia Slashes 2026‑29 Growth Forecast, Holds Oil Price Steady
“Russia has cut its economic growth forecast for 2026 and the following three years but left unchanged the projected oil price despite the spike in global prices driven by the war in the Middle East, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak...
Fuel Oil Spikes 54%, Gasoline up 28% in Year
Price changes over last year (April CPI report) Fuel Oil: +54.3% Gasoline: +28.4% Electricity: +6.1% Transportation: +4.3% Apparel: +4.2% Overall CPI: +3.8% Food away from home: +3.6% Shelter: +3.3% Medical Care: +3.2% Gas Utilities: +3.0% Food at home: +2.9% New Cars: +0.2% Used Cars: -2.7%
Inflation Outpaces Wage Gains, Squeezing American Finances
JUST IN: Inflation is now eating up all wage gains for the first time in about three years. This is painful for Americans and a true financial squeeze. CPI Inflation in past year: 3.8% Wage gains: in past year: 3.6% https://t.co/dNa5VvS5DE
CPI Spikes to 3.8%, Dampening Rate‑cut Hopes
Inflation CPI just came at 3.8% higher then expected. Last month CPI was 3.3%. Inflation is running hot & this will lower the chance of rate cuts
Inflation Surges Above Expectations in Latest Report
Latest inflation report just dropped, and it came in hot, and slightly hotter than most folks expected. https://t.co/TTvmbXLQ8r
US Inflation Spikes to 3.8% in April, Driven by Gas
JUST IN: U.S. inflation jumped to 3.8% (y/y) in April--> the highest in three years. This is painful for Americans, especially moderate-income households. Inflation rose 0.6% in the month of April due to soaring gas prices that accounted for over 40%...
Trump’s Beijing Summit Likely to Address Iran Issue
“When President Trump arrives in Beijing this week for a summit with Xi Jinping, the Iran file will likely be on the agenda—whether or not either leader wants it there.” @Lingling_Wei https://t.co/Ki2rwF4UjY https://t.co/Ki2rwF4UjY
China's Mercantilist Squeeze Threatens Developing Economies
Important NEW paper @PIIE China's mercantilist squeeze on developing economies by @arvindsubraman @shoumitro_c Who really is harmed by China Shock 2.0
Markets Brace for Hotter US Inflation, Stocks Fall
🚨 US Inflation Report on Tap - Markets are bracing for a hotter inflation print: ⬇️ Stocks ⬇️ Gold ⬆️ USD ⬆️ Yields Here’s what everyone is watching 👇 CPI - MoM 0.6% forecast, 0.9% prior CPI - YoY 3.7% forecast, 3.3% prior CPI Core MoM -...
Dollar Weakens, Yields Rise: Loose Policy Warning
Dollar down, yields up. In normal times these are positively correlated. When they diverge and the currency weakens while bonds sell off, it's telling you policy is too loose. Japan has been ground zero for this dynamic. Watch closely to see...
Xi Warns Trump: Sanctions Will Burn Like Hot Stove
In a prelude to the Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing on the 14-15, Chairman Xi has introduced Trump to the Chinese hot stove. When the US takes a threatening and belligerent action with sanctions and tariffs, it will touch a hot stove...
Chinese Cars Surge Abroad as Foreign Share in China Halves
"The market share of foreign auto firms in China has almost halved in five years, to around 30% in 2025. Moreover, in 2023 China passed Japan to become the world’s largest exporter of cars. In 2025 over 8 million of...
Liquidity Flood, Not War, Drives Recent Inflation Surge
Global money supply surged by $17T in the last 2 years. War is not the only driver of inflation. Policymakers have been pouring liquidity into the system the entire time. https://t.co/EMI08NkIDG https://t.co/kavJQEnfrx
Low‑Inflation Era Ends; Global Debt Pressures Rise
For the decade before COVID, we were all convinced inflation would always be low and so interest rates would always be low too. That's over. I talked about the global debt overhang and how the UK isn't an outlier in...
Broken Economic Structure Fuels Cost Crisis and Stagnation
The cost of living crisis and our low growth are two symptoms of the same problem: an economic structure that hasn’t been working for a long time. We need to take on the root causes of those costs. https://t.co/WySWCVS5a9
Europe’s Center Crumbles; UK Embraces Free‑Rising Yields
The UK isn't an outlier. The implosion of the political center is happening across Europe. The fact that fiscal space is exhausted is also true for many countries. What the UK gets right is to let yields rise freely. Only...
Ceasefire Uncertainty Dampens Risk, Lifts Dollar, Fuels Oil
Ceasefire is on "Life Support": Saps Risk Appetites, Buoys the Greenback: The uncertainty about the US-Iran fragile ceasefire, which President Trump has said is on “life support” is weighing on risk-taking appetites today. Brent and WTI are up over $3…...
