Social•Feb 19, 2026
Three Multinationals Generate Half of Ireland's 2024 Tax Revenue
Ireland’s corporation tax receipts have become increasingly concentrated with just three multinational companies accounting for almost half of all of the revenue stream in 2024, watchdog warns https://t.co/of9w2dPPpV via @livfletcher_ https://t.co/iNNIyP8iwQ
By Zöe Schneeweiss
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Fuel Subsidy Masks Real Service Cost Surge
1.6% is a statistical illusion for the urban middle class While headline inflation is stable, the "unprotected" service sector is aggressive: Personal Care & Misc. → 6.6% Education → 3.2% Cause→Effect: Subsidized fuel (-0.7%) masks the reality of rising service labor costs. If you...
By David Chuah
Social•Feb 19, 2026
India's 6.5% Growth Beats China, Fastest Major Economy
As the World Bank notes, India is the fastest-growing major economy. India's growth rate of 6.5% is even outpacing China's. https://t.co/3S7a6Z6LbT
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Nikkei Rises; Buy Nikkei ETF Amid FX Risks
Nikkei +0.71%; real estate, banks, textiles led; VIX-Nikkei 27.89. Leaders: Yokohama Rubber, Omron. Risks: FX (USD/JPY 155.11), commodity shocks. Trade: buy Nikkei ETF. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
By Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA
Social•Feb 19, 2026
India Drives South Asia's 6‑7% Growth; Rest Lags
According to the World Bank, South Asia growth stays near 6-7%. Strip out India, and the region slows sharply. India is the growth story. https://t.co/Q8e7g9b1j3
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 19, 2026
China Cuts US Treasury Holdings to Crisis Low
🚨Chinese officials had urged banks to limit purchases of US government bonds, and instructed those with high exposure to SELL their positions. Data shows China’s holdings of US Treasuries fell to $682.6 billion, the lowest since the Financial Crisis.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-the-us-dollar-gradually-losing-its-safe-haven-status
By Global Markets Investor (newsletter author)
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Indonesia Leads Malaysia in Palm Oil and Economic Growth
What do Indonesia and Malaysia have in common? They are the two biggest palm oil exporters in the world. Since 2008, Indonesia’s economy has outperformed Malaysia’s. https://t.co/mTUct95oZv
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Rising Capex May Curb Buybacks, Pressure Valuations
With credit spreads low and profit margins seemingly on the rise, valuations seem OK at current levels. These two variables are important drivers for the equity risk premium, which is currently at 4.0% according to my version of the DCF...
By Jurrien Timmer
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Euphoria Unwinds, Quality Assets Outshine Speculation
I have mentioned this chart a few times in the past, but it does really go to show just how extreme things got the last few years. The chart is SPX/(UNRATE^2)*USIRYY*USINTR Unravelling things after extreme euphoria is never an easy process. As things...
By Benjamin Cowen
Social•Feb 19, 2026
North Korea's Inflation Soars to 74.6%, World’s Third Highest
#NKWatch🇰🇵: Today, I measure North Korea’s inflation at 74.6%/yr — that’s the THIRD HIGHEST IN THE WORLD. Kim’s rockets fly, but inflation is what’s truly SKYROCKETING. https://t.co/EbYJ0oBnAW
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Korea's Index Slides Below Historical Average After 150% Surge
It’s wild how Korea’s stock index is trading below its historical average following a nearly 150% price rally https://t.co/TyCTVuO5pW
By David Ingles
Social•Feb 19, 2026
IMF: China's Export Growth Harms Its Trading Partners
The latest IMF analysis of China (The staff report/ Article IV) highlights that China's export driven growth has come at the expense of its trading partners. That is welcome, and very necessary message 1/many https://t.co/RTYAzRkFAv
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 19, 2026
TLT Call Skew at 90th Percentile, Expect Shakeout
Yep- Skew on TLT (calls expensive to outs) like 1 month out is in the 90th%tile. Gonna get shaken out before yields go lower. Let’s talk about this tomorrow on @ForwardGuidance
By Tyler Neville
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Blue Owl Stops Redemptions, Highlighting Exit Liquidity Risk
BLUE OWL PERMANENTLY HALTS REDEMPTIONS AT PRIVATE CREDIT FUND AIMED AT RETAIL INVESTORS — FT Being long scarcity might lead to illiquidity, but being long illiquidity doesn’t necessarily mean you’re long scarcity You’re long exit liquidity
By Jeff Park
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Korean Reforms Spark Value Ups, Awaiting IBKR Access
I initially thought the Korean reforms would be ineffective. But on the ground, I’m seeing many companies come up with highly positive value up plans. And valuations remain a fraction of those in Japan. Once IBKR opens access, the focus...
By Michael Fritzell
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Fed Minutes Omit 2% Inflation Target Date, Signaling Uncertainty
One more note on the Fed minutes: Sometimes it's interesting what they don't say. Last year at every meeting until December, the staff forecast called for inflation to return to 2% by 2027. In December, the forecast pushed this back to...
