USD Softens Pre‑jobs Report as Markets Ignore Europe Woes
$USD has a softer profile today, ahead of the jobs report. The mkt appears to have largely shrugged off the sharp defeat of Labour in UK local elections and an unexpected decline in German industrial output. Tensions running high in the Middle East. See https://t.co/temlnNN4PY https://t.co/Jzi58Ifk4B
BoJ JGB Purchases Neutralize FX Intervention, Yen Slides
The Yen is already falling again. Markets know Japan's official FX intervention can't work as long as the BoJ is buying JGBs to cap yields. That JGB buying puts depreciation pressure on the Yen, so intervention just gives markets a...
Current Labor Market, Mortgage Rates, and Housing Demand Overview
It's #jobs Friday. In today's podcast, we preview the current labor market, mortgage rates, and inflation. We also discuss the recent #housing demand data. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Turkey's Self‑imposed Dollar Peg Drains FX Reserves
Across all EMs, Turkey has seen by far the biggest drop in official FX reserves. That's an entirely self-inflicted wound and reflects the decision to keep the Lira pegged to the Dollar through a shock where it should obviously have...
Wall Street Dubs Hormuz Closure “NACHO”
According to CNBC, Wall Street has a new acronym: NACHO, or “Not A Chance Hormuz Opens.” #economy #markets @cnbc
Iran's Internet Blackout Cripples Economy, Residents Report
This is absolutely what is missing from most analyses of the Iran situation. Here’s some information from what people inside Iran are actually experiencing notable is the incredible economic toll just the Internet blackout is taking on Iran’s economy. TLDR:...
Oil Prices May Drop, Debt Burden Continues Rising
At some point, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and oil prices will fall back to pre-war levels. But the latest rise in long-term yields won't get reversed. Every shock that happens permanently ratchets up global fiscal stress. A one-way...
US Confirms Iranian Shadow Fleet Tanker Detained Under Sanctions
Note the oil tanker Iranian media just said Tehran detained is under US sanctions and belongs to the Iranian own dark fleet. "The Ocean Koi has operated as part of the Iranian shadow fleet since at least 2020," according to...
Germany's Industrial Output Slides, Growth Pledge in Doubt
Good Morning from Germany, where industrial production unexpectedly fell for a second straight month, down 0.7% in March, led by weakness in energy and machinery. Despite a small uptick in Q1 GDP, the data point to ongoing stagnation and raise...
Small Chinese Banks Squeezed by Real‑estate Exposure, Limiting Credit
1/2 Good Caixin article on the acute problems faced by Chinese banks as they are forced to pile into real estate assets that backed defaulted property loans: "The problem is most acute for smaller lenders", draining their capacity to lend to...
China’s City Stimulus May Bottom Top‑tier Housing Markets
China Daily: "A new wave of stimulus policies launched in the past week by key Chinese cities, including Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Tianjin and Wuhan, is expected to lower homebuying costs and boost market confidence, paving the way for the housing market...
Japanese Firms Favor Diplomacy After Past Supply Chain Shocks
Japanese firms that switched their supply chains due to geopolitical shocks in the past are more likely to support diplomacy to address supply chain disruptions over protectionism or diversification subsidies. https://t.co/7utQbiyzIX
Political Swaps Drive 38% of Central Bank Changes, Mostly Emerging
132 central bank governor transitions in 28 advanced and emerging economies from 2000 to 2024: of all transition, 38% were politically motivated; 48% in emerging markets, 13% in advanced economies. https://t.co/dijD9ZHSSx
Hormuz Closure Could Add 0.6% to 2026 Inflation
Even under a cautiously optimistic scenario in which the closure of the Strait of Hormuz lasts for 1 quarter, the surge in oil prices is expected to raise US headline inflation by 0.6 percentage points and core inflation by 0.2...
German Parents Fund Foreign Buffers, Boosting Own Leverage
When a host country raises its countercyclical capital buffer, parent companies in Germany step in & fully replace the lost funding through internal loans. Parents refinance this support by borrowing more at home — raising their own leverage & default...
Iran's Economy Lags Turkey After War and Sanctions
Iran & Turkey had similar GDP & GDP pc before 1979. By end of Iran-Iraq War in 1988, Iran's economy was 1/3rd of Turkey but gap nearly closed by 2001. They then grew largely in tandem until 2010 sanctions. Today...
