Oil Inventories Plummet, Looming Shortage Will Trigger Price Spike
The world is burning through oil inventories at the fastest pace on record. Since the US-Israeli war on Iran began, stockpiles have fallen by 4.8 million barrels per day, exceeding the peak COVID drawdown. Once inventories run dry, we will switch from an oil deficit to an oil shortage. Then, prices will SPIKE, AGAIN.
Markets Surge Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Key Economic Data
Please find below the links to my weekly look at the global economy and markets. It's a busy week ahead: As equity markets scale record heights and the Strait of Hormuz blockades continue amid geopolitical instability and supply-side disruptions, look also this...
Yen Surge Could Trigger Oil Price Crash
Japan's Yen Surge: The Oil Shock Threat Explained. We explore the real risk of a 'tail event' from Japan, focusing on a potential Yen surge and its devastating impact on oil prices. Discover the economic domino effect. TailEvent #YenSurge #JapanEconomy...
Hormuz Crisis Blocks Iraq's Regasification, Favors Iran, Hurts US
It is unfortunate that Iraq cannot get the regasification unit because of the Hormuz Crisis (One of the benefits for Iran, loss to the US)
Pakistan, Iran Negotiate Limited Qatari LNG Transit Through Hormuz
Bilateral Hormuz dealmaking continues parallel to any fuller peace deal negotiations: “Pakistan held talks with Iran to allow a limited number of Qatari liquefied natural gas cargoes to transit the Strait of Hormuz, as Qatar sent through its first shipment...
Iran Blockade Lowers Oil Prices, Confirming Original Prediction
When I first started pushing for an Iran blockade, my main point was that the big rise in oil prices already priced the incremental disruption to supply, so the pros outweighed the cons. That's been borne out. Oil prices are...
Italy's Cash Deficit Stays Double Accruals, Exposing Eurozone Fiscal Flaws
Italy is getting lots of accolades for bringing its accruals deficit (red) back to 3%, but the cash deficit - which is what matters because it drives debt issuance - remains at 6% (black). Fiscal policy in the Euro zone...
China Shifts From Low‑Value Manufacturing to High‑Tech Dominance
China is increasingly dominating high-tech industries, while the low-value manufacturing sectors that powered the country’s rise are becoming less important economic drivers https://t.co/z2ny9xep3S via @WSJ
Trump‑Xi Energy Deal Unlikely: China Won’t Depend on US
Unlike their 2020 phase one agreement, I am skeptical Chinese energy purchases will be a *meaningful* deliverable from Trump-Xi 2.0 for three reasons - Why would China increase its vulnerabilities, becoming dependent on a rival for energy - Trump can't commit to...
Trade Resilience Demands Coordination, Not Isolated Restrictions
1/2 Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala: "In an interconnected trading system, resilience cannot be secured through national measures alone. The alternative to co-ordinated adjustment is a cycle of restrictions that leaves all countries worse off." https://t.co/aoaPrtM3qQ
China Vows to Curb Local Debt, Boost Growth
1/7 Bloomberg: "China pledged to step up efforts to defuse local government debt risk while supporting growth, as the State Council called for stronger policy execution in a challenging global environment." https://t.co/d7kk0t3Ahy
Historic Buffett Indicator Spike Predicts S&P Downturn
Hey @grok The "Buffett Indicator" is currently sitting at 229% of GDP—the highest level in history. While everyone is talking about the "New AI Era," Berkshire is sitting on nearly $400 billion in cash. Show me the last 3 times this...
US, Chile Launch Critical Minerals Talks for Strategic Supply
US and Chile begin critical minerals talks covering copper, lithium, rare earths and project financing. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/05/us-chile-critical-minerals-talks-signal.html
GCC Growth Siphons Market, Stalling Indian IT Stocks
Absolutely-not sure why Indian listed IT sector investors could not see this happening so clearly. We talked about this in our recent Dhan Ki baat episode. GCC growth came out of same potential market so negatively hurt IT companies...
Israel Targets Iran Energy, Threatening $150 Oil Spike
🚨 IRAN CONFLICT EXPLODES Israel is now pushing to strike all of Iran’s energy infrastructure within the next 24 hours. Multiple Arab countries are backing the move. According to Israel, the US-Iran peace deal is dead. ...