By Nick Timiraos
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Long‑duration Assets Like Bitcoin, Growth Stocks Lose Favor
Bitcoin's drop has coincided with a decline in the Russell 1000's Pure Growth P/E. What do they have in common? Both are long-duration, and are being shunned during the underlying rotation into shorter-duration (cyclical) securities (think value, dividend payers, Energy...
By Michael Kantro
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Defensives Hit Dot‑Com Lows, Poised for Rally
Chart of the Week - Defensives With tech in trouble (+a number of macro risks lurking on the horizon), defensives are starting to look interesting… Defensives (i.e. an equal-weighted basket of: Utilities, Healthcare, Consumer Staples) are turning up vs the S&P500 —after...
By Callum Thomas
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Packed 24‑Hour Macro Calendar: Japan, US, China Data
The global macro docket for the next 24 hours of trade pics up. Japan has machinery orders, mfg activity survey, a 1-year and 20-year JGB auction, Jan CPI. Walmart and Alibaba report earnings. US and Canada trade balance. PBOC rate setting. Start...
By John Kicklighter
Social•Feb 18, 2026
US Vaccine Policy Shift Boosts MRNA Stock Appeal
Macro: US vaccine-policy swing heightens regulatory risk; FDA will review Moderna’s flu shot. Key: public dispute, amended filing; decision by Aug 5. Risk: political oversight. Trade: Buy MRNA. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
By Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Income Gaps Fuel Migration Across CARICOM Nations
Stark differences in income drive migration within CARICOM (and these are official data). More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/DaCnHTI3Wj
By Adam Tooze
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Tariffs Inflate Prices and Act Like Hidden Corporate Tax
A) Many studies have examined whether tariffs have been passed through to consumer prices, and they've found significant retail price increases B) Tariff burdens absorbed by US companies are an inefficient corporate tax, paid by Americans via lower wages or share...
By Scott Lincicome
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Debt-Based Money Ensures Perpetual Debt, Devalues Assets
Bc of the interest component & exponential function of a debt based monetary system, there is never enough money to pay off the debt. And bc debts are always paid (either by lender or borrower), if they didn’t debase the...
By Brent Johnson
Social•Feb 18, 2026
US Stock Premium at Risk as Tech Capex Rises
Although global markets have narrowed the gap with the US in recent weeks, US equities still trade at a roughly 40% valuation premium to the rest of the world. That premium could shrink further if big tech companies lose their...
By Holger Zschaepitz
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Global Growth Slows, Rates Sticky; Shorten Treasury Duration
Macro: global growth slows; rates remain sticky. Key factors: US CPI, China demand, energy. Risks: policy missteps, inflation shocks. Trade: shorten duration in US Treasuries. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
By Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Dalio Predicts US Will Print Money, Devalue Currency
Ray Dalio, founder of the world's LARGEST hedge fund, on the national debt: "When countries essentially go broke, what they do is... print money, devalue the currency, and create an artificially low interest rate...that is the way the [US] will do...
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Lagarde’s Early Exit Fuels Concerns over ECB Politicization
The ECB should be apolitical. But now President Lagarde says she’s leaving early. According to people “familiar with her thinking,” this is so Macron can pick her successor before the French Presidential election in April 2027. Not very apolitical at...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Hawks Push Back, Hint at Two‑Sided Policy Language
FOMC minutes suggest that the hawks pushed back. "Several would support two-sided language" about policy direction and "several" noted that if inflation remains high, rate hikes might be necessary.
By Kathy Jones
Social•Feb 18, 2026
USD/CAD Nears Yearly High, Breakout Risk Rises
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Advances Toward Yearly Open – Breakout Risk Builds https://t.co/LswuuI4iVW $USDCAD Weekly Chart https://t.co/AfSOwTDtR3
By Michael Boutros
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Data Centers Drive Growth as Fed Shows Internal Split
Today’s burst of economic data showed an economy still powered by the boom in data centers with some broader increases in vehicle orders (Dec) and production (Jan). Housing starts popped in December and were revised higher for November. Good...
By Diane Swonk
Social•Feb 18, 2026
ETF Inflows Double Historic Pace in First Six Weeks
Here's ETF flows for the first six weeks of the year historically. This year is off to the best start almost by double. One reason is growing depth of cash vacuum cleaners. VOO, SPYM hoovering as always but there's already...
By Eric Balchunas
Social•Feb 18, 2026
FOMC Minutes Reveal Split Views: Cut, Hold, or Hike
Key paragraph of the FOMC minutes from January. (I am honestly a bit confused by the 'minutes math.') The main takeaway is that there is considerable disagreement. Cut, hold, and (even possibly) hike all got a nod. https://t.co/eV9ldjldl1 https://t.co/K53g1yqKJ8
By Claudia Sahm
Social•Feb 18, 2026
FOMC Minutes Show Market‑Aligned Outlook, Fragile Jobs, Slowing Inflation
Few FOMC minutes takeaways: 1) Cmte basically in line with markets on major economic variables 2) Labor markets no longer outright weakening but remain fragile 3) Inflation decelerating as tariff passthru done, housing has downside (a misread on bad CPI method in Oct?) 1/...