China Curbs Demand as US Supply Stalls, Reshaping Oil Market
Supply and demand determine the oil price. If the Americans can't boost supply to keep prices low, then the Chinese know how to dampen demand. Superb insights in here: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-05-08/iran-war-china-s-invisible-hand-is-rebalancing-the-oil-market
China’s Covert Oil Import Cuts Cap Prices, Flatten Differentials
COLUMN: China is quietly slashing oil imports, an invisible hand that's rebalancing the market in the middle of the Hormuz closure. (The shift has not only capped benchmark oil prices, but also triggered a collapse in physical differentials) @Opinion https://t.co/GND1uXtbwV
Court Rejects Tariff Claim, Trade Deficit Not Crisis
Shocker: a 2026 trade deficit is not a 1974-style Balance of Payment crisis🤷♂️ 👉”Lawyers representing the businesses bringing the case argued that a trade deficit and a serious balance-of-payments crisis were not the same” ➡️ But probably very little impact on tariffs. ✍️Timothy...
Stablecoins and Money's Future at LatAm Forum
Follow live from 09:00 CET as I speak at the LatAm Economic Forum, organised by @BancoDeEspana. I will discuss stablecoins and the future of money. Watch here https://t.co/qunwAimIBw
He Keeps Backing Down on Tariff Threats
Has anyone kept track of how many times he’s climbed down from threats? And here I’m just talking about tariff threats. https://t.co/GyFi4wJPQo
US Beef Eyes China, Yet Faces Cheaper Aussie Competition
US beef producers hope Trump can secure them access back into China. On paper it looks good - plenty of space left in their import quota. But local execs say they're competing against cheaper alternatives like Australia plus local producers...
Thailand Ranks 3rd Happiest with Low Misery
In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index in @FortuneMagazine, Thailand ranks as the 3RD HAPPIEST COUNTRY out of 178 countries. This is thanks to their low unemployment and inflation paired with stable real GDP growth per capita of 2.5%. THAILAND = LOW MISERY...
China's Oil Imports Drop, Re‑exports Surge, Demand Stalls
China is importing less oil & re-exporting more. This one of the first genuinely bearish physical signals to emerge since the war began. @JavierBlas offers no satisfying explanations but I will China’s overproduction machine has hit a demand wall. https://t.co/snT1YW3WuM #oil #China #energy #economy...
US‑Iran Clash in Hormuz Threatens Global Oil Flow
🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran are fighting again in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has recently attacked ships and the US has hit back. This area moves 20% of the world’s oil every day. If the fighting gets...
Trump’s New Tariffs Declared Unconstitutional Despite Legal Loophole
Trump's tariffs—the ones he added because the last ones were ruled unconstitutional—were just ruled unconstitutional My crack team has discovered why. This law allows him to impose temporary tariffs to "deal with large and serious US balance-of-payments deficits." Here it is: https://t.co/UDa8Tp7STS
AI Capex Fuels Corning Growth; Buy Now
Macro: AI capex boosts US supply chains. Nvidia’s multi-$bn prepayment plus up to $3.2B equity option funds new Corning glass plants. Risks: execution, cyclical demand. Trade: buy Corning. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China’s Imports Trail Global Trade and GDP Growth
in volume terms China's imports have lagged both global trade and China's reported GDP growth bigly https://t.co/GytLVBfdJq
Truth Erased: US‑Iran Narratives Mask Ongoing Conflict
This is the new reality. The lines between fact and fiction, truth and lies, are not only blurred, they have been erased. I am reminded of Hans Christian Andersen’s classic tale, “The Emperor’s New Clothes”. But the current situation has gone...
Rial Rebounds Sharply From Lows Despite 10‑day Decline
The Iranian rial’s performance over the last few days: 1. Today, depreciated 0.5% against the USD. 2. Appreciated 9.1% vs. the USD from all-time lows 3 days ago. 3. In the last 10 days, depreciated 9.5% against the USD https://t.co/RcBXFmfctl
Data‑center Slowdown Warns of Broader Economic Weakness
Point72 on signaling a weakening consumer. They were bullish last year and sounding more cautious at the moment. AI spending is truly carrying the economy. My 2c: If/when we see a drop in data center buildout we can expect a weak...
Peter Harrell Nails
Hard to beat Peter Harrell's take on the Court of International Trade's ruling on the section 122 tariffs -- 1/ a few
Call Out China Threat, Drop “Imbalance” Rhetoric
Hauge to me and Pettis: "Don't hide behind the language of "imbalances." If you think China is a competitive threat and that wealthy nations should actively use industrial policy to keep it at bay, say so" I object to the idea...
