Morocco’s OCP to Cut Production in 2Q

Why It Matters

The capacity reduction tightens global fertilizer supplies, likely pushing prices higher and prompting buyers to seek alternative sources. It also highlights the vulnerability of fertilizer producers to geopolitical and logistical shocks.

Key Takeaways

• Up to 30% of Q2 capacity affected by maintenance
• Sulphur and ammonia shortages linked to Strait of Hormuz closure
• Exported 4.4 mn t DAP, 2.71 mn t MAP, 2.98 mn t TSP
• Middle East supplied 52% of Morocco's sulphur imports last year
• Bad weather earlier disrupted Moroccan ports, curbing output

Pulse Analysis

OCP Group, the world’s largest phosphate rock producer, underpins roughly a third of global fertilizer supply. Based in Morocco, the company processes over 30 million tonnes of phosphate rock annually, converting it into key nitrogen‑phosphate blends such as diammonium phosphate (DAP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and triple superphosphate (TSP). Its scale gives OCP considerable influence over commodity pricing and agricultural input availability, especially in Europe, Africa and the Middle East where demand for high‑yield crops remains robust. Recent capital projects aim to boost downstream capacity by 2028.

The company announced an accelerated maintenance schedule that will sideline up to 30 % of its second‑quarter capacity. While OCP did not disclose the specific plants, the timing coincides with tightening supplies of sulphur and ammonia—critical inputs derived largely from Middle‑Eastern imports. The recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked roughly half of Morocco’s sulphur shipments, prompting a precautionary curtailment to avoid over‑extending limited feedstock. Combined with earlier port disruptions caused by adverse weather, the operational slowdown is poised to tighten global fertilizer inventories. The maintenance window is expected to run through June, aligning with seasonal demand lull.

Analysts expect the capacity dip to translate into modest price gains for DAP, MAP and TSP, especially in regions already grappling with supply bottlenecks. Short‑term buyers may turn to alternative producers in China or Russia, but those sources face their own logistical constraints, limiting substitution. In the longer run, OCP’s move underscores the strategic risk of over‑reliance on Middle‑Eastern raw material corridors, prompting investors to watch for diversification initiatives, such as new sulphur contracts or on‑site ammonia generation, that could mitigate future disruptions. Market analysts have already adjusted forecasts, indicating a 2‑3% price uplift by year‑end.