The Impact of Brexit on Foreign-Born Workers in the UK

Why It Matters

The shift reshapes skill supply and wage dynamics, influencing policy debates on immigration and labour shortages. Employers may need to adjust recruitment strategies as EU talent declines and non‑EU sources become more prominent.

Key Takeaways

• EU-origin workers fell ~785k post‑Brexit.
• Non‑EU workers rose ~992k by 2024.
• Net foreign‑born workforce increase ~207k (0.62%).
• Visa tightening likely reduces migration after 2025.
• Synthetic difference‑in‑differences isolates Brexit impact.

Pulse Analysis

Brexit’s labour market impact has long been eclipsed by trade concerns, yet the decision to leave the EU fundamentally altered migration flows. By pairing UK employment data with a synthetic control of EU15 and EEA economies, the researchers sidestepped unreliable immigration statistics and the UK Labour Force Survey’s sampling issues. This methodological rigor provides a clearer picture of how policy shocks—first the referendum’s uncertainty and later the 2021 points‑based system—translated into measurable employment outcomes for foreign‑born workers.

The analysis reveals a stark divergence between EU‑origin and non‑EU‑origin employees. EU‑origin labour shrank by roughly 785,000 positions, a shortfall that would have grown by 30% in a counterfactual scenario without Brexit. In contrast, non‑EU‑origin employment surged by nearly one million, driven by a linear increase of about 70,000 new workers each quarter after 2021. The net effect—a modest 207,000 additional foreign‑born workers—represents only 0.62% of the total UK workforce, underscoring that the two large shifts largely offset each other.

Looking ahead, tightening visa rules and a cooling labour‑market demand suggest that the post‑Brexit migration boost may recede, with forecasts pointing to net migration below 100,000 by 2026. Policymakers must balance ageing demographics against political pressures to curb immigration, recognizing that Brexit’s legacy is more about composition than volume. Employers, especially in sectors reliant on EU talent, will need to diversify recruitment pipelines and invest in training to mitigate the loss of EU‑origin skills while capitalising on emerging non‑EU talent pools.