How Trump’s Iran War Could Make the World More Reliant on Coal

Why It Matters

The resurgence of coal threatens recent decarbonisation gains and could lock in higher emissions, reshaping energy policy and climate targets worldwide.

Key Takeaways

• Coal consumption up 1.3 bn tons since 2020, now 8.8 bn.
• Iran war prompts nations to restart coal plants.
• Renewables face supply‑chain, cost hurdles from conflict.
• Europe, Asia delay coal phase‑out amid energy insecurity.
• US coal ~9% of energy, renewables slightly higher.

Pulse Analysis

The Iran conflict has reignited a classic energy security dilemma: when geopolitics choke traditional oil and gas routes, governments turn to the most readily available fuel—coal. Historically, crises such as the 1970s oil shocks and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted similar rebounds in coal use, and the current surge mirrors those patterns. By adding roughly 1.3 billion tons of coal to global consumption, the war not only raises emissions but also reshapes power‑generation portfolios in regions heavily dependent on imported hydrocarbons, from South Asia to Western Europe.

Renewable energy, while essential for long‑term decarbonisation, faces acute short‑term constraints amplified by the war. Critical minerals like lithium, cobalt and rare earths—largely sourced from China—have become geopolitical leverage points, and soaring inflation and interest rates have driven up the cost of capital for new wind and solar projects. In contrast, coal plants can be brought online quickly and financed at lower risk, making them an attractive stop‑gap for nations seeking to avoid blackouts and price spikes. This dynamic underscores the vulnerability of clean‑energy supply chains to external shocks.

The policy fallout could be profound. Delays in coal‑phase‑out timelines, such as Italy’s 13‑year postponement and Germany’s contemplation of re‑activating idle units, risk eroding the momentum of international climate accords. Yet the situation also creates a strategic opening for governments to double down on domestic renewable investment, diversify mineral supply sources, and implement carbon‑pricing mechanisms that internalise coal’s hidden costs. Balancing immediate energy security with long‑term climate goals will define the next decade of global energy policy.