Putin Hints War's End, Boosting Market Optimism
MASSIVE: 🇷🇺 President Putin says he believes the war with Ukraine could be coming to an end. This would be extremely positive for the markets. Reduced geopolitical tensions could bring major confidence and liquidity back into crypto and stocks. https://t.co/AF021cyK1W
Iraq Ranks 31st Most Miserable Amid Soaring Unemployment
In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index @FortuneMagazine, Iraq ranks as the 31ST MOST MISERABLE country in the world. This is thanks to their SKY-HIGH unemployment rate at 15.5% and NEGATIVE real GDP per capita growth of -1.2%. IRAQ = HIGHLY DYSFUNCTIONAL. https://t.co/0XN1HithQH
China Urges Germany to Curb EU Protectionist Drift
China calls on Germany to play “a constructive role” in urging the EU not to stray further toward protectionism https://t.co/exhFDSFfKb https://t.co/gbCkFEP9tx
Current Oil Price Low, but Inventory Deficit Just Arrived
Why do so many think today's oil price is too low? $106 WTI is 88% of the Ukraine-war peak, yet comparative inventory just moved into deficit In 2022, the C.I. deficit was 150x larger when oil was $120 Just because people think prices...
India’s GDP per Capita Outpaces Peers, Bolstering Modi
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: In India, real GDP per capita has surged WELL ABOVE its emerging market peers. Under PM Modi, rising living standards and strong economic growth have pushed India AHEAD. STRONG ECONOMY = PUTS WIND IN MODI’S SAILS. https://t.co/UdkHTnINmZ
Falling Imports Reflect Export Collapse, Not Demand Destruction
falling imports isn't demand destruction, guys imports *have* to fall because exports have collapsed, going back to the discussion about the end of the "air pocket" then you draw down stocks, then prices rise, and then you destroy demand
Tokyo Faces Only Panic Hike or Yen Collapse
🎯 “the 160 line is going to break, and the next time it breaks, Tokyo’s response options collapse to two: a panic BoJ hike that detonates the bond market, or sit back and watch the yen go to 165, then 170....
US Oil Reserves Near Depletion by July If Hormuz Closed
My take on the upcoming oil inventory shortages: "If the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, the US will come close to depleting its inventories of oil by the end of July. When inventories run out, we will face a real...
Bulls Target Asian AI Chip Semis Amid Geopolitical Risks
Macro: Bulls shift to Asia. Drivers: AI-hardware surge, Korea/Taiwan semis; vols rising. Risks: geopolitics, abrupt consolidation. Trade: buy long-call structures on Korea/Taiwan semiconductors. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Good Jobs Data Masks Stagflation Risk, Not Economic Doom
A “good” jobs report = “all clear.” The SP reaches a new high. Things are not as bad as a year ago. Tariffs not so bad The Iran war may not be so bad Fed can pass on a rate cut Stagflation is...
Iran's Inflation Hits 122%, World's Third Highest
Today, I measure Iran's inflation at a punishing 122%/yr. That is the WORLD'S 3RD HIGHEST. Only two countries have higher inflation rates: Venezuela (1st) and North Korea (2nd). I REMAIN THE ONLY ACCURATE SOURCE FOR INFLATION MEASUREMENTS IN IRAN, VENEZUELA, AND NORTH...
Trump's Potential Navy Withdrawal Threatens Global Supply Chains
Is Trump going to have the Navy get out of the Strait? Or not? The longer this drags on, the harder on economies. Even the US. Will there be supply shortages meeting demand destructions?
Supply Shock, Fed Policy Spark Stagflation and AI Bubble Burst
JUST IN: The Persian Gulf Supply Shock meets The Warsh Fed, leading to Stagflation and The Coming AI Bubble Bust.
China's Central Bank Adds Gold for 18th Month
After adding 5 tons of gold to its war chest in March, the People’s Bank of China purchased another 8.1 tons in April. This marks the 18th consecutive month that China has increased its gold reserves. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/jPZkT7Ljpc
AI Fuels US Inflation: Electronics, SaaS, Power Strain
Macro: AI lifts US inflation via electronics, software price rises and data‑center power. Key: memory/battery tightness, SaaS hikes, grid strain. Risk: persistent core PCE. Trade: OW utilities.— Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Iran Urges Citizens to Curb Fuel Amid US Blockade
JUST IN: Iranian officials urged people to cut electricity, gas, and fuel use as US blockade measures disrupt shipments, with President Masoud Pezeshkian warning of potential restrictions and Vice President Saghab Esfahani calling for small daily gasoline reductions.
Brazil Sets Record Soy Exports to China Amid Chinese Shortfall
🇨🇳China's soybean imports fell short of expectations again last month, but an armada of Brazilian soybeans is charging across the Atlantic. 🇧🇷Brazil exported more soybeans in April than in any month on record, with most of them destined for China. https://t.co/rLkRDdvjst
Analysts Predict Gas Prices, Miss Strait of Hormuz Reality
Wall Street analysts keep giving us gas price predictions for Memorial Day and end-of-year. They seem incapable of escaping the news cycle which is purposely avoiding the real truths on what's actually happening in the Strait of Hormuz. A thread....