Geopolitical Turmoil and Political Instability Drive Global Yield Surge
The rise in long-term gov't bond yields isn't about any one thing. There's unstable global geopolitics, with Iran the latest symptom. There's the collapse in politics as usual, with the UK in focus. All this pushes up 10y10y forward yields...
Dialogue with OPEC Boosts Global Energy Security Amid Conflict
Productive meeting with @OPECSecretariat Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais in Vienna We discussed the latest developments in global energy markets amid the war in the Middle East and the importance of dialogue and exchanges in support of global energy security https://t.co/gSaCl0O8VS
Separate Fiscal and Monetary Policies Fuel Economic Stagnation
The current government doesn’t have a plan because they treat monetary and fiscal policy as two separates. 🇿🇦 Without treating fiscal and monetary policies as a single, integrated toolkit that achieves the state's economic goals, then stagnation will persist.
Iran Expands Strait of Hormuz Claim to 200 Km Radius
MAP OF THE DAY: Iran is claiming a much wider geographical footprint for the Strait of Hormuz than before, according to state media. Tehran says the SoH area goes from the port of Jask in the Gulf of Oman to...
USD Strength Amid Fragile Ceasefire Drags Markets Lower
$USD is bid. Fragility of ceasefire weighs on sentiment. Drags equities and bonds lower. PBOC set $USD fix at new multiyear low. Bessent and Japanese officials talk fx but $JPY falls to new 5-day low. US CPI on...
South Africa Unemployment Spikes to 32.7%, 345k Jobs Lost
South Africa's official unemployment rate rises to 32.7% in Q1. A total of 345 000 jobs were lost in the first three months of 2026.
Labour Calls for Fiscal Rules, Lower Borrowing, Growth‑Driven Inflation Fight
From the many conversations I've had with my Labour colleagues in Parliament, there is a consensus about the importance of setting out clear fiscal rules and getting the cost of borrowing down. The best way to address the cost of...
Most “Inflation Hedges” Fail Against Core Cost Spikes
Investors worry about #Inflation .. The industry knows it, and sells them a solution. The problem? Most assets sold as inflation hedges only protect against about 9% of your cost of living. New research finds that equities, gold, property funds and commodities...
Hungary Aims to Meet Euro Criteria by 2030
Hungary to meet euro criteria by 2030, new finance minister says https://t.co/AN0YZs31Z6 via @ZoltanSimonBbg https://t.co/4UELJl5uXJ
UK Political Uncertainty Drives Gilts Yield to 5.10%
Uncertain British politics = another step up in UK government bond yields. (This morning's selloff is sizeable, pushing the 10-year yield to 5.10%.) #economy #Markets #Gilts #UKEconomy #bonds #uk
U.S. Abandons Efforts to Reform China, Plans Trade Cuts
.@bobdavis187: “The United States has given up trying to change China’s economy through outside pressure or inducements. Instead, the U.S. accepts the state-dominated Chinese system as it is, and will…look to cut trade deals within the new framework.” https://t.co/D50COlAlzy
Xi’s Power Lies in Rare Earth Monopoly
.@gideonrachman in FT op-ed: “It is Xi Jinping who ‘has the cards’—to use a phrase that Trump likes. The Chinese president’s ace is his country’s near monopoly over the production of rare earths and critical minerals.” https://t.co/kdHuHoSwcP
Xi-Trump Summit May Yield Farm Deal, Soybean Demand Low
JUST IN: The Xi-Trump summit could lead to a farm deal, but China has limited soybean appetite.
UK Bond Yields Breakout Finally Arrives After Three Months
Macro Tourist Topic Of The Day = "UK Bond Yields" We've only been signaling this breakout for the last 3 months Go back to bed
U.S. Debt Dominates Global Markets Thanks to Dollar Reserve
The global debt story is more concentrated than people think. The U.S. alone holds around $35.8 trillion in debt - more than double China and larger than the next several major economies combined. That says something important: Not all debt is viewed equally. Reserve...
UK Faces Finance Crisis: Yields Spike, Pound Falls
The "Liz Truss moment" of 2022 has turned into the UK's political reality, with 30-year yields soaring to their highest levels since 1998 and the pound weakening. "No matter who is in power, no matter their political leaning, there does...
Govt Warns Against Gold, Foreign Travel Amid Dollar Pressure
Why is the government suddenly telling people to avoid gold and foreign trips? [ don’t buy gold, work from home, foreign travel, US dollar, India import, oil, gold price, oil price, PM Modi, Modi announcement ] #dollar #rupee #gold #oil #travel