By Guy LeBas
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Tariffs Fail: US Down to Five Aluminum Smelters
"U.S. import tariffs haven't been enough to stop the United States losing another aluminium smelter, leaving the country with just five primary metal production plants." 😲 https://t.co/T5U4nxglb0 https://t.co/EOQY3OwzE6
By Scott Lincicome
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Fed Minutes Reveal Larger Faction Demanding Higher Cut Threshold
Minutes from the Fed's Jan. 27-28 meeting laid bare a lingering divide over where to set the bar for further rate cuts. In Fed speak, "some" is larger than "several" which means the group of "some" officials that includes those with...
By Nick Timiraos
Social•Feb 18, 2026
World Order Collapses: Entering Stage 6 of Global Disorder
It’s official: The current world order has broken down. In my parlance, we are in the Stage 6 part of the Big Cycle in which there is great disorder arising from being in a period in which there are no rules,...
By Ray Dalio
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Mania Depression: Elites Stagnate, Borrowers Slip Further
FWIW - The sentiment data suggests its not a "boomcession" we're experiencing but a "maniapression." Those at the top can't put enough into the markets, while those at the bottom fall further and further behind on their loans.
By Peter Atwater
Social•Feb 18, 2026
NYC Deficit Sparks Mayor's Risky Corporate and Property Tax Plan
New York City faces a fiscal crisis –– a $5.4B budget deficit. Mayor Mamdani’s plan: tax the most profitable corporations or INCREASE PROPERTY TAXES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN DECADES. MAMDANI’S PLAN = A PLAN TO KILL NEW YORK’S ECONOMY. https://t.co/HKJXzJh4Cu
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Putin Sees Prolonged War as Leverage, Feels Victorious
“President Vladimir V. Putin believes he is winning, military and intelligence officials from several Western countries said in recent days. And he is convinced that even if it takes 18 months to two years to complete his hold on the...
By Rob Lee
Social•Feb 18, 2026
US Investors Turn Bearish on France as Macron Exits
US investors are gloomy on France as Macron era approaches its end https://t.co/a4q0NEuH3I via @WHorobin https://t.co/vhSuc9Ovr6
By Zöe Schneeweiss
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Mega‑Cap Weakness Could Drag Entire S&P Down
The reason this is important (even though it’s only a few stocks) is that the Mag 7 is so big that if they should fall they could well take the S&P 500 (cap-weighted) index with it. History shows (below) that...
By Jurrien Timmer
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Multiple Crises, Stalled Talks, White House Impatience Signal Change
two conflicts. two stalled negotiations. one impatient white house. the next few weeks could look very different from today. @gzeromedia
By Ian Bremmer
Social•Feb 18, 2026
China’s Outward FDI Surpasses Inward, Gap Widens
Since the 2010s and BRI, Chinese FDI has matched or exceeded inward FDI, but now a really big gap is opening up. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/DcgBB3hzww
By Adam Tooze
Social•Feb 18, 2026
S&P Adds $500B, Gold Climbs; PCE Inflation Watch
WHAT A DAY, the S&P 500 has gained around $500 BILLION in market cap, up 0.8%. The index is now up 0.3% YTD 📈 Gold is also trading higher, back above $5,000/oz, as global tensions start to escalate 😳 Mark your calendars...
By Peter Tuchman (Einstein of Wall Street)
Social•Feb 18, 2026
History’s Empire Cycle Reveals Today’s Global Power Shift
Empires rise. Empires peak. Empires fall. Medieval thinkers understood the structural forces behind power, decline, and transition. Those same cycles are shaping the world today. Understand the pattern. Know what comes next. Read more at davidmurrin.co.uk #Geopolitics #EmpireCycles #History #Strategy #GlobalPower
By David Murrin
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Geopolitical Tension Drives Gold Surge—Position Now
Gold is on the move🔥 As tensions in the Middle East rise and Iran escalates, markets are reacting and gold is back in focus When uncertainty rises, gold shines ✨ Big moves could be ahead. The question is… are you positioned? Trade Gold with...
By Kathy Lien
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Gold Rallies 13% as Tech Stocks Stumble
While the Magnificent Seven tech stocks have SUFFERED in 2026, GOLD IS UP over 13%. It's time to turn away from SILLY VALLEY. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/PZTIJFhPOp
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Sector Rotation Timing Yields Asset‑rich Returns
The Great Rotation: From Growth to Asset Rich Value My job is timing sector rotation & picking the best stocks long/short within it. That & sizing up macro event risk & market structure support. That's how I could time the...
By Samantha LaDuc
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Markets Mirror Trump’s Shifting Policy Narratives
You just have to respect markets and the games they play Trump first term: Public is all about long Energy, short Solar.... Solar stocks go on an epic run Trump 2nd term: Tariffs going to crush International economies.... International stocks just thrashing...
By Joe Kunkle
Social•Feb 18, 2026
De-Dollarization Undermines US Military Financing Power
De-Dollarization Threatens US Military Power The dollar’s role in global trade is shrinking. As it loses value, I see us losing influence and even military strength, because our military depends on financing powered by the dollar. The markets are already showing...
By Peter Schiff