China Gains Strategic Edge as US Stumbles in Iran War
China is a winner from the Iran War, says @DanielYergin Beijing stayed on the sidelines & preserved optionality It watched Washington absorb the costs & exhaust munitions & credibility It has reserves while everyone else panicked. #IranWar #Geopolitics #China #Energy #OilMarkets #GlobalPower
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Remains Unsafe, Normalcy Delayed
Economist Jeff Currie on reopening of the Strait of Hormuz: “If I’m the crew guy, I’m not getting on that boat. If I’m the insurance guy in London, I’m not underwriting one of these ships going through there either.” STRAIT TRAFFIC WILL...
Reserve Currency Shift Drops DJIA 45% Amid 10× Debt Rise
Agree, on both the impact of going broke in the reserve currency & "denominator blindness": Since the March 1972 date of that article, DJIA (which benefits from survivorship bias) is down 45% in terms of the prior world reserve currency (gold,...
Employment Shifts Are Natural Amid China, AI Shocks
When worrying about China shocks and AI shocks it is worth remembering that shifts in the structure of employment are inherent to the process of modern economic growth. Featured in today`s Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/ZVFw6lleGb
China Urges France to Push EU for Open Markets
China says it hopes France will play an active role in encouraging the EU to keep its markets open https://t.co/FZXFix0KRq https://t.co/K0oLTDpdnR
Oil Inventories Plummet, Raising Spike and Shortage Risks
Bloomberg: “The world has burned through oilinventories at a record speed as the Iran war throttles flows from the Persian Gulf… The rapidly shrinking stockpiles mean that the risk of even more extreme price spikes and shortages is getting ever-closer, leaving governments...
Trump Must Renounce Taiwan Support to Pressure Iran
My good friend Chris Wood on Trump’s planned visit to China on May 14: "If Donald Trump wants Beijing to put real pressure on Iran, he may need to agree to make a statement on Taiwan that China has long sought....
Trade Integration Cuts War Risk, De‑risking Limits Peace Gains
"Why ‘de-risking’ may not deliver a large peace dividend" https://t.co/maK8q2CpW8 "Our estimates show that greater trade integration lowers the probability that a dispute escalates to the highest levels of hostility, which involve use of military force and high-casualty wars." https://t.co/NyNiSm6CC6
UK Yields Exceed Italy, Not a Weakness, ECB Cap Effect
The UK's long-term gov't bond yields (lhs) are now far above those of Italy (rhs). This doesn't mean the UK is in worse shape. It's just a reflection of past ECB actions to aggressively cap Italian yields. I talked about...
Healthcare Adds 1.8 M Jobs; Other Sectors Lose 128 K
Insane stat: Healthcare and Social Assistance have added nearly 1.8 million private-sector jobs in the US since the end of 2023 while all of other industries combined have lost 127,800 jobs. https://t.co/LpZ31hL2fD
K‑Shaped Economy Goes Far Beyond Wealth and Spending
FWIW - What people think the K-Shaped Economy is is just the tip of what the K-Shaped Economy is all about. Wealth, incomes, and spending just scratch the surface.
China's April Crude Imports Plunge Below 2019 Levels
Big drop in crude import volumes out of China in April Imports dipped below 2019 levels Clearly helped stabilize the global market (gas imports also down) https://t.co/XJmsiZkLkp
Rising Chip Prices Boost Chinese Export Volume Growth
Estimating Chinese export and import volumes is challenging now, as rising chip prices are pushing up export and import prices -- if March prices carried over, April export volumes were around 15% ... and export volume growth is accelerating at the...
China’s Chip Imports Surge to $50B, Oil Stalls
If you want to sell to China, it sure helps to make chips -- at least right now. April chips imports topped USD 50b Note the lack of any bounce in oil imports in dollars terms as well 1/ https://t.co/sc6I5sL5uw
China's Vehicle Exports Surge 50% to 12 Million
50% y/y growth in vehicle export volumes pushed China's April vehicle exports to an annualized pace of 11.2 million. Full year exports could reach 12m, passenger car exports are on track to to 10m -- 1/2 https://t.co/7rRg8aSumT
China's April Exports Rise; Import Growth Slows
China's April export shipments rose 14.1% while its imports increased 25.3% in April, below the 27.8% in March. https://t.co/NOYBqEfdgZ
New Canadian Sovereign Wealth Fund Faces Sharp Critique
Detailed and interesting critique of the new Canadian sovereign wealth fund, by @Simon_Nixon - recommend a close read #cdnpoli https://t.co/RpayH7An8Q