Court Blocks New 10% Tariffs, Importers Remain Victorious
The Court of International Trade just blocked the new 10% tariffs that Trump admin put in place after the Supreme Court blocked the IEEPA tariffs. Importers stay winning.
Trump‑Xi Summit May Rival Nixon‑Mao 1972 Historic Meeting
.@tomfriedman: “The summit between President Trump and President Xi Jinping in Beijing next week could be the most significant encounter between American and Chinese leaders since Richard Nixon met Mao Zedong in Beijing in 1972.” https://t.co/AATXBhthnH
Court Rules Trump's 2026 Tariff Illegal Under Trade Law
Check, meet balance: federal judges found President Donald J. Trump had violated the law when he imposed a 10% tariff on most U.S. imports in February 2026. “In a split ruling, the Court of International Trade found that Trump had...
China's Dip‑buying Fuels Emerging Global Gold Rush
China continues to buy the dip in gold. A global gold rush is unfolding right in front of our eyes. https://t.co/mQgTbFf90L https://t.co/QRErTYJHa9
Biz Leaders Upset over White House CEO Role
American business leaders are frustrated over what they describe as mixed signals from the White House about the role CEOs will play in President Donald Trump’s upcoming trip to Beijing. via @_AriHawkins and @dlippman https://t.co/nYf9e559TE
UK Q1 Growth Looks Rosy, Yet Public Trust Declines
Figures next week are likely to paint a rosy picture for the UK economy in the first quarter. The trouble is that fewer and fewer people believe them. https://t.co/VLTbMGcrKu
Russia Sells Ruble, Buys Yuan to Curb Appreciation
Since the US-Israeli war on Iran, oil prices have SURGED & so has the value of the Russian ruble. To prevent the ruble from excessive strengthening, Russia is SELLING the ruble & BUYING foreign currency, primarily the Chinese yuan. https://t.co/zThMoq7cun
Ask How Systems Work, Not Who’s Winning
People often ask whether China or the West is “winning.” That’s the wrong question. The more useful question is: how do different systems work, and what trade-offs do they make? When you look at history, geopolitics, and economics together, you start to see...
Brazil Hits Record Soybean Exports, China Takes 69%
🇧🇷Brazil exported 16.7 million metric tons (615 mbu) of soybeans in April, a new all-time record. Brazil exported a record 40 mmt (1.48 bbu) in the first four months of 2026. Top destinations by share: 🇨🇳China 69% 🇪🇺EU 8% 🇹🇷Turkey 4% 🇹🇭Thailand 3% https://t.co/YKBbfHBknk
Canceling Buybacks Shifts Money From Share Demand to Real‑Economy Investment
I'm told focusing on the shift from share repurchase to capex is a "dumb argument" 101 It most certainly appears dumb if you don't understand the implication. Google cancelled its share repurchase from 60BN per year to zero to...
Korea's Stocks Surge 200% Over Past Year
If you're wondering why Korea is up 200% in the past year... via @DeutscheBank https://t.co/RzRnRQCUF2 https://t.co/dAFDIzNDQq
Iran, U.S. Mulling One‑Page Plan to Reopen Hormuz
NYT: Three senior Iranian officials say Tehran and the United States are discussing a one-page plan for both sides to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities for 30 days while they try to reach a comprehensive deal. https://t.co/X7quMi0g38
Oil Shock Persists: Tight Global Fuel Supplies for Months
Oil Shock Far From Over: Energy Giants Warn Global Fuel Supplies May Stay Tight for Months After Iran Deal. And the longer it takes to get a deal? https://t.co/sOpjmIj1ok
Resolving Iran Tensions to Revive Trade War Focus
How patriotic. Hopefully we will have resolved the US-Iran conflict by then so we can fully focus on the revival of the trade war headlines.
Milei's Dollarization Needed to Tame Inflation
As I’ve said since day one, if Milei failed to dollarize Argentina, he wouldn’t be able to control inflation. INFLATION = MILEI’S ACHILLES' HEEL. https://t.co/Fhu9f7yOmX
Biden Didn't Initiate Iran War Closing Hormuz Strait
Bro. Biden didn’t start a War with Iran that closed the Strait of Hormuz stranding 20% of the world’s oil shipments.
Global Debt Surges to $353 Trillion, US Influence Wanes
Global debt hits record of near $353 trillion, with signs of move away from US https://t.co/ODETyZsMTB